£ / Euro

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Discussion

sherbertdip

Original Poster:

1,107 posts

119 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
The pound keeps nudging up against the Euro, currently sitting at 1.285 ish. How high can it go?

I don't see it rising above 1.30Euro, due to export from UK becoming too expensive for Euro zone.

Anybody else thing otherwise and why?

P-Jay

10,564 posts

191 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
sherbertdip said:
The pound keeps nudging up against the Euro, currently sitting at 1.285 ish. How high can it go?

I don't see it rising above 1.30Euro, due to export from UK becoming too expensive for Euro zone.

Anybody else thing otherwise and why?
As long as our economy performs 'better' than the euro zone then the £ will gain against the Euro - that's after all one of the main points of agreed exchange rates it allows a weaker economy to sell goods to a stronger one and export itself back to health.

Digga

40,316 posts

283 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
sherbertdip said:
I don't see it rising above 1.30Euro
I don't see any theoretical barrier to getting back to parity with the USD. Fundamentally, it may not, but it could.

Never is a long time.

V8covin

7,309 posts

193 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
Seeing as it was 1.50 initially it still has a way to go

Mermaid

21,492 posts

171 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
V8covin said:
Seeing as it was 1.50 initially it still has a way to go
those were the happy days smile

Shorting the Euro against the US $ has been a good trade so far.

davepoth

29,395 posts

199 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
sherbertdip said:
The pound keeps nudging up against the Euro, currently sitting at 1.285 ish. How high can it go?

I don't see it rising above 1.30Euro, due to export from UK becoming too expensive for Euro zone.

Anybody else thing otherwise and why?
It's not really about the Pound rising, but the Euro falling. Sterling is only slightly stronger against the Dollar in the last 12 months, but the Euro is significantly weaker against it.

The Eurozone needs to fall to make Europe competitive again, but with so many basket case economies there, all it will do is allow Germany to sell more premium cars. On the other hand, it provides the UK with more motivation to export more outside of the Eurozone. Diversifying away from Europe is a wise move at the moment IMO, and not just because my job involves exporting outside of Europe. wink

Wills2

22,799 posts

175 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
Mermaid said:
V8covin said:
Seeing as it was 1.50 initially it still has a way to go
those were the happy days smile

Shorting the Euro against the US $ has been a good trade so far.
It has been as high as 1.64-7

sherbertdip

Original Poster:

1,107 posts

119 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
I guess the 1.30 "barrier" is in my head.

I have ordered something from a Dutch company, the delivery date is end of February, i don't have to pay for it until then, but i can pay earlier, so it is really how long does my nerve hold watching the exchange rate because i obviously want to save as much money as possible.

RIDA76

31 posts

118 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
Expect market resistance at 1.30 for sure, if it goes past that things will be interesting...

Personally I think it depends on the autumn budget, markets are pricing in an interest rate rise too...

Depends how much you are spending in Holland but unless its tens of thousands I would mt worry, currently at a five year high or near as damn it, I would pull the trigger!

RIDA76

31 posts

118 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
Expect market resistance at 1.30 for sure, if it goes past that things will be interesting...

Personally I think it depends on the autumn budget, markets are pricing in an interest rate rise too...

Depends how much you are spending in Holland but unless its tens of thousands I would mt worry, currently at a five year high or near as damn it, I would pull the trigger!

Johnnytheboy

24,498 posts

186 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
I order stuff from Holland for work every fortnight. The rate my supplier uses is pegged at 1.18 then they pay me a surcharge to adjust. This exchange rate trend makes me happy, especially as at one point not so long ago we were paying them a surcharge.

so called

9,086 posts

209 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
I'm paid in Euro's frown

sherbertdip

Original Poster:

1,107 posts

119 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
The price is 8500 Euro, not a fortune, but not loose change either!

RIDA76

31 posts

118 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
Personally, you are near as damn it at the five year high, for the money you will gain by it moving a cent and the time you spend staring at charts I would trade tomorrow if you can get 1.28 with no fees you should pat yourself on the back. A three cent shift which is unlikely will generate the hardest won couple of hundred quid ever.

It's amazing how many people drive themselvesx mad staring at charts for little real gain, everyone remembers euro at 1.50 but forgets parity... If you can get 1.28 that's awesome, anything over 1.25 is good going in the last few years.

Digga

40,316 posts

283 months

Wednesday 1st October 2014
quotequote all
RIDA76 said:
everyone remembers euro at 1.50 but forgets parity...
Word.

Borghetto

3,274 posts

183 months

Wednesday 1st October 2014
quotequote all
Digga said:
RIDA76 said:
everyone remembers euro at 1.50 but forgets parity...
Word.
I don't remember seeing parity on the fx markets, but can remember forgetting to buy any euros before a trip to France and being offered only parity by those robbing b's at the Bureau de Change at Nice airport.

Digga

40,316 posts

283 months

Wednesday 1st October 2014
quotequote all
Borghetto said:
Digga said:
RIDA76 said:
everyone remembers euro at 1.50 but forgets parity...
Word.
I don't remember seeing parity on the fx markets, but can remember forgetting to buy any euros before a trip to France and being offered only parity by those robbing b's at the Bureau de Change at Nice airport.
RIDA76's point.

TBF, I can't remember, but it was probably yet another of those cases where only banks and the super rich ever got in on the ground floor. Again.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/launch-of-the-eu...

btsidi

246 posts

231 months

Wednesday 1st October 2014
quotequote all
Borghetto said:
I don't remember seeing parity on the fx markets, but can remember forgetting to buy any euros before a trip to France and being offered only parity by those robbing b's at the Bureau de Change at Nice airport.
AFAIK the lowest rate around the end of 2008 was 1.0444
Take off their cash spread and you were "lucky" to get parity frown

Chris Type R

8,026 posts

249 months

Wednesday 1st October 2014
quotequote all
Wills2 said:
It has been as high as 1.64-7
IIRC on a Thomson flight back from Menorca recently they were still using 1.6 on-board if you chose to pay in Euros.

RIDA76

31 posts

118 months

Thursday 2nd October 2014
quotequote all
Chris Type R said:
Wills2 said:
It has been as high as 1.64-7
IIRC on a Thomson flight back from Menorca recently they were still using 1.6 on-board if you chose to pay in Euros.
Yeah but that's the sell side.. Anyone that wants 1.60 selling eur to Gbp I will take the lot! Deal good in your size guys! You can even get 64 that way round if you like, special offer to everyone

Ten year high is about 1.52 and low of 1.02 ( so close to parity) on mid point...

So OP lost about a cent today and with the next resistance at 1.27 downwards who knows we're it could go .... Probably hit another resistance around 24.... I wonder if they traded?