Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Author
Discussion

craig7l

1,135 posts

265 months

Sunday 1st February 2015
quotequote all
What's the odds that Greece will still be using the euro jan 2016..?

LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Sunday 1st February 2015
quotequote all
Steffan said:
The Greek government is thinking on its feet and playing for the best advantage with the EU. The difficulty IMO is that Greece cannot afford to repay these loans.
The possible advantage the Greek government has is that it can do this working through a small group of people responding instantly to events of the day.

The EU cannot. (Or rather cannot without setting up another dictatorial internal sub group that excludes most of the members.)

Torpedo boat vs battle group and who is best working the smoke screen.



BlackLabel

13,251 posts

122 months

Sunday 1st February 2015
quotequote all
craig7l said:
What's the odds that Greece will still be using the euro jan 2016..?
Will Greece Exit The Eurozone In 2015?

No - 1/4
Yes - 5/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-polit...

tumble dryer

1,996 posts

126 months

Sunday 1st February 2015
quotequote all

OT, but on the subject of debt, and what can be done with the political will...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/...

:-)

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Sunday 1st February 2015
quotequote all
Interesting and informative article from Gavin Hewitt of the BBC:

See http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31082656

At least it's not from Robert Peston which will please some. smile

Very thin line for Greece on this I think. I would suggest that whatever the Greeks and the EU actually agree the reality is that the Greek debt is far too large for the Greeks to be able to actually repay this. Given the state of the significant diminution in the Greek economy I think this is wholly impractical dreamland economics. Another cobbled unsuccessful mishmash of absolute refusal to face facts,. Keeps things rolling around a bit longer but I cannot see any real progress in this matter. Default seems to me to be the only practical solution. Unwelcome indeed a dreadful reality. But the Greek government itself has made the very point. The debt is unaffordable. Nothing can change this fact. No easy answers.

Claudia Skies

1,098 posts

115 months

Sunday 1st February 2015
quotequote all
craig7l said:
What's the odds that Greece will still be using the euro jan 2016..?
I'd say it's highly likely.

The "end is nigh" fraternity have been wrong for the last three years and they'll probably be wrong in 2015 as well. Why? Because their only plan is for Greece to jump out of the frying pan into the fire - and my money says even the Greeks aren't daft enough to do that.

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

246 months

Sunday 1st February 2015
quotequote all
Claudia Skies said:
craig7l said:
What's the odds that Greece will still be using the euro jan 2016..?
I'd say it's highly likely.

The "end is nigh" fraternity have been wrong for the last three years and they'll probably be wrong in 2015 as well. Why? Because their only plan is for Greece to jump out of the frying pan into the fire - and my money says even the Greeks aren't daft enough to do that.
We used to have a chap posting on here called Ozzie Osmond, he was an utter blithering idiot. He was convinced the Euro was a path of righteousness and would lead its users to economic stability, prosperity for all and the creation of a powerful superstate to rival the USA. The yodelling uselessness of the chump meant he couldn't understand that we had to be right only once. And as the years go by, the EZ lurches from one crisis to the next, it's fair to ask what is the bloody point of it? Is Europe more united after fifteen years of Euro, or less? Are folk happier, wealthier? I think we can all see the answer with the million Spaniards who were on the streets yesterday.

tumble dryer

1,996 posts

126 months

Sunday 1st February 2015
quotequote all
Steffan said:
Interesting and informative article from Gavin Hewitt of the BBC:

See http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31082656

At least it's not from Robert Peston which will please some. smile

Very thin line for Greece on this I think. I would suggest that whatever the Greeks and the EU actually agree the reality is that the Greek debt is far too large for the Greeks to be able to actually repay this. Given the state of the significant diminution in the Greek economy I think this is wholly impractical dreamland economics. Another cobbled unsuccessful mishmash of absolute refusal to face facts,. Keeps things rolling around a bit longer but I cannot see any real progress in this matter. Default seems to me to be the only practical solution. Unwelcome indeed a dreadful reality. But the Greek government itself has made the very point. The debt is unaffordable. Nothing can change this fact. No easy answers.
Steffan, Greece's debt can't ever be repaid. Those who lent the money knew this at the point of extending credit.

