Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Author
Discussion

Mermaid

21,492 posts

170 months

Thursday 30th October 2014
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The Catalyst then.

Gargamel

14,958 posts

260 months

Thursday 30th October 2014
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Interesting that none of this is being reported. I have previously suggested the a Black Swan of some description will be the thing to tip the confidence in the Eurozone Economic policy.

I still think investor sentiment can shift very quickly, especially if a key debtor looks like it is in disintegration.

House of cards.

rovermorris999

5,195 posts

188 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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We live in 'interesting' times. What's amazing is that the general populace is more interested in who wins Strictly and who makes the best cake. I wonder why the mainstream media don't make more of it? It's a good job I'm not prone to the wearing of tin-foil hats.

DJRC

23,563 posts

235 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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I only know because I work with pretty much half the Spanish ex pat community. Suffice to say if Spain was hoping it's next generation of bright young things was going to drag it upwards then it's really not! Anyone with brains under 30 has scarpered. You want to know who is charge of a lot of the Galileo prog? The Spanish. Who is in charge of the control dishes around the world? The Spanish! Spanish industry is supplying both sides of the fence in a major major political work share and "help" programme. And they are v v worried about their country.

Digga

40,207 posts

282 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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Presumably, hot on the heels of a 'yes'in Catalonia would be similar in the fiercely indepenent Basque region?

rovermorris999

5,195 posts

188 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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And then the Jocks would be back for another go.

wc98

10,334 posts

139 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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rovermorris999 said:
We live in 'interesting' times. What's amazing is that the general populace is more interested in who wins Strictly and who makes the best cake. I wonder why the mainstream media don't make more of it? It's a good job I'm not prone to the wearing of tin-foil hats.
despite the ever widening wealth gap those in the lower income brackets are not starving,have roofs over their heads and can watch the sort of program you mention on council telly,so they are not unhappy enough to start burning st. there is very little true poverty in the uk ,as long as that remains the case ,they will neither care,nor be aware of the interesting times you mention.

the catalyst for unrest in the uk may well be power outages this winter when they can no longer watch telly ,and find out the reason is down to billions being spunked on windfarms at the behest of the green brigade and how much camerons fil earns from the scam smile

Esseesse

8,969 posts

207 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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DJRC said:
I only know because I work with pretty much half the Spanish ex pat community. Suffice to say if Spain was hoping it's next generation of bright young things was going to drag it upwards then it's really not! Anyone with brains under 30 has scarpered. You want to know who is charge of a lot of the Galileo prog? The Spanish. Who is in charge of the control dishes around the world? The Spanish! Spanish industry is supplying both sides of the fence in a major major political work share and "help" programme. And they are v v worried about their country.
Interesting. I didn't realise the Catalonian thing was this significant. I knew there were many who wanted to be independent, but didn't know when the vote was or how strong the voice to leave was.

Edited by Esseesse on Friday 31st October 09:34

rovermorris999

5,195 posts

188 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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Am I right in thinking this is an unofficial referendum run by the Catalan government against the wishes of Madrid?

Esseesse

8,969 posts

207 months

Friday 31st October 2014
quotequote all
rovermorris999 said:
Am I right in thinking this is an unofficial referendum run by the Catalan government against the wishes of Madrid?
Yes I think so. And it seems like Madrid has tried to stop them holding an unofficial referendum.

rovermorris999

5,195 posts

188 months

Friday 31st October 2014
quotequote all
If there is a high turnout and a 'yes' then what next? Time to buy some popcorn and get comfortable.

jurbie

2,339 posts

200 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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rovermorris999 said:
I wonder why the mainstream media don't make more of it? It's a good job I'm not prone to the wearing of tin-foil hats.
There is no conspiracy, the mainstream media are as clueless as the population. A couple of weeks ago the business reporter on the Radio 2 drive time programme, which you would think would be a great conduit for getting this sort of stuff out to the masses, was amazed to learn that the Eurozone crisis was still ongoing. I believe her quote was along the line of, "I thought we sorted all this out a couple of years ago?"



turbobloke

103,744 posts

259 months

Friday 31st October 2014
quotequote all
jurbie said:
rovermorris999 said:
I wonder why the mainstream media don't make more of it? It's a good job I'm not prone to the wearing of tin-foil hats.
There is no conspiracy, the mainstream media are as clueless as the population. A couple of weeks ago the business reporter on the Radio 2 drive time programme, which you would think would be a great conduit for getting this sort of stuff out to the masses, was amazed to learn that the Eurozone crisis was still ongoing. I believe her quote was along the line of, "I thought we sorted all this out a couple of years ago?"
Blind faith leading the blind beeb staffer.

egor110

16,818 posts

202 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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DJRC said:
I only know because I work with pretty much half the Spanish ex pat community. Suffice to say if Spain was hoping it's next generation of bright young things was going to drag it upwards then it's really not! Anyone with brains under 30 has scarpered. You want to know who is charge of a lot of the Galileo prog? The Spanish. Who is in charge of the control dishes around the world? The Spanish! Spanish industry is supplying both sides of the fence in a major major political work share and "help" programme. And they are v v worried about their country.
That's because the general population are lazy and ranting on a forum is pretty much the most there willing to do.

