Malaysian Airlines 777 down on Ukraine / Russia Border?
Discussion
Would of thought so, Ukraine's army are making pretty good gains but are suffering fairly high loss of life. The rebels will get to a stage and most will filter back to Russia while they can. The only way it will drag on longer is if that new missile launcher the rebels has manages to gain them ground and a decent number of new recruits filters through
rich85uk said:
That's f
king horrendous, I'm guessing that applies to everyone? Well goodbye captured Ukrainian soldiers then and I dread to think what they will do to the captured members of the far right sector
from what I can make out of the far right sector - fking horrendous, I'm guessing that applies to everyone? Well goodbye captured Ukrainian soldiers then and I dread to think what they will do to the captured members of the far right sectork 'em they're a buncha s and the rebels will be doing mankind a favour 
Looks like the rebels have some serious firepower now, suspected to be a GRAD BM21 attack
The aftermath
Filmed by the rebels from a distance, non graphic but will pretty scary to think they have access to that
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=342_1408443061
The aftermath
Filmed by the rebels from a distance, non graphic but will pretty scary to think they have access to that
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=342_1408443061
rich85uk said:
Looks like the rebels have some serious firepower now, suspected to be a GRAD BM21 attack
The aftermath
Filmed by the rebels from a distance, non graphic but will pretty scary to think they have access to that
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=342_1408443061
I don't think the kit shown in the photo is a Grad 21.The aftermath
Filmed by the rebels from a distance, non graphic but will pretty scary to think they have access to that
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=342_1408443061
Edited by XJ Flyer on Wednesday 20th August 00:14
Have the Ruskies invaded yet? You know, what with them massing on the border/entering Ukraine in tanks etc etc etc?
And this Russian military convoy that the Ukrainians say they so utterly destroyed that parts of it "no longer exist", I understand the Americans can't find any evidence of it, does anyone know if thats still the case?
And this Russian military convoy that the Ukrainians say they so utterly destroyed that parts of it "no longer exist", I understand the Americans can't find any evidence of it, does anyone know if thats still the case?
KareemK said:
Have the Ruskies invaded yet? You know, what with them massing on the border/entering Ukraine in tanks etc etc etc?
They have been invading ever since they started sending troops, special forces, mercenaries and armoured vehicles across the border.KareemK said:
And this Russian military convoy that the Ukrainians say they so utterly destroyed that parts of it "no longer exist", I understand the Americans can't find any evidence of it, does anyone know if thats still the case?
Which Russian convoy? There have been severalskyrover said:
KareemK said:
Have the Ruskies invaded yet? You know, what with them massing on the border/entering Ukraine in tanks etc etc etc?
They have been invading ever since they started sending troops, special forces, mercenaries and armoured vehicles across the border.
skyrover said:
KareemK said:
And this Russian military convoy that the Ukrainians say they so utterly destroyed that parts of it "no longer exist", I understand the Americans can't find any evidence of it, does anyone know if thats still the case?
Which Russian convoy? There have been severalA photo of a large charcoal-coloured smudge on the road would suffice I suppose.
KareemK said:
skyrover said:
They have been invading ever since they started sending troops, special forces, mercenaries and armoured vehicles across the border.
skyrover said:
KareemK said:
And this Russian military convoy that the Ukrainians say they so utterly destroyed that parts of it "no longer exist", I understand the Americans can't find any evidence of it, does anyone know if thats still the case?
Which Russian convoy? There have been severalKareemK said:
There's only one that the Urainian Govt say the attacked and parts of it "no longer exist".
A photo of a large charcoal-coloured smudge on the road would suffice I suppose.
A photo of a large charcoal-coloured smudge on the road would suffice I suppose.
There you go... a nice bit of ruined Russian military hardware.
Please note this may be from anywhere in East Ukraine, but it's about as valid as anything you have contributed so far.
