UKIP - The Future - Volume 2
Discussion
Guam said:
Zod said:
Yeah, yeah, becasue he doesn't just ask Farage to write his manifesto. We've heard it before, but it's bunk.
Are you feeling quite well ZOD, that makes no rational sense whatsoever against my post?Are you sure you aren't spending too long in the sun, perhaps you need a good milliners old bean?
Cameron had to reshuffle. He was bound to be criticised for it. He's made mistakes (most notably in moving Gove - looks like a capitulation), but has also made some difficult, but correct choices, particularly in removing Hague, who for all his brilliance, was doing nothing as Foreign Secretary.
FiF said:
They still don't get that it's not all about the EU. It's not all about immigration either.
Shallow shallow Tories.
Indeed. And for those that is more likely to be about immigration, well I think they're more likely to be (ex) Labour voters who are never going to vote Tory anyway. In the EU elections UKIP mainly went after the Labour vote IMO, the conservatives that they have vote UKIP because the Tories are not conservative and they object to being ruled from abroad.Shallow shallow Tories.
Guam said:
Do you really think it will be that Easy Mr Fallon?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservat...
Does anyone in the Conservative party concede that Mr Cameron is unlikely to win any concessions and that we give power away to the EU every day?http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservat...
Latest forecast for 2015 GE from the polling observatory.
Basically a slow decline in Tory prospects but still too close to call. Labour small lead but nothing like enough to ensure they will have overall majority nor, considering the inbuilt bias in the electoral system, sufficient to be largest party in a hung parliament.
Also if the Tories recover a little as governments usually, but not always, do in the run up they will be in same position.
Depends how well LD do. Based on% they should do disastrously but when you wind it into seat level analysis they may do better in their centres of support than is expected.
Level of support for two main parties combined at a historically low level. UKIP taken the pox on all their houses protest vote to historical highs.
Link
Basically a slow decline in Tory prospects but still too close to call. Labour small lead but nothing like enough to ensure they will have overall majority nor, considering the inbuilt bias in the electoral system, sufficient to be largest party in a hung parliament.
Also if the Tories recover a little as governments usually, but not always, do in the run up they will be in same position.
Depends how well LD do. Based on% they should do disastrously but when you wind it into seat level analysis they may do better in their centres of support than is expected.
Level of support for two main parties combined at a historically low level. UKIP taken the pox on all their houses protest vote to historical highs.
Link
Steve Fisher on a similar page but with distinct slant towards Tory being largest party.
Also noting the UKIP slide by 2% keeping it on topic.
Note all polling from before reshuffle.
Personal comment:- By rights Cameron sacking Owen Paterson should make Tory fortunes slide but then I might be a bit biased on that.
Link
Actually looking at it again. Far be it from me to criticise an Oxford Prof but I reckon Steve's got his figures wrong. Nit picking in the extreme admittedly.
Also noting the UKIP slide by 2% keeping it on topic.
Note all polling from before reshuffle.
Personal comment:- By rights Cameron sacking Owen Paterson should make Tory fortunes slide but then I might be a bit biased on that.
Link
Actually looking at it again. Far be it from me to criticise an Oxford Prof but I reckon Steve's got his figures wrong. Nit picking in the extreme admittedly.
Edited by FiF on Friday 18th July 08:56
Back from a very pleasant break in Bulgaria. Totally avoided any discussion / thoughts of politics until about 4 hours before we flew out..........came up when discussing buying property in the area with a very nice, intelligent and well traveled local Bulgarian national..... however I should say that his opinions are not necessarily representative of anything more than his own personal opinion.
In summary:
He liked Nigel Farage / UKIP and thinks the UK should get out of the EU.
He admired our Queen, wanted his own royal family back (related I believe).
He did not want Bulgaria to be part of another federalist state, EU or otherwise.
He felt that once a country sells its soul to the EU for material gain, like borrowing money from a bank the price to be paid, in the longrun, will be too high.
He likened the EU bureaucrats' ambitions to those of Hitler (his words) and Russia's except without bullets and force.
He thought the whole EU project was going to end in disaster and hoped that UK withdrawal would be the catalyst to a complete meltdown.
He thought all politicians were crooks with only their own interests at heart and mentioned that, unlike the UK, not a single Bulgarian politician had been imprisoned in the years since Russia's withdrawal.
He raised all these issues and I never let on my own thoughts, opinions or allegiances although I must confess I did make encouraging noises and probably won't be buying a property there anytime soon.
On a different note by way of an observation without comment...... With the exception of Sunday night( world cup final) the German bar / restaurant appeared to have more staff than customers whereas the many, many others were extremely busy.
In summary:
He liked Nigel Farage / UKIP and thinks the UK should get out of the EU.
He admired our Queen, wanted his own royal family back (related I believe).
He did not want Bulgaria to be part of another federalist state, EU or otherwise.
He felt that once a country sells its soul to the EU for material gain, like borrowing money from a bank the price to be paid, in the longrun, will be too high.
He likened the EU bureaucrats' ambitions to those of Hitler (his words) and Russia's except without bullets and force.
He thought the whole EU project was going to end in disaster and hoped that UK withdrawal would be the catalyst to a complete meltdown.
