ISIS - Stronger than Anticipated?

ISIS - Stronger than Anticipated?

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Four Litre

Original Poster:

2,013 posts

191 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-...

They have been around for a while now and show no sign of letting up anytime soon.

So the Iraqi army with air support from USA, Saudi and Im sure other Eurpoean counrties still manage to win a battle for a key Iraqi city!!!!

Is it only me that thinks they will can only be defeated in a full scale ground war which nobody wants to partake in. I can imagine in 5 years as ISIS numbers grow there will be a lot of people questioning why nobody acted when we had the chance...


Maxf

8,402 posts

240 months

Monday 18th May 2015
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What do you do though? If there is a ground war, they will adopt the normal tactics of the hit and run, IEDs and simply putting down their weapons and being 'shepherds' if not in an actual firefight.

There isn't the appetite in the west to do what would need doing to completely stop ISIS - it would make terrible headlines, have massive civilian casualties and huge amounts of collateral damage; probably serving to recruit more from abroad, although they'd probably stay 'at home' and cause problems for us here.

The world is a very different place to even 15 years ago, and I'm not sure we can put the genie back in the bottle - regardless of how much c4 we use.


Elroy Blue

8,686 posts

191 months

Monday 18th May 2015
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I think it's more a case of an inept, useless Iraqi army with corrupt leadership

Asterix

24,438 posts

227 months

Monday 18th May 2015
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Elroy Blue said:
I think it's more a case of an inept, useless Iraqi army with corrupt leadership
This, and no coherent joined up thinking from the rest of the others.

There's no single leader with a clear strategy.

Grumfutock

5,274 posts

164 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
I would point out there is already a full scale ground war going on against them. Iraqi forces with the aid of Iranian back militia are fighting hard against ISIS and have been fir some time.

The problem in Iraq is that ISIS move and concentrate force quickly, switching from city to city. This catches Iraqi troops by surprise and they are slow to mass and react. Additionally ISIS are operating in Sunni areas which are supportive of them so that aids their efforts considerably.

They cannot be dismissed yet but ISIS are a lot weaker than they were 12 months ago if you take the time to look at the real situation and facts rather than the sensational media headlines.

Four Litre

Original Poster:

2,013 posts

191 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Grumfutock said:
I would point out there is already a full scale ground war going on against them. Iraqi forces with the aid of Iranian back militia are fighting hard against ISIS and have been fir some time.

The problem in Iraq is that ISIS move and concentrate force quickly, switching from city to city. This catches Iraqi troops by surprise and they are slow to mass and react. Additionally ISIS are operating in Sunni areas which are supportive of them so that aids their efforts considerably.

They cannot be dismissed yet but ISIS are a lot weaker than they were 12 months ago if you take the time to look at the real situation and facts rather than the sensational media headlines.
Just out of interest where do you look at for information on the real situation and facts? Is there an ISIS Press office?

Grumfutock

5,274 posts

164 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Four Litre said:
Just out of interest where do you look at for information on the real situation and facts? Is there an ISIS Press office?
Use a variety of news feeds and sift the sensational from real.

Also having access to people in the country and various world military helps smile


For me the bigger concern over ISIS is the Shia militia once this is finished. You will have big groups of heavily armed people who's loyalties may lay along sectarian lines and who may owe a loyalty to Iran rather than Iraq and an official military trying to restore peace, stability and order. I predict a major cluster f**k in a year or two.

Timmy40

12,915 posts

197 months

Monday 18th May 2015
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I do sometimes wonder if the strategy in the West hasn't been to allow ISIS to flourish as it's better to have nutters from here leaving the West and going to do insane things over there, than have them stay here to try and do those things here. As I understand it the Western volunteers are generally used as canon fodder so I think it might be seen as a good way of getting rid.

trashbat

6,005 posts

152 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Four Litre said:
Is it only me that thinks they will can only be defeated in a full scale ground war which nobody wants to partake in. I can imagine in 5 years as ISIS numbers grow there will be a lot of people questioning why nobody acted when we had the chance...
I know what we could do!

To try and counter a loose group of people whose very existence sprung out of the massive vacuum we created by dismantling Iraq & numerous other dusty destinations with half-successful military action but near zero long term plan for stability, we could try and defeat them in...

...a ground war!



Oakey

27,523 posts

215 months

Monday 18th May 2015
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Asterix said:
There's no single leader with a clear strategy.
What's needed is someone who is ruthless, someone who will lead with an iron grip. Someone not afraid to get things done, who will send a strong message, perhaps by throwing members of ISIS into plastic shredders for example?

Oh... wait...

fido

16,752 posts

254 months

Monday 18th May 2015
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Oakey said:
Asterix said:
There's no single leader with a clear strategy.
What's needed is someone who is ruthless, someone who will lead with an iron grip. Someone not afraid to get things done, who will send a strong message, perhaps by throwing members of ISIS into plastic shredders for example?