It's no longer (and probably wasn't ever) about Greece's debt, it's about control. And power. And politics. And the salaries enjoyed (and the machine created to ensure control) at the Euro taxpayer's expense.

It's a clusterfuk of the highest order.

But you know what? It's starting to unravel, and, as these things have a way of doing, it'll be the smallest trigger that causes the biggest bang.

I think I just heard a 'click' somewhere softly in the distance.



And if not this time...

Actually, despite the collective intellectual genius (and I'm not being facetious here) of Draghi et al, I think it IS this time. Too many people trying to force their will on too many people; history shows it doesn't work in the long term.

Pull up a chair....





craig7l

1,135 posts

265 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Andy Zarse said:
Claudia Skies said:
craig7l said:
What's the odds that Greece will still be using the euro jan 2016..?
I'd say it's highly likely.

The "end is nigh" fraternity have been wrong for the last three years and they'll probably be wrong in 2015 as well. Why? Because their only plan is for Greece to jump out of the frying pan into the fire - and my money says even the Greeks aren't daft enough to do that.
We used to have a chap posting on here called Ozzie Osmond, he was an utter blithering idiot. He was convinced the Euro was a path of righteousness and would lead its users to economic stability, prosperity for all and the creation of a powerful superstate to rival the USA. The yodelling uselessness of the chump meant he couldn't understand that we had to be right only once. And as the years go by, the EZ lurches from one crisis to the next, it's fair to ask what is the bloody point of it? Is Europe more united after fifteen years of Euro, or less? Are folk happier, wealthier? I think we can all see the answer with the million Spaniards who were on the streets yesterday.
Totally agree andy.... However we shouldnt and cannot underestimate just how fanatical the Eurocrats are in protecting the whole edifice of interwoven financial structures that stifle and bound the failing States.
And it's with my regret that even under the very extreme circumstance of the people of Greece voting for a mandate that doesn't suggest a clear severance that both sides of the argument will merge to a situation that pacifes short termism.

Edited by craig7l on Monday 2nd February 00:29

Gargamel

14,957 posts

260 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
If it isn't Syriza this time, it will be Podemos next time or Le Pen or UKIP.

The politics of the EU are unraveling, simply because the economics haven't delivered.

Spain and Italy are still running above 30% youth unemployment.

The only objective the Euro Currency can really have been said to have achieved is to cement the Germans as the pre eminent economic power in Europe.



Mermaid

21,492 posts

170 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
.
The only objective the Euro Currency can really have been said to have achieved is to cement the Germans as the pre eminent economic power in Europe.
So the plan has worked, so far.

LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
If it isn't Syriza this time, it will be Podemos next time or Le Pen or UKIP.
I'm struggling to imagine Ukip getting a million people (or whatever the real number was) onto the streets unless Farage was funding a massive pub crawl.

911Gary

4,162 posts

200 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
tumble dryer said:
Steffan, Greece's debt can't ever be repaid. Those who lent the money knew this at the point of extending credit.

It's no longer (and probably wasn't ever) about Greece's debt, it's about control. And power. And politics. And the salaries enjoyed (and the machine created to ensure control) at the Euro taxpayer's expense.

It's a clusterfuk of the highest order.

But you know what? It's starting to unravel, and, as these things have a way of doing, it'll be the smallest trigger that causes the biggest bang.

I think I just heard a 'click' somewhere softly in the distance.



And if not this time...

Actually, despite the collective intellectual genius (and I'm not being facetious here) of Draghi et al, I think it IS this time. Too many people trying to force their will on too many people; history shows it doesn't work in the long term.

