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Laughingman21

Original Poster:

564 posts

80 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
I've been thinking about putting some money into an ISA and investing in a few shares, but I have zero experience in doing this. I've read the Naked Trader, but I'm now looking for any other books that people recommend or any other general advice.

raptor600

1,356 posts

15 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
These two are essential reading:

Warren Buffet - Snowball

Financial Times Guide to Investing

Highly recommended by me and many others smile

walm

3,441 posts

71 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
I am a broken record on this but I always recommend putting it in an index tracker and forgetting about it.

The maths is simple.
You won't outperform the index through anything other than luck.

Even if you COULD match the index you would be doing what... 10 trades a year minimum....
That is £100 in costs at least which is 1.0% on £10k.

The compounding effect of achieving say 6% a year rather than 7% a year is pretty dramatic.
Your £10k would be £17.9k not £19.7k.


Now - if you view it as a hobby rather than investing and don't mind spending money on that hobby (or rather: generating lower returns) then by all means trade away. But don't kid yourself that you are somehow "investing" or "saving". Sure you are saving money - but not as much as you could.


I should point out that I am biased.
I find it really offensive that people keep thinking that they can read a couple of books and dabble in investing and somehow get rich quick.
I spend all day every day picking stocks and have done for over a decade. I am pretty good at it but I am still very happy to beat the index. It is incredibly hard and your competition is very tough.

iphonedyou

2,569 posts

26 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
walm said:
I find it really offensive that people keep thinking that they can read a couple of books and dabble in investing and somehow get rich quick.
I spend all day every day picking stocks and have done for over a decade. I am pretty good at it but I am still very happy to beat the index. It is incredibly hard and your competition is very tough.
Why would you be offended? If it's that difficult, then they're naive. If they beat your returns, they're either lucky, or better than you.

smile

walm

3,441 posts

71 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
iphonedyou said:
Why would you be offended?
I am offended because the implication is that, while it took me 5+ years of 80+hr weeks before I knew my arse from my elbow investment-wise (not including the masters) and I am still learning every day, my job could be done by anyone who reads a couple of books.

Since this is PH presumably you are a company director iphonedyou? wink
Probably one of the exec too, not just a non-exec.
How would you feel if someone came up to you and said, "I could run your company. I have read Company Directing for Dummies and everything!"

No offence to the OP. I am sure he is super smart but it just isn't THAT easy!

Even worse than that - people put on a couple of trades and make out like a bandit.
Then they think they are Buffett Jnr. It's PROOF that I am an idiot!
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Fittster

14,939 posts

82 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
walm said:
I am a broken record on this but I always recommend putting it in an index tracker and forgetting about it.
Ah, but which which index should you track?

db10

33 posts

132 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
maybe people are lucky - i bought BP shares when they were down (not rock bottom, but at a stupid level just after the oil spill) - I sold (not when they were at their highest) and made 20% return in less than 12 months.

am i lucky? maybe, but it didnt take a genius to see that the BP share price undervalued the company as a whole and it would bounce back.

im sure you have worked hard to get what knowledge you have, but dont put others down just to make yourself feel better about it.

i guess your next missive will be about what i do for a living and whether Im a director of my own company? and therefore whether I am succesful or not in your opinion?

Use Psychology

9,799 posts

61 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
walm said:
I am offended because the implication is that, while it took me 5+ years of 80+hr weeks before I knew my arse from my elbow investment-wise (not including the masters) and I am still learning every day, my job could be done by anyone who reads a couple of books.
I'm not offended by people who reckon they can synthesise drugs or make explosives in their garages. I just think they're idiots for trying without knowledge/experience. I wouldn't try either, or least I would try, but not use the things I make. That's after about 10 years of serious synthetic chemistry training. I know enough now to know lots of stuff, but more importantly, I know what I don't know.

