Intersting stats

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covboy

Original Poster:

2,573 posts

173 months

Tuesday 30th June 2015
quotequote all
I know figures can be manipulated, but some interesting ones here - especially those concerning accumulation of points


http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news...

Nimby

4,572 posts

149 months

Tuesday 30th June 2015
quotequote all
Men drive twice as many miles as women on average ( it says here) but only have 28% more points, so are clearly better drivers (or better at not getting caught, which may well be the same thing).

aw51 121565

4,771 posts

232 months

Tuesday 30th June 2015
quotequote all
"Women aged 32 hold the most points among female drivers", it says.

Be interesting to see if they write "women aged 36 hold the most points among female drivers" in June 2019... It's a soundbite, it's meaningless on its own. As is most of the rest of the article.

Perhaps, for female drivers in the city, the 'age' with the highest number of drivers is 32 scratchchin ; it would be useful to test this against the quote above.

konark

1,088 posts

118 months

Wednesday 1st July 2015
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Sorry, I'm now reading the article and all posts in a brummie accent!

55palfers

5,892 posts

163 months

Wednesday 1st July 2015
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Ar yaw?

Moonhawk

10,730 posts

218 months

Wednesday 1st July 2015
quotequote all
Nimby said:
Men drive twice as many miles as women on average ( it says here) but only have 28% more points, so are clearly better drivers (or better at not getting caught, which may well be the same thing).
Yep this. The total number of points is a meaningless statistic unless all else is equal.

We know all else isn't equal. Men drive more miles and for longer times.

What should be quoted is points per 10,000 miles or points per 1000 hours.

Ridiculous meeja soundbyte.

flemke

22,864 posts

236 months

Wednesday 1st July 2015
quotequote all
covboy said:
I know figures can be manipulated, but some interesting ones here - especially those concerning accumulation of points


http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news...
Whatever ace reporter wrote the article should probably retake maths, or English comprehension.

Birmingham Mail said:
Males in the city currently have amassed a total of 1.51 MILLION penalty points for driving offences.

While women drivers – often the subject of jokes and chauvinism – have 1.18 million points.

On average men have 1.1 points on their driving licence, with women accruing 1.04 in the city.
If men have amassed "a total of 1.51 million penalty points", for an average of 1.1 points per driver, that means that in Birmingham there are 1.37 million male drivers.
Doing a similar calculation, according to the article's numbers Birmingham has 1.13 million female drivers.
Therefore, according to the article's numbers, there are 2.5 million Birmingham drivers.

The entire population of Birmingham, which of course will include children and non-driving adults, is 1.1 million people.

About 55% of UK population hold a driving licence. The % for B'ham is probably lower owing to its demographics but, even assuming the same 55%, that gets us to a total of 600,000 drivers in Birmingham.

If 55% of those are male, that is a total of roughly 330,000 B'ham drivers who have 1.51 million penalty points. The male drivers would on average each have 4.5 points, not "1.1". The number for women would be 4.2 points.

covboy

Original Poster:

2,573 posts

173 months

Wednesday 1st July 2015
quotequote all
flemke said:
If men have amassed "a total of 1.51 million penalty points", for an average of 1.1 points per driver, that means that in Birmingham there are 1.37 million male drivers.
Doing a similar calculation, according to the article's numbers Birmingham has 1.13 million female drivers.
Therefore, according to the article's numbers, there are 2.5 million Birmingham drivers.

The entire population of Birmingham, which of course will include children and non-driving adults, is 1.1 million people.

About 55% of UK population hold a driving licence. The % for B'ham is probably lower owing to its demographics but, even assuming the same 55%, that gets us to a total of 600,000 drivers in Birmingham.

If 55% of those are male, that is a total of roughly 330,000 B'ham drivers who have 1.51 million penalty points. The male drivers would on average each have 4.5 points, not "1.1". The number for women would be 4.2 points.
Just a minor point, but the stats provided would probably include everyone within the “B” postcode of the area, which includes a lot of other areas well outside of Birmingham (speaking as one of the statistics who doesn’t live in Birmingham)


over_the_hill

3,185 posts

245 months

Wednesday 1st July 2015
quotequote all
covboy said:
flemke said:
If men have amassed "a total of 1.51 million penalty points", for an average of 1.1 points per driver, that means that in Birmingham there are 1.37 million male drivers.
Doing a similar calculation, according to the article's numbers Birmingham has 1.13 million female drivers.
Therefore, according to the article's numbers, there are 2.5 million Birmingham drivers.

The entire population of Birmingham, which of course will include children and non-driving adults, is 1.1 million people.

