Filtering - I don't want to be a c**t
Discussion
sc0tt said:
Mr2Mike said:
sc0tt said:
No it isn't.
You may think it is, but it's still 50% chance
No, each individual flip has a 50% chance, but if you do 50 flips the chance of getting at least one head is extremely high.You may think it is, but it's still 50% chance
It's probably even worse in reality as most people tend to get a bit blasé on roads they use every single working day.
It is still 50%
Likewise, if you just happen to come across a random crazed nutter who just happens not to see you or just happens to almost run you off the road, every time you get out on a bike, then likely there is a lot more to it than chance.
Steve Bass said:
I know this is epically pedantic but you are so wrong it hurts.
Each day he can flip head OR tails, so a 50:50
The next day he can flip heads OR tails, again a 50:50
Using your maths by day 10 he's got a 99.9% chance of crashing and would be wise to give up altogether.
You cannot accumulate the "heads" youve flip to build up a likelihood.
Ride like a t
t, yes, you'll come a cropper, but maybe step away from the maths 
You're not understanding what is being said. They're not saying that historic results effect future probabilities, they're saying that if a sufficient number of future events are held a certain result is guaranteed. Each day he can flip head OR tails, so a 50:50
The next day he can flip heads OR tails, again a 50:50
Using your maths by day 10 he's got a 99.9% chance of crashing and would be wise to give up altogether.
You cannot accumulate the "heads" youve flip to build up a likelihood.
Ride like a t
t, yes, you'll come a cropper, but maybe step away from the maths So in this example, what was stated is that if a coin is flipped ten times, there will be a 99.9% chance at least one result was a head.
I have been riding, on and off, since 1975. I returned to commuting on an MSX125 in 2013. Initially, I had an issue with filtering but now only do it when traffic is stationary and lights are on red. Once traffic moves, nobody will be expecting it.
I also cross double whites, when necessary, again provided the traffic is largely stationary, I have sufficient forward vision to see if traffic is coming and I have seen where I can pull across if something appears.
I also cross double whites, when necessary, again provided the traffic is largely stationary, I have sufficient forward vision to see if traffic is coming and I have seen where I can pull across if something appears.
LuS1fer said:
Initially, I had an issue with filtering but now only do it when traffic is stationary and lights are on red. Once traffic moves, nobody will be expecting it.
I disagree with you there. Once the four wheeled traffic is stationary there is the tendency for people to assume that everyone is stationary. That's when pedestrians nip across and passengers open doors. I prefer the traffic to be moving slowly. anonymous said:
[redacted]
Brilliant. Initially, I thought it was underpowered but after considering a 650, I thought it actually does everything I need, 130 to the gallon, less than a fiver to fill and 16 quid to tax, 80 quid to insure and the 125 has loosened up considerably after 5000 miles.The only downsides are no weather protection, you get the full spray effect, a small screen would be nice, the chain stretches like knicker elastic so needs regular adjustment and the lights are sh*t for back lanes. I have Heath Robinsoned a cure for the latter with a plastic tube wedged between the bars, strapped to which I have one of those 5000 lumen pedal bike lights with a rechargeable battery pack which sits next to the ignition key. Fair lights up the night now and you can prevent blinding oncoming motorists by holding your glove in front of it or rotating it down.
LuS1fer said:
Brilliant. Initially, I thought it was underpowered but after considering a 650, I thought it actually does everything I need, 130 to the gallon, less than a fiver to fill and 16 quid to tax, 80 quid to insure and the 125 has loosened up considerably after 5000 miles.
The only downsides are no weather protection, you get the full spray effect, a small screen would be nice, the chain stretches like knicker elastic so needs regular adjustment and the lights are sh*t for back lanes. I have Heath Robinsoned a cure for the latter with a plastic tube wedged between the bars, strapped to which I have one of those 5000 lumen pedal bike lights with a rechargeable battery pack which sits next to the ignition key. Fair lights up the night now and you can prevent blinding oncoming motorists by holding your glove in front of it or rotating it down.
Take a look at what I did on my YBR, I've also put a single light and switch on my Sprint ST. The lights are about £25 a pair now.The only downsides are no weather protection, you get the full spray effect, a small screen would be nice, the chain stretches like knicker elastic so needs regular adjustment and the lights are sh*t for back lanes. I have Heath Robinsoned a cure for the latter with a plastic tube wedged between the bars, strapped to which I have one of those 5000 lumen pedal bike lights with a rechargeable battery pack which sits next to the ignition key. Fair lights up the night now and you can prevent blinding oncoming motorists by holding your glove in front of it or rotating it down.
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
CaptainSlow said:
You're not understanding what is being said. They're not saying that historic results effect future probabilities, they're saying that if a sufficient number of future events are held a certain result is guaranteed.
So in this example, what was stated is that if a coin is flipped ten times, there will be a 99.9% chance at least one result was a head.
No, i'm understanding perfectly.So in this example, what was stated is that if a coin is flipped ten times, there will be a 99.9% chance at least one result was a head.
In the context of the OP, using the alalogy of a coin toss is ridiculous.
a coin toss has only 2 possible outcomes, neither of which we can influence. Heads OR tails. End of.
To suggest that the more you ride the higher the chances of coming a cropper is subject to a similar " inevitability" is idiotic.
If you truly believe that, when is the point at which the "odds of a crash" just don't work in your favour due to the statistical probability? After 100 rides? How about a thousand? A hundred thousdand maybe? surely after a hundred thousand rides the likelyhood of a crash is so high if it hasn't happened by then you'd sell the bike and live in a bunker?
But no, every trip, WE as the rider can influence to a degree the events and subsequent outcomes around us, as well as the fundamental ramdom "chaos" nature of the undertaking.
Ride like a t
t all the time and yep, you'll probably come a cropper. Make the odd ttish manoever and learn? Those odds go down. Be observant and decisive in your riding and they fall even further. never ride and they fall to zero. The point is there's far more in play than simple statistical probability. And to ride thinking the inevitable must be coming due to that probability is the worst way to ride of all.
CaptainSlow said:
It isn't "after", these are forward looking probabilities. All other things being equal, the more you ride the more likely you'll be involved in an accident. Anyhow, we digress.
Again, no. far too many variables in play to make such a sweeping statement. And of course they're forward looking. yesteday has no bearing on today.But we don't actually digress. Look at the OP and the 2500:1 "odds" of crashing that he postualted were the likelyhood of an incident in his mind.
- Edit*
bennyb24 said:
I always like to think of the numbers fwiw - it's your daily commute...... How long are you going to be doing it ? Say 10 years .... So 250 days ish by tens years is 2500 times - then I think, that was perhaps a little hasty / naughty - can I get away with that 2500 times - what are my odds ???? Is it really 2500-1 ? Sooner or later you'll hit your limit and it'll be the one that has you off..... Just the warped way my mind works.
Edited by Steve Bass on Saturday 6th February 11:06
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