Iranian nuclear deal in 6 months?
Discussion
Spits - great post but due to being a tad rushed at work, Ill respond a little mroe later!
I would say that you view that Jews n Europe / US etc don;t need to worry is true to a point but that s how Jews in Germany for example felt in the 1920's. Truth is, a coule of generations of low anti-semitic issues in Europe do not even begin to remove thousands of years from the collective mindset. Also, state sponsoered or otherwise makes limited difference in real terms. Jews know they have a safety net now where once they did not.
Disporoprtiante numbers of casulaties I always see as a bit of a red herring myself. Israel has superb civil defence systems, houses in affected areas have to be built with shelters, Iron dome seems to work well. Problem is that Hammas et al do rather enjoy chucking stuff at Israel from very densly populated areas. The IDF has often even warned that specific areas will be hit but ultiamtly, if you know rockets will be launched and are being launched from a certain location, in a heavily populated area, there is a simple military reality of dealing with that. Long term of course one needs a two state solution and that will eventually come to pass but in the meantime, the missles and attacks have been very much reduced which is to the benefit of pretty much everybody oong term. Of course, any civillian death is a sad thing but Israel does try to minimise them, Hammas aims to maximise them.
And yep, right wing groups in Israel do have to much power, hence Bibi. Comes mainly from them having a PR system which is exactly why I am delighted we didn;t get one here!
More later hopefully.
I would say that you view that Jews n Europe / US etc don;t need to worry is true to a point but that s how Jews in Germany for example felt in the 1920's. Truth is, a coule of generations of low anti-semitic issues in Europe do not even begin to remove thousands of years from the collective mindset. Also, state sponsoered or otherwise makes limited difference in real terms. Jews know they have a safety net now where once they did not.
Disporoprtiante numbers of casulaties I always see as a bit of a red herring myself. Israel has superb civil defence systems, houses in affected areas have to be built with shelters, Iron dome seems to work well. Problem is that Hammas et al do rather enjoy chucking stuff at Israel from very densly populated areas. The IDF has often even warned that specific areas will be hit but ultiamtly, if you know rockets will be launched and are being launched from a certain location, in a heavily populated area, there is a simple military reality of dealing with that. Long term of course one needs a two state solution and that will eventually come to pass but in the meantime, the missles and attacks have been very much reduced which is to the benefit of pretty much everybody oong term. Of course, any civillian death is a sad thing but Israel does try to minimise them, Hammas aims to maximise them.
And yep, right wing groups in Israel do have to much power, hence Bibi. Comes mainly from them having a PR system which is exactly why I am delighted we didn;t get one here!
More later hopefully.
spitsfire said:
Jimbeaux said:
You do realize that non jewish people, many of Arab decent, live in Israel?
Yes, I was more getting at the 'Right of Return' laws. It's also worth pointing out on that front that it's very difficult for non jewish people to successfully apply for Israeli citizenship. Jimbeaux said:
However, you make good points and, as to the deal, I agree with you to a point; we need to wait and see what is really what here. 
Thanks. The difficulty as I see it is that the opponents argument is centred on the argument that any delay is simply allowing the Iranians time to develop the bomb, and therefore they have a right to do 'whatever necessary' to stop it happening. Jimbeaux said:
On the O/T part for a moment; I am certain that if a two state agreement is somehow achieved (which Hamas won't allow), that the sheer hate for a non-Muslim, very successful, democratic state in the region will not subside. They do not agree with Israel's right to exist, full stop. Those who know, know this.
