How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

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gibbon

2,182 posts

206 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
Mr Whippy said:
But everything is finite.

Speculate, growth, peak, correction, speculate, growth etc etc.

Where are we on the curve. I'd say a very big top, or a very wide bottom... which one is up to you to decide.
Indeed, that is true. Who indeed knows.

Everything is indeed finite, except money, they keep printing the stuff. With the EU looking like it will take significant QE steps next, then i think the money will keep flowing into the system for some time yet, and thus I think there may be more hard asset price growth.

We shall see.

Mr Whippy

28,944 posts

240 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
Yeah I agree.

They either inflate the economy to make money less valuable, or they just print more money to do the same.

Difference being with inflation you get a return in a bank account to balance it out. With QE you don't hehe

In that case then buying stuff that is useful (ie, stuff that doesn't depreciate hard) with the money seems a better approach.

Dave

9mm

3,128 posts

209 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
fishballs said:
9mm said:
Interest rates will go up
When they do, rents will not increase to the same extent
Some landlords will find themselves paying for their tenants' accommodation
Some landlords will have to bail
More property will come onto the market
(Affordable) housebuilding will increase
Valuations will decrease

I think the only real question is the extent to which each of the above will happen. My only interest would be in whether I can rent my properties as I would have no mortgages on them. Capital appreciation, which seems to be the get out of jail card for a lot of people, is of no interest to me whatsoever, as I have no interest in >2035. Quoted yields seem like a bit of a joke to me, as they never never appear to take into account things like repairs, maintenance charges, periods where the property is unoccupied, tenancy disputes, unpaid rent, etc.

All of this just tells me that BTL is a possible investment but it's a very long way from a universal and guaranteed solution. Not sure I see any kind of catastrophic crash ahead but I can foresee a period of unpleasant stagnation.
Most of what you have written is pure speculation. The fact is we are in a very benign interest rate environment with low inflation. You won't see 10% interest rates again in your life time would be my best guess. Affordable housing will always lag the demand for teh simple reason there is more money in not so affordable housing. BTL are simply part of a well balanced portfolio. By the way some posters are carrying on they are preparing for WW3 and alien invasion.
Not most, it's all speculation, as is everything you've written.

Mr Whippy

28,944 posts

240 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
fishballs said:
By the way some posters are carrying on they are preparing for WW3 and alien invasion.
hehe

I wonder what people would have written on Pistonheads in the late 38's and early 39's.

Dave

Justayellowbadge

37,057 posts

241 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
Mr Whippy said:
hehe

I wonder what people would have written on Pistonheads in the late 38's and early 39's.

Dave
Hitler's only one man, put me in a room with him and I'll soon sort him out.

The Rover 14 is rubbish.

Has anyone tried this new fangled telegram dating? I'm so lonely.

ClaphamGT3

11,269 posts

242 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
Justayellowbadge said:
Mr Whippy said:
hehe

I wonder what people would have written on Pistonheads in the late 38's and early 39's.

Dave
Hitler's only one man, put me in a room with him and I'll soon sort him out.

The Rover 14 is rubbish.

Has anyone tried this new fangled telegram dating? I'm so lonely.
Hammer whale-meat fritters into his lawn

There would also be a "British Union of Fascists - The Future" thread where people would be defending Oswald to the death as just the sort of plain speaking bloke we need, whilst decrying "Call me Nev" Chamberlain and the gurning union puppet, Clement Atlee

Walford

2,259 posts

165 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
House prices wont come down wages will go up

Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

172 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
Walford said:
House prices wont come down wages will go up
Thanks Meg

XJ40

5,983 posts

212 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
Walford said:
House prices wont come down wages will go up
Well that's what needs to happen isn't it, some meaningful wage inflation would be a great elixir for the economy.

Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

172 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
XJ40 said:
Walford said:
House prices wont come down wages will go up
Well that's what needs to happen isn't it, some meaningful wage inflation would be a great elixir for the economy.
But then base rates would most likely have to rise, which would decimate the housing market

Mr Whippy

28,944 posts

240 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
Higher wages would be immediately offset by higher price of goods/services though... otherwise where does the money come from.

So you earn more, pay more tax, but have the same relative expenditure.


Things won't move properly until the economic markets correct naturally, rather than being tampered with causing all sorts of weird distortions and influences, both good and bad.

Dave

Pork

9,453 posts

233 months

Wednesday 17th December 2014
quotequote all
Derek Chevalier said:
Thanks Meg
hehe

Magog

2,652 posts

188 months

Thursday 18th December 2014
quotequote all
Take your pick, are the Russians In or Out

Mr Whippy

28,944 posts

240 months

Thursday 18th December 2014
quotequote all
If in doubt, buy into the biggest bubble around. That sounds about right, as that is why bubbles get so big and then pop.

Logic dictates that they'll buy into them and then they'll crash.

Dave

z4RRSchris99

11,221 posts

178 months

Thursday 18th December 2014
quotequote all
a lot of the Russians buy into just to clean or safeguard their cash. London property is money laundering central

Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

172 months

Thursday 18th December 2014
quotequote all
Mr Whippy said:
If in doubt, buy into the biggest bubble around.
London?

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Thursday 18th December 2014
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
The thing is Tonks, the chinese, Honkers and Russians will take that Penthouse and pay cash

scenario8

6,554 posts

178 months

Thursday 18th December 2014
quotequote all
And as you know, there are hundreds and hundreds of similar units with similar price tags soon to be released. The older I get the less I understand.

spikeyhead

17,224 posts

196 months

Thursday 18th December 2014
quotequote all
I understand that if I had a few billion in dirty roubles then the way it's currently tanking I'd shift it into anything remotely stable as soon as possible.

z4RRSchris99

11,221 posts

178 months

Thursday 18th December 2014
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
you would have seen my scheme frown

penthouse at Neo sold this year 19.75m to s Brit who saw it in the FT

the views on SE1 towers are great, if you've got a spare hour I'll give you a butchers from 150m up
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