My conspiracy theory....

Author
Discussion

amstrange1

599 posts

175 months

Friday 5th September 2014
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egomeister said:
Elon Musk is smart, and Tesla is ahead of the curve when it comes to taking cost out of a vehicle I reckon.
The established OEMs are experts at keeping the BOM cost of a vehicle low, I don't think Tesla have anything over them there.

However, the big OEMs' baggage is an established brand name and decades of experience. In order to protect that brand, you do your damnedest to make sure that new product is thoroughly validated and tested - and with your decades of experience your idea of "thorough" means lengthy and expensive test programmes.

Tesla are a newcomer with a relatively niche, low-volume product. They've nothing to lose and everything to gain, so they can take more risks. If they release a product that's flaky or unreliable, they've got no profitable high-volume products to get hit by the damage to the brand.

TransverseTight

753 posts

144 months

Friday 5th September 2014
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MarshPhantom said:
It's the govt that gets most of your £130 a week on diesel, leccy motors only make sense as fuel is so expensive. I can't ever see them catching on in countries where fuel is considerbly cheaper than ours which means they have a limited market which is why many manufacturers haven't jumped on the bandwagon..


Edited by MarshPhantom on Friday 5th September 08:20
Is covered that in a previous thread. ..
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

Conclusion: without taxes EVs cost 2.8p/mile on E7 or 5.2p on peak rate charge.
Petrol and diesel are 4.2 and 4.8p / mile but can't remember which.

Besides... Where in the world has low taxes on fuel and high income? USA and EVs make sense there too.

Fogey

9 posts

114 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
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Amateurish said:
Doesn't it come down to battery cost? For a family car doing a reliable 350 miles you would probably need over 100kwh of usable battery capacity. Which would cost about £35k at today's battery prices.
Who does 350 miles in a day?

A family car that does 350 miles in a week is covering 50 miles a day, and can charge overnight. Hell, you can recharge that range at a rapid charger in less than half an hour.

Amateurish

7,696 posts

221 months

Monday 29th September 2014
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Some people do 350 miles in a day. Or even more! Not sure what your point is?

ORD

18,086 posts

126 months

Monday 29th September 2014
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One of the problems is that people are actually quite optimistic about how quickly the technology will improve. Why would I buy an electric car now when I know that they will much much better in 5 years and I don't really lose anything by driving petrol cars until then?

98elise

26,364 posts

160 months

Monday 29th September 2014
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Amateurish said:
Some people do 350 miles in a day. Or even more! Not sure what your point is?
Those people probably need a diesel.

I don't see full EV's a replacement for all drivetrains. In the forseeable future there will be EV's, RX, Hybrids, ICE's. You choose what best suits your needs, just like you do at the moment.

I expect conventional ICE's will eventually die out though. An electric drivetrain is better than directly driving the wheels from the ICE, even if all your energy is created from an ICE. There will be a tipping point where the instant torque of an EV drivetrain will be a must have, even if the energy storage isn't batteries.

One way or another we will always need a means of travelling long distances with no more than a few short breaks.

TransverseTight

753 posts

144 months

Thursday 2nd October 2014
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My ideal car would have a 50kwh battery which would do between 150-200 miles on a charge as i3 and tesla owners are getting between 0.25-0.33kWh/miles. Then stick a small removeable rex in the frunk. Based on say a GS500 bike engine but with the gearbox, and alternator replaced with a custom genset. Separate tank which stays in the car (empty) along with the airbox and exhaust. connecting back up is about as difficult as plugging in a dyson and sticking on the brush attachment, and using a hozelock hosepipe. All it needs is leccy, air, water and fuel connectors and its done. Or you could just leave it in and kart 50kg of bike motor around, just in case the EV charger is out of order or has an ICE car parked in the space.

There are new battieries coming which can charge in minutes are much lower cost and very high density. Well potentially. Still in the labs, so just around the corner may be 20 years. Google solid state batteries if you are interested.

AmitG

3,272 posts

159 months

Thursday 2nd October 2014
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98elise said:
I don't see full EV's a replacement for all drivetrains. In the forseeable future there will be EV's, RX, Hybrids, ICE's. You choose what best suits your needs, just like you do at the moment.
I think this is why Toyota have decided EVs are a dead end and hydrogen is the future, because it can replace all of the above. It covers every use case. They must reckon it's easier to solve the problem of creating and storing hydrogen, than it is to solve the problem of scaling up EVs for high range and heavy duty.


Amateurish

7,696 posts

221 months

Friday 3rd October 2014
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Hydrogen fuel cell cars *are* fully EV. They just use hydrogen instead of batteries for fuel. Of course, with the big disadvantage that you need a hydrogen filling station.

AmitG

3,272 posts

159 months

Friday 3rd October 2014
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Amateurish said:
Hydrogen fuel cell cars *are* fully EV. They just use hydrogen instead of batteries for fuel. Of course, with the big disadvantage that you need a hydrogen filling station.
Good point smile I guess I meant "battery EVs".


Swervin_Mervin

4,429 posts

237 months

Friday 3rd October 2014
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Amateurish said:
Hydrogen fuel cell cars *are* fully EV. They just use hydrogen instead of batteries for fuel. Of course, with the big disadvantage that you need a hydrogen filling station.
Hasn't Boris recently signed London up to a load of filling stations?

98elise

26,364 posts

160 months

Saturday 4th October 2014
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AmitG said:
98elise said:
I don't see full EV's a replacement for all drivetrains. In the forseeable future there will be EV's, RX, Hybrids, ICE's. You choose what best suits your needs, just like you do at the moment.
I think this is why Toyota have decided EVs are a dead end and hydrogen is the future, because it can replace all of the above. It covers every use case. They must reckon it's easier to solve the problem of creating and storing hydrogen, than it is to solve the problem of scaling up EVs for high range and heavy duty.
Hydrogen is just a very very inefficient means of storing electrical energy. Its also need a whole new infractucture.

EV's can currently do up to 300 miles, which is about 5 hours of driving. A supercharge can then give you most of that range back in the time it takes to eat a McD's. That will suit most peoples driving.

That said for people who need to long journeys regularly then an RX is probably a better solution. The pure ICE is a dead duck, but I doubt we will see everyone switching to pure EV for the same reason we don't just have one shape of car.