AML - Stock Market Listing

[Jon39]

ajr550 said:

That knighthood for Andy Palmer that nobody wanted to support must be getting closer !

My guess is that Dr. Palmer would want to show that he and his team, were responsible for sustaining profitability, before any business honours are considered.

A decade or so ago, two new models were introduced, there were sales and production records, and the Company was profitable.
No gong for Dr. Bez.

The tricky part is always when the 'honeymoon' period for each mainstream new model ends, and then sales begin to decline. For the DB9 that occurred in year 3 after launch, and for the Vantage it was year 4, although unfortunately a recession probably had an influence on the timing of that.

[RobDown]

Totally agree

The promising thing here though is that there’s a steady stream of new model launches planned (one a year) so hopefully AML can avoid that famine/feast routine

critical one though is the DBX (PH is going to hate it/hope it’s not launched in lime). Get that one right and it will be Saint Palmer not just Sir...

[RL17]

What about Arancio Orange as a launch colour?

[Emilio Largo]

Jon39 said:

A decade or so ago, two new models were introduced, there were sales and production records, and the Company was profitable.
No gong for Dr. Bez.

The tricky part is always when the 'honeymoon' period for each mainstream new model ends, and then sales begin to decline. For the DB9 that occurred in year 3 after launch, and for the Vantage it was year 4, although unfortunately a recession probably had an influence on the timing of that.

Wise words, Jon. Good to hear this on here as I never really understood why Bez-bashing is quite popular on this forum. Even if it should be true that he wasn´t as likeable as Dr Palmer, he was the man who built the cars we all love and cherish so much. And yes, I think there may have been some sort of worldwide economic crisis around 2008/2009 that possibly had an influence on the company´s welfare ....

[Jon39]

RobDown said:

Totally agree

The promising thing here though is that there’s a steady stream of new model launches planned (one a year) so hopefully AML can avoid that famine/feast routine

critical one though is the DBX (PH is going to hate it/hope it’s not launched in lime). Get that one right and it will be Saint Palmer not just Sir...

Yes Rob, if the DBX sells as planned (was 7,000 pa mentioned), then that will be the masterstroke.

I have been thinking about the annual introduction of new models, as a way to keep the early sales momentum flowing.
It might not as straight forward as it seems. Presumably as before with the DB9 and Vantage, it is the DB11 and Vantage that will be the two best seller mainstream models, so those sales will be the important ones. It sounds as though most of the other models will be far more expensive, therefore one would expect lower sales numbers. There should of course be the potential, for a greater amount of profit on each car. The Taraf is at a high price point, but to be a profitable overall project, possibly not enough sold.

Edited by Jon39 on Wednesday 28th February 16:46

[ds666]

Dr Bez was responsible for the VH architecture and stopped the mid( rear) engined car .

[jonby]

Jon39 said:

I have been thinking about the annual introduction of new models, as a way to keep the early sales momentum flowing.
It might not as straight forward as it seems. Presumably as before with the DB9 and Vantage, it is the DB11 and Vantage that will be the two best seller mainstream models, so those sales will be the important ones

yes and no

db11 and vantage will one imagines be the volume sellers, along with DBX. But db11 and vantage have soft tops (one just out, one still to come), vantage has a manual to come, both presumably have amr versions to come and/or higher performance versions. That won't keep a model fresh for 12-13 yrs (the typical length of the outgoing models) but it can for a 7 yr cycle.

Remember it's now 2 years since DB11 was launched at Geneva, so theoretically only 5 years til we see DB11 replacement at Geneva 2021

Add to vantage/DB11 the specials, the forthcoming DBS/vanquish replacement, the mid engined car/s, the lagonda/s, etc - that's more than enough over a 7 yr cycle providing they do indeed start replacing them after 7 yrs

Plus with momentum and cars staying fresh, even easier to fund and sell out hyper cars. Exciting times

[anonymous-user]

HBradley said:

He's already a Companion of The Most Distinguished Order of St Michael and St George (CMG) for his work at Nissan.
The logical next step is adding Knight Commander (KCMG) which has a nice ring to it!
If he continues the way he's going, he'll thoroughly deserve it!

Nothing personal to AP, but I don't get why so many (highly paid) people get honours for doing their day job.

[Zod]

soofsayer said:

HBradley said:

He's already a Companion of The Most Distinguished Order of St Michael and St George (CMG) for his work at Nissan.
The logical next step is adding Knight Commander (KCMG) which has a nice ring to it!
If he continues the way he's going, he'll thoroughly deserve it!

Nothing personal to AP, but I don't get why so many (highly paid) people get honours for doing their day job.

If you want to complain about that, look first at the Civil Service!

[AMDBSVNick]

jonby said:

yes and no

db11 and vantage will one imagines be the volume sellers, along with DBX. But db11 and vantage have soft tops (one just out, one still to come), vantage has a manual to come, both presumably have amr versions to come and/or higher performance versions. That won't keep a model fresh for 12-13 yrs (the typical length of the outgoing models) but it can for a 7 yr cycle.

Remember it's now 2 years since DB11 was launched at Geneva, so theoretically only 5 years til we see DB11 replacement at Geneva 2021

Add to vantage/DB11 the specials, the forthcoming DBS/vanquish replacement, the mid engined car/s, the lagonda/s, etc - that's more than enough over a 7 yr cycle providing they do indeed start replacing them after 7 yrs

Plus with momentum and cars staying fresh, even easier to fund and sell out hyper cars. Exciting times

Strip out Valkyrie deposits, Vulcan and all the "Zag specials" plus run out stuff and I wonder how the figures would look Sustainable???

