How long would the EU last post Brexit?
Poll: How long would the EU last post Brexit?
Total Members Polled: 239
Discussion
digimeistter said:
Hypothetical question, but could the EU survive losing it's third largest contributor, considering a high proportion of member Countries have struggling economies.
Bear in mind that while France is the second largest gross contributor into EU coffers, after Germany (perhaps that is why they believe that they should have as much say as Germany in how the EU is run and in what direction it will go?) the EU was set up so that they could nip round to the back door, and take a large proportion of what they put in, back out again via the CAP, Thus making the UK the second greatest net contributor into EU coffers.France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of f
k all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.
If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.
While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.
k all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.
While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.
ATG said:
France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.
If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.
While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.
Careful! You're not allowed to use logic in discussing the EU on here!k all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.
While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.
ATG said:
France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.
If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.
While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.
Bookmarked for a few years time.k all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.
While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.
digimeistter said:
Agreed but surely that is unsustainable, especially when Greece goes pop, which it will.
Well Greece is in need of a further bail out and is negotiating it now if it doesn't then as like last summer the debt which is expiring will default. Given TTIP and the € continuous issue/impossible to resolve without federal taxation "Im oout"
Between 1 and 5 years after that it will become just a trade group and nothing else.
We have to leave to precipitate that much needed change of role, if we stay before long we'll be involved in an incresingly violent sectarian civil war. We're best out of that. Churchill wanted a United States of Europe as it was good for the mainland to go that way, trouble is it was a daft idea from the very start, it ignored the huge histories of each member 'state'.
We have to leave to precipitate that much needed change of role, if we stay before long we'll be involved in an incresingly violent sectarian civil war. We're best out of that. Churchill wanted a United States of Europe as it was good for the mainland to go that way, trouble is it was a daft idea from the very start, it ignored the huge histories of each member 'state'.
ATG said:
France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.
If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.
While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.
That will explain the dozens of EU politicos & bureaucrats from France, Germany and beyond who are more than happy for us to leave and certainly haven't issued any post Brexit threats, as we are such insignificant contributors and we'd be no loss to them, at all. Just buttons as you say. Glad you've cleared that up for us.k all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.
While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.
So France & Germany, being the big two Euro countries, should actually be encouraging us to leave, so that the Eurozone can expand and we can stop interfering with their integrationalist policies? That doesn't appear to be the case though, does it?
Axionknight said:
It won't collapse should we leave, it might even help them on the path towards a federal Europe since they wont have a nay sayer on the fringes casting doubt over such things.
Good luck to'em I say.
Good luck to'em I say.
The EU is and has been a basket case for years now. Nothing it does is in the interests of others. It is no more than a self-gratifying idea of a few, for the few, and not for the majority. What else could anything be that is run by the unelected?
Will it survive a post Brexit?
More to the point will it survive without!!!
ATG said:
France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.
Why compare their joint GDP with our EU contributions? Comparing contributions with ours not have the same impact?k all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU. The way I look at it is 2 indebted nations having to cough up more money (that they don't have) to try and keep the EU agenda alive. All whilst trying to sell it to increasingly sceptical populations.
They cannot sort out Greece's issues, how they will make the French and Germans 'integrate' further is a whole new raft of problems way beyond what Greece is currently.
dandarez said:
Axionknight said:
It won't collapse should we leave, it might even help them on the path towards a federal Europe since they wont have a nay sayer on the fringes casting doubt over such things.
Good luck to'em I say.
Good luck to'em I say.
The EU is and has been a basket case for years now. Nothing it does is in the interests of others. It is no more than a self-gratifying idea of a few, for the few, and not for the majority. What else could anything be that is run by the unelected?
Will it survive a post Brexit?
More to the point will it survive without!!!
Ug_lee said:
ATG said:
France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.
Why compare their joint GDP with our EU contributions? Comparing contributions with ours not have the same impact?k all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU. The EU will do fine unless we manage to secure a particularly good deal when we leave. If this happens other countries will be tempted to leave and go for the same deal. This is one of many reasons why you can be sure it will not be easy to get a good deal if we leave.
Ug_lee said:
ATG said:
France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.
Why compare their joint GDP with our EU contributions? Comparing contributions with ours not have the same impact?k all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU. The way I look at it is 2 indebted nations having to cough up more money (that they don't have) to try and keep the EU agenda alive. All whilst trying to sell it to increasingly sceptical populations.
They cannot sort out Greece's issues, how they will make the French and Germans 'integrate' further is a whole new raft of problems way beyond what Greece is currently.
If you me and Dave went to the pub for a few drinks and agreed to shove a fiver each into the kitty, you can't tell how affordable that fiver is to reach of us by looking at the other's contributions. You have to look at our individual incomes.
TEKNOPUG said:
That will explain the dozens of EU politicos & bureaucrats from France, Germany and beyond who are more than happy for us to leave and certainly haven't issued any post Brexit threats, as we are such insignificant contributors and we'd be no loss to them, at all. Just buttons as you say. Glad you've cleared that up for us.
So France & Germany, being the big two Euro countries, should actually be encouraging us to leave, so that the Eurozone can expand and we can stop interfering with their integrationalist policies? That doesn't appear to be the case though, does it?
The contribution is buttons to the EU. The key thing that gets overlooked is that it is buttons to the UK economy too. If anyone seriously thinks redirecting that 10bn to education, defence, NHS or whatever is going to make much difference, they clearly have no idea how much money the UK state sector spends each year.So France & Germany, being the big two Euro countries, should actually be encouraging us to leave, so that the Eurozone can expand and we can stop interfering with their integrationalist policies? That doesn't appear to be the case though, does it?
Of course our EU partners don't want us to leave. We bring a lot to the EU. Does that mean it'll collapse if we leave? No. Not sure why you think there is some contradiction?
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