Are there any city traders on here?
Discussion
shadowninja said:
Retard said:
added a bit over four and a half grand
But was this because you put £4.5k per pip and it climbed 1 pip before you bailed? 
In a whole week? I spend 95% of my time at "work" browsing the internet, eating, drinking, thinking, etc. So long as you realise when you need to concentrate (when things start flashing on the screen;-)) there is no rush...
I do feel it is too many trades to an extent, but I'd rather be conservative and take small guaranteed profits while I'm this inexperienced.
I do feel it is too many trades to an extent, but I'd rather be conservative and take small guaranteed profits while I'm this inexperienced.
coyft said:
Retard said:
Lol, looks about as convincing as biorhythms.
Don't get me wrong, I don't believe that markets follow a complete random walk, in fact I've added a bit over four and a half grand to my account in the last week from a decent sense of what was probably going to happen in the next hour, but long term "perfect" predictions - you must be joking or God.
As an experiment, I freely admit having no basis for this prediction, but I predict a close on the dow of 12250 +/- 150 on the 14th December, what is your perfect prediction for it?
So what's the experiment? Don't get me wrong, I don't believe that markets follow a complete random walk, in fact I've added a bit over four and a half grand to my account in the last week from a decent sense of what was probably going to happen in the next hour, but long term "perfect" predictions - you must be joking or God.
As an experiment, I freely admit having no basis for this prediction, but I predict a close on the dow of 12250 +/- 150 on the 14th December, what is your perfect prediction for it?
shadowninja said:
25 trades? Crikey. Must be quite a rush?
I'd rather wait for the one juicy trade of the day and enjoy that one, while spending inexplicably large amounts of time on PH.
You're my idol.Finspreads, terrible - not giving me prices, not letting me close positions, logging me out and then not letting me log back in (this was in my days of scalping). I'm now with someone from the London Capital Group and everyone knows about IG and I may use them as they cover more shares than my current one.
Retard said:
..... looks about as convincing as biorhythms.
...... long term "perfect" predictions - you must be joking or God.
...... long term "perfect" predictions - you must be joking or God.
Obviously, it is impossible to give a convicing argument of the fundamentals here! That was not the intention of the posts.
Suffice to say, I appreciate that unless one is able understand the underlying causes of repeating cycles, it is difficult/impossible to even envisage the ability to forecast markets in either the short or long term. The key point is that (although almost all traders cannot do it) it can be done - and without being a comic or God!!!
Thank you to everyone for taking the time to contribute, I appreciate it.
Perhaps this comment is based on a lack of knowledge at this stage however why would I trade PA?
I know nothing about stocks and shares, that's the whole point! I need an in to learn the business. Ultimately I might as well go and use my savings or sell the Boxster 5k cheaper than I want to be cash positive quickly and place all of it this afternoon on "Lucky Lady" in the 3.30".
Don't think I would ever use my own money, too much risk with no understanding of the markets what so ever and conversely I would never expect a trading house/brokerage or bank let me trade before an intensive trader trainee programme and completion of my FSA exams, allied to mentorship from a successful team of traders on a daily basis.
As I said I want a change of career. The stock market has always held an appeal for financial reasons, you hear all the time about brokers and traders/bankers earning massive pa bonuses. I currently earn pretty good money so guess I will have to accept it.
Just a thought and thanks to all for managing my expectations.
Thanks again.
Perhaps this comment is based on a lack of knowledge at this stage however why would I trade PA?
I know nothing about stocks and shares, that's the whole point! I need an in to learn the business. Ultimately I might as well go and use my savings or sell the Boxster 5k cheaper than I want to be cash positive quickly and place all of it this afternoon on "Lucky Lady" in the 3.30".
Don't think I would ever use my own money, too much risk with no understanding of the markets what so ever and conversely I would never expect a trading house/brokerage or bank let me trade before an intensive trader trainee programme and completion of my FSA exams, allied to mentorship from a successful team of traders on a daily basis.
As I said I want a change of career. The stock market has always held an appeal for financial reasons, you hear all the time about brokers and traders/bankers earning massive pa bonuses. I currently earn pretty good money so guess I will have to accept it.
Just a thought and thanks to all for managing my expectations.
