Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[anonymous-user]

Mr Whippy said:

But I assume Mr Whippy won't be as competitive as 'big bank A' who can take a smaller skim of a much larger slice when they buy government bonds and then re-sell to the central bank?

Dave

OK I think we digress a little too much but it's true market makers, including the banks, make a tiny(ish) cut of all the deals going through them. In that sense the banks make money from being intermediaries of QE to the wider world, however that is very much a second order effect very far removed from being given the notional amount! To put the intermediaries 'skim' in context as a very small time trader I can buy and sell US 10 years at exactly the same rates available to the big guys on the electronic exchanges for $5 per million(!). Or make my own market and enter my own bids and offers. Actually that brings us back nicely to our previous discussion about HFT's. HFT's drove this move from monopolistic human trading where the little guy ALWAYS got fvcked to the brutal competition between multiple exchanges and almost free bid/offer spreads and broker fees we see today.

Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 31st March 14:48

[Andy Zarse]

fblm said:

IMO European QE will fail. QE buys governments time by keeping a lid on their borrowing costs which otherwise would likely soar, in this respect the ECB will succeed. Unfortunately the EU and european governments will not use that time to generate economic growth or restructure their entitlements but will procrastinate, can kick and point fingers. It's so sad because its all so predictable.

A bit like the UK has wasted an opportunity, the economy has not been "rebalanced" over the last five years, and I despaired today on hearing unsecured credit is growing at 6.6%pa. What can possibly go wrong....

My main issue with QE is that it was originally a short term tactic designed to stop us going tits up, which morphed into a long term strategy without any real discussion as to the ultimate unwinding effects.

Oh and for what it's worth, I agree EZ QE will fail for a number of reasons, but mainly because the world has moved on. The QE game is over as the Japanese are currently discovering.

[Welshbeef]

Andy Zarse said:

A bit like the UK has wasted an opportunity, the economy has not been "rebalanced" over the last five years, and I despaired today on hearing unsecured credit is growing at 6.6%pa. What can possibly go wrong....

My main issue with QE is that it was originally a short term tactic designed to stop us going tits up which morphed into a long term strategy without any real discussion as to the ultimate unwinding effects.

Oh and for what it's worth, I agree EZ QE will fail for a number of reasons, mainly because the world has moved on. The QE game is over as the Japanese are currently discovering.

When you say unwinding QE are you saying the Govt buys back the debt or simply stops and let's time eat away at its value?

[Andy Zarse]

Welshbeef said:

When you say unwinding QE are you saying the Govt buys back the debt or simply stops and let's time eat away at its value?

Very good question old chap! I honestly have no proper idea, but then again nor do the Central Banks...

You might find this interesting...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2014/10...

[jogon]

All is not well in Germany it seems, according to the Telegraph..

Peter Gauweiler, deputy chairman of the Christian Social Union - the Bavarian sister party of the ruling CDU - said Greece was a "bankrupt state" and he could not serve as a member of parliament as long as his "dissenting vote against an extension of the current and completely ineffective program" was ignored.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11506...

[WinstonWolf]

Simple question,

I've got to pay for a hotel in Euros in October, it will be the equivalent of £640. Buy Euros now or wait until October?

[Mark Benson]

It's just over a week until Greece has to cough up to the IMF - might be prudent to hold off buying Euros until we see what pans out.

It's not clear if they have the cash to pay, if not what's that going to do to the Euro?

[wc98]

WinstonWolf said:

Simple question,

I've got to pay for a hotel in Euros in October, it will be the equivalent of £640. Buy Euros now or wait until October?

i would wait until the day before you leave . all the sticking plasters being hurriedly applied at the moment in the lead up to various elections will have fallen off by then and the true picture will be emerging ,i imagine it will look like something painted by edward munch.

[Steffan]

WinstonWolf said:

Simple question,

I've got to pay for a hotel in Euros in October, it will be the equivalent of £640. Buy Euros now or wait until October?

Interesting question. Over in Italy, where we live during the winter, back to UK in April for the English summer, if there actually one ths year, we have been very much aware of the Euro dropping losing about 25% of its value initially. Now starting to claw back somewhat. We are getting noticeably less on exchange currently but still much more than we did in September last year when we came over here.

