Woodford Patient Capital - invest now or after launch?
Discussion
I've put in 2K via my Hargreaves Lansdown SIPP at launch. Biggest thing to remember with this is how its traded so might be unavailable to cash out.
Ive gone for it at the launch so waiting for my allocation to come through via HL, sometimes it tricky when to best enter the market and given how he will be investing with this I prefer to get in early.
£ 2,000.00 Woodford Patient Capital Trust Share Offer Invest Pending
Currently 15% up on his other recent fund so you got to be in it to win it right
Ive gone for it at the launch so waiting for my allocation to come through via HL, sometimes it tricky when to best enter the market and given how he will be investing with this I prefer to get in early.
£ 2,000.00 Woodford Patient Capital Trust Share Offer Invest Pending
Currently 15% up on his other recent fund so you got to be in it to win it right
Edited by oldaudi on Wednesday 4th March 11:11
Edited by oldaudi on Wednesday 4th March 11:12
Thanks for your reply.
That's basically the way I'm leaning at the minute; given his reputation I suspect there's a chance this might trade at a premium to NAV.
May also hedge my bets, maybe a couple of £k at launch and keep a bit back just in case they trade at a discount sometime soon.
That's basically the way I'm leaning at the minute; given his reputation I suspect there's a chance this might trade at a premium to NAV.
May also hedge my bets, maybe a couple of £k at launch and keep a bit back just in case they trade at a discount sometime soon.
As a (sort of) comparison, the fundsmith emerging markets IT ended up trading at a premium, largely based on the success of the core equities fund. The premium has come down as the performance of the underlying fund hasnt been great but Id see Woodfood in the same boat and have made an application via HL, on the basis that I think allocations will be scaled back but probably less with them than anyone else
Should the raise in the initial offer from £200m to £800m be a cause for concern?
I am keen on the concept and have enjoyed remarkable 9 month returns from a stock (Allied Minds) offering a similar investment strategy, however still being relatively new to the whole investment game (2 years in) my nerves are a little shaken by the size of the rise.
I am keen on the concept and have enjoyed remarkable 9 month returns from a stock (Allied Minds) offering a similar investment strategy, however still being relatively new to the whole investment game (2 years in) my nerves are a little shaken by the size of the rise.
my understanding on this latest Woodford 'fund' is that its being handled as a PLC and floated on the market, that way if you miss the initial offering, you then pay market rate on the shares, so if its heavily over subscribed (which seems to be the case) the price could rocket a fair bit.
Of course i could be off on my initial understanding of the way its being run.
Of course i could be off on my initial understanding of the way its being run.
Edited by glm1977 on Monday 13th April 12:14
Mr Trophy said:
I have a meeting with Woodford Investments on Thursday and I am looking forward to seeing what they're going to say.
I am a bit "ahhh" that it's been raised to 800 million though...
Be interested to hear what they have to say on the topic of the rise. Anything you are able to share would be well received. I am a bit "ahhh" that it's been raised to 800 million though...
Would also love to hear this. My deal has been sat there pending for an age now, then I receive the Email from HL about the changes.
Not sure to cancel it and look elsewhere to spend it
It looks like its gone from 500,000,000 to 800,000,000 due to concerns raised by investors about having to be scaled back. So it looks like it was over subscribed and to fix that they've just put more shares in the mix. Makes you wonder if they will sell all 800,000,000 now, if not, there will be lots available to buy, therefore possibly pushing the price down and a paper loss for those of us signing up at launch......
Perhaps I split my purchase....some for launch and see what happens with the price once they are trading
Not sure to cancel it and look elsewhere to spend it
It looks like its gone from 500,000,000 to 800,000,000 due to concerns raised by investors about having to be scaled back. So it looks like it was over subscribed and to fix that they've just put more shares in the mix. Makes you wonder if they will sell all 800,000,000 now, if not, there will be lots available to buy, therefore possibly pushing the price down and a paper loss for those of us signing up at launch......
Perhaps I split my purchase....some for launch and see what happens with the price once they are trading
Edited by oldaudi on Monday 13th April 16:49
Hoddo said:
Interesting. His equity fund is flying - literally.http://www.trustnet.com/Factsheets/Factsheet.aspx?...
Well for what its worth Ive cancelled my pending order. Only £2ks worth but given the shares in issue is now almost double, there is possibility that not all 800 million are purchased at launch. I feel that perhaps the price will drop and it could take longer for him to start investing ALL of the money. I know its long term but Ill keep the cash and see what happens over the next 6 to 12 months on that one I think.
Ive already got a fair bit in his current fund on both income and accumulation across my SIPP and ISA. Will he be able to keep an eye on both?!
Ive already got a fair bit in his current fund on both income and accumulation across my SIPP and ISA. Will he be able to keep an eye on both?!
oldaudi said:
Well for what its worth Ive cancelled my pending order. Only £2ks worth but given the shares in issue is now almost double, there is possibility that not all 800 million are purchased at launch. I feel that perhaps the price will drop and it could take longer for him to start investing ALL of the money. I know its long term but Ill keep the cash and see what happens over the next 6 to 12 months on that one I think.
Ive already got a fair bit in his current fund on both income and accumulation across my SIPP and ISA. Will he be able to keep an eye on both?!
To be clear:Ive already got a fair bit in his current fund on both income and accumulation across my SIPP and ISA. Will he be able to keep an eye on both?!
- The change is from £500m to £800m.
- If they don't have £800m at launch then they simply launch with what they do have.
- As before, the price on the day will be determined by demand for this investment.
However, what has changed is the chance of "stag" gains. Say you believed there was £600m worth of demand and the limit was £500m then the price is very likely to rise on day one of trading as that extra £100m looks for a home by buying the fund in the open market.
Clearly that is no longer going to happen as all of that demand will be met at launch.
That doesn't mean the price will drop necessarily but it makes it less likely it will rise on mere technicality.
Of course, there may be £900m of demand in which case it will rise but still the rise will be less (than 900 vs 500) and chance lower.
To be sure that there was just £500m-£800m of demand is tough but it appears likely that is where demand has fallen so now it is very very likely the fund will simply trade on fundamentals.
For my 2p I would be willing to gamble that this particular fund will trade at a PREMIUM to NAV.
So if they raise £750m then the price will reflect a value at say £750m + 10%.
Lastly, YES it will be harder to put to work but not by much - and it was going to be for the long term in any case.
They will have thought very very carefully about how much they can manage and they have every reason to be conservative since dead money will be a real drag on performance.
I'm not totally impressed with the increase in share capital from £200m to £800m. My worry is that it may take some time to fully invest the majority of the capital in start-up companies and instead the money will sit in large cap UK equities and may overlap quite a bit with his current fund which i'm also in. For a fund of this nature £800m is a lot of money!
That said, i'll still be investing a small amount at launch. I think over the long term this fund should provide good diversification, especially with most equity markets having had a good run recently and none looking especially cheap.
That said, i'll still be investing a small amount at launch. I think over the long term this fund should provide good diversification, especially with most equity markets having had a good run recently and none looking especially cheap.
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