Thanks again.
Mystic said:
Retard said:
..... looks about as convincing as biorhythms.
...... long term "perfect" predictions - you must be joking or God.
...... long term "perfect" predictions - you must be joking or God.
Obviously, it is impossible to give a convicing argument of the fundamentals here! That was not the intention of the posts.
Suffice to say, I appreciate that unless one is able understand the underlying causes of repeating cycles, it is difficult/impossible to even envisage the ability to forecast markets in either the short or long term. The key point is that (although almost all traders cannot do it) it can be done - and without being a comic or God!!!
Hey,
can't really comment on a trading career with the banks and prop firms etc, as it's not a route that i've walked myself.
I trade my own account, and i scalp e-mini futures, mainily ES (s&P 500)
Eveyone in the markets has there own way of trading. People out there are making and loosing money doing all sorts from using simple MA crossings, too reading the stars, with everything inbetween such as fibs and pivot points etc
I personally like to read the order flow and i wrap what the order flow is telling me around auction market theory.
So in a nutshell i'm picking key points out in the market using AMT, and at these high probability areas i'm looking to see how buyers and sellers are reacting at these levels. I also use other standard tactics like scaling out of a position etc...
Took me about a year untill i got to the point where i was consistent and confident in what i was doing, and now i've been trading a live account for about 8months. I'm not making millions, but i make a very good living. It is what it is. I only started with 5k which was my student loan and student overdraft (foolish i know, but i didn't have anything to loose), and i blew half of that making stupid mistakes at first, but i stuck with it, and like i said before, i became more confident and consistent. After i got the ball rolling i increased the size i was trading by 1 contract for every 1k i made, and before i knew it was trading 10lots and so on.
My advice is if you want to give it ago then do it. Nothing ventured, nothing gained as they say. You'll get lots of people telling you day trading is for mugs and that it's a gamble, but they're just telling you that because they couldn't do it themselves. The market is not completley ramdom, it has structure and areas of value and balance.
Like i say, i can't offer any advice on working for the banks. No one in the city would someone like me a chance lol. I'm 21 with two crap A levels, and dropped out of a crap uni. I never went into uni because i was sat on esignal all day watching the markets too see if there was any truth in what james dalton and peter stedlmayer had to say lol. However if you want any advice in trading yourself, feel free to drop me a email and maybe i can offer some advice that helped me along.
Even if i only made 300 quid week i'd still trade. It's what i love and is truely a passion of mine
can't really comment on a trading career with the banks and prop firms etc, as it's not a route that i've walked myself.
I trade my own account, and i scalp e-mini futures, mainily ES (s&P 500)
Eveyone in the markets has there own way of trading. People out there are making and loosing money doing all sorts from using simple MA crossings, too reading the stars, with everything inbetween such as fibs and pivot points etc
I personally like to read the order flow and i wrap what the order flow is telling me around auction market theory.
So in a nutshell i'm picking key points out in the market using AMT, and at these high probability areas i'm looking to see how buyers and sellers are reacting at these levels. I also use other standard tactics like scaling out of a position etc...
Took me about a year untill i got to the point where i was consistent and confident in what i was doing, and now i've been trading a live account for about 8months. I'm not making millions, but i make a very good living. It is what it is. I only started with 5k which was my student loan and student overdraft (foolish i know, but i didn't have anything to loose), and i blew half of that making stupid mistakes at first, but i stuck with it, and like i said before, i became more confident and consistent. After i got the ball rolling i increased the size i was trading by 1 contract for every 1k i made, and before i knew it was trading 10lots and so on.
My advice is if you want to give it ago then do it. Nothing ventured, nothing gained as they say. You'll get lots of people telling you day trading is for mugs and that it's a gamble, but they're just telling you that because they couldn't do it themselves. The market is not completley ramdom, it has structure and areas of value and balance.
Like i say, i can't offer any advice on working for the banks. No one in the city would someone like me a chance lol. I'm 21 with two crap A levels, and dropped out of a crap uni. I never went into uni because i was sat on esignal all day watching the markets too see if there was any truth in what james dalton and peter stedlmayer had to say lol. However if you want any advice in trading yourself, feel free to drop me a email and maybe i can offer some advice that helped me along.