Pull up a chair....
As usual I agree with Steffan,that said we are on our 3rd potential bailout with more needed,there is talk online of the need for more cash by the end of next month,the trouble is here IMHO its never been about "Greece" but carrying on, whilst the EU coffers are still awash with net contributors funds they will keep paying,I think ultimately the states with economic output and profit will tire of the whole thing,morally surely it cant go on and on for ever though looking at the length of these 2 threads I'm starting to wonder I still think some unraveling will occur.





Edited by 911Gary on Monday 2nd February 10:36

paulrockliffe

15,639 posts

226 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
LongQ said:
Gargamel said:
If it isn't Syriza this time, it will be Podemos next time or Le Pen or UKIP.
I'm struggling to imagine Ukip getting a million people (or whatever the real number was) onto the streets unless Farage was funding a massive pub crawl.
That may be true, but things wouldn't be that much different to what we see across Europe if we were bound by the Euro I wouldn't think.

RYH64E

7,960 posts

243 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
If it isn't Syriza this time, it will be Podemos next time or Le Pen or UKIP.

The politics of the EU are unraveling, simply because the economics haven't delivered.

Spain and Italy are still running above 30% youth unemployment.

The only objective the Euro Currency can really have been said to have achieved is to cement the Germans as the pre eminent economic power in Europe.
Were I an entrepeneurial young Spaniard/Italian/Greek I would be either:

a) Using the freedom of movement of workers to relocate somewhere more prosperous within the EU, or

b) Taking advantage of a stable, internationally accepted currency and membership of an enormous, protectionist market to make and sell stuff around Europe.

What I wouldn't be doing is sitting at home waiting for my savings to be converted into some Mickey Mouse currency that no-one wants and moaning that it's all the fault of the Germans.

Membership of the EU brings huge opportunities for those prepared to take advantage of them, as usual it's a case that those who can, do, whilst those who can't, just moan (and vote UKIP/Syriza/Podemos).

turbobloke

103,739 posts

259 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Gargamel said:
If it isn't Syriza this time, it will be Podemos next time or Le Pen or UKIP.

The politics of the EU are unraveling, simply because the economics haven't delivered.

Spain and Italy are still running above 30% youth unemployment.

The only objective the Euro Currency can really have been said to have achieved is to cement the Germans as the pre eminent economic power in Europe.
Were I an entrepeneurial young Spaniard/Italian/Greek I would be either:

a) Using the freedom of movement of workers to relocate somewhere more prosperous within the EU, or

b) Taking advantage of a stable, internationally accepted currency and membership of an enormous, protectionist market to make and sell stuff around Europe.

What I wouldn't be doing is sitting at home waiting for my savings to be converted into some Mickey Mouse currency that no-one wants and moaning that it's all the fault of the Germans.

Membership of the EU brings huge opportunities for those prepared to take advantage of them, as usual it's a case that those who can, do, whilst those who can't, just moan (and vote UKIP/Syriza/Podemos).
There's nothing wrong with making the best of a bad lot, but there's every reason to want to make the bad lot much better. The route involved may well be different for different countries and involve UKIP/Syriza/Podemos which will necessarily be beyond moaning. At some point, those who put all their eggs in the EZ or EU baskets may be moaning or worse. Not that ill should be wished on anyone outside political lizardry. No offence to herpetologists.

PRTVR

7,072 posts

220 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Gargamel said:
If it isn't Syriza this time, it will be Podemos next time or Le Pen or UKIP.

The politics of the EU are unraveling, simply because the economics haven't delivered.

Spain and Italy are still running above 30% youth unemployment.

The only objective the Euro Currency can really have been said to have achieved is to cement the Germans as the pre eminent economic power in Europe.
Were I an entrepeneurial young Spaniard/Italian/Greek I would be either:

a) Using the freedom of movement of workers to relocate somewhere more prosperous within the EU, or

b) Taking advantage of a stable, internationally accepted currency and membership of an enormous, protectionist market to make and sell stuff around Europe.

