Filtering - I don't want to be a c**t

[skahigh]

rufusgti said:

I know that section of well. When I'm on my bike I would be overtaking almost constantly down the whole stretch down to the BBC studios. It's very slow, seems even worse now they've added a bus lane.

Except bikes can use the bus lane now which is nice

[Tribal Chestnut]

I'm firmly in the 'common sense' camp here. If it's safe and I'm not going to cause a major inconvenience to anyone else, or get into trouble, then I'm all for it.

[Dr Jekyll]

WaferThinHam said:

bennyb24 said:

I always like to think of the numbers fwiw - it's your daily commute...... How long are you going to be doing it ? Say 10 years .... So 250 days ish by tens years is 2500 times - then I think, that was perhaps a little hasty / naughty - can I get away with that 2500 times - what are my odds ???? Is it really 2500-1 ? Sooner or later you'll hit your limit and it'll be the one that has you off..... Just the warped way my mind works.

Irrational.

If you're flipping a coin and get fifty heads in a row, what's your odds of getting another head on the next flip?

The point is that the more flips you do, the more likely you are to get a head sooner or later. Perfectly rational.

[Steve Bass]

Dr Jekyll said:

WaferThinHam said:

bennyb24 said:

I always like to think of the numbers fwiw - it's your daily commute...... How long are you going to be doing it ? Say 10 years .... So 250 days ish by tens years is 2500 times - then I think, that was perhaps a little hasty / naughty - can I get away with that 2500 times - what are my odds ???? Is it really 2500-1 ? Sooner or later you'll hit your limit and it'll be the one that has you off..... Just the warped way my mind works.

Irrational.

If you're flipping a coin and get fifty heads in a row, what's your odds of getting another head on the next flip?

The point is that the more flips you do, the more likely you are to get a head sooner or later. Perfectly rational.

Nope.
Every flip is unique and is not affected by the previous. So you could have a thousand flips go heads, the odds on the next going heads are still 50:50
Same as a commute. Todays commute is not affected by yesterday's.

[iwilson]

Dr Jekyll said:

The point is that the more flips you do, the more likely you are to get a head sooner or later. Perfectly rational.

Actually that's not correct. The coin or whatever you're flipping has no memory. The odds of getting a head after flipping 1,000 tails in a row are still only 50/50... Pedantic I know, but kind of interesting.

Edit: What he said above

[iwilson]

Dr Jekyll said:

The point is that the more flips you do, the more likely you are to get a head sooner or later. Perfectly rational.

Actually that's not correct. The coin or whatever you're flipping has no memory. The odds of getting a head after flipping 1,000 tails in a row are still only 50/50... Pedantic I know, but kind of interesting.

Edit: What he said above

Edited by iwilson on Friday 5th February 08:24

[Jamessd]

You're misinterpreting the point that bennyb24 is making, which is that when considering in advance the sum of his future commutes, the more commutes that will take place the more likely he is to have a bad outcome.

If he will only ever commute once, then the likelihood of at least one 'heads' is 50%

If he will commute twice then the likelihood is 75% (he could flip heads-tails, heads-heads, tails-heads or if he's lucky then tails-tails)

If three times then 87.5%

...and so on.

Ultimately, if he anticipates engaging in his risky behaviour a sufficient number of times, then he can consider himself almost guaranteed to come a cropper at some point.

[pozi]

What has it come to when a thread descends into an argument over the statistics of flipping a coin?

[lindrup119]

[skahigh]

Well this morning there was almost no traffic, I love Fridays!

Any advice on how to help myself relax in heavy traffic and keep my posture? Will it just come with more experience?

[sjtscott]

skahigh said:

Well this morning there was almost no traffic, I love Fridays!

Any advice on how to help myself relax in heavy traffic and keep my posture? Will it just come with more experience?

Don't try to run before you can walk.. take your time it will just come with experience.
Remember the awesome flowchart put together on the other thread too!

BTW sorry to be pedantic but compared to some of us you don't have traffic anywhere near the levels we have in London
Come spend a month commuting by bike peak time into/outof central London! You'll learn very quickly this way.

[Fleegle]

skahigh said:

Well this morning there was almost no traffic, I love Fridays!

Any advice on how to help myself relax in heavy traffic and keep my posture? Will it just come with more experience?

I found taking the coathanger out of my jacket helped my posture

[andburg]

snorky782 said:

Fleegle said:

marshalla said:

Highway Code said:

Rule 129
Double white lines where the line nearest you is solid. This means you MUST NOT cross or straddle it unless it is safe and you need to enter adjoining premises or a side road. You may cross the line if necessary, provided the road is clear, to pass a stationary vehicle, or overtake a pedal cycle, horse or road maintenance vehicle, if they are travelling at 10 mph (16 km/h) or less.

While that may be legal in those circumstances, I would still refrain from doing it. It could be habit forming if its your regular route only to be caught out with a cop arguing the traffic was travelling at 11mph. They can be arses like that!!

That's my opinion in the pot

I doubt marshalla's defence would work at all in court. The traffic must be absolutely static, every single vehicle (excluding the specific three named ones) that you overtake must not be moving at all. The 10mph is exclusively for the pushbike, horse or road maintenance vehicle and nothing else. If they are travelling at 10.1mph then you're screwed.