What you're forgetting is that you know enough to know your 'known unknowns'. People who read two books don't know enough to identify them. Their unknowns are unknown. So they think they're being reasonable.

so to take offence at people participating in an activity with little experience of it? bit weird. To think they're being a bit silly: no problem.

walm

3,441 posts

71 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
db10 said:
maybe people are lucky - i bought BP shares when they were down (not rock bottom, but at a stupid level just after the oil spill) - I sold (not when they were at their highest) and made 20% return in less than 12 months.

am i lucky? maybe, but it didnt take a genius to see that the BP share price undervalued the company as a whole and it would bounce back.

im sure you have worked hard to get what knowledge you have, but dont put others down just to make yourself feel better about it.

i guess your next missive will be about what i do for a living and whether Im a director of my own company? and therefore whether I am succesful or not in your opinion?
db10 - I suspect you might be illustrating my point really well.

I also did this trade so I would be interested in your methodology.
How did you define a "stupid" level - had you taken into account the $32bn provision they took against Macondo?
When you say it "undervalued" the company what value did you put on the rest of the assets and how did you value the probability that the eventual cost of the spill would be greater or less than $32bn?
Was it EBITDA multiples? PE? FCF? Relative or absolute?
Did you hedge the oil price exposure? What long term oil price did you use to value the producing assets?
How did YOU value the clean up cost of the most serious environmental disaster in history and potential litigation?

At what price did you sell - why did you think BP was expensive there?

How much of your portfolio did you put in the trade? 10%, 20%, 100%?

If you just saw a stock that had fallen a lot owing to bad press then yes, you were lucky. And that's great.

Please be clear - I am NOT trying to put anyone down.
I am not trying to make myself feel better about working hard. I feel absolutely fine about it.

I am genuinely trying to offer advice that I firmly believe will save the OP money.

chris7676

2,265 posts

89 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
walm said:
The maths is simple.
You won't outperform the index through anything other than luck.
What maths says you cannot do better than 'the average'?
Even various indicies perform differently, it's about asset allocation coupled with timing, a strategy that works for you and surely a bit of talent + discipline. But it's not easy and definitely not pure science.

walm

3,441 posts

71 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
chris7676 said:
What maths says you cannot do better than 'the average'?
The maths that shows that the majority of fund managers (full time professionals) fail to outperform.

The maths that says that transaction costs are going to put you at a material disadvantage.

The maths that says that you don't have access to management, to a bloomberg terminal, to sell side research, to proprietary market research.

The maths that says that YOU HAVE A DAY JOB!


Again - why would you think that reading a couple of books would make you better than full time veterans?
How is it that this is perfectly accepted for stock picking but literally NO OTHER PROFESSION????

Fittster

14,939 posts

82 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
walm said:
The maths that shows that the majority of fund managers (full time professionals) fail to outperform.

The maths that says that transaction costs are going to put you at a material disadvantage.

The maths that says that you don't have access to management, to a bloomberg terminal, to sell side research, to proprietary market research.

The maths that says that YOU HAVE A DAY JOB!


Again - why would you think that reading a couple of books would make you better than full time veterans?
How is it that this is perfectly accepted for stock picking but literally NO OTHER PROFESSION????
I think it's worth considering that maybe a black and white solution (tracker v self-selection) isn't necessarily the right approach.

I fully accept the argument about trackers (although the question of exactly which tracker someone should choose hasn't been answered) but you don't have to invest all your savings there. You could consider a monthly investment in a tracker while keeping some cash available to speculate on shares if you think the market offers a particular good opportunity (Cape shares anyone?).

That offers the sensible solution (although tacking the market won't make you rich, as I'm sure investors in Tokyo could tell you), while allowing some fun with speculation.

db10

33 posts

132 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
walm said:
db10 - I suspect you might be illustrating my point really well.

I also did this trade so I would be interested in your methodology.
How did you define a "stupid" level - had you taken into account the $32bn provision they took against Macondo?
When you say it "undervalued" the company what value did you put on the rest of the assets and how did you value the probability that the eventual cost of the spill would be greater or less than $32bn?
Was it EBITDA multiples? PE? FCF? Relative or absolute?
Did you hedge the oil price exposure? What long term oil price did you use to value the producing assets?
How did YOU value the clean up cost of the most serious environmental disaster in history and potential litigation?

