CS, Scud, Speciale - Has the market stalled?
Discussion
I'm in the market for a Scuderia and having looked at LHD am now tempted to spend the extra for RHD. There are arguments for/against future values of both but RHD Scuderia is a comparable bargain having risen only 50% (£110-130k to £180-200k) vs circa 150% for CS (£80-100k to £200-250k) over the last 2 years.
However, being in this position of choice - as I'm sure a reasonable number of others are, I'm rather stunned by how many cars are available and just not selling - there are around 24 x 360CS, and 37 Scuderias and over 40 (?) Speciales available. I've never seen so many Scuds at any one time (there used to be 8-10 at a time available) and some of the RHD cars have been advertised for months.
Dealers have no incentive to start chopping prices to sell (their debt is cheap) but if this is a new established price level, why arent they selling? Is there a general consensus among people in a similar position to me that it'd be crazy to buy now rather than wait and see what happens over the next 6 months? But what - if anything, is going to change the market when dealers debt is so cheap to maintain, unless theyre not selling anything and need to service monthly payments by selling something..?
All the talk about values is indeed boring and if the market wasnt so odd right now I'll gladly spin the dice and buy something I can enjoy, but I'm sure like many others I dont want to spend £180k on a car and end up taking a bath on it!
However, being in this position of choice - as I'm sure a reasonable number of others are, I'm rather stunned by how many cars are available and just not selling - there are around 24 x 360CS, and 37 Scuderias and over 40 (?) Speciales available. I've never seen so many Scuds at any one time (there used to be 8-10 at a time available) and some of the RHD cars have been advertised for months.
Dealers have no incentive to start chopping prices to sell (their debt is cheap) but if this is a new established price level, why arent they selling? Is there a general consensus among people in a similar position to me that it'd be crazy to buy now rather than wait and see what happens over the next 6 months? But what - if anything, is going to change the market when dealers debt is so cheap to maintain, unless theyre not selling anything and need to service monthly payments by selling something..?
All the talk about values is indeed boring and if the market wasnt so odd right now I'll gladly spin the dice and buy something I can enjoy, but I'm sure like many others I dont want to spend £180k on a car and end up taking a bath on it!
I have watched the lower to mid pricing end of the spectrum for LHD Scuds on and off since about mid-2014. At the time they were I think down in the low 100s (there was one in a weird colour for sale for about 90k in Q4 2014). I think at the time a lot of cars were bought by guys from the UK at quite favourable FX rates as the Euro car price hike lagged behind the UK.
Then in mid 2015 prices were hiked to the higher 100s for the cheaper cars. Then a few months ago some started to become available in the mid 100s again (a couple of cars with 130-150k prices), which seem to have sold quite quickly. There is a large number sticking in the high 100s - I dont watch very closely, but it seems these cars have been for sale for ages. My reading is that the clearing price for these is in the above mentiond 130-150 bracket as opposed to the asking prices from 170k up.
I should have bough a lovely one at I think Ferrari Berlin in vinaccia - looked spectacular - for I think 120k about 18 months ago.
Similar situation for Speciales in the high 200s, they seem to be sticking
Challenge Stradales I am not sure about, were hiked from about 80-90k in 2014 I think to the current levels. No clue if they are selling though - one that I looked at in spring is still abailable now.
This is all from memory, so might be a little off on timing of pricing levels.
I personally think the Scuderia is the least attractive looking out of those 3 cars and as it is the middle one, and higher build numbers than a CS - it might be seen as less collectable than the other two (the first model of this type - ignoring 348/355 Challenge cars as those are different imo - respectively the last naturally aspirated one) - so maybe that is a reason for it having appreciated less than the CS
Then in mid 2015 prices were hiked to the higher 100s for the cheaper cars. Then a few months ago some started to become available in the mid 100s again (a couple of cars with 130-150k prices), which seem to have sold quite quickly. There is a large number sticking in the high 100s - I dont watch very closely, but it seems these cars have been for sale for ages. My reading is that the clearing price for these is in the above mentiond 130-150 bracket as opposed to the asking prices from 170k up.
I should have bough a lovely one at I think Ferrari Berlin in vinaccia - looked spectacular - for I think 120k about 18 months ago.
Similar situation for Speciales in the high 200s, they seem to be sticking
Challenge Stradales I am not sure about, were hiked from about 80-90k in 2014 I think to the current levels. No clue if they are selling though - one that I looked at in spring is still abailable now.
This is all from memory, so might be a little off on timing of pricing levels.
I personally think the Scuderia is the least attractive looking out of those 3 cars and as it is the middle one, and higher build numbers than a CS - it might be seen as less collectable than the other two (the first model of this type - ignoring 348/355 Challenge cars as those are different imo - respectively the last naturally aspirated one) - so maybe that is a reason for it having appreciated less than the CS
suigeneris said:
I'm in the market for a Scuderia and having looked at LHD am now tempted to spend the extra for RHD. There are arguments for/against future values of both but RHD Scuderia is a comparable bargain having risen only 50% (£110-130k to £180-200k) vs circa 150% for CS (£80-100k to £200-250k) over the last 2 years.