You're right; they don't. But to some degree, they've been pushed into this position because the Muslim ME has been very badly treated by the US since WW2 - the US supported the Shah in Iran, who royally shafted the populace; they're still doing the same in Saudi, Kuwait, and the Gulf States; and moved from supporting Saddam (including selling him chemical weapons for some fun with the Kurds and the Iranians) to arguing that he was the worst leader in recorded history and invading the country. The Muslim ME populace have a reasonable claim that they've been retarded by US foreign policy, but they look at Israel (which has benefited enormously from the US) and think 'they're friends with the guys who've destabilised our region for a generation, and have done pretty well out of it, so death to America and death to Israel'. I think the only way out of this situation is for Israel to build bridges - it will cost a lot, require them to admit to having done some bad things, and expose them to some risk, but I don't see any other way to heal these wounds. The argument you've set out above about them not accepting Israel's right to exist was arguably similar to Northern Ireland 20 years ago, and that old wound is slowly healing: Don't assume that because a hurdle appears insurmountable it actually is. If we proceed on that basis we're all f
ked......Pappa Lurve said:
Spits - great post but due to being a tad rushed at work, Ill respond a little mroe later!
I would say that you view that Jews n Europe / US etc don;t need to worry is true to a point but that s how Jews in Germany for example felt in the 1920's. Truth is, a coule of generations of low anti-semitic issues in Europe do not even begin to remove thousands of years from the collective mindset. Also, state sponsoered or otherwise makes limited difference in real terms. Jews know they have a safety net now where once they did not.
Disporoprtiante numbers of casulaties I always see as a bit of a red herring myself. Israel has superb civil defence systems, houses in affected areas have to be built with shelters, Iron dome seems to work well. Problem is that Hammas et al do rather enjoy chucking stuff at Israel from very densly populated areas. The IDF has often even warned that specific areas will be hit but ultiamtly, if you know rockets will be launched and are being launched from a certain location, in a heavily populated area, there is a simple military reality of dealing with that. Long term of course one needs a two state solution and that will eventually come to pass but in the meantime, the missles and attacks have been very much reduced which is to the benefit of pretty much everybody oong term. Of course, any civillian death is a sad thing but Israel does try to minimise them, Hammas aims to maximise them.
And yep, right wing groups in Israel do have to much power, hence Bibi. Comes mainly from them having a PR system which is exactly why I am delighted we didn;t get one here!
More later hopefully.
Seeing as how Hamas purposely launches rockets from populated areas, knowing this will cause many innocent deaths due to retaliation, one would think the Palestinians would be getting more than pissed off at them for the willingness to sacrafice so many just for good news coverage of what the "evil Zionists" have done.I would say that you view that Jews n Europe / US etc don;t need to worry is true to a point but that s how Jews in Germany for example felt in the 1920's. Truth is, a coule of generations of low anti-semitic issues in Europe do not even begin to remove thousands of years from the collective mindset. Also, state sponsoered or otherwise makes limited difference in real terms. Jews know they have a safety net now where once they did not.
Disporoprtiante numbers of casulaties I always see as a bit of a red herring myself. Israel has superb civil defence systems, houses in affected areas have to be built with shelters, Iron dome seems to work well. Problem is that Hammas et al do rather enjoy chucking stuff at Israel from very densly populated areas. The IDF has often even warned that specific areas will be hit but ultiamtly, if you know rockets will be launched and are being launched from a certain location, in a heavily populated area, there is a simple military reality of dealing with that. Long term of course one needs a two state solution and that will eventually come to pass but in the meantime, the missles and attacks have been very much reduced which is to the benefit of pretty much everybody oong term. Of course, any civillian death is a sad thing but Israel does try to minimise them, Hammas aims to maximise them.
And yep, right wing groups in Israel do have to much power, hence Bibi. Comes mainly from them having a PR system which is exactly why I am delighted we didn;t get one here!
More later hopefully.
Edited by Jimbeaux on Monday 13th January 17:06
Seems they only needed 4 months.
Great for ME stability, not sure the Saudis will agree however!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-secur...
Great for ME stability, not sure the Saudis will agree however!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-secur...
Art0ir said:
Seems they only needed 4 months.
Great for ME stability, not sure the Saudis will agree however!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-secur...
Let them moan. I think we backed the wrong horse in this race anyway, although we really shouldn't have even been at the track. Great for ME stability, not sure the Saudis will agree however!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-secur...
There is massive pressure from the likes of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE (and of course Israel) for this deal not to materialise however it looks like progress is being made. A bit of balance in the Middle East is no bad thing imo. I hope this deal does go ahead.
