Discussion
Slarti650 said:
I'm not denying that prices are up on manuals but I feel its a bubble and it's time limited.
I sat down with McKinsey to run through their 10 year outlook and the landscape is changing dramatically. Without going into too much detail, the market for manuals is as small as the number of cars. The market will shrink but the number of cars will mostly remain the same.
Autos have their place in the world but it isn't in a sports car IMO. At what point did driving and changing gear manually become too much for us....who doesn't love a bit of heel toe action? The manufacturers would love for us to not have a choice because it increases their margin due to greater economies of scale, reduced emissions and 0-60 times. Jesus, even Lotus are getting in on the act. When Ferrari introduced the F1 paddle, I'm sure lots of people thought it was really cool to drive around changing gear like Ayrton Senna, but that technology was genuinely useful in a race car, on a race track. The reality in a road car is very different. It has removed a very important level of interaction between man and machine. That's why manuals are trading over their tt equivalents and I see no reason why that will change anytime soon. I sat down with McKinsey to run through their 10 year outlook and the landscape is changing dramatically. Without going into too much detail, the market for manuals is as small as the number of cars. The market will shrink but the number of cars will mostly remain the same.
Edited by P.Griffin on Thursday 9th February 14:26
P.Griffin said:
Autos have their place in the world but it isn't in a sports car IMO. At what point did driving and changing gear manually become too much for us....who doesn't love a bit of heel toe action? The manufacturers would love for us to not have a choice because it increases their margin due to greater economies of scale, reduced emissions and 0-60 times. Jesus, even Lotus are getting in on the act. When Ferrari introduced the F1 paddle, I'm sure lots of people thought it was really cool to drive around changing gear like Ayrton Senna, but that technology was genuinely useful in a race car, on a race track. The reality in a road car is very different. It has removed a very important level of interaction between man and machine. That's why manuals are trading over their tt equivalents and I see no reason why that will change anytime soon.
A DBS isn't that type of car, plus, most people don't even know what heelEdited by P.Griffin on Thursday 9th February 14:26
And toe means. There are of course people today that appreciate this but racing tracks are more full of paddle
Shifting super cars than manual aston Martins. When we're dead there won't be many taking our place.
AMTony said:
vpr said:
AMTony said:
vpr said:
Buy because you want one.
Personally I think they're a lovely car to look at but not particularly dynamic to drive.
Can't understand why you say not particularly dynamic to drive - what are you comparing this to?Personally I think they're a lovely car to look at but not particularly dynamic to drive.
I think that its down to choice at the end of the day and with that in mind we are all correct
You can hussle an SLS at quite a rate though the twisties and the car seems to shrink around you. The engine placed far back in the body maybe why.
As a place to sit and a car to look at the DBS wins.
Slarti650 said:
I'm not denying that prices are up on manuals but I feel its a bubble and it's time limited.
I sat down with McKinsey to run through their 10 year outlook and the landscape is changing dramatically. Without going into too much detail, the market for manuals is as small as the number of cars. The market will shrink but the number of cars will mostly remain the same.
Haha anyone that sits with McKinsey to discuss a ten year outlook, let alone 'theirs', needs to get some fresh air and drive their car a bit more often. With equal irony I'm sure they did not factor in the variables relating to who buys new cars versus who buys cars they liked ten years ago. The latter have more propensity (McKinsey word) to buy manual as they are 'enthusiasts'. So new car buyers - 90% auto; enthusiast buyers - 70% manual. I have some scatter diagrams showing that trend on most classics of the last 50 years; and more projections somewhere in my consultant case.I sat down with McKinsey to run through their 10 year outlook and the landscape is changing dramatically. Without going into too much detail, the market for manuals is as small as the number of cars. The market will shrink but the number of cars will mostly remain the same.
MarkM3Evoplus said:
Bad experience or do you just prefer the Vanquish in your profile?
I love my Vanquish......I loved my dbs.......had great times in it...but I just like to move on.....am not a depreciation guru and don't worry about it....I drive my cars...the dbs had 54 k on it when I sold it......the vanquish will probably be more than that...but hey ho...you are a long time dead.....Mind you....the S is looking good....watch thi,s space....
tonyhall38 said:
I love my Vanquish......I loved my dbs.......had great times in it...but I just like to move on.....am not a depreciation guru and don't worry about it....I drive my cars...the dbs had 54 k on it when I sold it......the vanquish will probably be more than that...but hey ho...you are a long time dead.....
