Greece snap elections - 25th Jan
Discussion
jogon said:
Welshbeef said:
Axionknight said:
I Exit polls suggest Syriza to poll "up to" 39.5% of the vote.
Ah well they will not be exiting the EU after all then - a bit like the Pro Yes Scotland referendum. 
Its higher than the opinion polls which already had them set for a majority. 
its almost like there are more than 2 parties standingFar be it from me to support a hard left party, but they will blow through the corporatist and statist running dogs and lackeys like a dose of salts. Paul Mason did a great interview with their Finance guy on Friday, very interesting. Of course, being lefties, their proposed economic remedies are totally wrong, which is a shame since their diagnosis is extremely astute. Still, if they can clear the decks and smash the old guard, it does at least leave the way clear for a more sensible bunch to take power after the inevitable car crash.
Personally, I can't wait to see dear old Herr Schauble's scowling Germanic face when the bail out document gets put through the shredder and he realises the Germans won't be getting any of their money back! He's a proper "kraut" of the very worst kind and his idiotic policies have smashed millions of lives. In my view he's the second most destructive German ever, after that other bloke a few years ago, I forget his name now... 
Personally, I can't wait to see dear old Herr Schauble's scowling Germanic face when the bail out document gets put through the shredder and he realises the Germans won't be getting any of their money back!
He's a proper "kraut" of the very worst kind and his idiotic policies have smashed millions of lives. In my view he's the second most destructive German ever, after that other bloke a few years ago, I forget his name now... Andy Zarse said:
Far be it from me to support a hard left party, but they will blow through the corporatist and statist running dogs and lackeys like a dose of salts. Paul Mason did a great interview with their Finance guy on Friday, very interesting. Of course, being lefties, their proposed economic remedies are totally wrong, which is a shame since their diagnosis is extremely astute. Still, if they can clear the decks and smash the old guard, it does at least leave the way clear for a more sensible bunch to take power after the inevitable car crash.
Personally, I can't wait to see dear old Herr Schauble's scowling Germanic face when the bail out document gets put through the shredder and he realises the Germans won't be getting any of their money back! He's a proper "kraut" of the very worst kind and his idiotic policies have smashed millions of lives. In my view he's the second most destructive German ever, after that other bloke a few years ago, I forget his name now...
Hitler was from Austria, so you must mean Wernher Von Braun ;-)Personally, I can't wait to see dear old Herr Schauble's scowling Germanic face when the bail out document gets put through the shredder and he realises the Germans won't be getting any of their money back!
He's a proper "kraut" of the very worst kind and his idiotic policies have smashed millions of lives. In my view he's the second most destructive German ever, after that other bloke a few years ago, I forget his name now... Andy Zarse said:
Personally, I can't wait to see dear old Herr Schauble's scowling Germanic face when the bail out document gets put through the shredder and he realises the Germans won't be getting any of their money back!
But that is when the decision has to be made whether to call it a day with Greece and the euro and leave them to their own devices or not. If they don't then it won't be long before other indebted euro countries will see it grossly unfair that Greece has got a better deal by blackmail.Syriza isn't as anti-establishment as they pretend. They want to keep all the current structure in European terms so their movements will be very limited. They're not even talking about writing off all the debt - only some and only some payment restructuring. They still want and expect the next tranche of euros keeping Greek banks afloat to show up.
Whilst the Greek situation is stupid - they are borrowing money to pay the interest on existing loans from the same people - it is the effect a change in the Greek position will have on the deals others countries have which is the big issue.
You can elect as radical government as you like but when your fiscal policy is controlled by someone else entirely there isn't actually all that much they can do.
confused_buyer said:
Syriza isn't as anti-establishment as they pretend. They want to keep all the current structure in European terms so their movements will be very limited. They're not even talking about writing off all the debt - only some and only some payment restructuring. They still want and expect the next tranche of euros keeping Greek banks afloat to show up.
They pretend to be a pro establishment party. (being 70% of Greeks poled want to keep euros). They knew full well if they went into the election shouting ditch the euro then they wouldn't find themselves in the position they are tonight.However, Alexis will find himself in an untenable position on the game of political chess that will follow.
My guess is an underhanded mighty complex EU cash manoeuvre which will keep the Ponzi scheme going a while longer and keep syriza party in office that is until the people realise that again no real change is on the horizon.
Greece is down the pan. It's only a matter of time before others follow.
craig7l said:
They pretend to be a pro establishment party. (being 70% of Greeks poled want to keep euros). They knew full well if they went into the election shouting ditch the euro then they wouldn't find themselves in the position they are tonight.