About 55% of UK population hold a driving licence. The % for B'ham is probably lower owing to its demographics but, even assuming the same 55%, that gets us to a total of 600,000 drivers in Birmingham.

If 55% of those are male, that is a total of roughly 330,000 B'ham drivers who have 1.51 million penalty points. The male drivers would on average each have 4.5 points, not "1.1". The number for women would be 4.2 points.
Just a minor point, but the stats provided would probably include everyone within the “B” postcode of the area, which includes a lot of other areas well outside of Birmingham (speaking as one of the statistics who doesn’t live in Birmingham)
Even if you take the West Midlands conurbation as a whole the population is only about 2.5 million total
Looks as if t hey have used this figure but "forgot" that they all don't drive.

flemke

22,864 posts

236 months

Wednesday 1st July 2015
quotequote all
covboy said:
flemke said:
If men have amassed "a total of 1.51 million penalty points", for an average of 1.1 points per driver, that means that in Birmingham there are 1.37 million male drivers.
Doing a similar calculation, according to the article's numbers Birmingham has 1.13 million female drivers.
Therefore, according to the article's numbers, there are 2.5 million Birmingham drivers.

The entire population of Birmingham, which of course will include children and non-driving adults, is 1.1 million people.

About 55% of UK population hold a driving licence. The % for B'ham is probably lower owing to its demographics but, even assuming the same 55%, that gets us to a total of 600,000 drivers in Birmingham.

If 55% of those are male, that is a total of roughly 330,000 B'ham drivers who have 1.51 million penalty points. The male drivers would on average each have 4.5 points, not "1.1". The number for women would be 4.2 points.
Just a minor point, but the stats provided would probably include everyone within the “B” postcode of the area, which includes a lot of other areas well outside of Birmingham (speaking as one of the statistics who doesn’t live in Birmingham)
Could be, but...

Population of entire "B" postcode is IRO 2.2m. If 55% of them have UK licence (owing to local demographics, I suspect that actual % is lower), that would give us 1.2m licence holders.
Using the author's number of 2.5m total points, that is still more than 2 points average per driver - more than twice as many as what he calculated.

btcc123

1,243 posts

146 months

Wednesday 1st July 2015
quotequote all
flemke said:
covboy said:
flemke said:
If men have amassed "a total of 1.51 million penalty points", for an average of 1.1 points per driver, that means that in Birmingham there are 1.37 million male drivers.
Doing a similar calculation, according to the article's numbers Birmingham has 1.13 million female drivers.
Therefore, according to the article's numbers, there are 2.5 million Birmingham drivers.

The entire population of Birmingham, which of course will include children and non-driving adults, is 1.1 million people.

About 55% of UK population hold a driving licence. The % for B'ham is probably lower owing to its demographics but, even assuming the same 55%, that gets us to a total of 600,000 drivers in Birmingham.

If 55% of those are male, that is a total of roughly 330,000 B'ham drivers who have 1.51 million penalty points. The male drivers would on average each have 4.5 points, not "1.1". The number for women would be 4.2 points.
Just a minor point, but the stats provided would probably include everyone within the “B” postcode of the area, which includes a lot of other areas well outside of Birmingham (speaking as one of the statistics who doesn’t live in Birmingham)
Could be, but...

Population of entire "B" postcode is IRO 2.2m. If 55% of them have UK licence (owing to local demographics, I suspect that actual % is lower), that would give us 1.2m licence holders.
Using the author's number of 2.5m total points, that is still more than 2 points average per driver - more than twice as many as what he calculated.
The stats are for how many points have been issued in the Birmingham area.The 2.5 million points have not been issued to Birminghan resedents only as other motorists are allowed to use the roads so your average of more than 2 points average is a load of tosh.

Moonhawk

10,730 posts

218 months

Wednesday 1st July 2015
quotequote all
The whole report is a load of tosh. It may as well have said "Eskimo drivers are better than white British drivers because they accrued fewer points overall".

