Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Mermaid]

Steffan said:

I do appreciate R Peston is not everybodies brew on PH, but I do think is worth a read and very relevant to this thread.

Much more direct than Peston usually is, which tells its own story:

http://m.bbc.com/news/business-32335756

Peston is good.
He says:
"As for us, the Greek drama represents unwelcome instability as we choose our next leaders"

I say:

"As for them, the Greek drachma represents welcome stability as they have chosen their leaders vision"

Set them free to make their own bed.

[anonymous-user]

Mermaid said:

I say:

"As for them, the Greek drachma represents welcome stability...

[Steffan]

Mermaid said:

Steffan said:

I do appreciate R Peston is not everybodies brew on PH, but I do think is worth a read and very relevant to this thread.

Much more direct than Peston usually is, which tells its own story:

http://m.bbc.com/news/business-32335756

Peston is good.
He says:
"As for us, the Greek drama represents unwelcome instability as we choose our next leaders"

I say:

"As for them, the Greek drachma represents welcome stability as they have chosen their leaders vision"

Set them free to make their own bed.

I do agree with you once again Mermaid. Regrettably there must be a consequence to the refusal of Greece to face economic reality and to try and continue wheedling funds out of the EU, to enable totally unaffordable lifestyles and nonsenses like early retirement for all. Totally unaffordable and Greece has gone on with this nonsense for year after year after year.

Perhaps one of the consequences of this serious problem for Greece will be reality dawning upon other nations hell bent to over borrow and overspend that this cannot last for ever. Perhaps equally the EU will realise that outright cookery has no place in politics and their power, substantial though it is, cannot enable insolvent states to become solvent permanently.

There may well be repercussions to the EU on the whole regard the markets have for the Euro as a solid dependable currency. There may very well be serious repercussions for the cavalier attitude that the EU has for financial probity as well. No bad thing!

One way or another Greece is on the slippery slope and not coming back. Tragedy for the country and the poor inhabitants therein. But there must be a consequence to financial recklessness and I am hopeful at least that consequence will be widely recognised.

Then there is the question of what consequences will there be to other Sovereign states verging upon the edge of insolvency? Here I think the dire consequences to Greece will actually assist the EU in bringing back the majority of the other insolvent failing states within the EU from insolvency, because the dire direct consequences of not regaining solvency will become all too clear all too qucikly. There may well be further casualties as this thread suggested some days ago where the states really are too far gone already? Once again, time will tell.

[Mermaid]

fblm said:

Mermaid said:

I say:

"As for them, the Greek drachma represents welcome stability...

I know I know, but long term they need to be able to write their own destiny - based on their lifestyle/culture/preference.

Greeks & Germans - not a lot in common really is there apart from their love of big German cars. A little harsh but how did we get here.

[Mr Whippy]

Steffan said:

I must agree foisting our overborrowing and overspending onto our children cannot be right. Regrettably that has become the approach most popular with politicians in many countries including sadly, the UK. France is yet another prime example of this approach and as DJRC reminded us years ago, France is toast and that really is visibly becoming absolutely inevitable.

Personally were I some 40 years younger with small children I would be looking at emigrating to Canada, New Zealand, the USA, or Australia. No guarantees of success but these countries require much more self reliance from their electorate, which makes social security more affordable, and have massive untapped natural resources still waiting to be used sensibly. There are difficulties in that choice, but the overcrowding and overpopulation of the UK will only worsen with time. Not somewhere I would want to be personally given the youthful energy needed to make such changes. However I am 40 years too old so here I will stay.

The UK has been a great place for me to live within, I have really had a very full life here. But I can see serious structural financial problems being compounded like the steadily growing burden of the retired, the unfunded and unfundable state pensions, and the pernicious growth of debt, both governmental and personal, all burgeoning steadily and there will
inevitably be unpleasant consequences in the UK. For those reasons I woud be voting with my feet. These problems are not going to be admitted or recognised by UK politicians.

Cameron seems to have made a fundamental error of judgement in refusing to appear in these debates. I suspect it's because he knows he is crap at keeping his temper when losing in a debate and therefore refuses to appear. Could cost his party dear but with the mighty Boris coming into parliament again I hold little hope for Cameron politically anyway. Cameron is a lightweight at best. Boris is most certainly not.


Apologies for the addendum here because it is a link to an R Peston BBC link.

I do appreciate R Peston is not everybodies brew on PH, but I do think is worth a read and very relevant to this thread.

Much more direct than Peston usually is, which tells its own story:

http://m.bbc.com/news/business-32335756

Edited by Steffan on Friday 17th April 19:21

The thing is, that is how it's always worked. Debt today will be cheaper to re-finance tomorrow. OK to an extent... assuming perpetual growth of economies.

We think Greece is in a bad spot now, but we'll all be in that bad spot soon if the global economy doesn't pick up and boom again... and the signs are increasingly that it's going to deflate and do it rather hard...

Future generations won't be paying for this debt, WE will in the very near future as everything is reset because it'll be the only realistic way we can move forward.


All I'll say is own what you own outright. Or with unsecured finance... a poo storm approaches.


Dave

[turbobloke]

Mr Whippy said:

All I'll say is own what you own outright. Or with unsecured finance... a poo storm approaches.
Dave

Does that include interest rate poo and if so when do you think it will start touching cloth?

[Art0ir]

Finns set to stir the pot if this is anything to go by.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11541...

[number 46]

Draghi says don't short the Euro, if there was ever a trading signal the this must be it !!!??

[turbobloke]

number 46 said:

Draghi says don't short the Euro, if there was ever a trading signal the this must be it !!!??