Even if i only made 300 quid week i'd still trade. It's what i love and is truely a passion of mine
g4ry13 said:
shadowninja said:
25 trades? Crikey. Must be quite a rush?
I'd rather wait for the one juicy trade of the day and enjoy that one, while spending inexplicably large amounts of time on PH.
You're my idol.Finspreads, terrible - not giving me prices, not letting me close positions, logging me out and then not letting me log back in (this was in my days of scalping). I'm now with someone from the London Capital Group and everyone knows about IG and I may use them as they cover more shares than my current one.
As for my trading style, I used to scalp, trying to trade every twitch of the market via binaries... was successful but I daren't risk enough to make it worthwhile. Averaged between 20 and 30 trades a day, heart in the mouth stuff, all for £50 profit per day. Really wasn't worth it.
NoelWatson said:
Mystic said:
Retard said:
..... looks about as convincing as biorhythms.
...... long term "perfect" predictions - you must be joking or God.
...... long term "perfect" predictions - you must be joking or God.
Obviously, it is impossible to give a convicing argument of the fundamentals here! That was not the intention of the posts.
Suffice to say, I appreciate that unless one is able understand the underlying causes of repeating cycles, it is difficult/impossible to even envisage the ability to forecast markets in either the short or long term. The key point is that (although almost all traders cannot do it) it can be done - and without being a comic or God!!!
- The fundamental subject matter that needs to be understood, in accurately and consistently predicting any market (hours, days, months and years ahead), is not the commodity or shares that are being traded in that market. That is, forget fundamentals; you need not even know how what DJIA stands for in order to trade the Dow!
- Any market is merely a barometer of human mass psychology. In other words and in summary: taking the people that participate in a market, if more feel positive than negative, there are more buyers than sellers, so prices go up. If there are more people that are negative than positive, prices go down. If there is an even balance of the two types, prices go sideways
- So if one wants to understand any market, one needs to begin to truly and objectively understand what a “human being” is. The more one can answer this question, the more likely one will be able to predict the future behaviour of human beings. The axiom: “Prediction is the ultimate test of science” is so true. If what we call “science” cannot, for example, accurately and consistently predict the weather (days, months and years in advance), then that science is flawed in some way. To say that something is “impossible to predict” or it “is random”, is merely a reflection or an admission of ones lack of a fundamental understanding of the subject in hand
- Anyone who cares to plot daily charts, on any major market, for say 30 years worth of data manually on a roll of graph paper one metre wide by 10 metres long, where one small square of the graph paper is equivalent to one unit of price and time, will be rewarded immensely. The graph will show a perfect mathematical and geometric relationship in human mass psychology; it will begin to reveal the answer to the fundamental question. The penny will start to drop and that is when the real work can begin....
Edited by Mystic on Saturday 1st December 16:51
Mystic said:
Seriously, it is impossible to outline the system here. However, without wishing to offend anyone who has a differing view, I will say the following:
- The fundamental subject matter that needs to be understood in successfully trading any market is not the commodity or shares that are being traded in that market. That is, forget fundamentals; you need not even know how what DJIA stands for in order to trade the Dow!
- Any market is merely a barometer of human mass psychology. In other words and in summary: taking the people that participate in a market, if more feel positive than negative, there are more buyers than sellers, so prices go up. If there are more people that are negative than positive, prices go down. If there is an even balance of the two types, prices go sideways
- So if one wants to understand any market, one needs to begin to truly and objectively understand what a “human being” is. The more one can answer this question, the more likely one will be able to predict the future behaviour of human beings. The axiom: “Prediction is the ultimate test of science” is so true. If what we call “science” cannot, for example, accurately and consistently predict the weather (days, months and years in advance), then that science is flawed in some way. To say that something is “impossible to predict” or it “is random”, is merely a reflection or an admission of ones lack of a fundamental understanding of the subject in hand
- Anyone who cares to plot daily charts, on any major market, for say 30 years worth of data manually on a roll of graph paper one metre wide by 10 metres long, where one small square of the graph paper is equivalent to one unit of price and time, will be rewarded immensely. The graph will show a perfect mathematical and geometric relationship in human mass psychology; it will begin to reveal the answer to the fundamental question. The penny will start to drop and that is when the real work can begin....