Edited by skyrover on Wednesday 20th August 10:43
rich85uk said:
Looks like the rebels have some serious firepower now, suspected to be a GRAD BM21 attack
Filmed by the rebels from a distance, non graphic but will pretty scary to think they have access to that
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=342_1408443061
Impressive. By way of contrast, in 1917/18 some tactical British barrages landed 400 shells/minute on German positions.Filmed by the rebels from a distance, non graphic but will pretty scary to think they have access to that
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=342_1408443061
SS7
skyrover said:
There you go... a nice bit of ruined Russian military hardware.
Please note this may be from anywhere in East Ukraine, but it's about as valid as anything you have contributed so far.
As for the picture
About as plausible as your previous assertions that the Russians have already begun invading.
shoestring7 said:
rich85uk said:
Looks like the rebels have some serious firepower now, suspected to be a GRAD BM21 attack
Filmed by the rebels from a distance, non graphic but will pretty scary to think they have access to that
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=342_1408443061
Impressive. By way of contrast, in 1917/18 some tactical British barrages landed 400 shells/minute on German positions.Filmed by the rebels from a distance, non graphic but will pretty scary to think they have access to that
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=342_1408443061
SS7
www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGV1Duq5wLk
XJ Flyer said:
Use of overwhelming artillery power is one of the main essential components of Russian military doctrine.Which is probably the best clue which shows that Putin has no intention of getting involved in eastern Ukraine in any major degree.If he did everyone would know about it.Which just leaves the question of what happens if he is seen to have been a loser by keeping the argument small scale and limited.
You seem disappointed, poor soul.All along there have been people saying that this is just a skirmish and that Putin cannot afford to go too far because Russia would end up ruined.
All along there have been people saying that Putin would push as hard as he could to get as much as he could get away with but that, ultimately, he would have to back off.
The fact that we are not seeing the Russian hordes pouring over the border tells us everything. I suspect this will all be over in a few months time. Crimea peninsula will stay Russian. Everything else will just calm down.
As for Putin, he is in the strange position where the Russian masses like him more than they used to while the power brokers inside Russia are not so happy. I think the most likely outcome is a return to some "normality" and then a lot of political pressure to get the sanctions lifted in the months ahead.
We shall see.
I am not sure what this means in terms of getting to the bottom of the fate of MH17, however. I think the world will know what happened, but it will go unpunished.
toppstuff said:
XJ Flyer said:
Use of overwhelming artillery power is one of the main essential components of Russian military doctrine.Which is probably the best clue which shows that Putin has no intention of getting involved in eastern Ukraine in any major degree.If he did everyone would know about it.Which just leaves the question of what happens if he is seen to have been a loser by keeping the argument small scale and limited.
You seem disappointed, poor soul.All along there have been people saying that this is just a skirmish and that Putin cannot afford to go too far because Russia would end up ruined.
All along there have been people saying that Putin would push as hard as he could to get as much as he could get away with but that, ultimately, he would have to back off.
The fact that we are not seeing the Russian hordes pouring over the border tells us everything. I suspect this will all be over in a few months time. Crimea peninsula will stay Russian. Everything else will just calm down.
As for Putin, he is in the strange position where the Russian masses like him more than they used to while the power brokers inside Russia are not so happy. I think the most likely outcome is a return to some "normality" and then a lot of political pressure to get the sanctions lifted in the months ahead.
We shall see.
I am not sure what this means in terms of getting to the bottom of the fate of MH17, however. I think the world will know what happened, but it will go unpunished.
As opposed to the other possible scenario whereby the pro EU Ukrainian side wins out with all the implications,or even from Russia's point of view perceived implications,of that.In which the EU and NATO move in up to Russia's borders.Including the possibility of Ukraine taking back Crimea.Putin is seen as a loser by Russia's military who then make moves to depose him in the interests of national security and then get a blank cheque by Russia's new leadership to do the job properly.
toppstuff said:
The fact that we are not seeing the Russian hordes pouring over the border tells us everything. I suspect this will all be over in a few months time. Crimea peninsula will stay Russian. Everything else will just calm down.
