The Official Winter Snow Thread 2014/2015
Discussion
s p a c e m a n said:
And therein lies the point of the thread. We're probably not going to be able to go outside and build a snowman in a few foot of snow so I want to get excited by the possibility of it, otherwise Christmas is just a month of having to put up with a bunch of people that I want to stab in the head. I need something to look forward to, something to focus on, something to keep me out of jail 
Is the Great escape on/ i always enjoy that.
Thankyou4calling said:
Is the Great escape on/ i always enjoy that.
Now that would be great, haven't watched The Great Escape for years...can't wait now, put the TV on for the first time since Oct 2013 [really!], the log burner cranked up to mark.9, Steve McQueen in the slammer, Donald Pleasence forging away to his hearts content...just one more Mince Pie and a few feet of snow outside 
It's hard to believe the film was released in 1963...
seems nobody is really sure The 6am charts have improved matters again for the cold and snow lovers.
Christmas Day is looking unlikely to be white for almost all of the UK, but probably cool. However, the GFS chart is pointing out Snowmeggedon possibilities are back for the 27th.
Still outside reliable timeframes and the fact the models are struggling to keep consistent is a positive as it indicates something is changing and also they typically expect Atlantic weather, so struggle more to compute other types.
All to play for again, but more circumspect than before. If you have a stock of Tena, I'd suggest to HOLD rather than SELL.
Christmas Day is looking unlikely to be white for almost all of the UK, but probably cool. However, the GFS chart is pointing out Snowmeggedon possibilities are back for the 27th.
Still outside reliable timeframes and the fact the models are struggling to keep consistent is a positive as it indicates something is changing and also they typically expect Atlantic weather, so struggle more to compute other types.
All to play for again, but more circumspect than before. If you have a stock of Tena, I'd suggest to HOLD rather than SELL.
We live in a Maritime climate, most of our weather is the Atlantic being scooped up and dumped on us, anything else is an exception, the idea that Christmas will involve snow is basically from Charles Dickens, maybe it happened when he wrote A Christmas Carol, it does happen occasionally but is very much the exception.
Learn to love Drizzle and wind I say !
Learn to love Drizzle and wind I say !
Exactly. I live in North Hampshire and have lived pretty much my whole live South of the M4 (apart from a few years in the Highlands). Winter never really gets going down here until the middle of January at the earliest. We were spoiled in 2009 and 2010, but they are very much the exception, rather than the rule.
However, it never stops me from hunting for cold and snow in the charts and getting super excited when I start seeing stuff on the long range synoptics!!!
However, it never stops me from hunting for cold and snow in the charts and getting super excited when I start seeing stuff on the long range synoptics!!!
It does seem weird that we are actively wishing for cold, when really cold weather is actively avoided by most people, I wonder why it is we crave cold and snow ?
To avoid it being mild, wet and windy ?
Childhood memories of it being fun ?
It always smells nice when its cold ?
Snow looks pretty (for a short time) and covers stuff up we dont want to look at.
A distraction, a difference to the norm ?
We like a bit of mild adversity ?
Excuse to drink booze and crank the heat up ?
Makes us feel all cosy when in the house when all nice and warm ?
To avoid it being mild, wet and windy ?
Childhood memories of it being fun ?
It always smells nice when its cold ?
Snow looks pretty (for a short time) and covers stuff up we dont want to look at.
A distraction, a difference to the norm ?
We like a bit of mild adversity ?
Excuse to drink booze and crank the heat up ?
Makes us feel all cosy when in the house when all nice and warm ?
Another quote from Ian Fergusson, MO
"An awful lot of focus here on how pronounced any cold might be.... but arguably, one of the most eye-catching forecast issues amongst ensembles is one of possible explosive cyclogenesis (vast majority of EC-EPS members from 00z suite producing lows from Boxing Day onwards, some very deep indeed, and all considered likely to entrain sub-zero theta-w irrespective of track). So, for us it's a story of potentially bad weather across a fair scope of outcomes (gales/severe gales/heavy rain/snow) rather than a myopic focus solely on snow. Whilst I appreciate some people merely seek the latter to the exclusion of all else, there is a resultant risk of not seeing the woods for the trees in terms of the potential (still highly uncertain) evolutions and how these might provide a very interesting / volatile period meteorologically, irrespective of how cold it proves."
I now think this is pointing to the low pressure systems coming from the N/NW and out of the cold and towards the warmth which is never far away from the UK. Obviously an unfamiliar direction and with the cyclogenesis we're familiar with from Atlantic patterns we know how dangerous it can be. Mix that in with cold, there could be fun. If it's too warm then it'll be wet.
Dangerous for the East Coast.