There's some interesting points you made:- The fundamental subject matter that needs to be understood in successfully trading any market is not the commodity or shares that are being traded in that market. That is, forget fundamentals; you need not even know how what DJIA stands for in order to trade the Dow!
- Any market is merely a barometer of human mass psychology. In other words and in summary: taking the people that participate in a market, if more feel positive than negative, there are more buyers than sellers, so prices go up. If there are more people that are negative than positive, prices go down. If there is an even balance of the two types, prices go sideways
- So if one wants to understand any market, one needs to begin to truly and objectively understand what a “human being” is. The more one can answer this question, the more likely one will be able to predict the future behaviour of human beings. The axiom: “Prediction is the ultimate test of science” is so true. If what we call “science” cannot, for example, accurately and consistently predict the weather (days, months and years in advance), then that science is flawed in some way. To say that something is “impossible to predict” or it “is random”, is merely a reflection or an admission of ones lack of a fundamental understanding of the subject in hand
- Anyone who cares to plot daily charts, on any major market, for say 30 years worth of data manually on a roll of graph paper one metre wide by 10 metres long, where one small square of the graph paper is equivalent to one unit of price and time, will be rewarded immensely. The graph will show a perfect mathematical and geometric relationship in human mass psychology; it will begin to reveal the answer to the fundamental question. The penny will start to drop and that is when the real work can begin....
- Completely ignore fundamentals? I know some argue that the price of a share / index reflects the true value of where it's at. But surely you've got to look at such things as announcements in your decision-making process otherwise you'll get burnt with key economic announcements (usually when the market is surprised.)
- More buyers than sellers doesn't always make the price increase. It's a common misperception and you only have to look through some level 2 stats to see this in operation. MM's use many methods to lower prices, to fill orders, protecting a share and other ulterior motives despite the upward / downward pressures in the market.
- Sentiment plays a key role in the market, more so than fundamentals in the short run. We only have to look at the volatility we've been seeing over the last quarter and those following the herd most likely ended up with large profits. In the longer run, fundamentals will prevail as sentiment can easily change from week to week with the smallest change in economic data or a few consecutive rally's.
- What is a human being? I don't think i'll be ever able to understand the innate thought processes of every person that takes part in the markets. Partly because it wasn't my area of study and everyone has different characteristics, concepts of risk and methods of trading. To even start predicting the future behaviour of human beings seems a little far-fetched. How would you go about this?
- I actually concur about there being patterns in the market and it's pretty obvious looking back at the charts. But we can't always predict future events such as wars or terrorist events which can significantly impact the financial markets in a matter of minutes.
Edited by g4ry13 on Saturday 1st December 16:39
g4ry13 said:
There's some interesting points you made:
- Completely ignore fundamentals? I know some argue that the price of a share / index reflects the true value of where it's at. But surely you've got to look at such things as announcements in your decision-making process otherwise you'll get burnt with key economic announcements (usually when the market is surprised.)
- More buyers than sellers doesn't always make the price increase. It's a common misperception and you only have to look through some level 2 stats to see this in operation. MM's use many methods to lower prices, to fill orders, protecting a share and other ulterior motives despite the upward / downward pressures in the market.
- Sentiment plays a key role in the market, more so than fundamentals in the short run. We only have to look at the volatility we've been seeing over the last quarter and those following the herd most likely ended up with large profits. In the longer run, fundamentals will prevail as sentiment can easily change from week to week with the smallest change in economic data or a few consecutive rally's.
- What is a human being? I don't think i'll be ever able to understand the innate thought processes of every person that takes part in the markets. Partly because it wasn't my area of study and everyone has different characteristics, concepts of risk and methods of trading. To even start predicting the future behaviour of human beings seems a little far-fetched. How would you go about this?
- I actually concur about there being patterns in the market and it's pretty obvious looking back at the charts. But we can't always predict future events such as wars or terrorist events which can significantly impact the financial markets in a matter of minutes.
Again, without wishing to offend - there is a favourite quote of mine that dates back almost 100 years and it goes: - Completely ignore fundamentals? I know some argue that the price of a share / index reflects the true value of where it's at. But surely you've got to look at such things as announcements in your decision-making process otherwise you'll get burnt with key economic announcements (usually when the market is surprised.)