Agreed. Clearly all of the Ukrainian "Watch out, watch out, the Russians are coming!" was just hysterical bluster likely aimed at trying to draw the US/UK/EU into a more militaristic response.Russia has Crimea, that was their main objective. If Eastern Ukraine were to fall to Pro-Russian supporters as well then fine, they'll take that too but it was never the jewel in the crown or they would have done to Eastern Ukraine what they did to Crimea.
toppstuff said:
I am not sure what this means in terms of getting to the bottom of the fate of MH17, however. I think the world will know what happened, but it will go unpunished.
The rebels are clearly responsible for this I'd guess but should it ever come out they'll likely just proclaim it as 'collateral damage'.Frankly other than a fine, did the US ever get "punished" for Flight 655? All 290 on board, including 66 children and 16 crew, died that day too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
Sadly, in conflict zones, there will always be innocents who get slaughtered.
reuters said:
Ukraine rebel movement faces uncertain future
(Reuters) - The resignations were abrupt and unexpected, two quick-fire blows to a separatist movement already suffering reversals on the battle field of eastern Ukraine.
Alexander Borodai, the premier of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, and Igor Strelkov, his military commander, had together formed the rebels' leadership against Ukrainian troops since armed men first seized state buildings across eastern Ukraine in April.
Friends from Moscow and comrades in arms, they were viewed by the separatists and by Kiev as Russia’s men. Their successive departures in the past two weeks may mark a turning point in a conflict which has dragged ties between Russia and the West to their lowest since the Cold War.
Among separatist ranks, the news has fueled fears that other Russian fighters may abandon the insurgency.
Interviews with rebel fighters and recorded conversations of rebel leaders provided by Ukrainian security services reveal a separatist movement struggling for survival against larger and better-equipped Ukrainian forces.
Some rebels, speaking on condition of anonymity, see the command changes as an attempt by Moscow to distance itself from the conflict. The United States and European Union have accused Russia of training and arming the separatists and imposed economic sanctions on Moscow.
One rebel source said the new leadership was meant to bring about a "de-escalation" of the conflict - a term used by the West in demanding Russia turn off financial and military support to the rebels. The Kremlin denies such involvement.
Another rebel source said Borodai and Strelkov, whose real name is Igor Girkin, slipped into Russia last week under cover provided by armed separatists. Self-styled deputy prime minister Vladimir Antufeyev confirmed that Strelkov had left the region.
A recording of separatist leaders released by Ukraine's state security service suggested more Russian citizens fighting in Ukraine were looking to leave. A rebel fighter told Reuters the insurgency was in a critical phase.
"Everything is coming to a head," he said.
Much about the circumstances of Borodai and Strelkov’s departures is unknown, and it is difficult to tell yet whether they mark a change of tactics or a winding down of Russian support.
Rebel website Novorossiya reported 1,000 fighters, more than 100 armored vehicles and new weapons supplies had been promised in return for Strelkov’s resignation. It did not say which entity or individual had made this promise.
The rebel region's new prime minister Alexander Zakharchenko said in a video after Strelkov’s resignation that 1,200 fighters trained in Russia and more than 100 military vehicles were joining the fight. He later denied making the comments.
Any sign that Russia is increasing its support of the rebels would cast doubt on Moscow's sincerity in saying it seeks a negotiated settlement to a crisis triggered earlier this year by the ousting of Ukraine's pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovich.
SETBACK
Strelkov made his name defending the stronghold of Slaviansk, downing Ukrainian aircraft and leading tactical maneuvers. The loss of his experience is a setback for the separatists as the Ukrainian army gains ground along the border through which Kiev says Moscow has ferried weapons and fighters to rebels.
Zakharchenko said Strelkov was simply going on a month-long vacation.
A rebel named Yevgeniy who served with Strelkov in Slaviansk, said the resignations of Strelkov and Borodai, long-time friends who worked together briefly in business in Moscow, came at a difficult moment.
