Filtering - I don't want to be a c**t
Discussion
sc0tt said:
SteelerSE said:
If I've hit three strikes then I'm riding like a t
t and need to pull over and cool off and understand why because I'm obviously doing something wrong.
You really do that?t and need to pull over and cool off and understand why because I'm obviously doing something wrong.
SteelerSE said:
sc0tt said:
SteelerSE said:
If I've hit three strikes then I'm riding like a tt and need to pull over and cool off and understand why because I'm obviously doing something wrong.
You really do that?t and need to pull over and cool off and understand why because I'm obviously doing something wrong.Where is loon when you need him. So you never had to do that, "but that's what you do".
I don't evaulate my riding. I just ride.
Sometimes I send myself a stern letter should i go over the speed limit.
Oh and I didn't have chocolate for 2 days when I lowsided.
Curious about views on the inside/hard shoulder?
Last year there was a massive 20+ mile tailback on the M6 (riding back to Scotland from London) and while I started filtering between lanes I was getting no-where fast as every so often you'd come across a gap that just wasn't big enough (and I need a big gap!) or some sod would intentionally close the gap. So you'd have to ride at a snail's pace with the traffic and then squirt past as soon as a gap appeared.
Not really practical to go down the outside of the traffic as often there's a drop-off into the central reservation. So ended up toodling up the white-line on the hard shoulder, and pretty careful not to go into the hard shoulder proper.
But given the comments in the thread that it's OK to cross a solid line at 10mph past stationary traffic, how do folks feel that stacks up when the white line is the hard should? I'm still thinking 'on the line' is OK, but over it is a no-no.
Last year there was a massive 20+ mile tailback on the M6 (riding back to Scotland from London) and while I started filtering between lanes I was getting no-where fast as every so often you'd come across a gap that just wasn't big enough (and I need a big gap!) or some sod would intentionally close the gap. So you'd have to ride at a snail's pace with the traffic and then squirt past as soon as a gap appeared.
Not really practical to go down the outside of the traffic as often there's a drop-off into the central reservation. So ended up toodling up the white-line on the hard shoulder, and pretty careful not to go into the hard shoulder proper.
But given the comments in the thread that it's OK to cross a solid line at 10mph past stationary traffic, how do folks feel that stacks up when the white line is the hard should? I'm still thinking 'on the line' is OK, but over it is a no-no.
Steve Bass said:
Dr Jekyll said:
WaferThinHam said:
bennyb24 said:
I always like to think of the numbers fwiw - it's your daily commute...... How long are you going to be doing it ? Say 10 years .... So 250 days ish by tens years is 2500 times - then I think, that was perhaps a little hasty / naughty - can I get away with that 2500 times - what are my odds ???? Is it really 2500-1 ? Sooner or later you'll hit your limit and it'll be the one that has you off..... Just the warped way my mind works.
Irrational. If you're flipping a coin and get fifty heads in a row, what's your odds of getting another head on the next flip?
Every flip is unique and is not affected by the previous. So you could have a thousand flips go heads, the odds on the next going heads are still 50:50
Same as a commute. Todays commute is not affected by yesterday's.
Of course the probability of the next flip going heads is 0.5, but in a row of 50 flips the probability of at least one head is approx. 0.9999999999999999.
Jamessd said:
You're misinterpreting the point that bennyb24 is making, which is that when considering in advance the sum of his future commutes, the more commutes that will take place the more likely he is to have a bad outcome.
If he will only ever commute once, then the likelihood of at least one 'heads' is 50%
If he will commute twice then the likelihood is 75% (he could flip heads-tails, heads-heads, tails-heads or if he's lucky then tails-tails)
If three times then 87.5%
...and so on.
Ultimately, if he anticipates engaging in his risky behaviour a sufficient number of times, then he can consider himself almost guaranteed to come a cropper at some point.
Exactly my point.If he will only ever commute once, then the likelihood of at least one 'heads' is 50%
If he will commute twice then the likelihood is 75% (he could flip heads-tails, heads-heads, tails-heads or if he's lucky then tails-tails)
If three times then 87.5%
...and so on.
Ultimately, if he anticipates engaging in his risky behaviour a sufficient number of times, then he can consider himself almost guaranteed to come a cropper at some point.
Dr Jekyll said:
Steve Bass said:
Dr Jekyll said:
WaferThinHam said:
bennyb24 said:
I always like to think of the numbers fwiw - it's your daily commute...... How long are you going to be doing it ? Say 10 years .... So 250 days ish by tens years is 2500 times - then I think, that was perhaps a little hasty / naughty - can I get away with that 2500 times - what are my odds ???? Is it really 2500-1 ? Sooner or later you'll hit your limit and it'll be the one that has you off..... Just the warped way my mind works.
