Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Pan Pan Pan]

Pan Pan Pan said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I fear you are correct. the problem for the Greek people, is that like the multi generational `can work, but don't want to work' benefits claimants we have here, they have been divorced from operating
anything like a modern sound national economy for so long, if they ever did (at least 25 years from what I have seen, but it could back much further), they don't even realize how disastrous what they have been doing, and are doing now is for their country.
They might have kidded themselves into thinking that what `they' have been doing is normal, without even bothering to compare their economy, and practises with other more successful economies (which worked as long as the EU money for nothing benefits kept rolling in)
They are now in a similar position to jobless benefits claimants who have learned their benefits are to be cut off,
No Job, No skills, no inclination to work, No inclination to change their ways, and now no more free cash fluttering down from above.
Whether they stay in the EU / EZ or not, it makes no difference, they have a harsh awakening awaiting them, and the only ones who can get themselves out of their dire position are the Greeks themselves.
They possibly have now had all the free cash they are going to get, to bring their country into the 21st century, and turn it into a modern, viable, productive, contributing member state of the EU, but so far they have chosen not to do so.
Interesting times lay ahead.

[towser]

Interesting and to be honest, at times sad, article on the Greek crisis.

https://www.byline.com/column/11/article/135

"Greece feels betrayed. The people "in the know" assured us that if we did as they instructed, the situation will improve. It didn't. It got worse. And then worse again. We agreed to buy back our own debt at a premium and, by doing so, gave time to large financial interests to disentangle themselves from Greece, to put buffers against contagion. Now they don't care. Greece was played. We were convinced to get in a lifeboat full of holes and now Europe wants to set us adrift."

[Steffan]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I fear you are correct. the problem for the Greek people, is that like the multi generational `can work, but don't want to work' benefits claimants we have here, they have been divorced from operating
anything like a modern sound national economy for so long, if they ever did (at least 25 years from what I have seen, but it could back much further), they don't even realize how disastrous what they have been doing, and are doing now is for their country.
They might have kidded themselves into thinking that what `they' have been doing is normal, without even bothering to compare their economy, and practises with other more successful economies (which worked as long as the EU money for nothing benefits kept rolling in)
They are now in a similar position to jobless benefits claimants who have learned their benefits are to be cut off,
No Job, No skills, no inclination to work, No inclination to change their ways, and now no more free cash fluttering down from above.
Whether they stay in the EU / EZ or not, it makes no difference, they have a harsh awakening awaiting them, and the only ones who can get themselves out of their dire position are the Greeks themselves.
They possibly have now had all the free cash they are going to get, to bring their country into the 21st century, and turn it into a modern, viable, productive, contributing member state of the EU, but so far they have chosen not to do so.
Interesting times lay ahead.

The two posts above introduce an interesting concept on this matter. I do think the essence of the fundamental problem with Greece, is that, just as the UK became under the Blair nonsense governments in the past, deliberately seeking a life free from work by evading all work permanently and by preferring to seek benefits , has become a way of life for far too many.

Essentially the same problem as Greece has developed. Both are unsustainable because both require the rest of the country, or countries, in the case of Greece, to subsidise ths selfishness that this approach entails. This is an interesting analogy in the modern approach to life and living which needs to be explored.

I have seen no evidence whatsoever that Greece has any intention of recognising that the Socialist policies they are following are totally unaffordable and wholly unsustainable. Nor have I seen any evidence, whatsoever, that Greece has actually started to change its approach by attempting to live within the means of Greece. For those two primary reasons, I cannot see how there is any reasonable prospect for the recovery of Greece. Time for the EU to face reality.

[Bodo]

OXI: Greece gets no more money, needs to introduce Drachma

NAI: Greece gets no more money, remains with the €, needs to pay back €340bn


How, does Syriza seriously think, could they dodge austerity?

[Bodo]

towser said:

Interesting and to be honest, at times sad, article on the Greek crisis.

https://www.byline.com/column/11/article/135

"Greece feels betrayed. The people "in the know" assured us that if we did as they instructed, the situation will improve. It didn't. It got worse. And then worse again. We agreed to buy back our own debt at a premium and, by doing so, gave time to large financial interests to disentangle themselves from Greece, to put buffers against contagion. Now they don't care. Greece was played. We were convinced to get in a lifeboat full of holes and now Europe wants to set us adrift."

The advice to Greece should have been: Try to see how YOU can solve the situation. Reflect on why Greece struggles. Stop being lazy and corrupt, and embrace your entrepreneurs.
Sorry Greece, if this advice went under when you were busy moaning and blaming everyone else for your misery. The current Greek attitude kills off all trust and confidence.

Even if Greece gets all debt cancelled, they will struggle to run their system off their own earnings. This society is truly fked, and it'll get worse when feeding from outside continues.

They are the European equivalent to a chav family that lives on benefits, and wants to have all the perks people have that contribute positively to society. Equally, they will never turn around - and by this I mean not positively contribute to society, but only feed themselves without benefits - like the chav family that has no glimpse about how to care for themselves. And never will.

[davepoth]

Bodo said:

Even if Greece gets all debt cancelled, they will struggle to run their system off their own earnings. This society is truly fked, and it'll get worse when feeding from outside continues.

Greece is running a primary budget surplus right now. If the debt is cancelled they'll actually be able to increase spending.

[Bodo]

Increasing spending is still far off continuing to finance their system.

[GlenMH]

Gargamel said:

johnfm said:

So, who is next?

Italy?

Italy still have a solid industrial base, good brand appeal, tourism and some world class talent, Italians are seriously bright and the northern part has Germanic work ethic.

Portugal would get my vote as the next in line.

Having been there for a month recently, I would put my money on Spain. Ongoing massive infrastructure spending, rising political turmoil and anti-EU sentiment.