Mind you....the S is looking good....watch thi,s space....
That's the most sensible post I've ever read from you Tony, completely agree with you. Mind you....the S is looking good....watch thi,s space....
The whole future values thing just grates on me if I'm honest. I blame Porsche
Slarti650 said:
A DBS isn't that type of car, plus, most people don't even know what heel
And toe means. There are of course people today that appreciate this but racing tracks are more full of paddle
Shifting super cars than manual aston Martins. When we're dead there won't be many taking our place.
True, but this isn't going to happen in 10-years, as hinted by some Mckinsey guys. I believe a market for manuals will be there for a long time, unless there will be strong political pressure to ban combustion-engined vehicles from the streets across the entire world (which is A) difficult to predict and B) will affect both Manuals and Autos anyway).And toe means. There are of course people today that appreciate this but racing tracks are more full of paddle
Shifting super cars than manual aston Martins. When we're dead there won't be many taking our place.
What are Mckinsey's assumptions? (macro and political-views aside)
- median age of a manual car buyer (regardless of car value)? i.e. the "demand"
- % of demand in/will fall in the >70s yrs old-segment? i.e. "normalising the demand" > assuming, for the sake of simplicity, that their demand for manuals will drop significantly even if they are petrolheads
- "supply" of manual cars in the market compared to "demand"?
I believe for the next 10-years the "demand" (core, excluding tails) for Manuals surely outpace supply (hence my hypothesis is: supply of manuals decrease faster than demand in the next 10yrs).
Edited by FFM on Thursday 9th February 18:57
spyker138 said:
Slarti650 said:
I'm not denying that prices are up on manuals but I feel its a bubble and it's time limited.
I sat down with McKinsey to run through their 10 year outlook and the landscape is changing dramatically. Without going into too much detail, the market for manuals is as small as the number of cars. The market will shrink but the number of cars will mostly remain the same.
Haha anyone that sits with McKinsey to discuss a ten year outlook, let alone 'theirs', needs to get some fresh air and drive their car a bit more often. With equal irony I'm sure they did not factor in the variables relating to who buys new cars versus who buys cars they liked ten years ago. The latter have more propensity (McKinsey word) to buy manual as they are 'enthusiasts'. So new car buyers - 90% auto; enthusiast buyers - 70% manual. I have some scatter diagrams showing that trend on most classics of the last 50 years; and more projections somewhere in my consultant case.I sat down with McKinsey to run through their 10 year outlook and the landscape is changing dramatically. Without going into too much detail, the market for manuals is as small as the number of cars. The market will shrink but the number of cars will mostly remain the same.
spyker138 said:
Haha anyone that sits with McKinsey to discuss a ten year outlook, let alone 'theirs', needs to get some fresh air and drive their car a bit more often.
I have some scatter diagrams showing that trend on most classics of the last 50 years; and more projections somewhere in my consultant case.
I have some scatter diagrams showing that trend on most classics of the last 50 years; and more projections somewhere in my consultant case.
During the 1970s / 1980s, demand for E-types and DBs was easily met by supply, so prices were at their lowest.
At least we knew that afterwards.
All we need to know therefore, is do you have a scatter diagram in your consultant case, revealing which cars few people want now, but many people will want in the future?
Jon39 said:
During the 1970s / 1980s, demand for E-types and DBs was easily met by supply, so prices were at their lowest.
At least we knew that afterwards.
All we need to know therefore, is do you have a scatter diagram in your consultant case, revealing which cars few people want now, but many people will want in the future?
Purso said:
That's staggering. The Ultimate's were £10k or so over standard a couple of years ago. Good grief.Bincenzo said:
cayman-black said:
Last year they where around £130k. What a beauty that one is though 2k miles as new.
It is, I wonder what it cost new?I would guess that car was around that money new. I remember them being launched and every dealer had at least one "stock" car. Hagley had three
Bincenzo said:
Purso said:
That's staggering. The Ultimate's were £10k or so over standard a couple of years ago. Good grief.
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