- More buyers than sellers doesn't always make the price increase. It's a common misperception and you only have to look through some level 2 stats to see this in operation. MM's use many methods to lower prices, to fill orders, protecting a share and other ulterior motives despite the upward / downward pressures in the market.
- Sentiment plays a key role in the market, more so than fundamentals in the short run. We only have to look at the volatility we've been seeing over the last quarter and those following the herd most likely ended up with large profits. In the longer run, fundamentals will prevail as sentiment can easily change from week to week with the smallest change in economic data or a few consecutive rally's.
- What is a human being? I don't think i'll be ever able to understand the innate thought processes of every person that takes part in the markets. Partly because it wasn't my area of study and everyone has different characteristics, concepts of risk and methods of trading. To even start predicting the future behaviour of human beings seems a little far-fetched. How would you go about this?
- I actually concur about there being patterns in the market and it's pretty obvious looking back at the charts. But we can't always predict future events such as wars or terrorist events which can significantly impact the financial markets in a matter of minutes.
Edited by g4ry13 on Saturday 1st December 16:39
"To avert failure in speculation one has to deal with causes and not effects"
Under the meaning of "effects" one can include: dividend policy, government policy/announcements, terrorist attacks, interest rate decisions, outbreak of war, runs on a bank, a chairman saying his plc's product is "crap" etc etc.
"Effects" should all be ignored; they are of no use, if you are in the business of accurate and consistent prediction of the markets. It may appear strange, but when one can accurately predict a market, one is, within that prediction, also taking into account other "factors" (eg: a forthcoming terrorist attack that may appear to be the "cause" of market price fluctuation).
When you see patterns in a chart and begin to understand what causes them and can predict them into the future accurately and consistently, what you are actually doing is predicting correctly the future behaviour of the human beings that participate in that market (without ever knowing who they are, how many there are in the market, they may not have even been born yet if your cycles are decades into the future).
I have no experience at all with trading stock, but in regards to futures, i must admit that i agree that one can forget fundementals. Thats just my personal opinion, afterall there are many paths up the mountain.
Personally i believe that the truth lays within price and volume, because afterall price and volume is a direct result off all the combinations and varible factors within the market.
I also believe that when it comes to trading, i think that sometimes people just make things over complicated and just end up getting lost in their own minds. Sometimes the most simple trades work out the best. One of the trades that i took on friday on ESZ7 is a fine example
The 29th produced a nice balance area (lovely day for my scalping ) We got a single print high at 1478 - give or a take a couple of ticks. Anyway friday opened with a higher intial balance suggesting the market was moving up.
The market traded down into 1478, which as we know from above was the extreme upper edge of the of the previous days balance area. Also 1478.75 was a pivot number too.
If one was just to keep it simple and follow sound market structure then this setup gives us a nice opportunity to get long on the market. Also to comfirm the trade, by reading the tape one could of seen where the sellers became exhuasted and new buyers stepped into the market and become the more dominant of the two forces. A simple candle stick graph is attached and shows the buying point
This is just one of the setups that i play when the right conditions are met. Granted that the setup explained above is the most simple one in my tool box, but it goes to prove my intial point of how sometimes just being simple works best. No doubt there are some city traders here that will laugh at my amature simple ways, but hey i'm 21, it keeps a roof over my head and is buying me my m3 (e46) when i find the right spec one. Also, if i'm lucky, maybe one day it will allow me to forfill me dream of having a fezza
Personally i believe that the truth lays within price and volume, because afterall price and volume is a direct result off all the combinations and varible factors within the market.
I also believe that when it comes to trading, i think that sometimes people just make things over complicated and just end up getting lost in their own minds. Sometimes the most simple trades work out the best. One of the trades that i took on friday on ESZ7 is a fine example
The 29th produced a nice balance area (lovely day for my scalping
) We got a single print high at 1478 - give or a take a couple of ticks. Anyway friday opened with a higher intial balance suggesting the market was moving up. The market traded down into 1478, which as we know from above was the extreme upper edge of the of the previous days balance area. Also 1478.75 was a pivot number too.