Sounds like he needs a chat with Normam Lamont.

[NicD]

Yes, I read this and did wonder on the timing:

'At a news conference on Saturday during meetings of the International Monetary Fund, Draghi said he stood by a comment he made in August 2012 that the euro “cannot be reversed.”'

[Mermaid]

Game on, or is it a case of "don't fight the ECB"

[turbobloke]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: With Greece poised to secure as much as €5bn through Gazprom deal, ECB chief inisists currency union can withstand shock of withdrawal.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11547...

[Welshbeef]

I wonder what would happen IF (Russia could afford it) that they buy up ALL Greeces debt and in return Greece joins the new Soviet Union.

Interesting thought.

[Steffan]

Welshbeef said:

I wonder what would happen IF (Russia could afford it) that they buy up ALL Greeces debt and in return Greece joins the new Soviet Union.

Interesting thought.

Indeed it is and one that will fill the EU leaders with horror.

Personally I doubt if the bankrupt Russia can afford this but the advantages of any port in a storm to Greece may bring about a singularly unholy alliance. It does seem pretty apparent that the actual policies of Syriza are never going to address or effect any of the economic changes required to very gradually return the Greek economy to solvency. Greece has used this largesse offered by the EU to enjoy national unaffordable lifestyles.

There never was any real possibility that this could work given the absolute refusal of Greece to reduce its deficit. The EU have thrown away billions and Greece has been insolvent throughout this nonsense and steadily become more and more insolvent. Matter of time: I think?

Weeks probably, but otherwise only months it would seem to me! Any suggestions as to how long others on here this process will now take to the point where the insolvency is formally recognised? What then I do wonder?

[Walford]

Welshbeef said:

I wonder what would happen IF (Russia could afford it) that they buy up ALL Greeces debt and in return Greece joins the new Soviet Union.

Interesting thought.

Greece is in the EU, but does what it likes, are you suggesting they would join the SU, then ignore there advice

[Wilmslowboy]

Welshbeef said:

I wonder what would happen IF (Russia could afford it) that they buy up ALL Greeces debt and in return Greece joins the new Soviet Union.

Interesting thought.

They wouldn't need to buy up all their existing debt, just agree to support them going forward...much cheaper, and only required for a couple years.

Greece defaults on their IMF and EU debt...and gets the money it needs to continue going forward from Russia....


Wouldn't be a good outcome for Greece or the EU (IMHO) better that EU cuts some slack on the old debt...bit like Europe did with Germany in 1953

[Mr Whippy]

turbobloke said:

Does that include interest rate poo and if so when do you think it will start touching cloth?

I'm not sure, I'm not exposed to costs of credit servicing to a level it would worry me.

In the end if the sovereign debt issue pops I can't do much about that. Bail ins, outs, relieving my accounts of funds, forfeiture of assets, descent into socialism or corporate government slavery. Probably best not to worry about that.

Infact if you don't want to worry about it and effect a real change, the best approach is to not take part in it.

Taking part is your consent to have governments and banks putting your children into debt slavery without their consent.


Greece have shown the power of a collective finger to corrupt governments and greedy banks.

Seeing how this plays out shows how corrupt and greedy banks are.

First stop Greece, next stop everywhere else, eventually.


Dave

[LongQ]

Mr Whippy said:

Taking part is your consent to have governments and banks putting your children into debt slavery without their consent.

How would that be any different to the past? Some sort of slavery has, in one form or another, always been the lot of "the children".

For the majority of the world's population it still is but the nature of slavery is perhaps moving rapidly from physical and labour intensive to fiscal and "wealth" intensive.

I was thinking today that it would be interesting to compare the growth of wealth to the growth of leisure industries and their share of claimed GDPs.

[Mr Whippy]

LongQ said:

How would that be any different to the past? Some sort of slavery has, in one form or another, always been the lot of "the children".

For the majority of the world's population it still is but the nature of slavery is perhaps moving rapidly from physical and labour intensive to fiscal and "wealth" intensive.

I was thinking today that it would be interesting to compare the growth of wealth to the growth of leisure industries and their share of claimed GDPs.

It's not different to the past, but it's not progressive is it?

We call ourselves developed nations but our potential quality of comfort of life for the next generations is going to be moving backwards. We really are un-developing nations.

And not too many generations earlier than the last one (baby boomers), we had children climbing up chimneys to clean them, or getting crushed under heavy machinery in textile factories.


It's dangerous to just spend the next generations money today for our own benefit. More so when the sums are so huge, we're not just borrowing to speculate on growth, we're borrowing to try to cause actual growth which seems to have disappeared off the table... we're borrowing to pay for debts already created, and we're borrowing to pay for people to sit on their arses in larger numbers than ever.

If the future doesn't pick up again as the dumbass economists, bankers and greedy politicians do, in the never ending pyramid scheme on a finite planet, then the next generation WILL be living in significant stress due to the greed of a few today.



Fiscal and wealth intensive? But where does wealth come from?

People make wealth by swapping labour for it. The only reason we have so much today is we've borrowed years worth of it from the future by printing money and 'making money up' under the idea that we can pay it back in the future for less because of inflation.

A reset to free markets is what is needed. But the powers that be need to protect the uber wealthy while the plebs lose everything. Just look at Greece as a perfect example of this 'hint' of the future unfolding...

Greece isn't special, we're all in that boat in a few more years of economic doldrums!

We're all gonna be labour slaves, to become intensive wealth slaves, to service debts we didn't take well into the future.

Dave

[EskimoArapaho]

Greek government tries to close the stable door after the horse has bolted: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102601803