"In the context of these events it doesn't look very good. But there is no panic. These people have done a lot for us," he said by telephone. He said there were no plans to retreat or surrender. "I have no place to go."
Some in the rebel ranks suggest the leadership changes were an attempt to give a more local face to a conflict that had been led mostly by Russian nationals, fuelling discontent among Ukrainian fighters and strengthening Western assertions that Vladimir Putin was pulling the strings.
The United States and European Union introduced their latest round of sanctions against Moscow following the downing of a Malaysian airliner over rebel held territory in July. They say the aircraft was almost certainly brought down by pro-Russian rebels supplied with a Russian missile system.
The downing of the plane may prove to be the turning point in the conflict.
"I know the reaction of people who saw Putin at the moment when the information (about the Malaysian plane) was delivered to him. It was a reaction of absolute shock," rebel commander Alexander Khodakovsky, leader of the rebel Vostok Battalion, told Reuters last month.
Hours after the crash, Putin expressed his condolences but also suggested Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko bore responsibility for the fighting along the plane's flight path.
Changes in the rebel leadership come as Moscow appears to be dialing down its rhetoric.
Putin is due to meet with Ukraine’s Poroshenko on Aug. 26, along with the European Union and Kazakhstan and Belarus.
The Russian president's most recent speech in Crimea, the Ukrainian region annexed by Moscow, was conciliatory in tone. Unusually for a Putin set-piece speech – it was not broadcast live on state television and news bulletins only made brief mentions.
'A WAR TO WIN'
Those at the top of the insurgency said the reshuffle aimed to combine a political and military leader in one role - in Zakharchenko who replaced Borodai as premier last week.
"In every other democratic country in the world, the political head is always the commander in chief. That's what we have here," said Zakharchenko's right hand man Andrei Purgin, who originally conceived the Donetsk People's Republic as a social movement in 2005.
Zakharchenko, a blonde-haired and barrel-chested native of Donetsk region, made a name for himself leading rebels units against Ukrainian troops.
"We have to win a war and today there is no better candidate than Zakharchenko. This is a person who will mobilize the people of DNR for the front. And he is just as much prime minister as he is chief commanding officer," said Purgin.
Strelkov's replacement is a little known rebel officer, who hails from the neighboring region of Luhansk, named Vladimir Kononov who goes by the nom de guerre of Tsar.
'A MONTH LEFT'
Morale is still high in separatist ranks, said Purgin. Separatist websites claim tactical victories for the rebels including the take over of a border crossing point east of Donetsk at Marynivka and the attack on a military brigade from Lviv in western Ukraine.
But Russian military analysts say Ukrainians, with their greater firepower and higher numbers, have the advantage. A recording released by Ukraine's security services, purportedly of a Russian fighter speaking with an officer from Moscow's Federal Security Services (FSB), pointed to rifts between fighters from Russia and local rebels and said DNR had little time left.
The fighter, "Trifon", who fought alongside Strelkov in Slaviansk uses Russian curses to condemn local rebels for doing "nothing at all" and says he needs a way out of the region to return to Russia.
"I think DNR has a month minimum," he says in the recording which Reuters was unable to verify independently.
Many locals still pledge allegiance to the separatist project but even among the few who have stayed behind in the stronghold of Donetsk, some are making their frustrations with the separatists known.
After the first shelling in the center of the city last week, a middle aged man accused the rebels of launching the attack that killed at least one person in the center of the city. In return, rebels pulled him to the ground demanding he ask for forgiveness on his knees.
Another woman across the street pointed to the separatists saying: "They're the ones who did this, it's members of the DNR themselves."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/20/us-ukrai...(Reuters) - The resignations were abrupt and unexpected, two quick-fire blows to a separatist movement already suffering reversals on the battle field of eastern Ukraine.
Alexander Borodai, the premier of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, and Igor Strelkov, his military commander, had together formed the rebels' leadership against Ukrainian troops since armed men first seized state buildings across eastern Ukraine in April.