However, Alexis will find himself in an untenable position on the game of political chess that will follow.
My guess is an underhanded mighty complex EU cash manoeuvre which will keep the Ponzi scheme going a while longer and keep syriza party in office that is until the people realise that again no real change is on the horizon.
Greece is down the pan. It's only a matter of time before others follow.
I agree with you here. There are two things that have to be reconciled - the EU cannot be seen to allow Greece to default or have a haircut. Syriza needs to be able to show it has 'done in' the big bad EU and got concessions. However, Alexis will find himself in an untenable position on the game of political chess that will follow.
My guess is an underhanded mighty complex EU cash manoeuvre which will keep the Ponzi scheme going a while longer and keep syriza party in office that is until the people realise that again no real change is on the horizon.
Greece is down the pan. It's only a matter of time before others follow.
Expect an ultimate sleight of hand, a conflation of different things, behind the scene action with denials anything is happening.
jonah35 said:
What will happen?
Will Germany still pay the 7 billion?
How will this work out?
Really the EU need to think very hard about thisWill Germany still pay the 7 billion?
How will this work out?
If Greece leaves and then prospers that could mean others follow and leave the debt burden on Germany
If it stays or goes not as hard on the terms what does that mean for others who have received help? Why can they not have the same
It is only £7billions a trivial amount for the UK and pocket change for the EU. So needs to be considered accordingly.
Very difficult choices to be made - and Greece holds all the cards they have had enough they don't care now a dangerous negotiating position to those against Greece.
My perspective on this is that in the Police when you cornered someone who has nothing left to lose, you know they may act irrationally and aggressively.
Germany has benefited from a Euro that made their products cheaper by the balancing effects of the less developed EU Euro nations. When Germany found that their obligations for reparations in the 30's were crippling they reacted aggressively and irrationally. The Greeks who feel it can't get any worse may feel that no matter what the results of the election, no matter how unpleasant default of debts is - they might just not care. If the pro-Euro politicians had their way, our countries financial solvency could rely on Greek elections. As things stand this will hurt everyone in the EU - but in time it may help.
Germany has benefited from a Euro that made their products cheaper by the balancing effects of the less developed EU Euro nations. When Germany found that their obligations for reparations in the 30's were crippling they reacted aggressively and irrationally. The Greeks who feel it can't get any worse may feel that no matter what the results of the election, no matter how unpleasant default of debts is - they might just not care. If the pro-Euro politicians had their way, our countries financial solvency could rely on Greek elections. As things stand this will hurt everyone in the EU - but in time it may help.
They're saying Greece will still get the 7 billion.
If the eu give into weaker terms then it just goes to show the eu has no teeth and everyone will want to renegotiate
If the eu don't allow the terms to be weakened then Greece will leave
If greece leaves do they pay back debt? What if they don't? Surely the last thing left is Germany either write it off because the other option is war! Sounds far fetched but they're the 2 options.
If Greece spirals into debt then who on earth is gonna help them out. Surely the eu can't because that would be ridiculous.
If Greece prospers then everyone will leave.
How can this end well other than potential cheap holidays to Greece.
If the eu give into weaker terms then it just goes to show the eu has no teeth and everyone will want to renegotiate
If the eu don't allow the terms to be weakened then Greece will leave
If greece leaves do they pay back debt? What if they don't? Surely the last thing left is Germany either write it off because the other option is war! Sounds far fetched but they're the 2 options.
If Greece spirals into debt then who on earth is gonna help them out. Surely the eu can't because that would be ridiculous.
If Greece prospers then everyone will leave.
How can this end well other than potential cheap holidays to Greece.
jonah35 said:
If Greece spirals into debt then who on earth is gonna help them out. Surely the eu can't because that would be ridiculous.
It's long past that; Greece has been bankrupt for the last 6 years, barring the In the event of a Grexit the IMF is pretty much the only show in town and they will likely insist on privatising or selling everything. Quite how this squares with Marxists in control I'm unclear.
hidetheelephants said:
The sum total of this facile can-kicking activity is that a load of economists and bankers are a lot richer, lots of Greeks no longer have jobs and the greek economy has regressed 40 years.
Not entirely - effectively Greece has defaulted, but by pretending they haven't enough time was bought to get to the situation that it no longer really matters.The money's gone - creditors will probably get back new bonds in about 2020, 15 cents on the Euro.
Greece will stay in the Euro - not that it matters, as the cash economy will continue to function in Euros through preference. The only point to redominating to 'New Drachmas' or whatever is the state defaulting on its internal obligations whilst pretending it hasn't - paying pensions, salaries, etc, in toilet paper instead of hard currency. That and shutting the banks from the moment savers begin to suspect a withdrawal from the Euro to well after the deed is done, and their deposits redenominated.
