Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 2
Discussion
There is no pause, it is just the effect of the 1998 el nino spike on the trend, according to the BBC 'scientist'. Oh, and the 1Zillion equivalent Hiroshima bombs (their choice of analogy!) of energy that is being eaten by the top 2000m of the oceans every day, or something. Oh, and the only people that think there is a pause are not qualified to comment. I nearly smashed up my bedside radio the other night.
rovermorris999 said:
I would really love it if Davey lost his seat at the next GE.Mr GrimNasty said:
There is no pause, it is just the effect of the 1998 el nino spike on the trend, according to the BBC 'scientist'. Oh, and the 1Zillion equivalent Hiroshima bombs (their choice of analogy!) of energy that is being eaten by the top 2000m of the oceans every day, or something. Oh, and the only people that think there is a pause are not qualified to comment.
Talk about making it up as you go along.That's hilarious but I can appreciate the risk to the radio.
chris watton said:
I would really love it if Davey lost his seat at the next GE.
Fingers crossed.TransverseTight said:
Have you all been keeping an eye on caol mining and oil drilling and refinery accidents too? Just to keep the balance....
Funny you should ask...when my son was working for British Coal one summer (part of his mining degree) he had to choose a subject for a project. He was 'advised' in no uncertain terms that any subject appertaining to large scale underground automation was verboten, and this policy has been current since about 1757. Any whiff of increased productivity without a rise in employment was dismissed.Which is a shame because doing 12 hour shifts in 30deg heat underground is actually quite ball breaking, but a lot safer now than ten or twenty years ago. Aside from the steelies and hard hats and hi-vis vests, all other clothing is removed, so you do get a few cuts and bruises just moving around, let alone working.
But what if they'd gone auto back in 1970/1980/1990 - arguably there would be more coal mined here, with more NUM members still active, and earning some export dollars too. Perhaps.
The unions were keen to dwell on their contribution to mine safety, but unable to embrace efficiency and productivity with a view to the longer game. Or dinosaurs if you prefer.
With approximately the same numerical clout as attribution folk in SPMs, this must be a consensus 
It's a researcher list detailing some of the scientists who have predicted a solar grand minimum and climate change to a period of long lasting cold weather based upon solar activity decreasing to Dalton or Maunder levels by ~2020.
1. Dr Habibullo I. Abdussamatov: Russian Academy of Scientists. Head of space research at the Pulkova Observatory, St. Petersburg.
Comment: RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006: “Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century – when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland – could start in 2012-2105 and reach its peak in 2055-2060….He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today….”
2. Dr David Archibald. Summa Development Limited. (Australia).
From his paper: Archibald, D.C., (2006), Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and predicted climate response, Energy and Environment, Vol.17, No.1.
Comment from paper: “Based on a solar maxima of approximately 50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5C is predicted to 2020 equating to the experience of the Dalton Minimum.”
3. Dr V.N. Obridko and Dr O.G.Badalyan, Russia, Dr.J.Sykora. Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovak Republic.
From their paper: Balalyan, O.G., V.N. Obridko, and J. Sykora, (2000), Brightness of the coronal green line and prediction for activity cycles 23 and 24, Solar Physics, 199: pp.421-435.
Comment from paper: “ A slow increase in (intensity of coronal green line) in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number (number of sunspots) cycle 24 with the maximum W~50 at 2010-2011.” (Note: a 50 sunspot level is a Dalton class minimum)
4. Dr B. P. Bonev, Dr. Kaloyan M. Penev, Dr. Stefano Sello.
From their paper: Bonev, B.P., et. al., (2004), Long term solar variability and the solar cycle in the 21st century, The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 605, pp.L81-L84.
Comment from their paper: “…we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in long term solar variability.”
5. John L. Casey, Director, Space and Science Research Center. Orlando, Florida
From the center’s research report: Casey, John L. (2008), The existence of ‘relational cycles’ of solar activity on a multi-decadal to centennial scale, as significant models of climate change on earth. SSRC Research Report 1-2008 – The RC Theory, www.spaceandscience.net.
Comments from the research report:
“ As a result of the theory, it can be predicted that the next solar minimum may start within the next 3-14 years, and last 2-3 solar cycles or approximately 22-33 years. …It is estimated that there will be a global temperature drop on average between 1.0 and 1.5 degrees C, if not lower, at least on the scale of the Dalton Minimum. …This forecast next solar minimum will likely be accompanied by the coldest period globally for the past 200 years and as such, has the potential to result in world wide, agricultural, social, and economic disruption.”