Predicting exchange rates is a very tricky busiess. Mermaid on here is a real hawk eyed follower of the markets and currency and I do think he might offer an observation. I assume that the recovery results from the effect of the elastic QE that the ECB and Mario Droghi are happily printing. There has been no underlying recovery in any of the EU failing states or indeed the solvent EU states whatsoever.

Very difficult to predict. I would expect the rally to continue short term. The way that this Greek nonsense is going it seems very probable that even if there were some form of ridiculous cobbled agreement enabling Greece to lose yet more Billions that they cannot possibly afford I think this is bound to fall apart before much longer.

There are more and more dissenting voices from all around the EU both inside and outside the EU expressing deep concern at the risks that this continued bail out represents to the EU itself and the very structure of that organisation. I cannot see how any rational and serious economists would not agree that financially, the Goose of Greece is well and truly cooked. In consequence it sees to me that, despite the best (or worse!) efforts of the EU, this must fail.

I will be interested to see what the other followers of the thread suggest. Several clearly have experience of the currency markets and they may well offer different suggestions. Best of luck to you we have saved a very significant sum over thel last six months with the exchange rate as it has been.

[LongQ]

WinstonWolf said:

Simple question,

I've got to pay for a hotel in Euros in October, it will be the equivalent of £640. Buy Euros now or wait until October?

You're buying a Hotel for 640 Euros?

Gosh.

Where is this place? Would one want to holiday there?

[DJRC]

Today's definition of stupid - deciding work is more important than a broken foot. In the meantime we got dicks banging on about zero hour contracts, part time worker, contractors etc all not being real jobs that don't count. Sometimes , just sometimes I think wtf do we bother? Give up, go sit at home claim benefits and let some other bd pick up the tab.

Do we really have nobody better than these nobbers to lead us?

[Andy Zarse]

DJRC said:

Today's definition of stupid - deciding work is more important than a broken foot. In the meantime we got dicks banging on about zero hour contracts, part time worker, contractors etc all not being real jobs that don't count. Sometimes , just sometimes I think wtf do we bother? Give up, go sit at home claim benefits and let some other bd pick up the tab.

Do we really have nobody better than these nobbers to lead us?

I'll tell you what pisses me off. There's about 700,000 people on zero hour contracts, out of a total workforce of what, 30-odd million. So about 2% of the entire workforce. Of those 700,000, around a third are perfectly happy with their flexible contract as it cuts both ways and suits their lifestyle. Imagine the scene in a Cannock pub;

"D'yow wanna werk the bar tonoight Ethel?"
"No ta, Tuesday's binger noight"
"Ah'll pay yow toime unun'alf"
"Ow goo on then, but can yow swap us next Munday so as wey con goo to the coravan at Rhyll".

If Labour get their way all that flexibility would be gone.

So next, you subtract students too, and who exactly are you left with? People so dumb they can't lace their own shoes, the terminally idle who have been made to sign at gun point by the Job Centre, the "professional disabled" and a few other assorted folk who have fallen on hard times.

The whole point is, Milligland had turned it into a massive issue of national importance and Dave and the Tories are too fking stupid to know how to call bks on him.

[Gargamel]

Andy Zarse said:

Dave and the Tories are too fking stupid to know how to call bks on him.

I don't understand this either, are they so concerned with image that they won't fight back.

Can you imagine Thatcher in a debate with Miliband about zero hours, it would be an annihilation.

The Tories seem unable to make a cogent argument, or go on the front foot.

[Mr Whippy]

They're all just the same stty shade of brown now.

They all want to appeal to everyone while offering no one what their party supposedly offers.

Conservatives don't conserve.

Labour don't represent working people.

And Liberals are not liberal any more.


How do you expect any of them to make any cogent arguments when by definition their positions are contradictory to begin with?


Oh for a party which actually had a back bone and some conviction to be unpopular to even the slightest sliver of society.

Dave

[DJRC]

Its just "only the right type of work" attitude that counts. I simply don't understand it.