And from a practical pov:
bbc said:
Talks have resumed in Switzerland ahead of Tuesday's deadline for a preliminary nuclear deal with Iran.
Foreign ministers from six world powers are meeting their Iranian counterpart, amid hopes of a breakthrough after almost 18 months of negotiations.
They want to impose limits that would prevent Iran from producing enough fuel for a nuclear weapon within a year.
Iran, which insists its nuclear programme is peaceful, wants to see crippling sanctions lifted in return.
Iranian and Western officials have said that a deal is possible, but that some issues are still to be resolved.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-32111464Foreign ministers from six world powers are meeting their Iranian counterpart, amid hopes of a breakthrough after almost 18 months of negotiations.
They want to impose limits that would prevent Iran from producing enough fuel for a nuclear weapon within a year.
Iran, which insists its nuclear programme is peaceful, wants to see crippling sanctions lifted in return.
Iranian and Western officials have said that a deal is possible, but that some issues are still to be resolved.
And from a practical pov:
telegraph said:
Iran nuclear deal to see $20 oil if Tehran floods crude market
Ending economic sanctions against Tehran could be a game changer for the oil markets
Flights to Tehran from Dubai have been crammed in recent months with Western executives flooding into the Iranian capital ahead of a potential lifting of economic sanctions.
Potentially one of the Middle East’s biggest economies, Iran has been frozen out by the West over its refusal to give up its aspirations to become a nuclear power. But a binding deal that would bring the Islamic state in from the cold appears tantalisingly close as negotiators thrash out terms in talks being held in Lausanne, Switzerland, over the weekend.
In terms of commodities, the biggest impact that a resumption of normal economic relations with Iran will open up is in the oil industry. Tehran is a sleeping oil giant, which has been frozen out of international markets and denied access to key technology and investment that could lead to a massive surge in its potential to produce oil and gas. The country holds 9pc of the world’s proven oil reserves and a nuclear deal that could open up its fields to foreign investment is potentially game changing for the industry.
With oil prices continuing to come under pressure from an estimated 2m barrels per day of excess supply sloshing around international markets, any significant increase in Iranian output could easily trigger a further rout in prices. The price of a barrel of crude has fallen 50pc since last June to trade around $50 per barrel but and agreement in Lausanne to restore Iran back into the international community could easily trigger a further sell down towards levels around $20 per barrel.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11502772/Iran-nuclear-deal-to-see-20-oil-if-Tehran-floods-crude-market.htmlEnding economic sanctions against Tehran could be a game changer for the oil markets
Flights to Tehran from Dubai have been crammed in recent months with Western executives flooding into the Iranian capital ahead of a potential lifting of economic sanctions.
Potentially one of the Middle East’s biggest economies, Iran has been frozen out by the West over its refusal to give up its aspirations to become a nuclear power. But a binding deal that would bring the Islamic state in from the cold appears tantalisingly close as negotiators thrash out terms in talks being held in Lausanne, Switzerland, over the weekend.
In terms of commodities, the biggest impact that a resumption of normal economic relations with Iran will open up is in the oil industry. Tehran is a sleeping oil giant, which has been frozen out of international markets and denied access to key technology and investment that could lead to a massive surge in its potential to produce oil and gas. The country holds 9pc of the world’s proven oil reserves and a nuclear deal that could open up its fields to foreign investment is potentially game changing for the industry.
With oil prices continuing to come under pressure from an estimated 2m barrels per day of excess supply sloshing around international markets, any significant increase in Iranian output could easily trigger a further rout in prices. The price of a barrel of crude has fallen 50pc since last June to trade around $50 per barrel but and agreement in Lausanne to restore Iran back into the international community could easily trigger a further sell down towards levels around $20 per barrel.
Edited by BlackLabel on Monday 30th March 18:19
Interesting article, BlackLabel - thanks for posting.
I find the long-term 'game' here very interesting - Bibi's visit to the US and previous slap-down of Obama in a press conference have considerably weakened the cross-party support for Israel in the US. The text messages about 'Arabs flocking' and promising there will be no Palestinian State on his watch will allow some commentators in the US to posit that Israel is not necessarily a partner in peace - The New Yorker has already been getting stuck in. If Kerry manages to get a deal with the Iranians, it will be considered a massive win for Obama (outside of the hawkish world of the American Right).
