Lord Ashcroft leaves House of Lords
Discussion
FiF said:
Next leader.
Really can't see this, as a Watford FC fan I was kinda grateful for his money at the time but I don't think he had WFC's best interests at heart, the whole thing stank of control over a huge property deal on the surrounding land I suspect he's got no interest in the sort of scrutiny that comes with party leadership.FiF said:
He knows Cameron is dead man walking.
The party won't unite behind Boris or May.
Next leader.
Of course that could be, and probably is, complete twaddle. He is currently only at 100/1 for next leader.
Why do you think Cameron is dead man walking. The party won't unite behind Boris or May.
Next leader.
Of course that could be, and probably is, complete twaddle. He is currently only at 100/1 for next leader.
Ahead in the betting odds (8/11 vs Milliband at Evens)
If there is a trend in the polls it is in his favour
Historical evidence in his favour perhaps
I'm not saying he is a shoe-in by any stretch of the imagination, but your assertion seems uncharacteristically strong so I wondered why
JustAnotherLogin said:
Why do you think Cameron is dead man walking.
Ahead in the betting odds (8/11 vs Milliband at Evens)
If there is a trend in the polls it is in his favour
Historical evidence in his favour perhaps
I'm not saying he is a shoe-in by any stretch of the imagination, but your assertion seems uncharacteristically strong so I wondered why
I thought it very odd too. Maybe he's fundamentally misunderstood the whole situation.Ahead in the betting odds (8/11 vs Milliband at Evens)
If there is a trend in the polls it is in his favour
Historical evidence in his favour perhaps
I'm not saying he is a shoe-in by any stretch of the imagination, but your assertion seems uncharacteristically strong so I wondered why
I think (rightly) more and more peers are coming under pressure to 'retire' from the House, when they can no longer devote the time to make laws. Ashcroft seemed to be a comparatively easy one to convince:
- He doesn't need the money from the allowances
- He has plenty of other interests that will occupy his time
- He has fairly modern attitudes to these things (unlike some who believe they have a divine right to stay in until they die, or perhaps some time after)
- There are plenty of ways to 'encourage' him (e.g. a renewal of public attacks on him etc.)
Retired members still retain the title and rights to use House facilities - I have no problem with this (especially if it's the price for convincing some to step down).
I can only hope more follow his lead.
- He doesn't need the money from the allowances
- He has plenty of other interests that will occupy his time
- He has fairly modern attitudes to these things (unlike some who believe they have a divine right to stay in until they die, or perhaps some time after)
- There are plenty of ways to 'encourage' him (e.g. a renewal of public attacks on him etc.)
Retired members still retain the title and rights to use House facilities - I have no problem with this (especially if it's the price for convincing some to step down).
I can only hope more follow his lead.
Re opinion on Cameron.
If the Conservative party fails to win an outright majority, which they haven't done for 23 years now, then there will be intense pressure to do what the Conservative party always does when they're disappointed. The current most likely outcome is that they won't win an outright victory.
Frankly I don't give a stuff for the polling which suggests that Cameron is not quite as lousy as all the others; that is, in this context a repetitive diversionary tactic.
He knows this, namely what will happen after another failure by the Tory party; his I won't go for a third term is an attempt to stave off the fateful day. He may be successful in that, I suspect he won't be.
People don't have to agree, that is fine; it may be wrong but one believed to be a distinct possibility. It's also a possibility that the millions of Tory votes that have gone missing over the years, as Norman Tebbit and I keep reminding people, might come marching back and Dave returns to No10 with the sort of misty eyed engineered reception that greeted Blair. Like that's going to happen.
If he's not even in number 10 after May then the knives will be out fresh from the sharpener.
If the Conservative party fails to win an outright majority, which they haven't done for 23 years now, then there will be intense pressure to do what the Conservative party always does when they're disappointed. The current most likely outcome is that they won't win an outright victory.