Work is work. Money is money. End of discussion. This moral philosophical dimension bks is so far beyond my upbringing its a different world to me. We may be butt of all jokes up in Blackpool, but by God the first thing you learn growing up is money, how you earn it, how people spend it and how to make sure you can be part of that transaction!

[arguti]

DJRC said:

Its just "only the right type of work" attitude that counts. I simply don't understand it.

Work is work. Money is money. End of discussion. This moral philosophical dimension bks is so far beyond my upbringing its a different world to me. We may be butt of all jokes up in Blackpool, but by God the first thing you learn growing up is money, how you earn it, how people spend it and how to make sure you can be part of that transaction!

This is so true...stop pontificating, get off your arse and realise that luck is where preparation meets opportunity, get in there up to your elbows and spot the opportunities.....too much high level navel gazing and paralysis by analysis is where we go wrong

<RANT OVER>

[WinstonWolf]

Steffan said:

WinstonWolf said:

Simple question,

I've got to pay for a hotel in Euros in October, it will be the equivalent of £640. Buy Euros now or wait until October?

Interesting question. Over in Italy, where we live during the winter, back to UK in April for the English summer, if there actually one ths year, we have been very much aware of the Euro dropping losing about 25% of its value initially. Now starting to claw back somewhat. We are getting noticeably less on exchange currently but still much more than we did in September last year when we came over here.

Predicting exchange rates is a very tricky busiess. Mermaid on here is a real hawk eyed follower of the markets and currency and I do think he might offer an observation. I assume that the recovery results from the effect of the elastic QE that the ECB and Mario Droghi are happily printing. There has been no underlying recovery in any of the EU failing states or indeed the solvent EU states whatsoever.

Very difficult to predict. I would expect the rally to continue short term. The way that this Greek nonsense is going it seems very probable that even if there were some form of ridiculous cobbled agreement enabling Greece to lose yet more Billions that they cannot possibly afford I think this is bound to fall apart before much longer.

There are more and more dissenting voices from all around the EU both inside and outside the EU expressing deep concern at the risks that this continued bail out represents to the EU itself and the very structure of that organisation. I cannot see how any rational and serious economists would not agree that financially, the Goose of Greece is well and truly cooked. In consequence it sees to me that, despite the best (or worse!) efforts of the EU, this must fail.

I will be interested to see what the other followers of the thread suggest. Several clearly have experience of the currency markets and they may well offer different suggestions. Best of luck to you we have saved a very significant sum over thel last six months with the exchange rate as it has been.

Thanks for all the replies folks, I guess I'll hold off for a bit.

[Digga]

Andy Zarse said:

Imagine the scene in a Cannock pub;

"D'yow wanna werk the bar tonoight Ethel?"
"No ta, Tuesday's binger noight"
"Ah'll pay yow toime unun'alf"
"Ow goo on then, but can yow swap us next Munday so as wey con goo to the coravan at Rhyll".

A lot of the mates I ride mountain bikes with are from Cannock/Bloxwich/Great Wyrley (familiar names to those who saw the recent Arthur & George series on TV) and the affirmative replies to group texts or emails about who's out are usually simply "R".

[DJRC]

Some of us married Cannock girls...

[Mr Whippy]

DJRC said:

Its just "only the right type of work" attitude that counts. I simply don't understand it.

Work is work. Money is money. End of discussion. This moral philosophical dimension bks is so far beyond my upbringing its a different world to me. We may be butt of all jokes up in Blackpool, but by God the first thing you learn growing up is money, how you earn it, how people spend it and how to make sure you can be part of that transaction!

Yep indeed.

I've been out of the PAYE loop for three years now and still make ends meet doing all sorts of stuff, on/off contract, doing my own direct to customers, short contracting for others, whatever whatever.

And it quite suits me I think.

Zero hours contracts 'sound' bad but as you noted earlier, they probably fit some people perfectly. For others maybe they don't but hey we all have a choice, and if you want permanent work then keep looking out for that while you're working zero hours.


I agree, the world is far too full of people who just let society cushion them from their own slackness. If they'd just look at things from the other side and realise how lucky they are to have that cushion, but not feel they should sit on it perpetually.

Dave