If a Democrat wins in 2016, the White House might well have progressively improving relations with Iran, and worsening ones with Israel. If Western money is pouring into Iran, there will be a lobby in Washington pushing to strengthen that relationship, potentially counterbalancing the powerful AIPAC.
Any peace process with the Americans as brokers has struggled, partly because the US is compromised by its close relationship with Israel and often distant/parsimonious relationship with the Muslim ME: It's possible that a mild rebalancing of these relationships might open allow the US to regain a bit of credibility in the region.
That, however, would just be icing on the cake - the big win will be preventing the ME becoming a collection of mutually antagonistic, tribal, nuclear armed nation states. No prizes for guessing how that one would end.....
For those who doubt the global power and reach of the Israeli lobby, it's worth watching Peter Oborne's documentary on Israeli lobbying in the UK.
ETA: I'm not picking on Israel here for any reason beyond I don't think it's particularly healthy for one Nation State to campaign in another's domestic politics, and the unparalleled success of the Israeli lobby has given it a rather remarkable capacity to lobby against the Iranian deal from inside other countries legislative bodies.
I find the long-term 'game' here very interesting - Bibi's visit to the US and previous slap-down of Obama in a press conference have considerably weakened the cross-party support for Israel in the US. The text messages about 'Arabs flocking' and promising there will be no Palestinian State on his watch will allow some commentators in the US to posit that Israel is not necessarily a partner in peace - The New Yorker has already been getting stuck in. If Kerry manages to get a deal with the Iranians, it will be considered a massive win for Obama (outside of the hawkish world of the American Right).
If a Democrat wins in 2016, the White House might well have progressively improving relations with Iran, and worsening ones with Israel. If Western money is pouring into Iran, there will be a lobby in Washington pushing to strengthen that relationship, potentially counterbalancing the powerful AIPAC.
Any peace process with the Americans as brokers has struggled, partly because the US is compromised by its close relationship with Israel and often distant/parsimonious relationship with the Muslim ME: It's possible that a mild rebalancing of these relationships might open allow the US to regain a bit of credibility in the region.
That, however, would just be icing on the cake - the big win will be preventing the ME becoming a collection of mutually antagonistic, tribal, nuclear armed nation states. No prizes for guessing how that one would end.....
For those who doubt the global power and reach of the Israeli lobby, it's worth watching Peter Oborne's documentary on Israeli lobbying in the UK.
ETA: I'm not picking on Israel here for any reason beyond I don't think it's particularly healthy for one Nation State to campaign in another's domestic politics, and the unparalleled success of the Israeli lobby has given it a rather remarkable capacity to lobby against the Iranian deal from inside other countries legislative bodies.
Edited by spitsfire on Tuesday 31st March 10:21
BlackLabel said:
There is massive pressure from the likes of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE (and of course Israel) for this deal not to materialise however it looks like progress is being made. A bit of balance in the Middle East is no bad thing imo. I hope this deal does go ahead.
And from a practical pov:
Hadn't considered Iranian oil, thanks for article Blacklabel.bbc said:
Talks have resumed in Switzerland ahead of Tuesday's deadline for a preliminary nuclear deal with Iran.
Foreign ministers from six world powers are meeting their Iranian counterpart, amid hopes of a breakthrough after almost 18 months of negotiations.
They want to impose limits that would prevent Iran from producing enough fuel for a nuclear weapon within a year.
Iran, which insists its nuclear programme is peaceful, wants to see crippling sanctions lifted in return.
Iranian and Western officials have said that a deal is possible, but that some issues are still to be resolved.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-32111464Foreign ministers from six world powers are meeting their Iranian counterpart, amid hopes of a breakthrough after almost 18 months of negotiations.
They want to impose limits that would prevent Iran from producing enough fuel for a nuclear weapon within a year.
