Cashing out of Euros

Cashing out of Euros

Author
Discussion

Audicab

Original Poster:

480 posts

246 months

Thursday 22nd January 2015
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Hi all, I'm looking for thoughts. We have just sold a house in France and getting paid into a French bank account, the funds should clear over the next few days.

I'm thinking about when to convert from Euros to £, especially with the QE announcement today. Would you convert ASAP or wait a little while to see if the Euro strengthens.

It isn't a massive amount, about 120k Euro, but still a few % movement can make quite a big difference.

Thanks

jeff m2

2,060 posts

150 months

Thursday 22nd January 2015
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I'm not an expert on Currency, I do not trade it.
I do however take it into account when looking at foreign equity.

Europe are starting to make 60 Bn per month in purchases, that should at least keep the Euro level with the Pond.
I think keeping in Euros could be benificial.


walm

10,609 posts

201 months

Thursday 22nd January 2015
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jeff m2 said:
I'm not an expert on Currency, I do not trade it.
I do however take it into account when looking at foreign equity.

Europe are starting to make 60 Bn per month in purchases, that should at least keep the Euro level with the Pond.
I think keeping in Euros could be benificial.
That is the exact opposite of what QE does!

jeff m2

2,060 posts

150 months

Thursday 22nd January 2015
quotequote all
walm said:
jeff m2 said:
I'm not an expert on Currency, I do not trade it.
I do however take it into account when looking at foreign equity.

Europe are starting to make 60 Bn per month in purchases, that should at least keep the Euro level with the Pond.
I think keeping in Euros could be benificial.
That is the exact opposite of what QE does!
Isn't the 60 Bn already priced in? Hence the current rate.
The Pound is quite strong at present (Dollar and Euro).
Not a great time to buy Pounds.
Whether 1.25 is the floor I've no idea.

Probably best to look at the futures.

Stig

11,817 posts

283 months

Thursday 22nd January 2015
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Not wishing to hijack - but where in France was your house?

We have a place in Brittany that we're considering selling, but market (according to notaire) is deader than a dead thing? They seemed to think that the only stuff moving was about 60k!! :-o

Audicab

Original Poster:

480 posts

246 months

Thursday 22nd January 2015
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It was in the Auvergne, there were a couple of offers, both from French people. Sold after about 2 months and there were a few viewings.

Martin4x4

6,506 posts

131 months

Thursday 22nd January 2015
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I wouldn't buy Pounds with Euros at the moment.


walm

10,609 posts

201 months

Friday 23rd January 2015
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jeff m2 said:
Isn't the 60 Bn already priced in? Hence the current rate.
The Pound is quite strong at present (Dollar and Euro).
Not a great time to buy Pounds.
Whether 1.25 is the floor I've no idea.

Probably best to look at the futures.
1. QE is similar to lowering interest rates. It weakens a currency.
2. The 60bn was larger than expected so you saw the EUR instantly drop a load vs. the USD.
3. You are right - NOW the 60bn should be priced in, it wasn't yesterday morning, hence the drop.
4. There is still a risk that the QE doesn't work - it doesn't stimulate the economy and this means they may have to do it AGAIN - hence weakening the currency further.

The pound is "strong" because the UK is much closer to RAISING interest rates.

RAClNG SNAKE

3,606 posts

231 months

Friday 23rd January 2015
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€60 billion a month until Sept 2016 which makes €1.14 trillion in total, with the option to continue.

However the £ dropped as well this week as BoE minutes showed that MPC voting was back to 9-0 to keep rates on hold, from 7-2 previously.

Edited by RAClNG SNAKE on Friday 23 January 09:17

Steve7777

235 posts

148 months

Friday 23rd January 2015
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You can always convert half of it if you want to hedge your bets. You're presumably not going to leave it just sat as cash though?

R11ysf

1,931 posts

181 months

Friday 23rd January 2015
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OP,
What Walm wrote is correct in fact. I would argue though that QE was already priced in before yesterday as they had been dropping severe hints and there were 'official rumours' of the amount for the days before. But anyway that's irrelevant to what you want to know/ No-one seems to want to hang their hat on a peg I will tell you what I'm doing. NB. I'm a bond trader NOT a currency trader so this is just my opinion.

I am short Euros as I've thought the whole euro and various economies in it were basket cases. Draghi has been hell bent on doing "whatever is necessary" since day 1 and continues to push the QE agenda regardless. He even made a comment that QE was essentially coming a few months back and attributed it to the ECB whereas it was his own individual opinion - that pissed off a few other members.

This is only the first round of QE. They reserve the right to continue it or increase it if they feel it isn't doing the job. Euro economies have still been floundering whilst US and UK economies have recovered a great deal.

So with all this I've still not given you my opinion. Well I am short Euro against the pound and have been for 2 years. I have taken off approximately 25% of my position and am letting the rest run as I think things will get worse before they get better. I am targeting 70cents to the £ before getting out of the majority, though I am onside a great deal so I have the room to let it breathe. Personally I know that I will go to Europe often so I would leave some spending money there but I would bring the majority back as my expenditure is GBP based.

That's just my opinion though.

Lost soul

8,712 posts

181 months

Friday 23rd January 2015
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We buy and sell a lot in € a week ago we were working on 1:26 today it is 1:31 I think it will move down a bit more yet

Noblebenn

297 posts

185 months

Friday 30th January 2015
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Chris Canning at Argentex Private will speak it through with you. Sorting ours out now and although property is in Turkey our transfer is Euros and he is saving us a lot. There are a few options available splitting funds etc that I was unaware of.