Gargamel said:

However actually I really think Greece is a proper rogue state in so many more ways than the other EZ members.

The real question for this thread, is can the Euro currency survive a default of one of its members.

Agreed - this is all about the organisational maturity of the EU/Troika: have they got the processes and will to deal with a state that is determined not to conform. Having watched the floundering about over the past few weeks, then the future isn't looking bright.

Particularly if the currency markets see that it is possible to target a country and prise it out of the Euro...

[Steffan]

GlenMH said:

Gargamel said:

johnfm said:

So, who is next?

Italy?

Italy still have a solid industrial base, good brand appeal, tourism and some world class talent, Italians are seriously bright and the northern part has Germanic work ethic.

Portugal would get my vote as the next in line.

Having been there for a month recently, I would put my money on Spain. Ongoing massive infrastructure spending, rising political turmoil and anti-EU sentiment.

Gargamel said:

However actually I really think Greece is a proper rogue state in so many more ways than the other EZ members.

The real question for this thread, is can the Euro currency survive a default of one of its members.

Agreed - this is all about the organisational maturity of the EU/Troika: have they got the processes and will to deal with a state that is determined not to conform. Having watched the floundering about over the past few weeks, then the future isn't looking bright.

Particularly if the currency markets see that it is possible to target a country and prise it out of the Euro...

The suggestion that the currency markets might see an opportunity to prise a country out of the Euro is an entirely probable result of this failure by the EU to appreciate the inevitable economic failure of Greece! The disastrous attempts by the Major government, back in the nineties with the £ on the rack resulted in fortunes for Gerorge Sorros and Co ang huge losses for the British taxpayer. Could well happen again on this nonsence.

I cannot see how Greece can credibly continue within the Euro or the EU and I do think that the Domino effect could well cost the EU dear. Major changes are coming as a direct consequence of the complete and total inadequacy and foolishness that the EU has made of this mess with their total failure to understand either the extent of the underlying weakness within the Greek economy or to appreciate how impossible the Syriza government would make continuance. This will be a turning point in the future of the EU. Given the extent of the nonsense the EU is trying to support and the total refusal of Syriza to recognise that major changes are needed to the Greek economy, I can see no other end.

[davepoth]

GlenMH said:

Particularly if the currency markets see that it is possible to target a country and prise it out of the Euro...

That's the only thing that's kept Greece in this long. As soon as they smell profit, the markets will tear the Euro apart.

[Luke Warm]

Wolfgang Schaeuble says Greece could temporarily exit the eurozone as Yanis Varoufakis accuses creditors of "terrorism".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11717...

It seems more and more likely that Greece will exit the eurozone.

[GlenMH]

Do you think he has been reading this thread?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11717...

[LongQ]

An interesting take on the likely outcome of the Greek problem from Ruth Sunderland in the Daily Mail.


It's not the main section - scroll down a bit to the section titled "No Future"

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article...




Here's the hypothesis.

"Whatever happens in the short term with Greece, the single currency has no long-term future.

Here’s why, in two words: youth unemployment."


She may be right. Whether youth unemployment in parts of Europe means that people will seek to dump the Euro as they grow older and attain political majority or, perhaps, simply become more mobile in their search for a job (in which case the Euro may come to seem attractive) is yet to be completely visible. Moreover what happens to the local youth in the areas with higher employment as the job seekers move in en masse is yet to become clear.

Might it turn out that the brightest and best congregate in the most affluent countries leaving the poorer places with less local unemployment but less valuable human assets to employ?

Will the mobile young, having moved to more prosperous places, then seek to abandon the financial support needed by the places they have left behind? Or will tradition and natural "tribal" inclinations continue to influence developments in Europe long after the "colleagues" would imagine they should have achieved complete social, political and fiscal integration?

[xjsdriver]

davepoth said:

Greece is running a primary budget surplus right now. If the debt is cancelled they'll actually be able to increase spending.

Careful Dave, that sounds far too much like sensible discussion for these pages....that would never do for most on here!!!!.....

[Axionknight]

Vote day!

What are everybodies thoughts on the result?

Narrow yes vote imo. (No XJS, not that yes vote ).

[gruffalo]

When are the results due?

[Blib]

xjsdriver said:

davepoth said:

Greece is running a primary budget surplus right now. If the debt is cancelled they'll actually be able to increase spending.

Careful Dave, that sounds far too much like sensible discussion for these pages....that would never do for most on here!!!!.....

Laughing now?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/04/16...

[Axionknight]

gruffalo said:

When are the results due?

First results will be in around 9pm allegedly, but this is the Greek work ethic we are talking about here, so they probably mean 9pm on Thursday.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/05/greek...

[Gargamel]

xjsdriver said:

Careful Dave, that sounds far too much like sensible discussion for these pages....that would never do for most on here!!!!.....

Fair enough the numbers suggest Greece has been running a budget surplus, but since the last set of data it has emerged that some of the financial chicanery would make Maxwell's accountants blush.

Mostly it has been by deferring or not paying suppliers. Since the numbers they have also re hired public sector employers, including those 600 finance ministry cleaners, and re instated pensions to some groups.

The troika originally wanted 3.5% current account surplus, Greece's last numbers were around 1%, I don't see much scope to increase spending. (Italy for the record is running a CA Surplus of around 4%, another reason why I don't think they are next)

[NicD]

davepoth said:

Bodo said:

Even if Greece gets all debt cancelled, they will struggle to run their system off their own earnings. This society is truly fked, and it'll get worse when feeding from outside continues.

Greece is running a primary budget surplus right now. If the debt is cancelled they'll actually be able to increase spending.

Most people and businesses would bloom if they 'get all debt cancelled'.

Oh, apart from all those screwed by the others 'getting all debt cancelled'

Very sensible, NOT.