He thought all politicians were crooks with only their own interests at heart and mentioned that, unlike the UK, not a single Bulgarian politician had been imprisoned in the years since Russia's withdrawal.
He raised all these issues and I never let on my own thoughts, opinions or allegiances although I must confess I did make encouraging noises and probably won't be buying a property there anytime soon.
On a different note by way of an observation without comment...... With the exception of Sunday night( world cup final) the German bar / restaurant appeared to have more staff than customers whereas the many, many others were extremely busy.
Opinion piece by Goodwin from an analysis of how much the parties spend on their campaigns in marginals, target seats vs what they feel are safe seats.
Usual stuff in the comments section including observations about UKIP slide to single figures. Yet see preview of two polls to be published tomorrow.
Interesting times but still a hung parliament.
Ashcroft has a huge 14000 respondent poll to be published next week.
Ukip’s popularity is no surprise given the main parties’ neglect of voters
Polls to be published tomorrow.
ComRes/Mirror poll CON 31% LAB 34% LDEM 9% UKIP 17%.
Opinium/Observer poll CoN 30% LAB 34% LDEM 9% UKIP 17%
Usual stuff in the comments section including observations about UKIP slide to single figures. Yet see preview of two polls to be published tomorrow.
Interesting times but still a hung parliament.
Ashcroft has a huge 14000 respondent poll to be published next week.
Ukip’s popularity is no surprise given the main parties’ neglect of voters
Polls to be published tomorrow.
ComRes/Mirror poll CON 31% LAB 34% LDEM 9% UKIP 17%.
Opinium/Observer poll CoN 30% LAB 34% LDEM 9% UKIP 17%
Turns out that the Government report on EU competencies was deliberately delayed by the LibDems as it had some unfavourable things to say about abuse of EU freedom of movement rules.
Would have caused a st storm if this had been released in the run up to the recent elections.
Key points.
Organised criminals exploiting the rules for drug, counterfeit goods and people trafficking.
Also supports claims by councils that this results in extra pressure on housing and school places.
Plus supports the issue of lowering wages for cleaners and trades.
Stuff that UKIP was shouted down and accused of racism for suggesting such things.
Remember report suppressed / delayed by the coalition principally the LD.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10983892/...
Would have caused a st storm if this had been released in the run up to the recent elections.
Key points.
Organised criminals exploiting the rules for drug, counterfeit goods and people trafficking.
Also supports claims by councils that this results in extra pressure on housing and school places.
Plus supports the issue of lowering wages for cleaners and trades.
Stuff that UKIP was shouted down and accused of racism for suggesting such things.
Remember report suppressed / delayed by the coalition principally the LD.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10983892/...
FiF said:
Turns out that the Government report on EU competencies was deliberately delayed by the LibDems as it had some unfavourable things to say about abuse of EU freedom of movement rules.
Would have caused a st storm if this had been released in the run up to the recent elections.
Key points.
Organised criminals exploiting the rules for drug, counterfeit goods and people trafficking.
Also supports claims by councils that this results in extra pressure on housing and school places.
Plus supports the issue of lowering wages for cleaners and trades.
Stuff that UKIP was shouted down and accused of racism for suggesting such things.
Remember report suppressed / delayed by the coalition principally the LD.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10983892/...
They needed a study to work that one out?Would have caused a st storm if this had been released in the run up to the recent elections.
Key points.
Organised criminals exploiting the rules for drug, counterfeit goods and people trafficking.
Also supports claims by councils that this results in extra pressure on housing and school places.
Plus supports the issue of lowering wages for cleaners and trades.
Stuff that UKIP was shouted down and accused of racism for suggesting such things.
Remember report suppressed / delayed by the coalition principally the LD.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10983892/...
Yep. His marginals survey is interesting. He is saying UKIP is clear ahead in Thanet south and Thurrock.
Also pointing out what Guam and others have been saying that the national% doesn't give a clear guide when you consider some key seats e.g Boston and Skegness etc.
He also points out how many Labour voters are migrating and that UKIP may well spoil the chances of Labour taking some key marginals off Cons that they really need to take.
Of course election still a long way off yet and each party needs to hold their support and gain.
Still incredibly interesting. Almost once in a lifetime scenario panning out, possibly.
Also pointing out what Guam and others have been saying that the national% doesn't give a clear guide when you consider some key seats e.g Boston and Skegness etc.
He also points out how many Labour voters are migrating and that UKIP may well spoil the chances of Labour taking some key marginals off Cons that they really need to take.
Of course election still a long way off yet and each party needs to hold their support and gain.
Still incredibly interesting. Almost once in a lifetime scenario panning out, possibly.
Art0ir said:
FiF said:
Still incredibly interesting. Almost once in a lifetime scenario panning out, possibly.
I can't remember ever being as interested in politics anyway.Stale out of touch main party's and for the first time a right of center
Party for the working person interests and not just a least worse choice between pro crony capitalism or pro union crony capitalism ..
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_leader_nigel_farage_annou...
Farage putting together his 'front bench team' for next year's GE.
Farage putting together his 'front bench team' for next year's GE.
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