Either way it's going to get pretty damn miserable in Greece (even compared with now) - I can see that we're going to have to dig deep for aid to avoid, for example, child malnutition.
Octoposse said:
ot entirely - effectively Greece has defaulted, but by pretending they haven't enough time was bought to get to the situation that it no longer really matters.
The money's gone - creditors will probably get back new bonds in about 2020, 15 cents on the Euro.
Greece will stay in the Euro - not that it matters, as the cash economy will continue to function in Euros through preference. The only point to redominating to 'New Drachmas' or whatever is the state defaulting on its internal obligations whilst pretending it hasn't - paying pensions, salaries, etc, in toilet paper instead of hard currency. That and shutting the banks from the moment savers begin to suspect a withdrawal from the Euro to well after the deed is done, and their deposits redenominated.
Either way it's going to get pretty damn miserable in Greece (even compared with now) - I can see that we're going to have to dig deep for aid to avoid, for example, child malnutition.
They'll likely be OK. Based on their current budget they will be able to run at a surplus on their current spending commitments if they don't have to service their debt, so defaulting won't hurt as much as it would if they did still need to borrow. It's difficult to know what the knock-on effects will be, but certainly a devalued Greek economy will make Greek exports more competitive. The money's gone - creditors will probably get back new bonds in about 2020, 15 cents on the Euro.
Greece will stay in the Euro - not that it matters, as the cash economy will continue to function in Euros through preference. The only point to redominating to 'New Drachmas' or whatever is the state defaulting on its internal obligations whilst pretending it hasn't - paying pensions, salaries, etc, in toilet paper instead of hard currency. That and shutting the banks from the moment savers begin to suspect a withdrawal from the Euro to well after the deed is done, and their deposits redenominated.
Either way it's going to get pretty damn miserable in Greece (even compared with now) - I can see that we're going to have to dig deep for aid to avoid, for example, child malnutition.
As long as they can get past an initial 5-10 year stage without mass person exodus to a better propositioned country to live they will start to see green shoots ( especially the younger demographic of skilled labour.)
I would assume a newly trained Greek doctor would try to aim for a country where he wasn't paid in olives and chickens such as Syria.
I would assume a newly trained Greek doctor would try to aim for a country where he wasn't paid in olives and chickens such as Syria.
davepoth said:
They'll likely be OK.
Exactly. Anyone familiar with the research of Reinhart and Rogoff will know that Greece has been in default for 50% of its existence as a country. Another default is not going to be total disaster. Perpetual austerity, with no hope of ever paying off an increasing debt is certainly the worse option.Coalition formed with the Inependent Greeks a right wing party with some rather interesting policies for Merkel to consider.
Wiki says - "The party campaigns for lifting the immunity of ministers, parliamentarians, and officials against prosecution and to make accountable those who bear the blame for the crisis. It calls for the protection of national sovereignty, for German war reparations (for the invasion and occupation of Greece in the Second World War), for cancelling the memorandum which it deems illegal, and for building Greece anew"
Wiki says - "The party campaigns for lifting the immunity of ministers, parliamentarians, and officials against prosecution and to make accountable those who bear the blame for the crisis. It calls for the protection of national sovereignty, for German war reparations (for the invasion and occupation of Greece in the Second World War), for cancelling the memorandum which it deems illegal, and for building Greece anew"
Sadly, I think a lot of voters thought they'd chosen a free lunch - some sort of miraculous way out of austerity.
The reality is that bureaucracy, corruption and inefficiency are endemic throughout the economy and its history and there's little to suggest there is a real will or ability to resolve the fundamental issues.
The reality is that bureaucracy, corruption and inefficiency are endemic throughout the economy and its history and there's little to suggest there is a real will or ability to resolve the fundamental issues.
We'll be spending Drachs again on holiday soon.
We went Greece on holiday the year before the Euro arrived. With the Drachma at 500 to £ a starter cost about £1
The following year, post Euro, we went back to the same place and ate at the same restaurant (good home cooked food) and now the same starter cost the equivalent of £1.40. Reminded me of decimalisation in the UK. When the rot set in.
We went Greece on holiday the year before the Euro arrived. With the Drachma at 500 to £ a starter cost about £1
The following year, post Euro, we went back to the same place and ate at the same restaurant (good home cooked food) and now the same starter cost the equivalent of £1.40. Reminded me of decimalisation in the UK. When the rot set in.
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