Look at the student loan protests, fuel protests , farmers protests as soon as it has impact on the general population they moan that they were late getting to work because of the selfish students/farmers.

People are more interested in upgrading there car, electronics than politics.

Crusoe

4,068 posts

230 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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Have we had the note of the first gernam savings bank punshing savers with negative rates yet? Supposed to encourage them to take it out and spend but more likely to get them to take it out and put it in a safe or buy gold etc.

banks said:
Deutsche Skatbank, a division of VR-Bank Altenburger Land. Retail and business customers with over €500,000 on deposit as of November 1 will earn a “negative interest rate” of 0.25%.

Mermaid

21,492 posts

170 months

Friday 31st October 2014
quotequote all
Crusoe said:
Have we had the note of the first gernam savings bank punshing savers with negative rates yet? Supposed to encourage them to take it out and spend but more likely to get them to take it out and put it in a safe or buy gold etc.

banks said:
Deutsche Skatbank, a division of VR-Bank Altenburger Land. Retail and business customers with over €500,000 on deposit as of November 1 will earn a “negative interest rate” of 0.25%.
More QE by the Japanese has cheered the stock markets. ECB soon?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11200...

maffski

1,866 posts

158 months

Friday 31st October 2014
quotequote all
Esseesse said:
rovermorris999 said:
Am I right in thinking this is an unofficial referendum run by the Catalan government against the wishes of Madrid?
Yes I think so. And it seems like Madrid has tried to stop them holding an unofficial referendum.
And they seem to have succeeded, by getting the courts to say you can't have a vote till we've said it's OK.

The Catalans look to have responded with '..fine, we'll cancel the vote... and just have a poll instead. And as we've prepared all these ballots and voting booths and everything was booked for the 9th we may as well just re-use them all.'

No bad feeling there, none at all.

rovermorris999

5,195 posts

188 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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It must be a real headache for Madrid as Catalonia more or less pays the bills in Spain. It would be like London and the south-east here bidding for independence.

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Friday 31st October 2014
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rovermorris999 said:
It must be a real headache for Madrid as Catalonia more or less pays the bills in Spain. It would be like London and the south-east here bidding for independence.
Indeed it must be a real headache. But that is true of so many matters that couod causevtye collapse within the EU keeping this ponzi scheme going that gave me the idea that it was and remains totally unsustainable long term. How any organisation can continue to remain unable to get one year of its accounts authorised by the Auditors and just carry on regardless is beyond me. In the case of the EU there have been (from memory) 19 years of outright refusal by the external auditors to agree the accounts.

That could only happening in the world of politics where the taxpayer has become a mug to be fleeced on all occasions. That is why I have always thought this to be unsustainable and I have no doubt the crunch point is coming. Draghi cannot and is not addressing the fundamental failures within the EU of any of the insolvent sovereign failing states who are only able to pay their debts and borrow more and more and more and to borrow money to pay the interest toon these rising debts because Draghi is printing the money through QE. Yet NO state within the EU is prepared to pay fir any of these rising losses and the failing states cannot pay theselosses theselves. That cannot be sustained and therefore will not be sustained. It is and remains a complete economic nonsense.

The end could come through a number of events. Clearly there is going to be a pretty fair chance that the UKIP position and the support within the UK for that position is going to force a referendum within the UK on continued membership. The way this is shaping up the reality of UK politicians being aboe to sustain membership must be seriously questioned therefore. The Harold Wilson clever tricks will not work when the UK parliament has a number of serious opponents verbalising the concrens of the electorate. The game is changing as we write upon here.

That could be the start of the end but there are so many other ways. One of the failing states may implode if Catelonia within Spain, decides they are going, or another EU state decide to pull out. Once the rumble starts there will be no stopping the reaction in the markets. I have never wanted to see this but I have always been most seriously concerned that the fundamentals of the EU are not right and never have been right.

I find the ease of working and travelling and the freedom of movement and financial freedom massively beneficial. But the whole edifice is based on a nonsense financially and I cannot see how lending Billions to the likes of Greece, Portugal and Spain who are visibly withering as economic partners when they can afford neither the capital loaned nor the interest theron just daft.

In on sequence this is going to fail. Real question is how and when. I suspect before very much longer because the complete unsustainability of this nonsense is beginning to become appreciated. Interesting times indeed.

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

246 months

Friday 31st October 2014
quotequote all
Mermaid said:
Crusoe said:
Have we had the note of the first gernam savings bank punshing savers with negative rates yet? Supposed to encourage them to take it out and spend but more likely to get them to take it out and put it in a safe or buy gold etc.

banks said:
Deutsche Skatbank, a division of VR-Bank Altenburger Land. Retail and business customers with over €500,000 on deposit as of November 1 will earn a “negative interest rate” of 0.25%.
More QE by the Japanese has cheered the stock markets. ECB soon?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11200...
Let's all have a game of Beggar Thy Neighbour...

In and amongst all the froth, it is worth noting the Japanese equivalent of our MPC voted 5 against 4. Oh to have been a (bilingual) fly on the wall at that one! smile

So where does this leave the ECB? Money talks; BS walks?