I believe the key word there is necessary.
an abandoned car or very slow moving vehicle causing mass tailbacks may be necessary but I don't see overtaking temporarily stopped traffic the same way.

You don't need to cross the white lines as the traffic will move when possible.

Mind has gone a bit blank but I'm sure in another thread somewhere possibly phone related saying that while sat in traffic and stopped your are still driving. I see a connection in the belief here, the cars may be stopped but are still being driven, they are not parked obstructing the carriageway.

[skahigh]

Fleegle said:

skahigh said:

Well this morning there was almost no traffic, I love Fridays!

Any advice on how to help myself relax in heavy traffic and keep my posture? Will it just come with more experience?

I found taking the coathanger out of my jacket helped my posture

I knew there was something I was forgetting!

[black-k1]

Tribal Chestnut said:

I'm firmly in the 'common sense' camp here. If it's safe and I'm not going to cause a major inconvenience to anyone else, or get into trouble, then I'm all for it.

I do the same. If it’s safe, the traffic is stopped or very slow and I can see far enough ahead then I’ll cross a solid line or even go the “wrong side” of a small keep left island. I know I run the risk of getting nicked if seen but, like breaking the speed limit, I only do it when I can justify to myself that it’s safe and accept that risk.

[xpc316e]

I would say that your tense posture is a clue that you are doing something that your inner spidey sense finds a bit too risky. That leaves you with a couple of options: you can expose yourself to the risk so often that you are eventually comfortable with that level of danger, or you could listen to yourself and minimise the risk you expose yourself to by not doing it. I reckon that it is a bit like playing with fire: sooner or later, you will get burnt, but you don't know how badly you will be burnt.

Filtering is a high-risk operation as far as I am concerned. My former trade saw me often dealing with the results of it going wrong. I do it only when I think that I have balanced things very much towards me. If I really need to get to my destination a few minutes sooner, then I will consider getting up a little earlier.

[Mr2Mike]

bogie said:

The 10mph rule is real/practiced and taught on advanced training as "OK"; on my RoSPA test I filtered just over double whites alongside stationary traffic. Actually if you dont take this opportunity you lose marks on the test for not understanding where/when you can "make progress safely"

I'm genuinely surprised that ROSPA advocate this, it seems a grey area at best and it certainly feels to me as though that law was intended to deal with obstructions such as parked or broken down vehicles rather than queuing traffic.

That said I have filtered over double whites on a few occasions, but I always feel like I'm risking an easy fine and points if there happens to be an unmarked car in the queue so it's not something I do regularly.

[SteelerSE]

I mentally have a "three strikes and I'm out" rule. What I mean by that is that in an hours commute into London if I've done something that was a little too close to the bone then I charge myself a strike. If I've hit three strikes then I'm riding like a tt and need to pull over and cool off and understand why because I'm obviously doing something wrong.

I've never had more than one strike because it's amazing what having that mental check does for you. But this morning I added a strike as I did a maneuveur that in hindsight (as in within a couple of seconds I knew that I'd misjudged) wasn't good and I think if I was the driver of the car involved then I would have been pissed off. Strike. And instantly I'm riding differently.

[skahigh]

SteelerSE said:

I mentally have a "three strikes and I'm out" rule. What I mean by that is that in an hours commute into London if I've done something that was a little too close to the bone then I charge myself a strike. If I've hit three strikes then I'm riding like a tt and need to pull over and cool off and understand why because I'm obviously doing something wrong.

I've never had more than one strike because it's amazing what having that mental check does for you. But this morning I added a strike as I did a maneuveur that in hindsight (as in within a couple of seconds I knew that I'd misjudged) wasn't good and I think if I was the driver of the car involved then I would have been pissed off. Strike. And instantly I'm riding differently.

Great idea, thanks!

[bogie]

Mr2Mike said:

bogie said:

The 10mph rule is real/practiced and taught on advanced training as "OK"; on my RoSPA test I filtered just over double whites alongside stationary traffic. Actually if you dont take this opportunity you lose marks on the test for not understanding where/when you can "make progress safely"

I'm genuinely surprised that ROSPA advocate this, it seems a grey area at best and it certainly feels to me as though that law was intended to deal with obstructions such as parked or broken down vehicles rather than queuing traffic.

That said I have filtered over double whites on a few occasions, but I always feel like I'm risking an easy fine and points if there happens to be an unmarked car in the queue so it's not something I do regularly.

IAM and Police riders do the same. If the traffic is genuinely stationary and there are double whites and you can pass safely at a few mph, its fine. I have ridden/followed Police riders doing the same. I have also filtered past stationary Police cars on double whites.

Its risk versus reward; sit in queue for 30mins or trickle past at 10mph down the middle, so long as its safe, its "making progress"

On some country roads in Lincs, during summer months, there are often miles of tailbacks when you get close to the seaside resorts. Some of the country roads are double whites and if you sit in traffic you just get passed by other bikers who are happy to filter on double whites. You have to be careful that you stop overtaking on the double whites when the traffic starts moving ...thats when you see some riders using their own interpretation of the rules. There are often marked/unmarked Police in the queues so I do play it safe. Its just not worth the penalty/hassle