[jonby]

AMDBSVNick said:

jonby said:

yes and no

db11 and vantage will one imagines be the volume sellers, along with DBX. But db11 and vantage have soft tops (one just out, one still to come), vantage has a manual to come, both presumably have amr versions to come and/or higher performance versions. That won't keep a model fresh for 12-13 yrs (the typical length of the outgoing models) but it can for a 7 yr cycle.

Remember it's now 2 years since DB11 was launched at Geneva, so theoretically only 5 years til we see DB11 replacement at Geneva 2021

Add to vantage/DB11 the specials, the forthcoming DBS/vanquish replacement, the mid engined car/s, the lagonda/s, etc - that's more than enough over a 7 yr cycle providing they do indeed start replacing them after 7 yrs

Plus with momentum and cars staying fresh, even easier to fund and sell out hyper cars. Exciting times

Strip out Valkyrie deposits, Vulcan and all the "Zag specials" plus run out stuff and I wonder how the figures would look Sustainable???

Its a good question and the truth is of course I don't know. But I;d guess far less than half the income for the total run of 325 odd vanq zags is in last years figures surely ? Plus there is no reason to think they can't keep making big money specials - cars like zag couldn't exist without the 'donor car but conversely, if they make some money on the bread and butter cars alone, they can make big money on the back of those cars with the specials. But of course the real potential biggy is DBX

[RobDown]

I could be wrong on this. But I have it in my head that AML only records the sale in its income statement when the order is confirmed, not at the deposit stage.

So if memory serves me correctly on that Valkyrie and some of the Zag sales shouldn't be in the figures (yet)

Edited to add: just checked the 2016 accounts, they book the sales normally when the car is ready to be dispatched to the Dealer

Edited by RobDown on Wednesday 28th February 22:48

[Bobajobbob]

ajr550 said:

That knighthood for Andy Palmer that nobody wanted to support must be getting closer !

Attending the Presidents Club dinner can’t have helped the cause.

[Bincenzo]

Bobajobbob said:

ajr550 said:

That knighthood for Andy Palmer that nobody wanted to support must be getting closer !

Attending the Presidents Club dinner can’t have helped the cause.

He didn’t.

[Bobajobbob]

I stand corrected. It was reported in the press somewhere as an "Andy Palmer" was on the list.

[AMDBSVNick]

RobDown said:

I could be wrong on this. But I have it in my head that AML only records the sale in its income statement when the order is confirmed, not at the deposit stage.

So if memory serves me correctly on that Valkyrie and some of the Zag sales shouldn't be in the figures (yet)

Edited to add: just checked the 2016 accounts, they book the sales normally when the car is ready to be dispatched to the Dealer

This is fantastic news then, Rob

[Zod]

AMDBSVNick said:

RobDown said:

I could be wrong on this. But I have it in my head that AML only records the sale in its income statement when the order is confirmed, not at the deposit stage.

So if memory serves me correctly on that Valkyrie and some of the Zag sales shouldn't be in the figures (yet)

Edited to add: just checked the 2016 accounts, they book the sales normally when the car is ready to be dispatched to the Dealer

This is fantastic news then, Rob

I'm not an accountant, but I'd be amazed if you could recognise the full purchase price as revenue on receipt of a deposit.

[AMDBSVNick]

Zod said:

AMDBSVNick said:

RobDown said:

I could be wrong on this. But I have it in my head that AML only records the sale in its income statement when the order is confirmed, not at the deposit stage.

So if memory serves me correctly on that Valkyrie and some of the Zag sales shouldn't be in the figures (yet)

Edited to add: just checked the 2016 accounts, they book the sales normally when the car is ready to be dispatched to the Dealer

This is fantastic news then, Rob

I'm not an accountant, but I'd be amazed if you could recognise the full purchase price as revenue on receipt of a deposit.

Agreed but I doubt the deposit on Valkyrie is £5,000.00

I also assume a lot of the Zag's have been delivered?

[RobDown]

Deposit on a Valkyrie is GBP500k

I would guess most of the Zags won’t have been delivered by the closing of these accounts; the Volantes have just started in the last few weeks, I’ve yet to see a Speedster in the wild on Instagram. And they haven’t even built the prototype Shooting Brake as far as I’m aware

So there’s a nice block of very high margin sales to come (albeit I have absolutely no idea about how Valkyrie will be accounted, I believe someone suggested it’s being built as a J/V? So may not appear in revenues at all)

[jonby]

AMDBSVNick said:

Zod said:

AMDBSVNick said:

RobDown said:

I could be wrong on this. But I have it in my head that AML only records the sale in its income statement when the order is confirmed, not at the deposit stage.

So if memory serves me correctly on that Valkyrie and some of the Zag sales shouldn't be in the figures (yet)

Edited to add: just checked the 2016 accounts, they book the sales normally when the car is ready to be dispatched to the Dealer

This is fantastic news then, Rob

I'm not an accountant, but I'd be amazed if you could recognise the full purchase price as revenue on receipt of a deposit.

Agreed but I doubt the deposit on Valkyrie is £5,000.00

I also assume a lot of the Zag's have been delivered?

There are 99 each of coupe, volante & shooting brake and then from memory, 25 or so speedsters

speedster and shooting brake aren't being produced quite yet. Most if not all volantes are 2018 prodcution. So in rough terms, most or all of the coupes and perhaps at most, a handful of volantes will be 2017 production/delivery dates