Irrational. If you're flipping a coin and get fifty heads in a row, what's your odds of getting another head on the next flip?
Every flip is unique and is not affected by the previous. So you could have a thousand flips go heads, the odds on the next going heads are still 50:50
Same as a commute. Todays commute is not affected by yesterday's.
Of course the probability of the next flip going heads is 0.5, but in a row of 50 flips the probability of at least one head is approx. 0.9999999999999999.
You may think it is, but it's still 50% chance
sc0tt said:
Dr Jekyll said:
Steve Bass said:
Dr Jekyll said:
WaferThinHam said:
bennyb24 said:
I always like to think of the numbers fwiw - it's your daily commute...... How long are you going to be doing it ? Say 10 years .... So 250 days ish by tens years is 2500 times - then I think, that was perhaps a little hasty / naughty - can I get away with that 2500 times - what are my odds ???? Is it really 2500-1 ? Sooner or later you'll hit your limit and it'll be the one that has you off..... Just the warped way my mind works.
Irrational. If you're flipping a coin and get fifty heads in a row, what's your odds of getting another head on the next flip?
Every flip is unique and is not affected by the previous. So you could have a thousand flips go heads, the odds on the next going heads are still 50:50
Same as a commute. Todays commute is not affected by yesterday's.
Of course the probability of the next flip going heads is 0.5, but in a row of 50 flips the probability of at least one head is approx. 0.9999999999999999.
You may think it is, but it's still 50% chance
ksIt's a 50% chance of getting a head on the next flip, but a 99.99999999999999% chance of getting a head somewhere in the sequence of 50.
Dr Jekyll said:
bks
It's a 50% chance of getting a head on the next flip, but a 99.99999999999999% chance of getting a head somewhere in the sequence of 50.
100x(1-[0.5^50]) = 99.999999999999911182158029987477% ksIt's a 50% chance of getting a head on the next flip, but a 99.99999999999999% chance of getting a head somewhere in the sequence of 50.
Except of course this probability model is utter b
ks, but I understand your point!sc0tt said:
No it isn't.
You may think it is, but it's still 50% chance
No, each individual flip has a 50% chance, but if you do 50 flips the chance of getting at least one head is extremely high.You may think it is, but it's still 50% chance
It's probably even worse in reality as most people tend to get a bit blasé on roads they use every single working day.
Mr2Mike said:
sc0tt said:
No it isn't.
You may think it is, but it's still 50% chance
No, each individual flip has a 50% chance, but if you do 50 flips the chance of getting at least one head is extremely high.You may think it is, but it's still 50% chance
It's probably even worse in reality as most people tend to get a bit blasé on roads they use every single working day.
It is still 50%
I've been riding same length of time, few more miles (but more for fun that commuting) but I'm the other way, I often look back and think, should I have taken the chance. I think this is partly because my main riding buddy is mental given half a chance. 
I dont think I'd be tempted to cross white lines though, I need my licence too much to be risking damage to it for something so simple. In fairness, if the cars were positioned nicely I think you could get past without crossing.
I dont think I'd be tempted to cross white lines though, I need my licence too much to be risking damage to it for something so simple. In fairness, if the cars were positioned nicely I think you could get past without crossing. Jamessd said:
You're misinterpreting the point that bennyb24 is making, which is that when considering in advance the sum of his future commutes, the more commutes that will take place the more likely he is to have a bad outcome.
If he will only ever commute once, then the likelihood of at least one 'heads' is 50%
If he will commute twice then the likelihood is 75% (he could flip heads-tails, heads-heads, tails-heads or if he's lucky then tails-tails)
If three times then 87.5%
...and so on.
I know this is epically pedantic but you are so wrong it hurts.If he will only ever commute once, then the likelihood of at least one 'heads' is 50%
If he will commute twice then the likelihood is 75% (he could flip heads-tails, heads-heads, tails-heads or if he's lucky then tails-tails)
If three times then 87.5%
...and so on.
Each day he can flip head OR tails, so a 50:50
The next day he can flip heads OR tails, again a 50:50
Using your maths by day 10 he's got a 99.9% chance of crashing and would be wise to give up altogether.
You cannot accumulate the "heads" youve flip to build up a likelihood.
Ride like a t
t, yes, you'll come a cropper, but maybe step away from the maths 
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