However, being in this position of choice - as I'm sure a reasonable number of others are, I'm rather stunned by how many cars are available and just not selling - there are around 24 x 360CS, and 37 Scuderias and over 40 (?) Speciales available. I've never seen so many Scuds at any one time (there used to be 8-10 at a time available) and some of the RHD cars have been advertised for months.
Dealers have no incentive to start chopping prices to sell (their debt is cheap) but if this is a new established price level, why arent they selling? Is there a general consensus among people in a similar position to me that it'd be crazy to buy now rather than wait and see what happens over the next 6 months? But what - if anything, is going to change the market when dealers debt is so cheap to maintain, unless theyre not selling anything and need to service monthly payments by selling something..?
All the talk about values is indeed boring and if the market wasnt so odd right now I'll gladly spin the dice and buy something I can enjoy, but I'm sure like many others I dont want to spend £180k on a car and end up taking a bath on it!
I'm in the same position i.e. Looking for a Scud, and have been for sometime. Compared with CS and Speciale I think the Scud looks good value, but as you say - none of them seem to be selling, and a few of them have been discounted recently, and still no movement. Maybe things will suddenly pick up??However, being in this position of choice - as I'm sure a reasonable number of others are, I'm rather stunned by how many cars are available and just not selling - there are around 24 x 360CS, and 37 Scuderias and over 40 (?) Speciales available. I've never seen so many Scuds at any one time (there used to be 8-10 at a time available) and some of the RHD cars have been advertised for months.
Dealers have no incentive to start chopping prices to sell (their debt is cheap) but if this is a new established price level, why arent they selling? Is there a general consensus among people in a similar position to me that it'd be crazy to buy now rather than wait and see what happens over the next 6 months? But what - if anything, is going to change the market when dealers debt is so cheap to maintain, unless theyre not selling anything and need to service monthly payments by selling something..?
All the talk about values is indeed boring and if the market wasnt so odd right now I'll gladly spin the dice and buy something I can enjoy, but I'm sure like many others I dont want to spend £180k on a car and end up taking a bath on it!
My own personal two-penneth as an owner and also someone who keeps half an eye on the market. I too had seen a stall (specifically RHD) in Scud prices, even go so far as to say a drop as recent memory has me mostly seeing cars nearing the £200k mark. Most Ive see lhd go for is £160k ish and now RHD’s aren’t far off that.
I feel it’s more a wider economic indicator. Brexit no doubt has put some spending on hold (uncertainty) and the ccy hit hasn’t helped.
As for the models and where they sit. Some say the Scud is the least attractive / investable of the two. Maybe, could also argue that is the sweet spot of raw vs refinement 360 / 458. Don’t forget they made less CS’s and much more Speciales…
I feel it’s more a wider economic indicator. Brexit no doubt has put some spending on hold (uncertainty) and the ccy hit hasn’t helped.
As for the models and where they sit. Some say the Scud is the least attractive / investable of the two. Maybe, could also argue that is the sweet spot of raw vs refinement 360 / 458. Don’t forget they made less CS’s and much more Speciales…
I think the Scuderia could be the sweet point of the 3 models as well. The F1 superfast II gearbox is amazing.
Far better/faster than CS and racier than the speciale which feels too smooth.
I sold mine in the trade over 20 months ago now for £160k. The dealer sold it a week later at £175k retail.
There was another Scud on the market ( only 6 RHD cars back then ) at the same time at £180k and not as nice ( higher mileage and not red ) IMHO and that same car is still for sale today at the same price.
I would say that is a major stall in the market.
One higher mileage Scuderia has recently been reduced by £10k after sitting around for 9 months.
You would have to be a brave person to chance buying in the current market
Far better/faster than CS and racier than the speciale which feels too smooth.
I sold mine in the trade over 20 months ago now for £160k. The dealer sold it a week later at £175k retail.
There was another Scud on the market ( only 6 RHD cars back then ) at the same time at £180k and not as nice ( higher mileage and not red ) IMHO and that same car is still for sale today at the same price.
I would say that is a major stall in the market.
One higher mileage Scuderia has recently been reduced by £10k after sitting around for 9 months.
You would have to be a brave person to chance buying in the current market
If you want to know where the speculator driven market is going, look at the results from the Monterey auctions last weekend. Bloodbath. This hasn't filtered through to the dealer pricing yet though. Clearly in denial. Ferraris seem to be dropping fastest but that's not surprising given the enormous run up the brand has had over the last few years - far out striping all others. A correction is due. No one knows how deep it will go. Buy for pleasure not investment potential.
subirg said:
If you want to know where the speculator driven market is going, look at the results from the Monterey auctions last weekend. Bloodbath. This hasn't filtered through to the dealer pricing yet though. Clearly in denial. Ferraris seem to be dropping fastest but that's not surprising given the enormous run up the brand has had over the last few years - far out striping all others. A correction is due. No one knows how deep it will go. Buy for pleasure not investment potential.