Friends from Moscow and comrades in arms, they were viewed by the separatists and by Kiev as Russia’s men. Their successive departures in the past two weeks may mark a turning point in a conflict which has dragged ties between Russia and the West to their lowest since the Cold War.
Among separatist ranks, the news has fueled fears that other Russian fighters may abandon the insurgency.
Interviews with rebel fighters and recorded conversations of rebel leaders provided by Ukrainian security services reveal a separatist movement struggling for survival against larger and better-equipped Ukrainian forces.
Some rebels, speaking on condition of anonymity, see the command changes as an attempt by Moscow to distance itself from the conflict. The United States and European Union have accused Russia of training and arming the separatists and imposed economic sanctions on Moscow.
One rebel source said the new leadership was meant to bring about a "de-escalation" of the conflict - a term used by the West in demanding Russia turn off financial and military support to the rebels. The Kremlin denies such involvement.
Another rebel source said Borodai and Strelkov, whose real name is Igor Girkin, slipped into Russia last week under cover provided by armed separatists. Self-styled deputy prime minister Vladimir Antufeyev confirmed that Strelkov had left the region.
A recording of separatist leaders released by Ukraine's state security service suggested more Russian citizens fighting in Ukraine were looking to leave. A rebel fighter told Reuters the insurgency was in a critical phase.
"Everything is coming to a head," he said.
Much about the circumstances of Borodai and Strelkov’s departures is unknown, and it is difficult to tell yet whether they mark a change of tactics or a winding down of Russian support.
Rebel website Novorossiya reported 1,000 fighters, more than 100 armored vehicles and new weapons supplies had been promised in return for Strelkov’s resignation. It did not say which entity or individual had made this promise.
The rebel region's new prime minister Alexander Zakharchenko said in a video after Strelkov’s resignation that 1,200 fighters trained in Russia and more than 100 military vehicles were joining the fight. He later denied making the comments.
Any sign that Russia is increasing its support of the rebels would cast doubt on Moscow's sincerity in saying it seeks a negotiated settlement to a crisis triggered earlier this year by the ousting of Ukraine's pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovich.
SETBACK
Strelkov made his name defending the stronghold of Slaviansk, downing Ukrainian aircraft and leading tactical maneuvers. The loss of his experience is a setback for the separatists as the Ukrainian army gains ground along the border through which Kiev says Moscow has ferried weapons and fighters to rebels.
Zakharchenko said Strelkov was simply going on a month-long vacation.
A rebel named Yevgeniy who served with Strelkov in Slaviansk, said the resignations of Strelkov and Borodai, long-time friends who worked together briefly in business in Moscow, came at a difficult moment.
"In the context of these events it doesn't look very good. But there is no panic. These people have done a lot for us," he said by telephone. He said there were no plans to retreat or surrender. "I have no place to go."
Some in the rebel ranks suggest the leadership changes were an attempt to give a more local face to a conflict that had been led mostly by Russian nationals, fuelling discontent among Ukrainian fighters and strengthening Western assertions that Vladimir Putin was pulling the strings.
The United States and European Union introduced their latest round of sanctions against Moscow following the downing of a Malaysian airliner over rebel held territory in July. They say the aircraft was almost certainly brought down by pro-Russian rebels supplied with a Russian missile system.
The downing of the plane may prove to be the turning point in the conflict.
"I know the reaction of people who saw Putin at the moment when the information (about the Malaysian plane) was delivered to him. It was a reaction of absolute shock," rebel commander Alexander Khodakovsky, leader of the rebel Vostok Battalion, told Reuters last month.
Hours after the crash, Putin expressed his condolences but also suggested Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko bore responsibility for the fighting along the plane's flight path.
Changes in the rebel leadership come as Moscow appears to be dialing down its rhetoric.
Putin is due to meet with Ukraine’s Poroshenko on Aug. 26, along with the European Union and Kazakhstan and Belarus.
The Russian president's most recent speech in Crimea, the Ukrainian region annexed by Moscow, was conciliatory in tone. Unusually for a Putin set-piece speech – it was not broadcast live on state television and news bulletins only made brief mentions.
