So how many seats will UKIP achieve come May 7th ?

So how many seats will UKIP achieve come May 7th ?

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MGJohn

Original Poster:

10,203 posts

183 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
quotequote all
Been checking several on-line bookies odds for the UKIP seats betting. There's a wide spread of odds and totals but, the core of all that is the bookies believe UKIP will get less than four seats. 0-3 Seats being odds on favourite.

Four or more seats @ 13/8 appeals to me. Then again I have a hunch for a number of reasons that they will exceed the forecast expectations. So, 4-5 Seats @ 100-30 ( Thirty quid wins you one hundred so £130 total return ). 6 to 10 UKIP seats are 5-1.

How do others see this UKIP total seats forecast? I have a strong hunch there will be a turn up ... for the bookies and to the delight of UKIP.

evo4a

737 posts

181 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
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lots of votes, not many seats is my feeling

Jon321

2,806 posts

188 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
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Less than there are threads about them.

Newc

1,865 posts

182 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
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I'll give you 10 to 1 on five or more seats.

Actual answer to your question is definitely one, maybe two, and if they are very lucky they might maybe possibly just scrape three.

wolves_wanderer

12,387 posts

237 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
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I said 2 in this thread and I stand by that. Farage and Carswell

IainT

10,040 posts

238 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
quotequote all
3 or less with 11-13% of the vote. Utterly undemocratic imo and I really don't want UKIP to have any significant power. 13% of the vote should equate to 13% of the MPs.

MGJohn

Original Poster:

10,203 posts

183 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
quotequote all
Newc said:
I'll give you 10 to 1 on five or more seats.

Actual answer to your question is definitely one, maybe two, and if they are very lucky they might maybe possibly just scrape three.
OK, I'll take that 10-1 five or more for a fiver or tenner. Easy money for you. Please confirm. Keep me awake when the results start coming in.... thumbup

Axionknight

8,505 posts

135 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
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Isn't there already a thread on this, and a thread on UKIP?

Plus a general election thread too?

Esseesse

8,969 posts

208 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
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Matthew Goodwin recently said 6 (IIRC if not maybe 5).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vrw7hns1cbw

Mark Benson

7,514 posts

269 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
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More than their detractors think, fewer than their fanboys think.

MGJohn

Original Poster:

10,203 posts

183 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
quotequote all
BLUKIP is 50-1 ... ( Tory-UKIP Co.) ... smile

Newc

1,865 posts

182 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
quotequote all
MGJohn said:
Newc said:
I'll give you 10 to 1 on five or more seats.

Actual answer to your question is definitely one, maybe two, and if they are very lucky they might maybe possibly just scrape three.
OK, I'll take that 10-1 five or more for a fiver or tenner. Easy money for you. Please confirm. Keep me awake when the results start coming in.... thumbup
You are done at a tenner. As I suspect the mods don't yet have a gaming licence, I look forward to a photo of your donation receipt to Liberty or Amnesty on 8 May.

oyster

12,595 posts

248 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
quotequote all
IainT said:
3 or less with 11-13% of the vote. Utterly undemocratic imo and I really don't want UKIP to have any significant power. 13% of the vote should equate to 13% of the MPs.
How would you get local representation then?

Einion Yrth

19,575 posts

244 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
quotequote all
oyster said:
IainT said:
3 or less with 11-13% of the vote. Utterly undemocratic imo and I really don't want UKIP to have any significant power. 13% of the vote should equate to 13% of the MPs.
How would you get local representation then?
MMP?

IainT

10,040 posts

238 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
quotequote all
oyster said:
IainT said:
3 or less with 11-13% of the vote. Utterly undemocratic imo and I really don't want UKIP to have any significant power. 13% of the vote should equate to 13% of the MPs.
How would you get local representation then?
How do you now?

You don't always get the MP you voted for and often MPs are only local because they were parachuted into a safe seat with no real local attachment. You'd still have an MP for your local constituency who would still have responsibility of representing all voters there. Just like now.

Do you think that PR is more flawed than our current system?

MGJohn

Original Poster:

10,203 posts

183 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
quotequote all
Newc said:
MGJohn said:
Newc said:
I'll give you 10 to 1 on five or more seats.

Actual answer to your question is definitely one, maybe two, and if they are very lucky they might maybe possibly just scrape three.
OK, I'll take that 10-1 five or more for a fiver or tenner. Easy money for you. Please confirm. Keep me awake when the results start coming in.... thumbup
You are done at a tenner. As I suspect the mods don't yet have a gaming licence, I look forward to a photo of your donation receipt to Liberty or Amnesty on 8 May.
We have a deal. A tenner it is... smile

irocfan

40,429 posts

190 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
quotequote all
I think that if UKIP got 10 seats it would be all their Christmases come at once... if they get 5 they'll have exceeded expectations and would deserve a pat on the back