Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 6

[PRTVR]

sherbertdip said:

Slartifartfast said:

simoid said:

Slartifartfast said:

In the Health Service we have data bases that are interrogateable by postcode, and can show that more people in postcode aa1 get disease B than postcode aa2. Are HMRC and other databases not similarly useful?

I think this would be akin to storing data on everywhere the person has been, as well as where they live.

The IR know the postcode of all those who pay tax, and how much each pays, so working out how much a particular area/ region generates would be straightforward, Shirley?

HMRC DO NOT know post codes of tax payers. If you are PAYE then they only know the place from which you are paid, e.g. they know me as staff number/ NI number xxxxxxxxxx of Liverpool. I've never been to Liverpool in my life. If i contact them all correspondence is to my office.

Are you sure ? They have sent me requests for money to my home address, so they must know where I live.

[Axionknight]

toppstuff said:

That's a stunningly short sighted view.

A low oil price is very, very bad for the Scottish economy.

A substantial fall in other asset prices would damage finance - Scotland's other major economic sector. Banks with substantial Scottish exposure would need propping up.

Put the two together and calamity beckons.

Oh lawd, it's a good job that an iScotland wasn't exposed to such risks then, wasn't it? As it would never have been as adapt as the UK as a whole with weathering such issues.

If wages stagnate, prices likely won't climb any further - skilled/experienced people can always move around to follow the work if needs be, but that doesn't suit everybody no matter what their profession, and if it they do come down then who will suffer, those who have been sensible with their expectations of ownership and borrowing, or those debted to the hilt?

You can call it short sighted all you like, but the property prices can't outstrip wage growth forever - especially when the rates start going back up and if that is what the local and wider economy are based on then things could get interesting indeed.

Of course if we'd have voted Yes the Salmond fairies would have made everything sweetness and light.

[gofasterrosssco]

I think most people are getting a bit excitable about the recent oil price drop, and the supposed decimation this will have on the NS industry and Scotland. Assisted by inevitable "collapse" headlines from various media outlets..

This is most likely the same cyclic pattern that the industry has seen over all the years the NS has been active. Its constantly either booming or going bust.. Same thing happened in 2009 when the oil price was nearer $40. It quickly recovered to double this in a matter of months as global demand perked up a bit.

So there's no reason to say the same may not happen again. To an extent, some form of cost control is a good thing, as the industry was quickly pricing itself out of competitiveness anyway, given cost of extraction and maintenance..

The more serious issue may be if demand, and therefore price doesn't pick up in the next couple of years, as its over this timescale that we would see real issue in the feasiblity of large parts of the NS..

No doubt the Nats will perk back up again once the sector is on the up again..

[HenryJM]

Well the difference with oil is new differences in how it can be sourced, particularly in the US. Arguably those new means are boosting supply making it much cheaper to produce so arguably a real and long term item as opposed to what has happened previously.

So it doesn't look like the temporary price drop it was previously, but time will tell.

[toppstuff]

HenryJM said:

Well the difference with oil is new differences in how it can be sourced, particularly in the US. Arguably those new means are boosting supply making it much cheaper to produce so arguably a real and long term item as opposed to what has happened previously.

So it doesn't look like the temporary price drop it was previously, but time will tell.

Many seem to think oil prices will stay low for at least the next 12 months. Maybe more.

[HD Adam]

toppstuff said:

Many seem to think oil prices will stay low for at least the next 12 months. Maybe more.

Depends how quick Putin caves in and OPEC slows production.

[HenryJM]

HD Adam said:

Depends how quick Putin caves in and OPEC slows production.

There are only 12 states in OPEC these days. Much as Putin may be an issue the reality is that the USA now produces a lot of their own oil and that goes in addition to others that is not OPEC. The simple reality is that supply now exceeds demand because of the new ways of producing it.

[ianrb]

gofasterrosssco said:

I think most people are getting a bit excitable about the recent oil price drop, and the supposed decimation this will have on the NS industry and Scotland. Assisted by inevitable "collapse" headlines from various media outlets..

This is most likely the same cyclic pattern that the industry has seen over all the years the NS has been active. Its constantly either booming or going bust.. Same thing happened in 2009 when the oil price was nearer $40. It quickly recovered to double this in a matter of months as global demand perked up a bit.

So there's no reason to say the same may not happen again. To an extent, some form of cost control is a good thing, as the industry was quickly pricing itself out of competitiveness anyway, given cost of extraction and maintenance..

The more serious issue may be if demand, and therefore price doesn't pick up in the next couple of years, as its over this timescale that we would see real issue in the feasiblity of large parts of the NS..

No doubt the Nats will perk back up again once the sector is on the up again..

But this price shift has different causes, it's far more that the Saudis are pumping more oil and less of a case of slowdown in demand.

I don't know why the Saudis have decided to produce so much oil, it may be to stick one to Iran, one of their long term adversaries, or it may be to choke off new supplies of oil and gas, such as from the USA. Until the Saudi's motivation becomes clear it's difficult to know how long we'll have low oil prices for.

[toppstuff]

I don't the US is going to stop shale oil production even if the oil price stays low.

For the US, this isn't just about the economics. It is about energy security and reducing/ removing the dependence on the Middle East and all the crap that goes with that region. Having to produce shale oil at an uneconomic level is still much cheaper than paying for an occupying invasion of an Arab state.

[Strocky]

The wily old fox is smacking his lips in anticipation of being in the middle of the henhouse

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/19/sa...

[Rollin]

More Labour voters going to UKIP then.

[Sheets Tabuer]

Rollin said:

More Labour voters going to UKIP then.

He's only doing it because he knows the st storm it will cause, he'll do anything to alienate the English and further the SNP cause.

If only England had a politician like that.

[simoid]

Wonder what his conditions would be. Shirley not independence related...

[Rollin]

Remember when Salmond was huffing and puffing about the English keeping their noses out of Scottish affairs?

[BlackLabel]

simoid said:

Wonder what his conditions would be. Shirley not independence related...

No Trident renewal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-pol...

No way they will get that though. They will probably end up settling with more tax raising powers and more borrowing powers.

[McWigglebum4th]

BlackLabel said:

No Trident renewal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-pol...

No way they will get that though. They will probably end up settling with more tax raising powers and more borrowing powers.

I am sure the welsh would be fking delighted to host trident

I think westminster should pull all military spending out of scotland just to keep the nats happy

[Rollin]

A spokesman for Mr Swinney said: “Oil is a bonus, not the basis of Scotland’s economy"

[HenryJM]

Rollin said:

A spokesman for Mr Swinney said: “Oil is a bonus, not the basis of Scotland’s economy"

Well actually since it's magic where, in SNP logic, you could save it and spend it at the same time it makes sense to being able to do both without having to earn it in the first place.

[Welshbeef]

Rollin said:

A spokesman for Mr Swinney said: “Oil is a bonus, not the basis of Scotland’s economy"

fk me - It does make you wonder if they actually believe that or not? Or that the sound bite works well for the plebs.



For any plebs here the UK decided rather than to increases taxes in the 1970's instead to use oil tax revenue as a component part of the tax receipts. They never changed that policy from then to date.
So the only time it is a "Bonus" is when the oil tax receipts are above the budget forecast be that due to price or volume. If its lower then its a burden the black gold is a burden no matter what the SNP say.

[Jader1973]

Strocky said:

The wily old fox is smacking his lips in anticipation of being in the middle of the henhouse

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/19/sa...

I see he has also said England should have a people's revolt and do away with the House of Lords.

Presumably that revolt including the break up of the union would be a bonus "Oh look, England kicked us out."

He really is an odious .