UKIP - The Future - Volume 3

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XJ Flyer

5,526 posts

129 months

Monday 24th November 2014
quotequote all
FiF said:
Interesting post from Mike Smithson.

He's split out the England figures from Ashcroft's latest poll

Essentially his point is that Labour's Scottish crisis could be masking something more significant, the collapse of the Tories in England.

Link to his post here including graphs for each party GE2010 this week, England only.

His summary point is "What strikes me is that the inclusion of Wales and mostly Scotland in the GB figures mean that the UKIP surge has been understated in the part of the UK where 95% of the LAB-CON marginals are."
Which leaves the obvious idea of UKIP changing to an English independence stance in an EIP/SNP alliance.IE UKIP removes any possibility of a Lab/SNP alliance in exchange for guarantees of Scottish independence with no need for another Scottish referendum.In which case a win win situation for both.

Foppo

2,344 posts

123 months

Monday 24th November 2014
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The Don of Croy said:
Mrr T said:
Might have something to do with the 2 million UK passport holders living and working in the EU.
Wow - I can believe 2 million living in Europe, but working? Please confirm source of this...
The majority live in Spain I presume retired and the rest working somewhere else in Europe>smile

Mrr T

12,151 posts

264 months

Tuesday 25th November 2014
quotequote all
Yazar said:
It doesn't matter. A bit of common-sense and they will leave on their own accord.

A migrant on minimum wage + top-up benefits + free health + free schoools etc can survive
A migrant in minimum wage having to pay out for everything will soon find it non worthwhile.

So give benefits to those migrants in roles which we cannot do without/who have worked x amount of years, and remove from the big issue/car washers types.
So what evidence do you have that most EU immigrants are on minimum wage?

Scuffers

20,887 posts

273 months

Tuesday 25th November 2014
quotequote all
Foppo said:
The Don of Croy said:
Mrr T said:
Might have something to do with the 2 million UK passport holders living and working in the EU.
Wow - I can believe 2 million living in Europe, but working? Please confirm source of this...
The majority live in Spain I presume retired and the rest working somewhere else in Europe>smile
whilst there may be 2 million UK passsport holders living in the EU, I would put good money on:

1) a large proportion not working - either retired or their work is non-geographic (as in they are not actually working 'in' the country per say).
2) how many of the 2 million are actually UK born citizens as opposed to people that have gained a UK passport?


don4l

10,058 posts

175 months

Tuesday 25th November 2014
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Guam said:
And today's award for a delusional politician goes to Nick Clegg, he clearly has an overinflated sense of his own importance!

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/539627/Nige...
That's hilarious! However, he has tweo small problems to overcome.

First the LibDems won't have enough seats.

Second, Nick Clegg is by no means certain to hold his own seat.

Mrr T

12,151 posts

264 months

Tuesday 25th November 2014
quotequote all
Scuffers said:
Foppo said:
The Don of Croy said:
Mrr T said:
Might have something to do with the 2 million UK passport holders living and working in the EU.
Wow - I can believe 2 million living in Europe, but working? Please confirm source of this...
The majority live in Spain I presume retired and the rest working somewhere else in Europe>smile
whilst there may be 2 million UK passsport holders living in the EU, I would put good money on:

1) a large proportion not working - either retired or their work is non-geographic (as in they are not actually working 'in' the country per say).
2) how many of the 2 million are actually UK born citizens as opposed to people that have gained a UK passport?
Since this is important for kipper policy should you be guessing?

Of the 1.8m UK passport holders living in the EU about 400k draw UK pensions. There are no figures for early retirees but clearly a lot are working.

As for how many have gained a UK passports I can see no statistics. My guess would be few.

I know as a kipper it must be terrible that some of may have to/want to spend time living and working in the EU, however, it is a fact.

FiF

43,960 posts

250 months

Tuesday 25th November 2014
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Just a question, since it's important to know the numbers of who from where is here or there, then shouldn't the government know? Points at ONS reports criticising Govt figures as pretty much works of fiction.

But hey carry on criticising an emergent party for not having data that the Govt with all the resources at its disposal can't get even half accurate.

Esseesse

8,969 posts

207 months

Tuesday 25th November 2014
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
Since this is important for kipper policy should you be guessing?

Of the 1.8m UK passport holders living in the EU about 400k draw UK pensions. There are no figures for early retirees but clearly a lot are working.

As for how many have gained a UK passports I can see no statistics. My guess would be few.

I know as a kipper it must be terrible that some of may have to/want to spend time living and working in the EU, however, it is a fact.
Why would you not be able to work in the EU if we left?

So 400,000 pensioners, leaving 1.4 million. I wonder how many students are in that number. And does that 1.4m include the children and spouses of those working?

Scuffers

20,887 posts

273 months

Tuesday 25th November 2014
quotequote all
what's amusing is I spent time working in some of these countries before they joined the EU without any issues what so ever.

for example, did several months in Poland back in '96.


mrpurple

2,624 posts

187 months

Tuesday 25th November 2014
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Scuffers said:
what's amusing is I spent time working in some of these countries before they joined the EU without any issues what so ever.

for example, did several months in Poland back in '96.
I went all over Europe as well as in / out and through Poland many times in the 90's, by train and car, and apart from the deepest motorway ruts I have ever seen never had a single problem.

Scuffers

20,887 posts

273 months

Tuesday 25th November 2014
quotequote all
exactly, no different to working in any other non EU country, each country has their rules, but most are pretty easy to understand and comply with.

the very idea that by pulling out, we suddenly find all 1.8M people are thrown out of the EU is just laughable, the spanish economy would instantly die without all the pensioners/ex-pats money just for starters.

