Anyone else got a real bad feeling about the ISIL bombings?

Anyone else got a real bad feeling about the ISIL bombings?

Author
Discussion

lord trumpton

Original Poster:

7,320 posts

125 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
Its hard to quantify or validate but I have an unnerving feeling that we are on the edge of a prolonged conflict that will be the death of many.

I know the government want us to believe that they will go drop a few bombs, take out some key targets and then ISIL will stop their terrorist acts and pipe down.
I fear it will unite rival Islamic groups and awaken many across far more places than Iraq and Syria. I fear we are on the precipice of a battle we can never truly win. A phase of fighting that will span a generation.


anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
lord trumpton said:
Its hard to quantify or validate but I have an unnerving feeling that we are on the edge of a prolonged conflict that will be the death of many.

I know the government want us to believe that they will go drop a few bombs, take out some key targets and then ISIL will stop their terrorist acts and pipe down.
I fear it will unite rival Islamic groups and awaken many across far more places than Iraq and Syria. I fear we are on the precipice of a battle we can never truly win. A phase of fighting that will span a generation.
I fear that you may be right. But is there a real alternative? They can't be left to carry on as they wish and I can't imagine any of these extremist groups sitting down to negotiate an agreement.

Mr GrimNasty

8,172 posts

169 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
Undoubtedly the collateral damage will start mounting up uncomfortably. We were too slow off the mark, should have started bombing as soon as they started moving out of Syria.

greygoose

8,224 posts

194 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
I think it will be a long drawn out affair, will there ever be peace in the region and can it be contained rather than spreading further? No easy answers sadly and lots of people will die whether we get involved or not.

Octoposse

2,152 posts

184 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
lord trumpton said:
I know the government want us to believe that they will go drop a few bombs, take out some key targets and then ISIL will stop their terrorist acts and pipe down.
I recall Robin 'Ethical Foreign Policy' Cook getting increasingly tetchy with a BBC interviewer when questioned over just that belief about Serbia . . .

Having said that, no one thinks that about IS - which leaves the question open as to what exactly the plan is? A few British bombs aren't going to make any difference whatsoever, and the downside is clear.



Mermaid

21,492 posts

170 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
Mr GrimNasty said:
Undoubtedly the collateral damage will start mounting up uncomfortably. We were too slow off the mark, should have started bombing as soon as they started moving out of Syria.
Or helped Assad at an early stage to put down the Saudi sponsored Sunni IS uprising - he did warn about it.

Keep these regional Dictators on your side.

photosnob

1,339 posts

117 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
The simple solution would be to bring in a couple of dictators who behave like Saddam and Assad. Hey you could even keep Assad and just let him do what he needs to do.

It won't be pretty - it won't be nice and it won't happen. But it would work.

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
Mermaid said:
Mr GrimNasty said:
Undoubtedly the collateral damage will start mounting up uncomfortably. We were too slow off the mark, should have started bombing as soon as they started moving out of Syria.
Or helped Assad at an early stage to put down the Saudi sponsored Sunni IS uprising - he did warn about it.

Keep these regional Dictators on your side.
Quite. Regrettably the politicians are not up to the job. Again.

I am very unconvinced about this bombing business. As Bomber Harris demonstrated very effectively in WWII carpet bombing is a highly inefficient and ineffective way to wage war. Despite the years of massive bombing of Germany industrial output remained remarkably high. I am very doubtful that bombing can materially effect such a covert, hidden, invisible and unidentifiable terrrorist organisation.

Ground troops are needed and I cannot see that any of the supposed Arab countries supporting this tack against IS actually have the capacity or will to take effective ground action. Without that this the bombing raids will kill a great any innocent victims without in any way challenging the hidden terrorists. Seems a daft idea to me.

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
I sincerely hope that in the background we are making efforts to come to an accommodation with Assad. IMO we need to say to him "We fight together until IS is beaten, and then you allow a free election, retire to Qatar and we pretend the crimes against humanity didn't happen". If he agrees, that gets Russia and Iran on-side too, and that will probably be enough to fix it.

It's terrible to even contemplate not prosecuting him for the crimes he perpetrated, but compared to the alternative I think it's the only option.

Mr GrimNasty

8,172 posts

169 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
Our government was too obsessed with 'Arab Springs' and the situation in Syria too complicated to interfere without risking helping or killing the wrong people, plus the Russians wouldn't have liked it. The best solution was just to let Assad keep the nutters occupied and trimmed down in numbers by confining them to Syrian borders. Too late now.

gpo746

3,397 posts

129 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
We need to start shoring up our own country.
said it before and been slagged off on here - don't give a toss. If we have to get tough and stop having the rip taken out of us then its worth it.

Petrus1983

8,516 posts

161 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
Firstly I'm not against the bombings, the ISIL group is a dangerous organisation which is creating havoc in the area. My only feeling would be whether this would be handled by a covert (as in not publicized) UK/US special forces teams taking out their 'key players' over the course of 4-6 months more effectively. I feel that the majority of ISIL are brainwashed 'nothings'. I'd atleast have started at that as bombings will always have significant collateral damage.