"An awful lot of focus here on how pronounced any cold might be.... but arguably, one of the most eye-catching forecast issues amongst ensembles is one of possible explosive cyclogenesis (vast majority of EC-EPS members from 00z suite producing lows from Boxing Day onwards, some very deep indeed, and all considered likely to entrain sub-zero theta-w irrespective of track). So, for us it's a story of potentially bad weather across a fair scope of outcomes (gales/severe gales/heavy rain/snow) rather than a myopic focus solely on snow. Whilst I appreciate some people merely seek the latter to the exclusion of all else, there is a resultant risk of not seeing the woods for the trees in terms of the potential (still highly uncertain) evolutions and how these might provide a very interesting / volatile period meteorologically, irrespective of how cold it proves."
I now think this is pointing to the low pressure systems coming from the N/NW and out of the cold and towards the warmth which is never far away from the UK. Obviously an unfamiliar direction and with the cyclogenesis we're familiar with from Atlantic patterns we know how dangerous it can be. Mix that in with cold, there could be fun. If it's too warm then it'll be wet.
Dangerous for the East Coast.
Edited by Puggit on Friday 19th December 12:55
Puggit said:
Another quote from Ian Fergusson, MO
"An awful lot of focus here on how pronounced any cold might be.... but arguably, one of the most eye-catching forecast issues amongst ensembles is one of possible explosive cyclogenesis (vast majority of EC-EPS members from 00z suite producing lows from Boxing Day onwards, some very deep indeed, and all considered likely to entrain sub-zero theta-w irrespective of track). So, for us it's a story of potentially bad weather across a fair scope of outcomes (gales/severe gales/heavy rain/snow) rather than a myopic focus solely on snow. Whilst I appreciate some people merely seek the latter to the exclusion of all else, there is a resultant risk of not seeing the woods for the trees in terms of the potential (still highly uncertain) evolutions and how these might provide a very interesting / volatile period meteorologically, irrespective of how cold it proves."
I now think this is pointing to the low pressure systems coming from the N/NW and out of the cold and towards the warmth which is never far away from the UK. Obviously an unfamiliar direction and with the cyclogenesis we're familiar with from Atlantic patterns we know how dangerous it can be. Mix that in with cold, there could be fun. If it's too warm then it'll be wet.
Dangerous for the East Coast.
That is truly pathetic."An awful lot of focus here on how pronounced any cold might be.... but arguably, one of the most eye-catching forecast issues amongst ensembles is one of possible explosive cyclogenesis (vast majority of EC-EPS members from 00z suite producing lows from Boxing Day onwards, some very deep indeed, and all considered likely to entrain sub-zero theta-w irrespective of track). So, for us it's a story of potentially bad weather across a fair scope of outcomes (gales/severe gales/heavy rain/snow) rather than a myopic focus solely on snow. Whilst I appreciate some people merely seek the latter to the exclusion of all else, there is a resultant risk of not seeing the woods for the trees in terms of the potential (still highly uncertain) evolutions and how these might provide a very interesting / volatile period meteorologically, irrespective of how cold it proves."
I now think this is pointing to the low pressure systems coming from the N/NW and out of the cold and towards the warmth which is never far away from the UK. Obviously an unfamiliar direction and with the cyclogenesis we're familiar with from Atlantic patterns we know how dangerous it can be. Mix that in with cold, there could be fun. If it's too warm then it'll be wet.
Dangerous for the East Coast.
Edited by Puggit on Friday 19th December 12:55
I really don't know why we bother with weather forecasts at all.
Does anybody, other than perhaps fishermen really listen to them and seriously change anything based on what they say.
In winter it's chilly, wear a coat.
it rains, carry an umbrella.
In summer it gets warm, don't wear a coat.
Honestly the fuss and bother in what is an incredibly benign climate here is amazing.
Still, keeps a lot in jobs and gives us something pointless to talk about.
Go on, admit it - weather forecasts are slightly more important than that...
Your average lemming working 9-5 in an office might not pay attention - and then blames someone else when the trains don't run or the roads are gridlocked - but the weather forecast is vital to all sorts of businesses and organisations. The fact that the weather in the UK can turn in a matter of minutes is relatively unique to our position in the world - and that's why it is important and discussed.
The fact that deepening low pressures could be coming in from the North Sea is extremely rare, and to low lying parts of the East Coast, and the crumbling coastline, is very important.
Your average lemming working 9-5 in an office might not pay attention - and then blames someone else when the trains don't run or the roads are gridlocked - but the weather forecast is vital to all sorts of businesses and organisations. The fact that the weather in the UK can turn in a matter of minutes is relatively unique to our position in the world - and that's why it is important and discussed.
The fact that deepening low pressures could be coming in from the North Sea is extremely rare, and to low lying parts of the East Coast, and the crumbling coastline, is very important.
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