Frankly I don't give a stuff for the polling which suggests that Cameron is not quite as lousy as all the others; that is, in this context a repetitive diversionary tactic.
He knows this, namely what will happen after another failure by the Tory party; his I won't go for a third term is an attempt to stave off the fateful day. He may be successful in that, I suspect he won't be.
People don't have to agree, that is fine; it may be wrong but one believed to be a distinct possibility. It's also a possibility that the millions of Tory votes that have gone missing over the years, as Norman Tebbit and I keep reminding people, might come marching back and Dave returns to No10 with the sort of misty eyed engineered reception that greeted Blair. Like that's going to happen.
If he's not even in number 10 after May then the knives will be out fresh from the sharpener.
richarda0109 said:
I thought Ashcroft, Lord Foster and Lord Paul had to leave the House of Lords due to their non-domicile status?
Rgds
Richard
No, he gave it up:Rgds
Richard
http://www.bbc.com/news/10535852
FiF said:
Re opinion on Cameron.
If the Conservative party fails to win an outright majority, which they haven't done for 23 years now, then there will be intense pressure to do what the Conservative party always does when they're disappointed. The current most likely outcome is that they won't win an outright victory.
Frankly I don't give a stuff for the polling which suggests that Cameron is not quite as lousy as all the others; that is, in this context a repetitive diversionary tactic.
He knows this, namely what will happen after another failure by the Tory party; his I won't go for a third term is an attempt to stave off the fateful day. He may be successful in that, I suspect he won't be.
People don't have to agree, that is fine; it may be wrong but one believed to be a distinct possibility. It's also a possibility that the millions of Tory votes that have gone missing over the years, as Norman Tebbit and I keep reminding people, might come marching back and Dave returns to No10 with the sort of misty eyed engineered reception that greeted Blair. Like that's going to happen.
If he's not even in number 10 after May then the knives will be out fresh from the sharpener.
I agree the odds on an outright win look low, but if the Tories are the biggest party and form a govt I don't think he will be oustedIf the Conservative party fails to win an outright majority, which they haven't done for 23 years now, then there will be intense pressure to do what the Conservative party always does when they're disappointed. The current most likely outcome is that they won't win an outright victory.
Frankly I don't give a stuff for the polling which suggests that Cameron is not quite as lousy as all the others; that is, in this context a repetitive diversionary tactic.
He knows this, namely what will happen after another failure by the Tory party; his I won't go for a third term is an attempt to stave off the fateful day. He may be successful in that, I suspect he won't be.
People don't have to agree, that is fine; it may be wrong but one believed to be a distinct possibility. It's also a possibility that the millions of Tory votes that have gone missing over the years, as Norman Tebbit and I keep reminding people, might come marching back and Dave returns to No10 with the sort of misty eyed engineered reception that greeted Blair. Like that's going to happen.
If he's not even in number 10 after May then the knives will be out fresh from the sharpener.
And at the moment you'd have to say it is about 50-50 for the Tories forming the next govt. I know the bookies rate it better but the polls look 50-50
Interesting article by Finkestein today in Times about the lost voters- the Yes, Yes, Nos:
Those who think Cameron makes a better PM than Milliband
Those who think Tory Economic policies are better for UK
But still will not vote Tory
Populus chief polled 10,000 people and found that 18% fall into this category for a variety of reasons (some of course because they are voting UKIP). Don't have to get much of that 18% for the Tories to win, which is lucky as most of them will be hard to convert. Can they? Who knows
So in analysis the only counter to my supposition is an opinion that he won't be ousted if he manages to stay as PM but in coalition. Which was already dealt with as a clear possibility in my post. All other possibilities, apart from a Blairesque tickertape entrance to Downing St will be knives out.
They're even now quietly briefing against him not serving a full 2nd term, even if only due to practicalities approaching 2020GE.
But we shall see.
They're even now quietly briefing against him not serving a full 2nd term, even if only due to practicalities approaching 2020GE.
But we shall see.
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