6. Dr Peter Harris. Engineer, retired, Queensland, Australia.
From his analysis of glacial and interglacial cycles he concludes: “…we can say there is a probability of 94% of imminent global cooling and the beginning of the coming ice age.”
7. Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera. Researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
His comments from his research released in August 2008: “…in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts for 60-80 years.”
8. Dr. Y.T.Hong, H.B. Jiang, T.S. Liu, L.P.Zhou, J.Beer, H.D. Li, X.T.Leng, B.Hong, and X.G. Qin.
From their paper: Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in 6,000-year (isotope) O18 time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. The Holocene 10.1 (2000) pp. 1-7.
The Chinese team of researchers observed “…a striking correspondence of climate events to nearly all of the apparent solar activity changes.”
In showing O18 isotope measurements were high during the coldest periods they concluded, “If the trend after AD 1950 continues…the next maximum of the peat O18 (and therefore cold maximum) would be expected between about AD 2000 and AD 2050.”
9. Dr Boris Komitov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of
Astronomy, and Dr. Vladimir Kaftan: Central Research Institute of Geodesy, Moscow.
From their paper: Komitov, B., and V. Kaftan, (2004), The sunspot activity in the last two millennia on the basis of indirect and instrumented indexes: time series models and their extrapolations for the 21st century, paper presented at the International Astronomical Union Symposium No. 223.
Comment from paper: “It follows from their extrapolations for the 21st century that a supercenturial solar minimum will be occurring during the next few decades….It will be similar in magnitude to the Dalton minimum, but probably longer as the last one.”
10. Dr Theodor Landscheidt (1927- 2004), Schroeter Institiute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Canada)
Among his comments from many years of research on solar climate forcing include: “Contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man made warming as high as 5.8(degrees)C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”
11. Dr Ernest Njau: University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
From his paper: Njau, E., (2005), Expected halt in current global warming trend?, Renewable Energy, Vol.30, Issue 5, pp.743-752.
Comment from paper: “… the mean ‘global temperature variations reaches the next peak about 2005 after which it will expectedly be on a decreasing trend. Finally it is shown that…Greenland is currently in an ongoing cooling trend which is expected to last up to at least the year 2035.”
12. Dr Tim Patterson: Dept. of Earth Sciences, Carleton Univ., Can.
From an article in the Calgary Times: May 18, 2007. Indeed, one of the more interesting, if not alarming statements Patterson made before the Friends of Science luncheon is satellite data shows that by the year 2020 the next solar cycle is going to be solar cycle 25 – the weakest one since the Little Ice Age (that started in the 13th century and ended around 1860) a time when people living in London, England, used to walk on a frozen Thames River and food was scarcer. Patterson: “This should be a great strategic concern in Canada because nobody is farming north of us.” In other words, Canada – the great breadbasket of the world - just might not be able to grow grains in much of the prairies.
13. Drs Ken K. Schatten and W.K.Tobiska.
From their paper presented at the 34th Solar Physics Division meeting of the American Astronomical Society, June 2003:
“The surprising result of these long range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.”
14 Dr Oleg Sorokhtin. Merited Scientist of Russia and Fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and researcher at the Oceanology Institute.
From recent news articles, regarding the next climate change he has said: “Astrophysics know two solar cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of irradiating solar surface….Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041,and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.”
15. Drs Ian Wilson, Bob Carter, and I.A. Waite.
From their paper: Does a Spin-Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle? Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 25(2) 85-93 June 2008).
Dr Wilson adds the following clarification:
“It supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20-30 years. On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1-2 C.”
16. Drs Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian. Nanjing Normal University, China
From their paper in Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 95,115-121: Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years.
“… we believe global climate changes will be (seen) in a trend of falling (temperatures) in the following 20 years.”
It's a researcher list detailing some of the scientists who have predicted a solar grand minimum and climate change to a period of long lasting cold weather based upon solar activity decreasing to Dalton or Maunder levels by ~2020.
1. Dr Habibullo I. Abdussamatov: Russian Academy of Scientists. Head of space research at the Pulkova Observatory, St. Petersburg.
Comment: RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006: “Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century – when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland – could start in 2012-2105 and reach its peak in 2055-2060….He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today….”
2. Dr David Archibald. Summa Development Limited. (Australia).
From his paper: Archibald, D.C., (2006), Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and predicted climate response, Energy and Environment, Vol.17, No.1.
Comment from paper: “Based on a solar maxima of approximately 50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5C is predicted to 2020 equating to the experience of the Dalton Minimum.”
3. Dr V.N. Obridko and Dr O.G.Badalyan, Russia, Dr.J.Sykora. Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovak Republic.