If one was just to keep it simple and follow sound market structure then this setup gives us a nice opportunity to get long on the market. Also to comfirm the trade, by reading the tape one could of seen where the sellers became exhuasted and new buyers stepped into the market and become the more dominant of the two forces. A simple candle stick graph is attached and shows the buying point
This is just one of the setups that i play when the right conditions are met. Granted that the setup explained above is the most simple one in my tool box, but it goes to prove my intial point of how sometimes just being simple works best. No doubt there are some city traders here that will laugh at my amature simple ways, but hey i'm 21, it keeps a roof over my head and is buying me my m3 (e46) when i find the right spec one. Also, if i'm lucky, maybe one day it will allow me to forfill me dream of having a fezza
Lynx21 said:
I have no experience at all with trading stock, but in regards to futures, i must admit that i agree that one can forget fundementals. Thats just my personal opinion, afterall there are many paths up the mountain.
Personally i believe that the truth lays within price and volume, because afterall price and volume is a direct result off all the combinations and varible factors within the market.
I also believe that when it comes to trading, i think that sometimes people just make things over complicated and just end up getting lost in their own minds. Sometimes the most simple trades work out the best. One of the trades that i took on friday on ESZ7 is a fine example
The 29th produced a nice balance area (lovely day for my scalping ) We got a single print high at 1478 - give or a take a couple of ticks. Anyway friday opened with a higher intial balance suggesting the market was moving up.
The market traded down into 1478, which as we know from above was the extreme upper edge of the of the previous days balance area. Also 1478.75 was a pivot number too.
If one was just to keep it simple and follow sound market structure then this setup gives us a nice opportunity to get long on the market. Also to comfirm the trade, by reading the tape one could of seen where the sellers became exhuasted and new buyers stepped into the market and become the more dominant of the two forces. A simple candle stick graph is attached and shows the buying point
This is just one of the setups that i play when the right conditions are met. Granted that the setup explained above is the most simple one in my tool box, but it goes to prove my intial point of how sometimes just being simple works best. No doubt there are some city traders here that will laugh at my amature simple ways, but hey i'm 21, it keeps a roof over my head and is buying me my m3 (e46) when i find the right spec one. Also, if i'm lucky, maybe one day it will allow me to forfill me dream of having a fezza
There are people who say that the human mind has an ability to read patterns into data that aren't there. Some of my colleagues were saying recently they could tell the difference between a share price and a random walk. I plotted GM against a random walk and they couldn't tell the difference.Personally i believe that the truth lays within price and volume, because afterall price and volume is a direct result off all the combinations and varible factors within the market.
I also believe that when it comes to trading, i think that sometimes people just make things over complicated and just end up getting lost in their own minds. Sometimes the most simple trades work out the best. One of the trades that i took on friday on ESZ7 is a fine example
The 29th produced a nice balance area (lovely day for my scalping
) We got a single print high at 1478 - give or a take a couple of ticks. Anyway friday opened with a higher intial balance suggesting the market was moving up. The market traded down into 1478, which as we know from above was the extreme upper edge of the of the previous days balance area. Also 1478.75 was a pivot number too.
If one was just to keep it simple and follow sound market structure then this setup gives us a nice opportunity to get long on the market. Also to comfirm the trade, by reading the tape one could of seen where the sellers became exhuasted and new buyers stepped into the market and become the more dominant of the two forces. A simple candle stick graph is attached and shows the buying point
This is just one of the setups that i play when the right conditions are met. Granted that the setup explained above is the most simple one in my tool box, but it goes to prove my intial point of how sometimes just being simple works best. No doubt there are some city traders here that will laugh at my amature simple ways, but hey i'm 21, it keeps a roof over my head and is buying me my m3 (e46) when i find the right spec one. Also, if i'm lucky, maybe one day it will allow me to forfill me dream of having a fezza
I like to think I have an open mind, but all the reading I have done up until now says you can't predict future patterns. The geometric brownian motion idea may be flawed, but a lot of financial models are built on it. Taleb argues that just because there is nothing better doesn't mean we should be using it. Mandelbrot talks a lot about fractals, but gives no real suggestions of how they may be implemented.
Some arguments for and against here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis
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