Discussion
outnumbered said:
5 rounds left and a 23 point gap... So if Rossi finishes one place behind Lorenzo in four races, and once place ahead of him in one race, he'll win. (I think). Ignoring MM of course, but I think he's probably too far back unless one of the others crashes/disasters out of another round.
As much as I'd love Rossi to win another, I think Lorenzo is more likely.
I can't see it coming to that - MM has a big part to play in the title, and I can see him taking a couple of wins at least before the season is over. That makes it more difficult for JL, because the points haul between second/third (Assuming JL is always in front of VR) is only 4 points, which with only 5 races to go, isn't enough. As much as I'd love Rossi to win another, I think Lorenzo is more likely.
You can be pretty certain that Rossi will do whatever is required now to be no more than 1 place behind JL, will be happy to help MM take a win over JL to limit the point gain of JL and then there's the real chance of more races affected by rain - In the rain, it is likely that VR will be finishing in front of JL, whose head has never been right since his spell of big crashes in the wet - And who can blame him, because a couple of them were pretty big.
Oh and there is always the chance in the rain that JL's visor will steam up!!
Only just managed to watch this, managed to avoid hearing the results so it was not spoiled for me.
What a race! Great rides from Smith (brave staying out on slicks) and Redding after that crash.
Ride of the day has got to be Baz tho, give him a decent bike and he will shock a few people
What a race! Great rides from Smith (brave staying out on slicks) and Redding after that crash.
Ride of the day has got to be Baz tho, give him a decent bike and he will shock a few people
As soon as it is mathematically impossible for MM93 to win the title he will win all the remaining races. We have one left in Sept followed by 3 fly away rounds and the last in Valencia.
I predict that with 3 still to go MM93 will be more than 75 points behind whomever is leading [VR46] and at that point he will throw caution to the wind from then on and clear off at the front.
Vale will always try to win if he can, as will Lorenzo however both of these riders also understand when 2nd or 3rd is the best that they can achieve on the day.
The next few rounds will see a bit of cat & mouse between Lorenzo trying to escape at the front and Valentino sitting in 3rd watching what effect Marc has on Jorge by hounding him on every corner.
Vale will look to stay close and pick up the pieces and to mug whomever is in 2nd place or nick a win if its possible.
Wylie old fox vs the rest.
I would love for him to win a 10th title and then retire on the spot.
A
I predict that with 3 still to go MM93 will be more than 75 points behind whomever is leading [VR46] and at that point he will throw caution to the wind from then on and clear off at the front.
Vale will always try to win if he can, as will Lorenzo however both of these riders also understand when 2nd or 3rd is the best that they can achieve on the day.
The next few rounds will see a bit of cat & mouse between Lorenzo trying to escape at the front and Valentino sitting in 3rd watching what effect Marc has on Jorge by hounding him on every corner.
Vale will look to stay close and pick up the pieces and to mug whomever is in 2nd place or nick a win if its possible.
Wylie old fox vs the rest.
I would love for him to win a 10th title and then retire on the spot.
A
Chipchap said:
As soon as it is mathematically impossible for MM93 to win the title he will win all the remaining races. We have one left in Sept followed by 3 fly away rounds and the last in Valencia.
I predict that with 3 still to go MM93 will be more than 75 points behind whomever is leading [VR46] and at that point he will throw caution to the wind from then on and clear off at the front.
Vale will always try to win if he can, as will Lorenzo however both of these riders also understand when 2nd or 3rd is the best that they can achieve on the day.
The next few rounds will see a bit of cat & mouse between Lorenzo trying to escape at the front and Valentino sitting in 3rd watching what effect Marc has on Jorge by hounding him on every corner.
Vale will look to stay close and pick up the pieces and to mug whomever is in 2nd place or nick a win if its possible.
Wylie old fox vs the rest.
I would love for him to win a 10th title and then retire on the spot.
A
For Marquez to be 75+ points behind after the next two rounds will need Rossi to take 12 poinypts out of him in the next two rounds. That's a tough ask if Marquez stays on the bike. I predict that with 3 still to go MM93 will be more than 75 points behind whomever is leading [VR46] and at that point he will throw caution to the wind from then on and clear off at the front.
Vale will always try to win if he can, as will Lorenzo however both of these riders also understand when 2nd or 3rd is the best that they can achieve on the day.
The next few rounds will see a bit of cat & mouse between Lorenzo trying to escape at the front and Valentino sitting in 3rd watching what effect Marc has on Jorge by hounding him on every corner.
Vale will look to stay close and pick up the pieces and to mug whomever is in 2nd place or nick a win if its possible.
Wylie old fox vs the rest.
I would love for him to win a 10th title and then retire on the spot.
A
I'm not trying to predict this anymore.
It seems a lot of people wrote Rossi off after Czech and here we are 23 points in the lead.
JL is on great form (in the dry)
Rossi has closed the gap to JL in the dry and has an advantage if conditions are poor (qualifying improvement and generally getting quicker and reducing the gap through the weekends)
MM is looking very, very fast again but still too many errors (he's thrown away a lot of points with the win or bin approach, cooler head and he'd be favourite)
This really could go to any of them - which is fantastic.
It seems a lot of people wrote Rossi off after Czech and here we are 23 points in the lead.
