GDP drop of 0.7% in the second quarter.

[dandarez]

All going to plan then Mr Osborne?

Britain is now officially in its longest double-dip recession on record.

Edited by dandarez on Wednesday 25th July 10:12

[scenario8]

I was a little surprised not to find a thread on this topic already running here earlier. Maybe the holidays are keeping some posters away.

Surprisingly poor performance last quarter. Not good news at all.

[oyster]

Unemployment falling, London jobs market booming, inflation fallen to within target - are these poor GDP numbers believable?

There must be meltdown happening in the North.

[dandarez]

I was wondering why no one had responded quickly.

Perhaps it doesn't affect most PHs

[dandarez]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

BUT the thing is this drop, this large, was not expected nor predicted.
I hear they're blaming the rain now... and the Jubilee extra hol, ffs!
Like leaves on the line caused the trains to halt.

[plasticpig]

The extra bank holiday didn't help.

[Jasandjules]

It's going to take a long time to recover from the Labour waste for years.

[baz1985]

It doesn't mean too much, until the figures are recalculated next month.

[ewenm]

After continual growth of 2%-6% between 1993 and 2007 ( source) why do people get so upset about a few quarters of contraction at <1%?

Just use the reserves you built up in the good years to cover these lean quarters. Everyone did do that didn't they? Prudent financial management and all that.

[Digga]

oyster said:

There must be meltdown happening in the North.

Certainly in construction there is, the polarity is incredibly pronounced IMHO. Look at all the negative stories here, the pre-packs and business failures and see where they are located: http://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/index/l...

The weather has played a part; http://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/ra... but there are other factors that cannot be ignored.

[Legend83]

ewenm said:

After continual growth of 2%-6% between 1993 and 2007 ( source) why do people get so upset about a few quarters of contraction at <1%?

Just use the reserves you built up in the good years to cover these lean quarters. Everyone did do that didn't they? Prudent financial management and all that.

Depressing but .

[Digga]

Legend83 said:

ewenm said:

After continual growth of 2%-6% between 1993 and 2007 ( source) why do people get so upset about a few quarters of contraction at <1%?

Just use the reserves you built up in the good years to cover these lean quarters. Everyone did do that didn't they? Prudent financial management and all that.

Depressing but .

Yes and no.

Certain sectors will have seen higher than average drops and yet not enjoyed growth as high as average in the good years. There are also sectors that are experiencing a 'perfect storm' - such as retail, who have the burden of rent & rates, plus online competition and recently the poor weather - some of which is predictable but is nevertheless tough luck.

[Adrian W]

Nearly everyone I deal with, customers and suppliers say it all fell off a cliff in June and hasn't recovered

[Gargamel]

These are only the official figures

Lucky the Government are kept out of the un official economy - which I suspect is doing ok at the moment

[clockworks]

Some people are blaming the extra bank holiday, and I can understand that.
Average of 63 weekdays per quarter, so one lost day is a loss of 1.58%.
Of course, not everything stops on a bank holiday, and some stuff catches up later. The different figures from different sectors seems to reflect that. Retail and services did better (or less worse) than manufacturing.

What I don't get is why everyone seems to be so upset about low growth, or a very small contraction. Does zero growth over a few years really affect the average person? The people at the top of the tree might lose out (fewer opportunities to bleed the rest of us), but that's probably a good thing.
The majority will be suffering a small drop in disposable income while we pay off the national debt, but once (if) that's sorted, zero growth and negligible inflation must be good for everyone except the leeches that got us into this mess in the first place.

[Esseesse]

clockworks said:

What I don't get is why everyone seems to be so upset about low growth, or a very small contraction. Does zero growth over a few years really affect the average person? The people at the top of the tree might lose out (fewer opportunities to bleed the rest of us), but that's probably a good thing.
The majority will be suffering a small drop in disposable income while we pay off the national debt, but once (if) that's sorted, zero growth and negligible inflation must be good for everyone except the leeches that got us into this mess in the first place.

Isn't the UK population increasing by something like 3%/year? In which case 3% growth/year needed for 0% per person.

Edit: Actually something like 0.7% I think, but still.

Edited by Esseesse on Wednesday 25th July 11:47

[don4l]

Adrian W said:

Nearly everyone I deal with, customers and suppliers say it all fell off a cliff in June and hasn't recovered

That's odd. Although my company had a bad first quarter (Apr-Jun), business has taken off in July.

Unemployment has fallen, and the ftse 250 are paying good dividends at the moment.


I'm feeling quietly confident at the moment, but I do agree with Tonker. We need to get government spending under control. Our welfare, foreign aid and climate change spending all need to be drastically reduced.

Unfortunately, Cameron doesn't have the cojones to stand up to the LibDems. So nothing will happen.

Don
--

[ewenm]

Esseesse said:

Isn't the UK population increasing by something like 3%/year? In which case 3% growth/year needed for 0% per person.

Edit: Actually something like 0.7% I think, but still.

GDP growth was way ahead of that 0.7% "break-even" figure for 15 years (link above). That should allow for minor contraction/adjustment now without disaster. Of course, 15 years of constant growth is an obvious reason for people (and those in power specifically) to bank on continual growth now and hence be in a mess when reality struck.

[Deva Link]

Adrian W said:

Nearly everyone I deal with, customers and suppliers say it all fell off a cliff in June and hasn't recovered

I deal in hi-tech, computer related stuff, it's always a little difficult to tell how things are going into summer as a lot of activity goes into a sort of holding mode until Sept, but I've become terrified of talking to customers as project after project seems to be getting cancelled, or at least drastically reduced in scale (which means the same work for us but much less revenue).

[anonymous-user]

Digga said:

Legend83 said:

ewenm said:

After continual growth of 2%-6% between 1993 and 2007 ( source) why do people get so upset about a few quarters of contraction at <1%?

Just use the reserves you built up in the good years to cover these lean quarters. Everyone did do that didn't they? Prudent financial management and all that.

Depressing but .

Yes and no.

Certain sectors will have seen higher than average drops and yet not enjoyed growth as high as average in the good years. There are also sectors that are experiencing a 'perfect storm' - such as retail, who have the burden of rent & rates, plus online competition and recently the poor weather - some of which is predictable but is nevertheless tough luck.

But, generally on the basis that the GDP is calculated those growth figures were seen. Not only is the recent fall not too alarming in that context but, given that those growth figures were achieved on spurious activity that should never have happened, today's GDP is not that bad.

Unless you are Ed Balls of course, in which case they are disastrous and wouldn't have happened on his watch.