2015: The Bubble Bursts!

[Mr Whippy]

King Herald said:

I'm sure it is a type, from doom, or gloom, or something like that.

I was not aware there is a boom of any sort going on in the UK, but I don't actually live there at the moment.

A relative boom.

Some assets are booming while everyone sits there with static salaries and rising living costs wondering WTAF!

FTSE100, is now a good time to buy, it's going up... to everyday cars at ~ 8yrs old and average miles at prices still not even half of their original retail price, to houses making the strong march upwards in values until very recently it would appear.

Credit driven 'boom', again. And it'll all end in tears this time around as there is nowhere to hide. The sea will go out and all the naked people will have their bits exposed

Dave

[Birkin1932]

We are doing well at the moment. But there are an awful lot of so called 'zombie' companies dragging the sector down

[355Chris355]

Used car prices down 5.7% in March as reported by NAMA (National Association of Motor Auctions). This follows a drop of o.4% in February

http://www.businesscarmanager.co.uk/used-car-price...

[Atmospheric]

Is there a car with more solid residuals than the BMW Z8? They appear not to have moved from the £80-100k mark for years.

[355Chris355]

In the Supercar section there's a thread on the sheer number of 991 GT3's for sale (circa 50) and a thread on the large number of Huracan's for sale.

Evidence that Porsche and Lamborghini are trying to take advantage of the Foreign Exchange profits available with the strong pound.

Also talk of discounts on the Huracan's. Not surprising given that the strong pound gives these companies the option to maintain volumes by taking a hit on prices.

Once price pressures takes hold on the new stuff it's only a matter of time before prices of the older variants also take a dip.

[BoRED S2upid]

When do these cheap used cars start to flood the market? All I see if pretty strong used car prices.

I don't share the OP's doom and gloom cheap finance is here to stay by the look of it and not until that disappears are things going to get tough.

[Mr Whippy]

BoRED S2upid said:

When do these cheap used cars start to flood the market? All I see if pretty strong used car prices.

I don't share the OP's doom and gloom cheap finance is here to stay by the look of it and not until that disappears are things going to get tough.

The thing is cheap finance is still a big cost if you're using it to buy stuff you possibly can't afford.

Right now we're still telling ourselves things are getting better, so spending a lot on a car is ok.

Two outcomes.

Things are not getting better, so spending money on new cars isn't smart as there are more important things to do with money if things are not getting better.

Things are getting better, so inflation will rise, and so will interest rates, so cost of debt will rise in the short to medium term.


Either way used car supply will be lower again like 08/09.


So we'll probably see a dip in used car prices of stuff from 11-15 vintage, and then a rise again due to the lower production in the near future through whatever mechanic we see arise (recovery, or continued doldrums)


But if there is an underlying bubble due to excessive cheap credit allowing asset prices to be pushed higher than is reasonable, then they might all be lower in absolute terms.

Either way you look at it, economic tampering, rather than free market mechanics, has left some ugly unintended consequences to unravel, unwind and reveal themselves in the coming half decade!

Dave

[355Chris355]

http://www.nama-uk.com/_assets/May_2015_CAR_Auctio...

Average sale prices for used car prices at auction have fallen for 5 months in a row!

[355Chris355]

Quentin Wilson (Classic Cars Magazine) is calling out a 'market recalibration' for 2015

[Murph7355]

355Chris355 said:

Quentin Wilson (Classic Cars Magazine) is calling out a 'market recalibration' for 2015

Presumably he's finished selling all his then

[Wills2]

Atmospheric said:

Is there a car with more solid residuals than the BMW Z8? They appear not to have moved from the £80-100k mark for years.

They are trying to sell them for 150K+ these days...."trying" being the operative word.

[swisstoni]

I never got them. Looks like someone photocopied the design for a pretty little roadster on 150% magnification and they built that.

[ex1]

Wills2 said:

Atmospheric said:

Is there a car with more solid residuals than the BMW Z8? They appear not to have moved from the £80-100k mark for years.

They are trying to sell them for 150K+ these days...."trying" being the operative word.

There is a storey that used z8 prices were manipulted. Everything available bought by one bloke who controlled the market. I hear he was an ex bmw gm who saw the potential. Very small numbers sold in the UK and poor rv's for first few years make it quite plausible.

[toohangry]

Atmospheric said:

Is there a car with more solid residuals than the BMW Z8? They appear not to have moved from the £80-100k mark for years.

When the crunch happened they dropped to around £40k but bounced back to the £80s fairly quickly.

[Foppo]

There will be a adjustment like there always is to this financial system.The patient is sick and we keep giving it medicines but not curing the problem.

I was listening to a retired German Banker and he mentioned the dirty tricks the banks did to so many ordinary people.They cocked it up and we pay the price.He often mentioned the word Swine Hunds referring to his own kind.

[jonah35]

Many classic cars have doubled if not tripled in price in 18-24 months

355
996 gt3
996 gt3 rs
360 stradale
E36 m3
Z3 m coupe

Anything over 10 years old has shot up.

Property is going up every day.

It can't stop yet as people are in the process of taking literally billions out of their pensions that needs to be spent.

8th July Tory speech may change things,

[superkartracer]

And i'll be waiting for the crash, like last time

People are mental..

Thinking back to early 90's, remember many *rich* people losing everything overnight, old 911's and E-types from memory.

355's are worth 30-35k tops.. all these cars require ££ to keep them running/working well, terrible investments.

Edited by superkartracer on Monday 8th June 18:22

[superkartracer]

fesuvious said:

superkartracer said:

And i'll be waiting for the crash, like last time

355's are worth 30-35k tops.. all these cars require ££ to keep them running/working well, terrible investments.

Edited by superkartracer on Monday 8th June 18:22

I agree, mines not put a foot wrong in four years, and averaged out at a horrendous £2500 per year to run, inc fuel and insurance. Maintained properly by a Ferrari Specialist.

Very best of luck , spent 6-8k a year on mine and still had a 35k engine failure ( that was 10 years ago with low millage ).

[Mr GrimNasty]

Something like a 308GT4 for £40/50K which is possible these days, could be worth £10-12K when the bottom falls out of the market.

It's like pass the parcel, except the person caught holding it pays the penalty.

Any fool can see it is the wrong time to be putting money in cars, unless it's for a quick value add and turnaround.

[jshell]

Mr GrimNasty said:

Any fool can see it is the wrong time to be putting money in cars

Not if the threads on here are anything to go by! A Fezza 400 as an investment.. Feck that!