Oh... wait...
This is why democracy cannot evolve in that region until islamo-politics evolves beyond the 15th century. Until then only dictators can keep a grip on the separate factions. Though why the West keeps getting involved and destabilising the area by removing these dictators also puzzles me.

Grumfutock

5,274 posts

164 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
I would also point out that all intelligence points to ISIS wants the west to put boots on the ground so they can portray it as a crusade and add credence to their claim that it is a religious war. Basically what you are seeing is a Shia versus Sunni civil war.

Asterix

24,438 posts

227 months

Monday 18th May 2015
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Very civil indeed.

Timmy40

12,915 posts

197 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Grumfutock said:
I would also point out that all intelligence points to ISIS wants the west to put boots on the ground so they can portray it as a crusade and add credence to their claim that it is a religious war. Basically what you are seeing is a Shia versus Sunni civil war.
Yes. I think so far the West is doing exactly the right thing, no boots on the ground, allow the area to act as an idiot sink to draw out the nutters from the West into the open, and into a place where they are unlikely to return from. Basically it's a big, hot, dry empty sandpit that they can be corralled into.

Chimune

3,159 posts

222 months

Monday 18th May 2015
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Grumfutock said:
I would also point out that all intelligence points to ISIS wants the west to put boots on the ground so they can portray it as a crusade and add credence to their claim that it is a religious war. Basically what you are seeing is a Shia versus Sunni civil war.
This.

AA999

5,180 posts

216 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
As long as Saddam is not in power then all is good right? Good one Bush bandit

I.S. seem to be a well organised army that have a strategy and tactics to employ.
Funded initially by the UK, USA and others, and having an interesting array of U.S. military hardware at hand.

Western countries blindly following the USA's foreign policy is not playing out very well is it.

That being said, I think its fair to say that I.S. are in no way a match for any ground conflict with the west. If the west is serious about purging the middle east of I.S. then a large scale swift sweep across their territory removing all military personnel and hardware would see a quick result would it not?
It doesn't have to be a half-arshed long term counter-offensive that would see a huge waste of time and money.






Elroy Blue

8,686 posts

191 months

Monday 18th May 2015
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It doesn't help that the Iraqi army keep gifting them hundreds of tons of weapons and thousands of vehicles. IS have just seized a massive arms warehouse in Ramadi, filled with brand new kit. No attempt was made to destroy it.

trashbat

6,005 posts

152 months

Monday 18th May 2015
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AA999 said:
That being said, I think its fair to say that I.S. are in no way a match for any ground conflict with the west. If the west is serious about purging the middle east of I.S. then a large scale swift sweep across their territory removing all military personnel and hardware would see a quick result would it not?
It doesn't have to be a half-arshed long term counter-offensive that would see a huge waste of time and money.
You say 'military personnel' like you expect them to have uniforms. They don't.

Most of the kit in Iraq is there because the Americans left it there, either via abandonment or deliberately leaving it in the hands of a fragile Iraqi army that then - to everyone's great surprise - either collapsed or directly turned into ISIS. Unless you try again yourself, with no delegation, and take your litter home with you this time, it seems like the problems of intervention would be easily repeated.

That's to say nothing of the fact that whilst you might - at a push - be able to destroy all the misappropriated big ticket items like HMMWVs etc, then short of a really big magnet, you're not going to recover all the weapons and ammunition, and that plus a few Hiluxes is all that it takes to gain territory in this much of a broken country with this much of a power vacuum.

Grumfutock

5,274 posts

164 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Timmy40 said:
Yes. I think so far the West is doing exactly the right thing, no boots on the ground, allow the area to act as an idiot sink to draw out the nutters from the West into the open, and into a place where they are unlikely to return from. Basically it's a big, hot, dry empty sandpit that they can be corralled into.
Far more fighters from the Middle East and Africa than the West. As I already stated earlier, try not to beleive all the media scare mongering and hokum.

Timmy40

12,915 posts

197 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Grumfutock said:
Timmy40 said:
Yes. I think so far the West is doing exactly the right thing, no boots on the ground, allow the area to act as an idiot sink to draw out the nutters from the West into the open, and into a place where they are unlikely to return from. Basically it's a big, hot, dry empty sandpit that they can be corralled into.
Far more fighters from the Middle East and Africa than the West. As I already stated earlier, try not to beleive all the media scare mongering and hokum.
It's not about numbers, it's only needs 100 idiots to create real trouble over here. I'd far rather the radicalised sodded off over there to play and die. By all accounts several thousand of them have gone, I couldn't care less if 10 times, or 100 times that number have gone over from Africa. And the ones who are now trying to come back have made themselves very obvious to the authorities.