What I wouldn't be doing is sitting at home waiting for my savings to be converted into some Mickey Mouse currency that no-one wants and moaning that it's all the fault of the Germans.

Membership of the EU brings huge opportunities for those prepared to take advantage of them, as usual it's a case that those who can, do, whilst those who can't, just moan (and vote UKIP/Syriza/Podemos).
And the unemployment in Spain, Greece has gone up year on year, the dream is dead, how would you feel if your successful company had to pay a percentage of its profits to a unsuccessful company next door, this is the reality of the EU, its never going to work.

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

246 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Gargamel said:
If it isn't Syriza this time, it will be Podemos next time or Le Pen or UKIP.

The politics of the EU are unraveling, simply because the economics haven't delivered.

Spain and Italy are still running above 30% youth unemployment.

The only objective the Euro Currency can really have been said to have achieved is to cement the Germans as the pre eminent economic power in Europe.
Were I an entrepeneurial young Spaniard/Italian/Greek I would be either:

a) Using the freedom of movement of workers to relocate somewhere more prosperous within the EU, or

b) Taking advantage of a stable, internationally accepted currency and membership of an enormous, protectionist market to make and sell stuff around Europe.

What I wouldn't be doing is sitting at home waiting for my savings to be converted into some Mickey Mouse currency that no-one wants and moaning that it's all the fault of the Germans.

Membership of the EU brings huge opportunities for those prepared to take advantage of them, as usual it's a case that those who can, do, whilst those who can't, just moan (and vote UKIP/Syriza/Podemos).
a) some people can't move for various reasons. You'd struggle if you moved to Czech or Hungary or Portugal, simply because of the language barrier. In any event the Euro and EU were supposed to ensure prosperity across a continent not concentrate it in Germany or the UK.
b) stable? rofl Euro has gone up and down like a yoyo! It's mainly down just now cancelling out a fair bit of the oil price falls. As to a protectionist market, EZ GDP is falling and in almost permanent borderline recession, there's widespread deflation and much of it the bad kind, and essentially we are shackled to a corps.

Syriza? I expect you'd moan a bit if you found a lump on one of your cobblers and was told by the doctor the state no longer offered any cancer treatment. That kind of thing does tend to bring folk out onto the streets.


Edited by Andy Zarse on Monday 2nd February 10:13

CrutyRammers

13,735 posts

197 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Membership of the EU brings huge opportunities for those prepared to take advantage of them, as usual it's a case that those who can, do, whilst those who can't, just moan (and vote UKIP/Syriza/Podemos).
So there's no room in your world for holding a position, and voting, based on a principle or belief?
Of course not, because it stops you describing those who disagree with you as lazy moaners.

LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Gargamel said:
If it isn't Syriza this time, it will be Podemos next time or Le Pen or UKIP.

The politics of the EU are unraveling, simply because the economics haven't delivered.

Spain and Italy are still running above 30% youth unemployment.

The only objective the Euro Currency can really have been said to have achieved is to cement the Germans as the pre eminent economic power in Europe.
Were I an entrepeneurial young Spaniard/Italian/Greek I would be either:

a) Using the freedom of movement of workers to relocate somewhere more prosperous within the EU, or

b) Taking advantage of a stable, internationally accepted currency and membership of an enormous, protectionist market to make and sell stuff around Europe.

What I wouldn't be doing is sitting at home waiting for my savings to be converted into some Mickey Mouse currency that no-one wants and moaning that it's all the fault of the Germans.

Membership of the EU brings huge opportunities for those prepared to take advantage of them, as usual it's a case that those who can, do, whilst those who can't, just moan (and vote UKIP/Syriza/Podemos).
Well, I expect that the entrepreneurial young try exactly that approach and a small percentage of them succeed just like everywhere else.

The other 99.9% of the population pyramid will, at various levels, fail to make that cut. What are they supposed to do that, in a single leap, makes them free operatives?


Could the pyramid be inverted and still survive? I thought that was what the Greeks (and others) had been trying for a while already ...