At what price did you sell - why did you think BP was expensive there?

How much of your portfolio did you put in the trade? 10%, 20%, 100%?

If you just saw a stock that had fallen a lot owing to bad press then yes, you were lucky. And that's great.

Please be clear - I am NOT trying to put anyone down.
I am not trying to make myself feel better about working hard. I feel absolutely fine about it.

I am genuinely trying to offer advice that I firmly believe will save the OP money.
im not sure whether you proved my point or not - fundamentally the share price versus net asset value was out of whack so it was clearly undervalued. did I believe that the company had adqueately provided for the oil spill - yes, I believe the auditors would have been over prudent and therefore they were overprovided.

I put 95% of the amount of money i put into shares into it (i dont hold many shares) - i sold because i was forced to (independence rules and my job) so the timing of the sale was out of my hands.

i guess what Im trying to say is, you can look at all the charts and metrics you like, but maybe sometimes its easier to look at something as fundamental as net asset value versus market cap and factor in public sentiment = gain?

walm

3,441 posts

71 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
db10 said:
maybe sometimes its easier to look at something as fundamental as net asset value versus market cap and factor in public sentiment = gain?
I wholeheartedly agree with that.
And despite all the mumbo-jumbo I threw into my previous post - under the skin of it - that is what I did.
I just wish those opportunities came along more often!! (Preferably without the horrendous environmental impact too...)

All I am trying to say is that for you or I to have done that trade with confidence then you probably need more than a few books to read.

Frankly perhaps Fittster has the best answer.
Earmark some funds for fun/no-brainer investments and put the rest in a tracker/variety of trackers.

As for the which tracker question, I am not sure.
Personally I avoid the FTSE 100 because I am already so exposed to it through other elements of my life.
If you live and work in the UK then when the FTSE tanks owing to a recession then you feel doubly poor.

I would probably just put it in a world equity index for global exposure.

chris7676

2,265 posts

89 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
walm said:
Again - why would you think that reading a couple of books would make you better than full time veterans?
How is it that this is perfectly accepted for stock picking but literally NO OTHER PROFESSION????
A few good books are surely a very good start.
Who said they will make you great though... ?

DoubleSix

2,521 posts

45 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
I agree with Walm's points and sentiment.

If you do go the tracker route something like IUKD might be a good bet as cyclicals are currently taking a hammering. Although contrarians may take the view that value is on offer in resources for the long term.

I'd be inclined to select a few ETFs covering North America, UK and have a decent chunk of corporate bond ETFs too.

raptor600

1,356 posts

15 months

[news] 
Thursday 2nd August 2012 quote quote all
chris7676 said:
A few good books are surely a very good start.
Who said they will make you great though... ?
+1. It's a start - no one said it would make you great.

Walm seems to have just fabricated a statement so he can argue for the sake of it.

walm

3,441 posts

71 months

[news] 
Thursday 2nd August 2012 quote quote all
raptor600 said:
Walm seems to have just fabricated a statement so he can argue for the sake of it.
I was responding to this part of the OP:
Laughingman21 said:
I've been thinking about putting some money into an ISA and investing in a few shares, but I have zero experience in doing this... any other general advice.
Although in fairness I came for a five minute argument, not the full half hour.


VinceFox

14,284 posts

41 months

[news] 
Thursday 2nd August 2012 quote quote all
walm said:
raptor600 said:
Walm seems to have just fabricated a statement so he can argue for the sake of it.
I was responding to this part of the OP:
Laughingman21 said:
I've been thinking about putting some money into an ISA and investing in a few shares, but I have zero experience in doing this... any other general advice.
Although in fairness I came for a five minute argument, not the full half hour.
No you didnt.

walm

3,441 posts

71 months

[news] 
Thursday 2nd August 2012 quote quote all
VinceFox said:
No you didnt.
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