From their paper: Balalyan, O.G., V.N. Obridko, and J. Sykora, (2000), Brightness of the coronal green line and prediction for activity cycles 23 and 24, Solar Physics, 199: pp.421-435.
Comment from paper: “ A slow increase in (intensity of coronal green line) in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number (number of sunspots) cycle 24 with the maximum W~50 at 2010-2011.” (Note: a 50 sunspot level is a Dalton class minimum)
4. Dr B. P. Bonev, Dr. Kaloyan M. Penev, Dr. Stefano Sello.
From their paper: Bonev, B.P., et. al., (2004), Long term solar variability and the solar cycle in the 21st century, The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 605, pp.L81-L84.
Comment from their paper: “…we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in long term solar variability.”
5. John L. Casey, Director, Space and Science Research Center. Orlando, Florida
From the center’s research report: Casey, John L. (2008), The existence of ‘relational cycles’ of solar activity on a multi-decadal to centennial scale, as significant models of climate change on earth. SSRC Research Report 1-2008 – The RC Theory, www.spaceandscience.net.
Comments from the research report:
“ As a result of the theory, it can be predicted that the next solar minimum may start within the next 3-14 years, and last 2-3 solar cycles or approximately 22-33 years. …It is estimated that there will be a global temperature drop on average between 1.0 and 1.5 degrees C, if not lower, at least on the scale of the Dalton Minimum. …This forecast next solar minimum will likely be accompanied by the coldest period globally for the past 200 years and as such, has the potential to result in world wide, agricultural, social, and economic disruption.”
6. Dr Peter Harris. Engineer, retired, Queensland, Australia.
From his analysis of glacial and interglacial cycles he concludes: “…we can say there is a probability of 94% of imminent global cooling and the beginning of the coming ice age.”
7. Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera. Researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
His comments from his research released in August 2008: “…in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts for 60-80 years.”
8. Dr. Y.T.Hong, H.B. Jiang, T.S. Liu, L.P.Zhou, J.Beer, H.D. Li, X.T.Leng, B.Hong, and X.G. Qin.
From their paper: Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in 6,000-year (isotope) O18 time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. The Holocene 10.1 (2000) pp. 1-7.
The Chinese team of researchers observed “…a striking correspondence of climate events to nearly all of the apparent solar activity changes.”
In showing O18 isotope measurements were high during the coldest periods they concluded, “If the trend after AD 1950 continues…the next maximum of the peat O18 (and therefore cold maximum) would be expected between about AD 2000 and AD 2050.”
9. Dr Boris Komitov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of
Astronomy, and Dr. Vladimir Kaftan: Central Research Institute of Geodesy, Moscow.
From their paper: Komitov, B., and V. Kaftan, (2004), The sunspot activity in the last two millennia on the basis of indirect and instrumented indexes: time series models and their extrapolations for the 21st century, paper presented at the International Astronomical Union Symposium No. 223.
Comment from paper: “It follows from their extrapolations for the 21st century that a supercenturial solar minimum will be occurring during the next few decades….It will be similar in magnitude to the Dalton minimum, but probably longer as the last one.”
10. Dr Theodor Landscheidt (1927- 2004), Schroeter Institiute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Canada)
Among his comments from many years of research on solar climate forcing include: “Contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man made warming as high as 5.8(degrees)C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”
11. Dr Ernest Njau: University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
From his paper: Njau, E., (2005), Expected halt in current global warming trend?, Renewable Energy, Vol.30, Issue 5, pp.743-752.
Comment from paper: “… the mean ‘global temperature variations reaches the next peak about 2005 after which it will expectedly be on a decreasing trend. Finally it is shown that…Greenland is currently in an ongoing cooling trend which is expected to last up to at least the year 2035.”
12. Dr Tim Patterson: Dept. of Earth Sciences, Carleton Univ., Can.
From an article in the Calgary Times: May 18, 2007. Indeed, one of the more interesting, if not alarming statements Patterson made before the Friends of Science luncheon is satellite data shows that by the year 2020 the next solar cycle is going to be solar cycle 25 – the weakest one since the Little Ice Age (that started in the 13th century and ended around 1860) a time when people living in London, England, used to walk on a frozen Thames River and food was scarcer. Patterson: “This should be a great strategic concern in Canada because nobody is farming north of us.” In other words, Canada – the great breadbasket of the world - just might not be able to grow grains in much of the prairies.
13. Drs Ken K. Schatten and W.K.Tobiska.
From their paper presented at the 34th Solar Physics Division meeting of the American Astronomical Society, June 2003:
“The surprising result of these long range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.”