Iran, which insists its nuclear programme is peaceful, wants to see crippling sanctions lifted in return.
Iranian and Western officials have said that a deal is possible, but that some issues are still to be resolved.
And from a practical pov:
telegraph said:
Iran nuclear deal to see $20 oil if Tehran floods crude market
Ending economic sanctions against Tehran could be a game changer for the oil markets
Flights to Tehran from Dubai have been crammed in recent months with Western executives flooding into the Iranian capital ahead of a potential lifting of economic sanctions.
Potentially one of the Middle East’s biggest economies, Iran has been frozen out by the West over its refusal to give up its aspirations to become a nuclear power. But a binding deal that would bring the Islamic state in from the cold appears tantalisingly close as negotiators thrash out terms in talks being held in Lausanne, Switzerland, over the weekend.
In terms of commodities, the biggest impact that a resumption of normal economic relations with Iran will open up is in the oil industry. Tehran is a sleeping oil giant, which has been frozen out of international markets and denied access to key technology and investment that could lead to a massive surge in its potential to produce oil and gas. The country holds 9pc of the world’s proven oil reserves and a nuclear deal that could open up its fields to foreign investment is potentially game changing for the industry.
With oil prices continuing to come under pressure from an estimated 2m barrels per day of excess supply sloshing around international markets, any significant increase in Iranian output could easily trigger a further rout in prices. The price of a barrel of crude has fallen 50pc since last June to trade around $50 per barrel but and agreement in Lausanne to restore Iran back into the international community could easily trigger a further sell down towards levels around $20 per barrel.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11502772/Iran-nuclear-deal-to-see-20-oil-if-Tehran-floods-crude-market.htmlEnding economic sanctions against Tehran could be a game changer for the oil markets
Flights to Tehran from Dubai have been crammed in recent months with Western executives flooding into the Iranian capital ahead of a potential lifting of economic sanctions.
Potentially one of the Middle East’s biggest economies, Iran has been frozen out by the West over its refusal to give up its aspirations to become a nuclear power. But a binding deal that would bring the Islamic state in from the cold appears tantalisingly close as negotiators thrash out terms in talks being held in Lausanne, Switzerland, over the weekend.
In terms of commodities, the biggest impact that a resumption of normal economic relations with Iran will open up is in the oil industry. Tehran is a sleeping oil giant, which has been frozen out of international markets and denied access to key technology and investment that could lead to a massive surge in its potential to produce oil and gas. The country holds 9pc of the world’s proven oil reserves and a nuclear deal that could open up its fields to foreign investment is potentially game changing for the industry.
With oil prices continuing to come under pressure from an estimated 2m barrels per day of excess supply sloshing around international markets, any significant increase in Iranian output could easily trigger a further rout in prices. The price of a barrel of crude has fallen 50pc since last June to trade around $50 per barrel but and agreement in Lausanne to restore Iran back into the international community could easily trigger a further sell down towards levels around $20 per barrel.
Edited by BlackLabel on Monday 30th March 18:19
Maybe it is naive question but decades of isolation haven't broken the Islamic revolution so how will more of the same work?
Why not talk to them, can it make the current mess any worse? If we don't like the answer we can walk away and leave things as they are.
I can understand Israels view of don't trust them an inch but nothing gets solved by not talking. Maybe a deal will change the landscape just enough for a bit of progress, if nothing else it will give Netanyahu something else to belly ache about.
Anyway from what I know about Iran, it is the Supreme Leader who would have his finger on the nuclear button if they have/had nuclear weapons and he seems to be much calmer than say Armadinejad who was just a loose cannon mouthing off.
Why not talk to them, can it make the current mess any worse? If we don't like the answer we can walk away and leave things as they are.
I can understand Israels view of don't trust them an inch but nothing gets solved by not talking. Maybe a deal will change the landscape just enough for a bit of progress, if nothing else it will give Netanyahu something else to belly ache about.
Anyway from what I know about Iran, it is the Supreme Leader who would have his finger on the nuclear button if they have/had nuclear weapons and he seems to be much calmer than say Armadinejad who was just a loose cannon mouthing off.
gottans said:
Maybe it is naive question but decades of isolation haven't broken the Islamic revolution so how will more of the same work?
