AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
Valkyrie being built in sufficient numbers so that it should be profitable (probably in JV) in 2019. But there's a lot to get right with it.
Need new Vantage to sell in numbers/volumes to justify increased costs and staff at Gaydon new hires (& more staff to be located at Red Bull) and also DBX to be a success to support new St Athan set up and development costs for next and next etc.
Given DBX and strong AM and now AMR brands plus all the specials (and Rapide - a name previously used by Lagonda a few times) I wonder whether Lagonda brand strong enough in long run.
Need new Vantage to sell in numbers/volumes to justify increased costs and staff at Gaydon new hires (& more staff to be located at Red Bull) and also DBX to be a success to support new St Athan set up and development costs for next and next etc.
Given DBX and strong AM and now AMR brands plus all the specials (and Rapide - a name previously used by Lagonda a few times) I wonder whether Lagonda brand strong enough in long run.
The Chinese motor manufacturer Geely has acquired almost 10 per cent of Daimler for about $9bn, becoming its largest shareholder in the latest sign of the global ambitions of the group.
This indirectly gives them a stake in Aston Martin of nearly 0.5%.
Geely already own Volvo, the London Taxi Cab maker, and a 51% stake in Lotus.
Li Shufu founded Geely in 1986 as a refrigerator maker, with money borrowed from his family. He transformed the company into a success, selling inexpensive products to Chinese consumers.
He only began car manufacturing in 2002.
Together with electric and autonomous, are we seeing the begining of major changes, in the long-standing established order of motor manufacturers.
We do look at maps of the world with UK and western Europe at the centre. If look at world map with Asia centred it's slightly different.
More than half world live in a smallish circle (compared to rest of world) in SE Asia
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/...
and huge growth middle classes there over next 10-12 years will increase shift.
Tata from India bought Tetley tea in 2000, and JLR in 2008 (both arms of which have done pretty well although diesel engines figure heavily in current line up).
UB sold to Yildiz ( a turkish conglomerate) in 2014 - so McVities and Jaffa cakes owned there.
continuing shift worth a thought over tea and biscuits!
More than half world live in a smallish circle (compared to rest of world) in SE Asia
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/...
and huge growth middle classes there over next 10-12 years will increase shift.
Tata from India bought Tetley tea in 2000, and JLR in 2008 (both arms of which have done pretty well although diesel engines figure heavily in current line up).
UB sold to Yildiz ( a turkish conglomerate) in 2014 - so McVities and Jaffa cakes owned there.
continuing shift worth a thought over tea and biscuits!
No announcement yet, but here is some fresh market talk.
https://news.sky.com/story/aston-martin-lines-up-b...
RobDown said:
I struggle to believe they will go for a sole listing in New York, the natural home for this one should be London.
And a dual listing seems unnecessary (cost wise) at this point.
Might be fun to put a bit of money into it
And a dual listing seems unnecessary (cost wise) at this point.
Might be fun to put a bit of money into it
Kleinman - his catchphrase is always, "Yes, that's right Ian".
Agree, 'Hand made in England, listed in USA', does not have the same ring to it.
A bit of money being the operative word. Just 18 cars sold during February in UK, but supposedly worth £5 billion.
It is the sort of shareholding where I like to frame the share certificate, but they will probably refuse to issue certificates.
See you at the AGM, Rob.
Would like a London listing too but there is a case for NY......
New York first and London six months later if you sell the global brand/global company better listing on NYSE patter - higher fees as well
US is main market & Andrea Bonomi of Investindustrial born in New York too
Ferrari went NY before Milan
London especially FTSE 100 very bank, energy and mining orientated - not much glamour in dropping into top of FTSE 250
Think all main listed car makers have a NY listing too
edit - Lazards appointed December - is tomorrows 11.15 CET announcement going to be a car?
New York first and London six months later if you sell the global brand/global company better listing on NYSE patter - higher fees as well
US is main market & Andrea Bonomi of Investindustrial born in New York too
Ferrari went NY before Milan
London especially FTSE 100 very bank, energy and mining orientated - not much glamour in dropping into top of FTSE 250
Think all main listed car makers have a NY listing too
edit - Lazards appointed December - is tomorrows 11.15 CET announcement going to be a car?
HBradley said:
As was mentioned in the article, It’s also Brexit-proof.
You have lost me with that, Humphrey.
The Company is domiciled in the UK.
Extract from article;
' While the UK car market has been beset by Brexit-related jitters, a decision to list in New York would be unrelated to the UK's departure from the European Union, the source added. '
Brexit is not really a material factor for listing. We value stocks based on future prospects and fundamentals and those aren’t materially driven by the listing location.
The bigger issue will be the target investor base (and prestige). As Reg said earlier most car manufacturers have a US listing and the best way of Aston getting US investor attention is to be listed there.
But the benefit is in my view marginal and I’d hope that AML would go for a UK listing to begin with, partly because it’s the natural home here, partly because it would give UK PMs a nice alternative to miners and banks
Oh and at GBP5Bn it would just squeeze into the FTSE 100 thanks to a couple of stocks scheduled to be demoted
And at that point I better “recuse” myself
The bigger issue will be the target investor base (and prestige). As Reg said earlier most car manufacturers have a US listing and the best way of Aston getting US investor attention is to be listed there.