'A WAR TO WIN'
Those at the top of the insurgency said the reshuffle aimed to combine a political and military leader in one role - in Zakharchenko who replaced Borodai as premier last week.
"In every other democratic country in the world, the political head is always the commander in chief. That's what we have here," said Zakharchenko's right hand man Andrei Purgin, who originally conceived the Donetsk People's Republic as a social movement in 2005.
Zakharchenko, a blonde-haired and barrel-chested native of Donetsk region, made a name for himself leading rebels units against Ukrainian troops.
"We have to win a war and today there is no better candidate than Zakharchenko. This is a person who will mobilize the people of DNR for the front. And he is just as much prime minister as he is chief commanding officer," said Purgin.
Strelkov's replacement is a little known rebel officer, who hails from the neighboring region of Luhansk, named Vladimir Kononov who goes by the nom de guerre of Tsar.
'A MONTH LEFT'
Morale is still high in separatist ranks, said Purgin. Separatist websites claim tactical victories for the rebels including the take over of a border crossing point east of Donetsk at Marynivka and the attack on a military brigade from Lviv in western Ukraine.
But Russian military analysts say Ukrainians, with their greater firepower and higher numbers, have the advantage. A recording released by Ukraine's security services, purportedly of a Russian fighter speaking with an officer from Moscow's Federal Security Services (FSB), pointed to rifts between fighters from Russia and local rebels and said DNR had little time left.
The fighter, "Trifon", who fought alongside Strelkov in Slaviansk uses Russian curses to condemn local rebels for doing "nothing at all" and says he needs a way out of the region to return to Russia.
"I think DNR has a month minimum," he says in the recording which Reuters was unable to verify independently.
Many locals still pledge allegiance to the separatist project but even among the few who have stayed behind in the stronghold of Donetsk, some are making their frustrations with the separatists known.
After the first shelling in the center of the city last week, a middle aged man accused the rebels of launching the attack that killed at least one person in the center of the city. In return, rebels pulled him to the ground demanding he ask for forgiveness on his knees.
Another woman across the street pointed to the separatists saying: "They're the ones who did this, it's members of the DNR themselves."
KareemK said:
Russia has Crimea, that was their main objective. If Eastern Ukraine were to fall to Pro-Russian supporters as well then fine, they'll take that too but it was never the jewel in the crown or they would have done to Eastern Ukraine what they did to Crimea.
From the Ukraine Nationalists point of view fighting for Eastern Ukraine will probably roll over into also seeing the retaking of Crimea as an essential part of that.I'd be more pessimistic at the moment that what we're seeing,at least from the Russian military point of view, is Putin having effectively ( so far )lost ground on balance with knock on implications regarding the whole Crimea and Eastern Ukraine mission.Which realistically have to be seen as dependent on each other for their success.If it's that scenario then it's likely that the real flash point hasn't even started yet based on the questions.
1) will the Ukrainian nationalist forces want to stop assuming they are eventually successful in putting down the ethnic Russian and Russian backed insurgency in Eastern Ukraine.
2)Will NATO then move into the the whole of Ukraine including possibly Crimea.
3)Will the Russian military leadership be prepared to allow even those questions to remain outstanding without calling Putin a loser then having him deposed and then meeting the potential,let alone any actual,Ukrianian/NATO threat,as they see it,head on.Id guess that while Russia sees Crimea as strategically important to it in that regard then there's no way that Eastern Ukraine at least can logically be seperated from that.It is therefore my guess that what happens in the medium term is on a knife edge in that regard depending on what is happening within the Russian government concerning the issue of NATO expansion,which is what this is really all about,and how Russia intends to deal with it.Which ominously seems to going on in silence behind closed doors on an ever increasing basis.Rather than NATO and Russia talking to each other openly about reaching an agreement that's acceptable to both concerning the issue.
Edited by XJ Flyer on Wednesday 20th August 17:36
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