Unless you're as pathetic a moron as Cleggieboy, anybody with half a brain realises that.

steveT350C

6,728 posts

160 months

Tuesday 25th November 2014
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Yazar

1,476 posts

119 months

Tuesday 25th November 2014
quotequote all
Waste of space Clegg writing ahead of his visit to Berlin today where he will sort out all the Eu problems hehe His article attempts to position LibDems as far to the right on immigration as he can stomach... which is not much at all.

Cleggy said:
The Tories should have learnt the perils of overclaiming and underdelivering on immigration. They have finally admitted they will not bring net migration down to tens of thousands, a foolish target we warned them they would miss. Thankfully, there is an alternative to chasing Ukip down a blind alley. It is what I will be discussing in Berlin today.

Overwhelmingly, European migrants come here to work and pay taxes. The ability of people to move across Europe as easily as goods and services is a founding principle of the single market – and a right that millions of Britons have enjoyed. For the sake of British prosperity, we must protect it. That means showing people the rules are fair.

Cleggy ideas:

-Follow Germanys example and strengthen our laws- Germany is pursuing such as five year re-entry bans for migrants involved in identity or benefit fraud (banghead Why 5 years, why not forever!).
-"we should look at increasing the earnings threshold for in-work benefits such as tax credits. EU migrants could, for example, be required to work the equivalent of full-time hours on the minimum wage in order to qualify."
- "Before applying for social housing, migrants must first live in an area for at least two years."

Summary:

"All this can be pursued without tearing up the freedom to move across Europe or threatening to pull out of the EU. The choice is clear. We can feed people ever more irresponsible claims about immigration, raising hopes only to dash them in the end. Or – far better – we can reform the rules to address people’s legitimate concerns, while safeguarding our open economy too."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9bbbd83e-74a5-11e4-b30b-00144feabdc0.html

Yazar

1,476 posts

119 months

Wednesday 26th November 2014
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
Yazar said:
It doesn't matter. A bit of common-sense and they will leave on their own accord.

A migrant on minimum wage + top-up benefits + free health + free schoools etc can survive
A migrant in minimum wage having to pay out for everything will soon find it non worthwhile.

So give benefits to those migrants in roles which we cannot do without/who have worked x amount of years, and remove from the big issue/car washers types.
So what evidence do you have that most EU immigrants are on minimum wage?
"If one looks at actual gross weekly earnings for migrants from the Eastern European countries of the EU who are employed in the UK, it is clear that a significant number are unlikely to be making any net contribution to the Treasury, since half of them are earning no more than £300 a week."





Note: Largest group is couples with kids, add on the singles with kids too. So that is Housing benefit + school costs + child benefit and so on.



Don't forget that 600,000 Eu migrants in the UK are not working at all (EU's own study)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/1...



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5273356.stm


Edited by Yazar on Wednesday 26th November 00:22

Transmitter Man

4,253 posts

223 months

Wednesday 26th November 2014
quotequote all
Yaz,

Good write-up but what about those that are working in various professions but who are evading tax entirely?

Sorry, but due to life/corruption/survival in some countries, this comes in ones D & A at birth.

How can you measure that, one can only guestimate.

Phil

Edited by Transmitter Man on Wednesday 26th November 04:45

don4l

10,058 posts

175 months

Wednesday 26th November 2014
quotequote all
Transmitter Man said:
Yaz,

Good write-up but what about those that are working in various professions but who are evading tax entirely?

Sorry, but due to life/corruption/survival in some countries, this comes in ones D & A at birth.

How can you measure that, one can only guestimate.

Phil

Edited by Transmitter Man on Wednesday 26th November 04:45
Nobody is evading tax entirely. Some people on benefits get all their money given to them, but they still pay tax.

ETA. I suspect that you meant evading income tax.



Edited by don4l on Wednesday 26th November 11:01

PRTVR

7,072 posts

220 months

Wednesday 26th November 2014
quotequote all
don4l said:
Transmitter Man said:
Yaz,

Good write-up but what about those that are working in various professions but who are evading tax entirely?

Sorry, but due to life/corruption/survival in some countries, this comes in ones D & A at birth.

How can you measure that, one can only guestimate.

Phil

Edited by Transmitter Man on Wednesday 26th November 04:45
Nobody is evading tax entirely. Some people on benefits get all their money given to them, but they still pay tax.

What motivates you to write such nonsense?
I think what he means is like them lovely people who will clean your car for cash, I doubt they have accountants working out there tax.

jagnet

4,095 posts

201 months

Wednesday 26th November 2014
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
I think what he means is like them lovely people who will clean your car for cash, I doubt they have accountants working out there tax.
Talking of hand car washes, only this week Surrey Police have been out and about checking on just this sort of thing:

Surrey Police said:
A multi-agency operation to tackle potential criminality associated with hand car wash outlets in West Surrey has been carried out at six locations.

The clampdown focussed on establishing the status of workers at the locations, to see if any were victims of human trafficking or were being exploited, through slavery, poor living conditions or low and non-existent wages. Enquiries were undertaken to find out if the establishments were operating safely and legally and not as a ‘smoke screen' for associated criminal activities.
http://www.surrey.police.uk/News/News-Stories/Full...

Frybywire

466 posts

195 months

Wednesday 26th November 2014
quotequote all
steveT350C said:
UKIP, working class
Funniest thing I have heard this week.

Yazar

1,476 posts

119 months

Wednesday 26th November 2014
quotequote all
Transmitter Man said:
Yaz,
what about those that are working in various professions but who are evading tax entirely?
The way our 'in-work top-up' system works it doesn't make any sense to evade tax entirely, instead declare it lower and get the extra cash from the government via top up benefits, easy to do if you are working as 'self-employed', hence why every single Big Issue Seller around my area now is a Romanian.


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