JL is on great form (in the dry)
Rossi has closed the gap to JL in the dry and has an advantage if conditions are poor (qualifying improvement and generally getting quicker and reducing the gap through the weekends)
MM is looking very, very fast again but still too many errors (he's thrown away a lot of points with the win or bin approach, cooler head and he'd be favourite)
This really could go to any of them - which is fantastic.
Steve Bass said:
Personally, I think this weekend highlighted the serious 
in JL's armour.
When he's allowed to get to the front and set the pace, he's almost peerless.
But he seems to got to pieces when he's having the race dictated to him. Sunday was a perfect example. off like a stabbed rat yet come a change in circumstances and having to follow someone, manage pace AND a race strategy, he seems to lose it a bit.
.
I said that about 5 races ago and there was a f in JL's armour. When he's allowed to get to the front and set the pace, he's almost peerless.
But he seems to got to pieces when he's having the race dictated to him. Sunday was a perfect example. off like a stabbed rat yet come a change in circumstances and having to follow someone, manage pace AND a race strategy, he seems to lose it a bit.
.
king riot. Reardy Mister said:
Steve Bass said:
Personally, I think this weekend highlighted the serious in JL's armour.
When he's allowed to get to the front and set the pace, he's almost peerless.
But he seems to got to pieces when he's having the race dictated to him. Sunday was a perfect example. off like a stabbed rat yet come a change in circumstances and having to follow someone, manage pace AND a race strategy, he seems to lose it a bit.
.
I said that about 5 races ago and there was a f in JL's armour. When he's allowed to get to the front and set the pace, he's almost peerless.
But he seems to got to pieces when he's having the race dictated to him. Sunday was a perfect example. off like a stabbed rat yet come a change in circumstances and having to follow someone, manage pace AND a race strategy, he seems to lose it a bit.
.
king riot. JL does look vulnerable when his back is against the wall. JL's speed is incredible, especially his consistent lap times. But is he a true racer??? On the latest evidence you'd have to question his racing stones. And not just on this season. Go back years and he's seemed to waver when put to the test
MM seems to go balls deep in the Win it or Bin it approach. VR seems to have the measure of them both and seems able to capitalise on their foibles and minimise his losses.
I reckon VR will squeak the Championship by plying a canny game of strategy and 3rd or 2nd places and ready to pounce when able. Will we see dodgy weather for any of the remaining rounds??? That could be the decider....
Edited by Steve Bass on Monday 14th September 22:58
Steve Bass said:
Reardy Mister said:
Steve Bass said:
Personally, I think this weekend highlighted the serious in JL's armour.
When he's allowed to get to the front and set the pace, he's almost peerless.
But he seems to got to pieces when he's having the race dictated to him. Sunday was a perfect example. off like a stabbed rat yet come a change in circumstances and having to follow someone, manage pace AND a race strategy, he seems to lose it a bit.
.
I said that about 5 races ago and there was a f in JL's armour. When he's allowed to get to the front and set the pace, he's almost peerless.
But he seems to got to pieces when he's having the race dictated to him. Sunday was a perfect example. off like a stabbed rat yet come a change in circumstances and having to follow someone, manage pace AND a race strategy, he seems to lose it a bit.
.
king riot. JL does look vulnerable when his back is against the wall. MM seems to go balls deep in the Win it or Bin it approach. VR seems to have the measure of them both and seems able to capitalise on their foibles and minimise his losses.
I reckon VR will squeak the Championship by plying a canny game of strategy and 3rd or 2nd places and ready to pounce when able. Will we see dodgy weather for any of the remaining rounds??? That could be the decider....
I'd love to see Marquez get back on a run and put himself in contention , although my money would still be on lorenzo.
egor110 said:
Isn't it great though that at this point in the season it's still all to play for.
I'd love to see Marquez get back on a run and put himself in contention , although my money would still be on lorenzo.
It's fantastic!I'd love to see Marquez get back on a run and put himself in contention , although my money would still be on lorenzo.
But just for s
ts and giggles..If MM wins the next 5 races.. 184 + (5x25) 125 = 309
If JL comes 2nd in the next 5 races .. 224 + (5x20) 100 = 324
If VR comes 3rd in the next 5 races .. 247 + (5x16) 80 = 327
Obviously it all goes to cock if JL wins and VR pulls a 3rd anywhere. Now tell me this isn't going to be a nail biter!!
Edited by Steve Bass on Monday 14th September 23:13
vetrof said:
I think Rossi did a great job on Lorenzo in that race.
Looked to me like Rossi couldn't run with MM & JL in the dry. So controlling when they went back onto slicks was a smart move. He gambled that JL would ignore his pit board and shadow him. If it meant they both rejoined the race in the minor points, then better he only loses 1 or 2 points to JL than possibly 9.
The fact that JL crashed makes Rossi's late change back to slicks look like a big mistake, but pretty sure he was expecting JL to finish in front of him.
I've only just watched the race, and something along these lines occurred to me. Rossi is a wiley old fox and I wouldn't put it past him to try to drag Lorenzo down with him like this.Looked to me like Rossi couldn't run with MM & JL in the dry. So controlling when they went back onto slicks was a smart move. He gambled that JL would ignore his pit board and shadow him. If it meant they both rejoined the race in the minor points, then better he only loses 1 or 2 points to JL than possibly 9.
The fact that JL crashed makes Rossi's late change back to slicks look like a big mistake, but pretty sure he was expecting JL to finish in front of him.
Cracking race and bravo Smith and Redding
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