Labour stretches lead over Tories

[gpo746]

According to this one:

http://preview.msn.com/en-gb/news/topstories/labou...

"According to ComRes, in the 40 crucial constituencies, Mr Miliband's party enjoys the backing of 41% of voters (up five points since a similar poll in June), ahead of the Tories on 30% (down one), Ukip unchanged on 17% and Liberal Democrats on 6% (down one)."

I just mean how ? How can they supposedly jump 5 points in 3 months.
I genuinely just don't get it ?

Yes yes I know polls can be fickle and in reality "I can get it" as I understand people change. I just DON'T see what they have done that's positive or the tories unduly negative to cause this.
Am I missing something that they did ? If so what.

[Bill]

Depends when the poll was done. The figures just released say the economy isn't doing as well as hoped, a married Tory has just been caught sending pictures of his cock to a random on the Internet and Labour have just had a conference where they promised the moon on a stick.

[Gargamel]

Whilst I totally fail to understand why anyone would vote for Miliband and co. I think the Conservatives are failing to communicate with any impact on several key areas.

1. Economy, nobody actually feels better off. Pay increases this year were again at or below inflation. Personal Tax remains high, and importantly - people expect it to remain high / higher
2. No good news on the defeceit. Pain has been taken, but where is the reduction ?
3. Growth, has been good, inflation is OK, Jobs are good - but no real feel good factor
4. Houseprices, real inflation, personal debt, high taxes, these are all a problem for the conservatives.

Europe, - no one understands the Conservative strategy on Europe, everyone remembers that Cameron promised a Referendum last time round and used some lawyers drivel to weasal out of a proper vote on Lisbon last time out.

Trust, I am afraid Cameron is not trusted by the people, this continual attack by the Labour party of "out of touch" Cameron I am afraid has some truth to it, he is not seen as someone putting people first. He is still seen as representing the people who already have wealth.


I still don't understand why the Conservative aren't more aggresive or progressive in some areas, they really have a communication problem.

The big vote winners for the Conservatives are

1. In out Referedum on Europe
2. English Parliament / resolution of West Lothian Questions
3. Taxation, Take inheritence tax to £2m, Higher rate to 40% and move higher rate threshold to £50,000
4. Immigration, pledge to introduce a CLEAR points system for non eu migration
5. Housing Benefit, propose to reduce Housing Benefits by 1% a year each year of Parliament - this will gradually stabilise the market for rental.

[BlackLabel]

Ashcroft's latest polling suggests the same.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/28/la...

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/told-tories-b...

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/ashcroft-nati...

I believe Labour only need a lead of 2 or 3 points for a majority whereas the Tories need a 7 or 8 point lead.

[Rovinghawk]

Gargamel said:

I still don't understand why the Conservative aren't more aggresive or progressive in some areas,

Keeping their powder dry?

[Gargamel]

Rovinghawk said:

Keeping their powder dry?

They have only got 7 months left and a legislative agenda that is totally bare.

Where is the progressive, modernising and reforming stuff. It all looks re hashed, safety first kind of stuff.

Go on - name one Conservative aspiration or vision ?

[turbobloke]

An 11 point lead, pah! If it gets to 20 points then it'll be as bad as John Major's position and boy did he lose badly.

Hang on...

[turbobloke]

Gargamel said:

Go on - name one Conservative aspiration or vision?

Stay in the EU?

Make the lights go out?

[crankedup]

Do not fret Ladies and Gentlemen, you can still enjoy Pistonheads from any corner of the globe that you care to depart to.The only hope is that Lib-Dems continue in coalition Government and moderate the worst excesses of Labour.

[gpo746]

Bill said:

Depends when the poll was done. The figures just released say the economy isn't doing as well as hoped, a married Tory has just been caught sending pictures of his cock to a random on the Internet and Labour have just had a conference where they promised the moon on a stick.

Good point Bill.
It appears that poll was done between the 18th and 26th so before and during/ after the Labour conference but BEFORE (I believe) the Tory defection/ resignation and before the commons vote on air strikes. If I am wrong on that I stand corrected.

Information from this link here with a more complete breakdown of the questionnaire:

http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1274/itv-news-margina...