Why not talk to them, can it make the current mess any worse? If we don't like the answer we can walk away and leave things as they are.
I can understand Israels view of don't trust them an inch but nothing gets solved by not talking. Maybe a deal will change the landscape just enough for a bit of progress, if nothing else it will give Netanyahu something else to belly ache about.
Anyway from what I know about Iran, it is the Supreme Leader who would have his finger on the nuclear button if they have/had nuclear weapons and he seems to be much calmer than say Armadinejad who was just a loose cannon mouthing off.
Sanctions have their place but I'm also a firm believer that it is trade that has led to a sustained period of relative peace and huge increases in wealth worldwide. Better relations with Iran can only lead to good things in my opinion, provided they don't adversely affect other relationships.Why not talk to them, can it make the current mess any worse? If we don't like the answer we can walk away and leave things as they are.
I can understand Israels view of don't trust them an inch but nothing gets solved by not talking. Maybe a deal will change the landscape just enough for a bit of progress, if nothing else it will give Netanyahu something else to belly ache about.
Anyway from what I know about Iran, it is the Supreme Leader who would have his finger on the nuclear button if they have/had nuclear weapons and he seems to be much calmer than say Armadinejad who was just a loose cannon mouthing off.
Well done to those who brokered this deal.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-335376...
Anything the Saudis, Qataris and Netanyahu are against has my vote. Israel is an amazing nation and barring the illegal settlers is full of lovely people but BiBi has been crying wolf and has been talking about Iran's 'imminent' nuclear program for 25 years. He is in the same mold as Rumsfield and Cheney. He was also wrong about Iraq having nukes.
Good luck to Iran. And oh what a great problem to have.
How to spend $100 billion? Policy headaches loom for Iran
I'm not making excuses for the crazy Iranian mullahs but give me an Iranian Mullah over a terrorist inspiring and sponsoring Wahabbi any day of the week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-335376...
Anything the Saudis, Qataris and Netanyahu are against has my vote. Israel is an amazing nation and barring the illegal settlers is full of lovely people but BiBi has been crying wolf and has been talking about Iran's 'imminent' nuclear program for 25 years. He is in the same mold as Rumsfield and Cheney. He was also wrong about Iraq having nukes.
Good luck to Iran. And oh what a great problem to have.
How to spend $100 billion? Policy headaches loom for Iran
I'm not making excuses for the crazy Iranian mullahs but give me an Iranian Mullah over a terrorist inspiring and sponsoring Wahabbi any day of the week.
Edited by BlackLabel on Thursday 16th July 19:16
Art0ir said:
Iran has a very large, young, well educated middle class. IF the economy booms thanks to these sanctions being lifted we will hopefully see secularism creep in.
Even their government has more cabinet members with Ph.D. degrees from U.S. universities than the American government does. The only reason we haven't re-introduced them sooner into the international community is because of our so called allies in the Middle East. The same allies who did their best to force us into attacking Iraq (not that we needed much forcing).
Edited by BlackLabel on Friday 17th July 02:48
BlackLabel said:
Art0ir said:
Iran has a very large, young, well educated middle class. IF the economy booms thanks to these sanctions being lifted we will hopefully see secularism creep in.
Even their government has more cabinet members with Ph.D. degrees from U.S. universities than the American government does. The only reason we haven't re-introduced them sooner into the international community is because of our so called allies in the Middle East. The same allies who did their best to force us into attacking Iraq (not that we needed much forcing).
Edited by BlackLabel on Friday 17th July 02:48
Watching al Jazeera on Friday evening - they covered a speech by Khameini (his first since the deal was announced) which was preceded by the crowd being lead through chants of 'death to America' and 'death to the West'.
Is this just al Jaz getting the translation wrong? Or do the Iranians still publicly call for 'death'?
Remind me again why the new deal is so good?
Is this just al Jaz getting the translation wrong? Or do the Iranians still publicly call for 'death'?
Remind me again why the new deal is so good?
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