But the benefit is in my view marginal and I’d hope that AML would go for a UK listing to begin with, partly because it’s the natural home here, partly because it would give UK PMs a nice alternative to miners and banks
Oh and at GBP5Bn it would just squeeze into the FTSE 100 thanks to a couple of stocks scheduled to be demoted
And at that point I better “recuse” myself
Brexit should not be a factor for UK IPOs, but at the moment it seems to be. Most of the IPOs currently active in the UK market are for non-UK companies. UK businesses are shy of pushing ahead at the moment, but there are signs of companies looking at trying in September or November.
RobDown said:
We value stocks based on future prospects and fundamentals, and those aren’t materially driven by the listing location.
Agree with that, so;
Present fundamentals do not equal £5,000,000,000. The 2017 (and probably 2018) P/E number would be too big for the column.
The last sale was I think at £368 million, and record production of over 7,000 was achieved soon after that.
The big IPO sell must therefore be purely on future prospects, ie. DBX.
They really will be able to use that frequently used motor manufacturers saying, in the case of the DBX,
'this is the most important car in the history of the company'.
Thinking about the 2018 financial year, UK DB11 sales are slowing (don't know worldwide), and the new Vantage production will only be for half of the year.
Perhaps therefore, if profits growth is modest in 2018, an early flotation would be better.
Having said that though, do profits forecasts still normally appear in an IPO prospectus?
Edited by Jon39 on Tuesday 6th March 10:48
Jon39 said:
RobDown said:
We value stocks based on future prospects and fundamentals, and those aren’t materially driven by the listing location.
Agree with that, so;
Present fundamentals do not equal £5,000,000,000. The 2017 (and probably 2018) P/E number would be too big for the column.
The last sale was I think at £368 million, and record production of over 7,000 was achieved soon after that.
The big IPO sell must therefore be purely on future prospects, ie. DBX.
They really will be able to use that frequently used motor manufacturers saying, in the case of the DBX,
'this is the most important car in the history of the company'.
Thinking about the 2018 financial year, UK DB11 sales are slowing (don't know worldwide), and the new Vantage production will only be for half of the year.
Perhaps therefore, if profits growth is modest in 2018, an early flotation would be better.
Having said that though, do profits forecasts still normally appear in an IPO prospectus?
Edited by Jon39 on Tuesday 6th March 10:48
Jon39 said:
You have lost me with that, Humphrey.
The Company is domiciled in the UK.
Extract from article;
' While the UK car market has been beset by Brexit-related jitters, a decision to list in New York would be unrelated to the UK's departure from the European Union, the source added. '
Zod said:
Profit forecasts rarely appear in IPO prospectuses because of liability concerns. Forecasts get to the market through the "independent" connected analysts' research.
Thank you Zod.
I spotted your use of quotation marks.
If there is to be a float, then perhaps an early one will work best for the sellers.
I meant to refer to the marked decrease in net assets. Have not seen the 2017 accounts yet.
Presumably that reflects all of the new model development.
Perhaps an IPO will be an exit for the private equity investor, but also an opportunity for equity fund raising for the Company.
The present amount of debt in relation to profits worries me. Any comments about that?
Jon39 said:
Zod said:
Profit forecasts rarely appear in IPO prospectuses because of liability concerns. Forecasts get to the market through the "independent" connected analysts' research.
Thank you Zod.
I spotted your use of quotation marks.
If there is to be a float, then perhaps an early one will work best for the sellers.
I meant to refer to the marked decrease in net assets. Have not seen the 2017 accounts yet.
Presumably that reflects all of the new model development.
Perhaps an IPO will be an exit for the private equity investor, but also an opportunity for equity fund raising for the Company.
The present amount of debt in relation to profits worries me. Any comments about that?
HBradley said:
Jon, unless I've mis-interpreted the quote, the fact that the offering is in NY would insulate it from Brexit? Or am I wrong?
Don't think which way they list is Brexit impacted - NY first and then London or London first and NY later. Or if an issue it's tiny and City related rather than tariffs and resourcing loads of components to get UK content from 45% or so to over 60% etc for origin rules.HBradley said:
Jon, unless I've mis-interpreted the quote, the fact that the offering is in NY would insulate it from Brexit?
Or am I wrong?
Or am I wrong?
When a UK company has a share listing in USA, it is just where the market place is, for shareholders to buy and sell their shares.
If the company is situated and domiciled in the UK, then all the normal UK rules, laws and conditions continue to apply. Next door might be a London quoted business, but HMRC still want their take from both firms
Whether in or out of the EU, various trade tariffs apply. Some of the present EU tariffs, on finished goods entering the EU, would presumably cease upon exit.
Where the Referendum vote did help AML for a while, was the currency rate. When the exchange rate (£ to $) went immediately down from about 1.45 to about 1.25 following the vote, the profit on each car sold overseas increased (assuming unaltered prices). Recently the exchange rate has been back up near 1.40 again, so that unexpected benefit did not last long. A relief to the UK importers though.
Seems in the wealthy USA tri-state area they are having trouble shifting cars. I keep getting special lease deals on DB11 - for 2017 year cars which are now at least 12-18 months old... not sure that is a great indicator of the brand strength. My local dealer moaned at length at the prospect of having to sell the Vantage price increase (to be fair I asked him what he thought). Just another factoid.
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