Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Claudia Skies]

longblackcoat said:

bear in mind that Syriza have stated that there'd be no need for their anti-austerity programmes to necessarily lead to a Euro exit. And I'm prety sure the Germans and French will bend over backwards to keep their Greek friends in the fold.

Indeed, this is the reality.

[cayman-black]

fblm said:

RYH64E said:

I'm actually planning on buying more from the Eurozone

Me too

http://www.mobile.de/?lang=en

Looks a good idea to me!

[Andy Zarse]

cayman-black said:

fblm said:

RYH64E said:

I'm actually planning on buying more from the Eurozone

Me too

http://www.mobile.de/?lang=en

Looks a good idea to me!

Screw that, they'll be even cheaper in Italy!

http://www.autosupermarket.it/it/gosearch/#filter

[Walford]

Andy Zarse said:

To return to your point, if or when there's just Germany, France, Holland, and maybe Belgium and Lux left, is that still "The Euro"? Moot point, but on balance I would say not, but it would be a pretty "hard" currency.

Yea New Drachma one to one exchange rate with the northern Euro

[maffski]

Claudia Skies said:

longblackcoat said:

bear in mind that Syriza have stated that there'd be no need for their anti-austerity programmes to necessarily lead to a Euro exit. And I'm prety sure the Germans and French will bend over backwards to keep their Greek friends in the fold.

Indeed, this is the reality.

If there's one thing the Euro zone seems united on, it's why make a drastic change today when you can get away with just announcing that you'll make a drastic change tomorrow.

[Steffan]

maffski said:

Claudia Skies said:

longblackcoat said:

bear in mind that Syriza have stated that there'd be no need for their anti-austerity programmes to necessarily lead to a Euro exit. And I'm prety sure the Germans and French will bend over backwards to keep their Greek friends in the fold.

Indeed, this is the reality.

If there's one thing the Euro zone seems united on, it's why make a drastic change today when you can get away with just announcing that you'll make a drastic change tomorrow.

It would seem there are others taking the same view. It is early days yet for the consequences of massive QE by the ECB to become apparent but I actually got a better rate today changing Sterling into Euros than earlier this week. Now what does that suggest? Confidence not rising yet? Doubts about the real effects of this latest EU gamble?

The BBC certainly picked upon this fact see: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30948473.

I really do think this nonsense must end. How the EU s going to keep confidence up with the Greek vote upon them, the UK very likely to have a referendum in the near future and all the other problems they face I really have no idea. Nor I suspect do the EU. Nor it would appear have the markets. Not looking too good at all.

[anonymous-user]

Digga said:

Way back when he had his Eclipse TVR GT racing team, my mate knew him, I think through Shane Lynch's co-driver whose name escapes me now. He always spoke highly of LT. Taking on that government advisory role was a poisoned chalice and he was pretty brave to have done it.

Andy Bull was shanes co-driver when he started rallying.

[Art0ir]

Sometimes satire is uncomfortably close to the truth.

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2015/01/22/printi...

[LongQ]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2...


The first section of this post has some relevance here I think.


If there is enough unexpected instability in a situation strange things can happen for the least obvious reasons. Think of a large mostly empty ship in the Solent.

Would the Euro survive a 52 degree list and does the ECB have a sandbank nearby for the purpose of beaching? (Perhaps this QE IS the sandbank?]

[turbobloke]

Art0ir said:

Sometimes satire is uncomfortably close to the truth.

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2015/01/22/printi...

Merkel's first five words definitely so.

[Seek]

Greek national television is reporting exitpolls indicate 45,3% of votes to Syriza.
That means an own majority in Greek parliment.

This should get interesting...

Edited by Seek on Sunday 25th January 18:48

[Driller]

Yep, it looks like the Greek st is about to hit the fan!

[Driller]

Yep, it looks like the Greek st is about to hit the fan!

[Mermaid]

Driller said:

Yep, it looks like the Greek st is about to hit the fan!

constipation before the diarrhoea? volatile markets overnight although this will have been priced in, you would expect

[Driller]

[RYH64E]

It will be very interesting to see how this develops. Greece can't afford their debts and default is the obvious solution (for them at least), but what next? If the EU just shrug their shoulders and say 'st happens' then Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus, Italy et al are going to be following suit PDQ, but what's the alternative? Does defaulting on debt allow the EU to stop them using the euro? I don't think there's even a mechanism for kicking them out of the eu, so what will happen?

Whatever happens, Greece is screwed. I can't see them getting any more loans if they default, and even without the debt their economy is on its arse. I don't know what they're going to do, or what the EU can/will do about them.

[NicD]

The EU can loan them more on better terms.

[Mermaid]

NicD said:

The EU can loan them more on better terms.

Goldman Sacks probably have the loan documentation drawn up already.

[0a]

Some fudge will have to be found that allows Merkel to claim there hasn't been a debt default or haircut, and Syriza to claim they have something material. It's hard to see what form this would take at the moment, but let's see what they come up with.

It's madness for the Greeks to stay in the Euro, of course, but for them to leave would mean failure of a key EU project and power base (not acceptable).

[Snoggledog]

Apologies if this is a dumb question but what happens if Greece defaults? Do the creditors call in the bailiffs?