14 Dr Oleg Sorokhtin. Merited Scientist of Russia and Fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and researcher at the Oceanology Institute.
From recent news articles, regarding the next climate change he has said: “Astrophysics know two solar cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of irradiating solar surface….Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041,and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.”
15. Drs Ian Wilson, Bob Carter, and I.A. Waite.
From their paper: Does a Spin-Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle? Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 25(2) 85-93 June 2008).
Dr Wilson adds the following clarification:
“It supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20-30 years. On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1-2 C.”
16. Drs Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian. Nanjing Normal University, China
From their paper in Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 95,115-121: Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years.
“… we believe global climate changes will be (seen) in a trend of falling (temperatures) in the following 20 years.”
rovermorris999 said:
Pah! What do scientists know anyway? Unless they're on message then they must be listened to.
Indeed, clearly all these scientists must be funded by big oil and therefore biased. As we all know only those paid for by non-big oil (such as govts who make millions off the AGW scam) are unbiased, because having all your grants (and thus employment) removed if there is no AGW, is no incentive at all.
Dr Karl, this is the fool that nearly destroyed my radio, track 'global warming pause' 'overwhelming evidence' is the closest to what he was saying the other night.
https://itunes.apple.com/ml/podcast/dr-karls-great...
https://itunes.apple.com/ml/podcast/dr-karls-great...
rovermorris999 said:
The Don of Croy said:
I regret to say, but imho the powers that be will simply latch onto 'global cooling' and continue their obsession with wealth re-distribution. Without blinking an eye.
True. But they might incentivise us to buy V8s
Mr GrimNasty said:
Dr Karl, this is the fool that nearly destroyed my radio, track 'global warming pause' 'overwhelming evidence' is the closest to what he was saying the other night.
https://itunes.apple.com/ml/podcast/dr-karls-great...
https://itunes.apple.com/ml/podcast/dr-karls-great...
@notayesmansecon: Ed Davey spends £1 billion of UK energy consumers money to cover up his mistakes and calls it "great news!"
http://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2014/12/...
http://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2014/12/...
turbobloke said:
Mr GrimNasty said:
Dr Karl, this is the fool that nearly destroyed my radio, track 'global warming pause' 'overwhelming evidence' is the closest to what he was saying the other night.
https://itunes.apple.com/ml/podcast/dr-karls-great...
https://itunes.apple.com/ml/podcast/dr-karls-great...
If so, he's hilarious, blustering through many answers he doesn't have a clue about. Airflow over a wing section, creating lift, as an example. Among hundreds...
Or is it someone else? I don't do Apple.
Andy Zarse said:
@notayesmansecon: Ed Davey spends £1 billion of UK energy consumers money to cover up his mistakes and calls it "great news!"
http://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2014/12/...
!!!http://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2014/12/...
Lucky us
I laughed out loud when I heard this on the radio this morning.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-3054...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-3054...
BBC said:
Getting ships to generate smaller bubbles as they sail across the oceans could counteract the impact of climate change, a study suggests.
...
If we were to successfully put these generators on to these ships, and the ships just went about their normal business, we did find there was potential to reduce the surface temperature by about 0.5C
...
If we were to successfully put these generators on to these ships, and the ships just went about their normal business, we did find there was potential to reduce the surface temperature by about 0.5C
mybrainhurts said:
Is that the Aussie who does a guest radio phone-in on Radio 5 in the middle of the night?
If so, he's hilarious, blustering through many answers he doesn't have a clue about. Airflow over a wing section, creating lift, as an example. Among hundreds...
Or is it someone else? I don't do Apple.
Yes it is the same guy. He's entertaining enough, but I was disappointed to hear he buys into the global warming religion.If so, he's hilarious, blustering through many answers he doesn't have a clue about. Airflow over a wing section, creating lift, as an example. Among hundreds...
Or is it someone else? I don't do Apple.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Kruszelnicki
alock said:
I laughed out loud when I heard this on the radio this morning.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-3054...
Yes me too! Just as I thought the depths of insanity couldn't be deeper, up this pops!http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-3054...
BBC said:
Getting ships to generate smaller bubbles as they sail across the oceans could counteract the impact of climate change, a study suggests.
...
If we were to successfully put these generators on to these ships, and the ships just went about their normal business, we did find there was potential to reduce the surface temperature by about 0.5C
...
If we were to successfully put these generators on to these ships, and the ships just went about their normal business, we did find there was potential to reduce the surface temperature by about 0.5C
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff