Gone very quiet

[Forester1965]

Lots of people coming off 5yr mortgage fixes at the moment going from 1-2% deals into 4%+ ones. Typically £200-£300 worse off a month as a result.

[okgo]

borcy said:

I think it depends on who 'us' is, some never noticed CoL, some managed, and another large group will be struggling for some time to come. All groups may not be of equal size.

Energy bills have abated. Food inflation seems to have settled a bit. Mortgage rates have come down from the Truss spike. Wages I thought had increased?

You’re right there’s bubbles and I imagine I’m in one but still. Feels like CoL crisis is old news

[borcy]

okgo said:

Energy bills have abated. Food inflation seems to have settled a bit. Mortgage rates have come down from the Truss spike. Wages I thought had increased?

You’re right there’s bubbles and I imagine I’m in one but still. Feels like CoL crisis is old news

I guess everyone's situation is different, if you're talking population sizewise that's a different answer.
Things like arrears of utility bills, mortgages, food bank use, council tax arrears, things like that are probably good indicators.

[borcy]

Forester1965 said:

Lots of people coming off 5yr mortgage fixes at the moment going from 1-2% deals into 4%+ ones. Typically £200-£300 worse off a month as a result.

I was listening to a podcast about that, it was given as the main reason people are throttling back on spending for the short to medium term.

[Terminator X]

Digga said:

okgo said:

Is cost of living crisis still a thing?

I genuinely thought all that was behind us now.

It’s never going to be fixed until the main political parties fix housing. That’s the main driver of the biggest chunk of most ordinary people’s outgoings. Classic supply and demand meets landers and bureaucrats.

Meanwhile, the average tenure for a construction minister in the last 5 years was 8 months. Hopeless.

700k extra people a year though, they will never catch up.

TX.

[RayDonovan]

borcy said:

Forester1965 said:

Lots of people coming off 5yr mortgage fixes at the moment going from 1-2% deals into 4%+ ones. Typically £200-£300 worse off a month as a result.

I was listening to a podcast about that, it was given as the main reason people are throttling back on spending for the short to medium term.

Ours went up £250/month and that's on a relatively small balance. Dread to think the impact for some..

[President Merkin]

Mine's about to in a few months. And nothing has abated. Inflation has not gone down, it is merely rising at a lower rate than hitherrto, Energy bills are way above where they were two years ago. Practically everything is significantky more costly than it was in 2022. For right or wrong, millions of people in this country live month to month. First thing you do is ditch the spends. So PH to think none of that is a thing,

[ThingsBehindTheSun]

RayDonovan said:

Ours went up £250/month and that's on a relatively small balance. Dread to think the impact for some..

My fixed ends in October so I am just starting to look around and even on a £140K mortgage the increase is massive. A terrace three bedroom house here costs £900K, so some people will have scary mortgage payments once they have to remortgage.

Yet whenever I go anywhere it is always rammed with people spending money like it is going out of fashion.

I can only assume that a lot of people don't actually have a mortgage due to family wealth so are completely unaffected.

[Gary29]

ThingsBehindTheSun said:

Yet whenever I go anywhere it is always rammed with people spending money like it is going out of fashion.

I can only assume that a lot of people don't actually have a mortgage due to family wealth so are completely unaffected.

This seems to match my experience too.

I think the gap between the 'haves' and the 'have nots' is growing, at least that's how it feels to me.

[ThingsBehindTheSun]

Gary29 said:

This seems to match my experience too.

I think the gap between the 'haves' and the 'have nots' is growing, at least that's how it feels to me.

Agreed. I think those with money, assets (watches, cars, etc.), houses, investments etc. have seen the value of their wealth massively increase since Covid.

The average person with no savings, no investments, no real assets and a mortgage have seen their buying power and lifestyle reduce since Covid.

I know I personally wince at the cost of everything when we go out now. We earn decent money and it seems to go nowhere these days, how are people who earn the national average managing to live?

[ashleyman]

Hitch said:

Those prices are pretty standard now. I can't believe what we pay to put people up these days.

I do like a good hotel and am quite happy to pay for it but some places are £800+ a night and just simply insanely priced, even when you get there all the amenities are inflated also.

It feels the same with most 'luxury' stuff though, even trainers are £1000+ when 2 years ago it was £600 which was still high but not super bad. The gap is widening up for sure.

[borcy]

ashleyman said:

I do like a good hotel and am quite happy to pay for it but some places are £800+ a night and just simply insanely priced, even when you get there all the amenities are inflated also.

It feels the same with most 'luxury' stuff though, even trainers are £1000+ when 2 years ago it was £600 which was still high but not super bad. The gap is widening up for sure.

There are trainers that cost £1000?

Everyday is a school day

[Hondashark]

ashleyman said:

Hitch said:

Those prices are pretty standard now. I can't believe what we pay to put people up these days.

I do like a good hotel and am quite happy to pay for it but some places are £800+ a night and just simply insanely priced, even when you get there all the amenities are inflated also.

It feels the same with most 'luxury' stuff though, even trainers are £1000+ when 2 years ago it was £600 which was still high but not super bad. The gap is widening up for sure.

Trainers are £50. I think you're on a different side of the gap than you think you are..

[ashleyman]

Hondashark said:

ashleyman said:

Hitch said:

Those prices are pretty standard now. I can't believe what we pay to put people up these days.

I do like a good hotel and am quite happy to pay for it but some places are £800+ a night and just simply insanely priced, even when you get there all the amenities are inflated also.

It feels the same with most 'luxury' stuff though, even trainers are £1000+ when 2 years ago it was £600 which was still high but not super bad. The gap is widening up for sure.

Trainers are £50. I think you're on a different side of the gap than you think you are..

I wasn't commenting on my side of the gap. I was saying that the cost of 'luxury' brand goods is now a lot more than what it was a few years back. Same with hotels which used to be up to 500/700 a night for a really nice place like Dorchester / 4 Seasons and those are now £1000+ a night.

Although we are on good money our spend power is reduced and we are looking to go to cheaper properties for holidays vs what we used to do.

[bigweb]

DSLiverpool said:

Very sudden severe drop off in many sectors but not vapes - they are selling like crazy on Amazon.
Hard to believe a young lad with 2 part time staff smashed £300k last month. Not sure why he needs be I can learn a lot from him.

Cosmetics are still huge but so many new players coming in do dilute the young hero brands.

Fashion seems good, I’m not so fast but quick fashion these days, again March was a record March.

Fashion is weird at the moment, We have just had a customer of ours come in and is considering winding up as margins are so tight but we have just had our biggest fashion client have their biggest month ever (that wasn't a black Friday thing) and is up 76% on this time last year.

[RayDonovan]

ThingsBehindTheSun said:

RayDonovan said:

Ours went up £250/month and that's on a relatively small balance. Dread to think the impact for some..

My fixed ends in October so I am just starting to look around and even on a £140K mortgage the increase is massive. A terrace three bedroom house here costs £900K, so some people will have scary mortgage payments once they have to remortgage.

Yet whenever I go anywhere it is always rammed with people spending money like it is going out of fashion.

I can only assume that a lot of people don't actually have a mortgage due to family wealth so are completely unaffected.

Certainly round my way (North Yorks) I know very few people who don't have a mortgage, ages between early to late 40's.

Completely agree with places being rammed and money being spent, doesn't really add up. The only thing I see is that people still have access to credit and will continue to use it.

One family member of mine is always on Holiday, new clothes and living away beyond their income and it turned out to be all on the never never. Only came to light when they had to use a £10k PPI payment years ago to partly pay down a credit card. From the outside looking in, you'd think they were loaded.

[okgo]

It didn’t really affect people too badly though did it. No mass repossessions, no giant recession; just a slight adjustment of spend.

If you’re capable of getting a mortgage then you’re capable of not being a prat if prices go up.

Mine will go up a lot I suspect, if I decide to still have one, suspect it’ll be touch and go if rates don’t drop a fair bit.

[Red9zero]

Forester1965 said:

Lots of people coming off 5yr mortgage fixes at the moment going from 1-2% deals into 4%+ ones. Typically £200-£300 worse off a month as a result.

Luckily my wife is an IFA, so has been looking round for the last few months for any decent rates. We are also planning on paying a chunk of the mortgage off, so shouldn't come out of it too bad. I know a few people (our nephew and his g/f for one) who didn't fix at the lower rate when they could, and were advised to do so, and are now in trouble though.

[Fusion777]

Think we’re lucky that unemployment is still very low at the minute, and that interest rates still aren’t high by historic standards. Big minimum wage increases and (to a lesser extent) NI reductions aren’t doing any harm, either.

[r3g]

okgo said:

It didn’t really affect people too badly though did it. No mass repossessions, no giant recession; just a slight adjustment of spend.

I don't think it's as simple as that. I think there's a lot of can-kicking going on, personally. I know from idle chitchat with frends and family in my circles about the cost of living, the topic of remortgage rates has come up and several have admitted that they simply can't afford the increase (several hundred pounds per month). Two have said that they've had to extend the repayment term to make the monthlies manageable which means they'll still be paying well into their 70s. Essentially the mortgage is turning into a never ending rental, which may eventually become the property of your siblings if they continue paying the monthlies after you're dead.

I suspect the lenders are dealing with this "unable to pay the additional £x00 per month" issue by offering lengthy extensions to the term to keep the money coming in as they don't want a load of distressed property on their books to offload.