RedTrident

8,290 posts

234 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
Mermaid said:
Mr GrimNasty said:
Undoubtedly the collateral damage will start mounting up uncomfortably. We were too slow off the mark, should have started bombing as soon as they started moving out of Syria.
Or helped Assad at an early stage to put down the Saudi sponsored Sunni IS uprising - he did warn about it.

Keep these regional Dictators on your side.
I don't often agree with you but your point is unavoidable. Bizarre to think that we are now bombing the very people that we wanted to arm and provide ariel support for only a few months ago.


CrutyRammers

13,735 posts

197 months

Sunday 28th September 2014
quotequote all
A bad feeling? Why? There's absolutely no reason to assume it will end up just like it has every other time.

Tunku

7,703 posts

227 months

Monday 29th September 2014
quotequote all
lord trumpton said:
Its hard to quantify or validate but I have an unnerving feeling that we are on the edge of a prolonged conflict that will be the death of many.

I know the government want us to believe that they will go drop a few bombs, take out some key targets and then ISIL will stop their terrorist acts and pipe down.
I fear it will unite rival Islamic groups and awaken many across far more places than Iraq and Syria. I fear we are on the precipice of a battle we can never truly win. A phase of fighting that will span a generation.

Murph7355

37,646 posts

255 months

Monday 29th September 2014
quotequote all
Tunku said:
White feather pic...
Dumb thing to post.

Can you name anything good that has come of our intervention in that region in the past?

How many British servicemen have been killed? And is that region any the better for those lives?

We need to stay the hell out. Let the local powers sort the problem - they have the arms - and support them with intel', tactical assistance and, maybe, more covert assistance. If they need the help.

Meanwhile, address the more extreme elements of the nut-job fraternity in this country and make sensible moves to protect people here.

Playing the billy big bks and dropping bombs does not work. Categorically it doesn't (even if you can find a target, which would seem tricky). It has absolutely fq all to do with bravery and everything to do with common sense and learning from past (recent!) mistakes.

steveatesh

4,893 posts

163 months

Monday 29th September 2014
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
Dumb thing to post.

Can you name anything good that has come of our intervention in that region in the past?

How many British servicemen have been killed? And is that region any the better for those lives?

We need to stay the hell out. Let the local powers sort the problem - they have the arms - and support them with intel', tactical assistance and, maybe, more covert assistance. If they need the help.

Meanwhile, address the more extreme elements of the nut-job fraternity in this country and make sensible moves to protect people here.

Playing the billy big bks and dropping bombs does not work. Categorically it doesn't (even if you can find a target, which would seem tricky). It has absolutely fq all to do with bravery and everything to do with common sense and learning from past (recent!) mistakes.
I'll go plus 1 on this.
However, I'm not sure that our politicians do learn from recent mistakes? We seem to have adopted the worst position - no all out war to stop and destroy IS (if stopping an ideology is even possible) and no sitting back and watching. Instead the air campaign risks lives and building up an even greater number of hostile feelings across the world.

grumbledoak

31,499 posts

232 months

Monday 29th September 2014
quotequote all
REALIST123 said:
They can't be left to carry on as they wish and I can't imagine any of these extremist groups sitting down to negotiate an agreement.
I would question that assumption. Realistically, what are they going to do with their new Islamic State? The new state would have less friends than Israel! So what if we have to redraw the map?

Vanin

1,010 posts

165 months

Monday 29th September 2014
quotequote all
Agree with his Lordship and Murph on this.

There was a time when the enemy was clearly identifiable and had different uniforms and big black crosses to aim at on their planes and vehicles.

Now the enemy could be anyone, men women and children and not just people from the Far East.

So combine this with highly intelligent but misguided souls who are quite prepared to commit vile murders and suicide for their cause and we have a situation that is impossible to cure by bombing.

They can use the Media to influence their cause. For instance, even if the coalition aircraft hit the intended targets I would not be surprised if IS would not deliberately plant a bomb in the middle of a completely innocent group of men, women and children and send the graphic pictures around the World, blood, guts, "Look what the infidels have done to our women and children by random bombing"

We have only just come out of Afghanistan after trying to win hearts and minds, education was meant to be the answer but just look at the history of the place. Do we never learn.

It is about time that proper sanctions with real teeth appeared on the scene, combined with fierce control on arms sales. Starve IS of arms and oil.
Somehow have to deal with politicians who preach peace on one hand and allow these sales to happen with the other.

Confucius was asked about what would happen in the future

"My Child, if you want to know the future, first you must examine the past"











AA999

5,180 posts

216 months

Monday 29th September 2014
quotequote all
The simple solution to keep British citizens safe would have been to have an effective British border control.

Then the only step would have been to secure/stabalise the oil market.


Like has been said a few times on various discussions, Suadi Arabia for example conduct beheadings on a regular basis in accordance with their religious laws. Many more than what ISIS/ISIL/IS have done to date.
The only difference is that the media have not brought the reality of this in to our living rooms via their news broadcasts.


Effective border control with the powers of sending illegal persons back to the port/shore from which they left should be a basic right of each nation's sovereignty.