"Methodology Note:

ComRes interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 GB adults living in the 40 most marginal constituencies where the Conservatives and Labour shared first and second place between them at the last General Election in 2010. Interviews were carried out online between the 18th and 26th September 2014. Of these 40 constituencies, 25 currently have a Conservative MP and 15 currently have a Labour MP. Each constituency is represented in the sample equally, with results weighted to be representative of all adults in all 40 constituencies as a whole. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. "

I can only think that the start of the conference and the NHS debate/ "we will do this" thing had an impact ?

[kingofdbrits]

Gargamel said:

1. Economy, nobody actually feels better off. Pay increases this year were again at or below inflation. Personal Tax remains high, and importantly - people expect it to remain high / higher

This is key for the little circle i move in, people i talk to don't Feel any better off. Personally I put this down to Energy costs. My petrol bill for 13-14 was £7341 (though much was claimed back, still paying tax on it), gas & elec was over £2500, as a result of high energy costs, everything costs more. So while I’ve had some pay increases I’m still worse off as my money doesn't go as far as it did 5+ years ago.

So from not giving a seconds thought to energy costs a few years ago to it being something i need to budget for as it's now the third biggest fix cost in my spreadsheet. I think this was the goal of the greenies, make us use less by forcing the costs up, but that's another debate.

I can't understand why anyone would have made a reasoned decision just yet about who to vote for, before the big parties have explained themselves, personally a vote winner for me will be energy policy, and i think Labours will be a bad one, or should i say, worse than the Tories?

[turbobloke]

crankedup said:

Do not fret Ladies and Gentlemen, you can still enjoy Pistonheads from any corner of the globe that you care to depart to.The only hope is that Lib-Dems continue in coalition Government and moderate the worst excesses of Labour.

LibDem's historical positioning to the left of Labour doesn't bode well. It's in the eye of the beholder, some say, but the rest know the score.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/i...

Whether the Labour Party has the stomach for it is debatable.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/forge...

"A solo Labour government might in fact benefit the Lib Dems, who would be seeking to rebuild credibility after their much-anticipated election wipeout."

[gpo746]

BlackLabel said:

Ashcroft's latest polling suggests the same.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/28/la...

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/told-tories-b...

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/ashcroft-nati...

I believe Labour only need a lead of 2 or 3 points for a majority whereas the Tories need a 7 or 8 point lead.

The first one you link to makes pretty stark reading. I am just generally surprised. I suspect it could be a "dirty election" personally.

[don4l]

crankedup said:

Do not fret Ladies and Gentlemen, you can still enjoy Pistonheads from any corner of the globe that you care to depart to.The only hope is that Lib-Dems continue in coalition Government and moderate the worst excesses of Labour.

The LibDems won't have enough seats to form a coalition with anyone. Their ratings are at an all time low.

[DJRC]

crankedup said:

Do not fret Ladies and Gentlemen, you can still enjoy Pistonheads from any corner of the globe that you care to depart to.The only hope is that Lib-Dems continue in coalition Government and moderate the worst excesses of Labour.

You haven't yet justified what worst excesses of Toryism they have moderated...

[Croutons]

Things like:

"The Conservatives yesterday faced embarrassment after a memorandum sent to MPs reminding them of the price of groceries, including bread, milk and Mars Bars, was leaked. The list was designed as an aide-memoire in case members were quizzed about prices and the so-called cost-of-living crisis."

Don't really help the "link to ordinary people" aspect of the Cons image.

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-exp...

[turbobloke]

Croutons said:

Things like:

"The Conservatives yesterday faced embarrassment after a memorandum sent to MPs reminding them of the price of groceries, including bread, milk and Mars Bars, was leaked. The list was designed as an aide-memoire in case members were quizzed about prices and the so-called cost-of-living crisis."

Don't really help the "link to ordinary people" aspect of the Cons image.

Awesome, PR fluff has them running scared.

There may be another memo somewhere from CMD along the lines of "in order to increase gravitas and appear statesmanlike jut your jaw and adopt a tone of genuinely fake sincerity, it almost worked for me".

[Rovinghawk]

Gargamel said:

They have only got 7 months left and a legislative agenda that is totally bare.

To many voters it's not about substance so much as image & perception. It's possible the conservatives are keeping their best PR stuff for nearer the time so as to maximise memory retention in the more goldfish-like electorate.

[Soov535]

I expect that there will be a Conservative and UKIP co-alition this time.

[Zod]

Must be thanks to Miliband's fabuloous speech last week.