In that case anyone who doesnt want potential to take a bath with wait, but how much can they really change. I cant imagine Scuds going back to £130k and if there is a "correction to the mean" as the graph posted suggested, I imagine £180k cars may come down to maybe £140k-150k, so putting a cheeky offer in now may not yield too much downside risk... the only issue I've found is most dealers have such short memory of things just going up that theyre less willing to "deal" as they used to be.Frankly all of this gets very boring. Its easy to say when you do have money, but the only real commodity is time and I want to enjoy something now. I suppose I am just too cautious to throw caution to the wind but it seems this is the current mood with many others as well...
suigeneris said:
... but the only real commodity is time and I want to enjoy something now..
Good man. Life's too short. There's a thread on the Porsche forum about 'is the bubble about to burst' been going for nearly 18 months. Imagine if you'd have thought that back then and waited.I can't see the bottom falling out any time soon. Go buy the best Scud you can find and you won't look back.
They really are something else and bang for buck right now a relative bargin.
All the modern kit with blown engines, sure they're quicker but my god don't even come close in the noise stakes. Quick too, 510 hp in a 1200 odd kg car is no slow thing, as a visceral driving experience unimpeded by electronics
Big smiles every mile.
Slickhillsy said:
They really are something else and bang for buck right now a relative bargin.
All the modern kit with blown engines, sure they're quicker but my god don't even come close in the noise stakes. Quick too, 510 hp in a 1200 odd kg car is no slow thing, as a visceral driving experience unimpeded by electronics
There's absolutely no chance a Scuderia is 1200 odd kg. More like 1400kg fully fuelled if you ask me. All the modern kit with blown engines, sure they're quicker but my god don't even come close in the noise stakes. Quick too, 510 hp in a 1200 odd kg car is no slow thing, as a visceral driving experience unimpeded by electronics
It's still a brilliant car to drive though and relatively (compared to RHD CS and Speciales) not as expensive. The RHD speciale prices are about as daft as the 991 RS prices imo anyway and both are just sticking at insanely high prices put on by dreamers.
I wonder if the market does have a correction whether LHD or RHD will take the biggest hit. LHD market has larger audience in Europe (especially with a weak pound for these to be exported back, although that hasnt helped UK LHD sales recently), but if the correction is Europe wide you're in a bigger boat as supply is so much higher. Similar arguments for RHD having a lower supply but also potentially lower audience, although some argue it'll always be the stronger bet.
Head tells me to spend under £100k on something thats had less of a swing and wait it out... heart says RHD Scuderia!
Head tells me to spend under £100k on something thats had less of a swing and wait it out... heart says RHD Scuderia!
Edited by suigeneris on Tuesday 23 August 21:20
suigeneris said:
I wonder if the market does have a correction whether LHD or RHD will take the biggest hit. LHD market has larger audience in Europe (especially with a weak pound for these to be exported back, although that hasnt helped UK LHD sales recently), but if the correction is Europe wide you're in a bigger boat as supply is so much higher. Similar arguments for RHD having a lower supply but also potentially lower audience, although some argue it'll always be the stronger bet.
Head tells me to spend under £100k on something thats had less of a swing and wait it out... heart says RHD Scuderia!
I'd say a LHD Scud is a safer bet i.e. Under 20k miles, good spec (stripe, red, led wheel etc...) @ 130 - 140k. The RHD cars at 180k + seem a bit top heavy, and even if these do drop to 160 ish (and that's a big IF), I can't see a decent LHD dropping much, if at all...Head tells me to spend under £100k on something thats had less of a swing and wait it out... heart says RHD Scuderia!
Edited by suigeneris on Tuesday 23 August 21:20
isaldiri said:
There's absolutely no chance a Scuderia is 1200 odd kg. More like 1400kg fully fuelled if you ask me.
It's still a brilliant car to drive though and relatively (compared to RHD CS and Speciales) not as expensive. The RHD speciale prices are about as daft as the 991 RS prices imo anyway and both are just sticking at insanely high prices put on by dreamers.
Stand corrected sir I think you're spot on with the weights there...It's still a brilliant car to drive though and relatively (compared to RHD CS and Speciales) not as expensive. The RHD speciale prices are about as daft as the 991 RS prices imo anyway and both are just sticking at insanely high prices put on by dreamers.
Evo mag quote 1350 wet. Still not bad by today's standards.
Slickhillsy said:
isaldiri said:
There's absolutely no chance a Scuderia is 1200 odd kg. More like 1400kg fully fuelled if you ask me.
It's still a brilliant car to drive though and relatively (compared to RHD CS and Speciales) not as expensive. The RHD speciale prices are about as daft as the 991 RS prices imo anyway and both are just sticking at insanely high prices put on by dreamers.
Stand corrected sir I think you're spot on with the weights there...It's still a brilliant car to drive though and relatively (compared to RHD CS and Speciales) not as expensive. The RHD speciale prices are about as daft as the 991 RS prices imo anyway and both are just sticking at insanely high prices put on by dreamers.
Evo mag quote 1350 wet. Still not bad by today's standards.
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