The total number of points given out to men vs women means nothing unless we factor out:

  • What's the proportion of drivers from each gender in that area?
  • How far or how long drivers of each sex have driven for? Given equal levels or incompetence or non compliance with driving rules, driving for a longer time or over a greater distance naturally increases the probability you will be caught.
  • What time of day are the genders driving and does this timing correspond with times of increased enforcement on behalf of the police. Is one gender more likely to be out on the road at the same time as BIB and hence more likely to be spotted circumventing driving rules?
  • Is there a difference in the type of roads the genders are driving on. Is one gender more likely to be driving on roads that have greater level of enforcement (cameras, spot checks etc).
  • Are the police more likely to stop a car when driven by one gender over another? When handing out FPNs, are they more likely to let one or other gender off with just a verbal warning? Cameras may be gender neutral - but are the BIB?
There are probably many more factors that also need to be considered.

flemke

22,864 posts

236 months

Wednesday 1st July 2015
quotequote all
btcc123 said:
flemke said:
covboy said:
flemke said:
If men have amassed "a total of 1.51 million penalty points", for an average of 1.1 points per driver, that means that in Birmingham there are 1.37 million male drivers.
Doing a similar calculation, according to the article's numbers Birmingham has 1.13 million female drivers.
Therefore, according to the article's numbers, there are 2.5 million Birmingham drivers.

The entire population of Birmingham, which of course will include children and non-driving adults, is 1.1 million people.

About 55% of UK population hold a driving licence. The % for B'ham is probably lower owing to its demographics but, even assuming the same 55%, that gets us to a total of 600,000 drivers in Birmingham.

If 55% of those are male, that is a total of roughly 330,000 B'ham drivers who have 1.51 million penalty points. The male drivers would on average each have 4.5 points, not "1.1". The number for women would be 4.2 points.
Just a minor point, but the stats provided would probably include everyone within the “B” postcode of the area, which includes a lot of other areas well outside of Birmingham (speaking as one of the statistics who doesn’t live in Birmingham)
Could be, but...

Population of entire "B" postcode is IRO 2.2m. If 55% of them have UK licence (owing to local demographics, I suspect that actual % is lower), that would give us 1.2m licence holders.
Using the author's number of 2.5m total points, that is still more than 2 points average per driver - more than twice as many as what he calculated.
The stats are for how many points have been issued in the Birmingham area.The 2.5 million points have not been issued to Birminghan resedents only as other motorists are allowed to use the roads so your average of more than 2 points average is a load of tosh.
It is entirely possible that your explanation of the actual numbers is correct. That explanation is not, however, what the newspaper said:

Birmingham Mail headline said:
Revealed: How Brummie men are worse than women on the city's roads
Furthermore, to get an "average", they had to determine the total number of drivers who had amassed the total number of points.
How could anyone possibly determine how many separate people drove in Birmingham in a given period?


scratchchin

Jonsv8

7,175 posts

123 months

Wednesday 1st July 2015
quotequote all
flemke said:
Furthermore, to get an "average", they had to determine the total number of drivers who had amassed the total number of points.
How could anyone possibly determine how many separate people drove in Birmingham in a given period?


scratchchin
Unless it's the average points of those who were done

I can't be arsed to read the article as I agree with the principal of shoddy journalism and maths.

But then I never understood why newspapers used to include competitions where you got 5 chances to win. If everyone hit 5 chances the odds are presumably no different to everyone getting one chance.

People sell raffle tickets the same way... £1 a strip... But you have to buy in multiples of whole strips.

And as I'm moaning.. Where I used to work 8oz coffee was £1.20, 12oz was £1.39 and 16os was £1.59. Ie +19 then +20

And... In a pub, 250ml glass of wine is 4.99 or the bottle for 14.99...


Jonsv8

7,175 posts

123 months

Thursday 2nd July 2015
quotequote all
flemke said:
It couldn't be the average points of those who were done.

The article says that the average number of points for men was 1.1 and for women 1.04. To get to that sort of average, almost all of the measured population would have to be on 1 point.
I don't know whether it is even possible to be on 1 point, but at most it would be exceedingly rare. Almost everyone, if not literally everyone, who has points has at least 3 points.
In practice, the only way that the calculation could have been 1.1 or 1.04 was if more than half of the measured population was on zero points.
Fair point

In a similar way if the average was say 1 point, that would mean between 10 and 33% of all drivers have points (as the average points for those with points is likely to be between 3 and 10). The lower the average the more that must have points. That seems pretty high too.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploa...

This says 4% of drivers have speeding convictions

Edit: even better
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploa...

Quick google also threw up this foi request

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploa...



Edited by Jonsv8 on Thursday 2nd July 06:48


Edited by Jonsv8 on Thursday 2nd July 06:50

flemke

22,864 posts

236 months

Thursday 2nd July 2015
quotequote all
Jonsv8 said:
flemke said:
Furthermore, to get an "average", they had to determine the total number of drivers who had amassed the total number of points.
How could anyone possibly determine how many separate people drove in Birmingham in a given period?


scratchchin
Unless it's the average points of those who were done

I can't be arsed to read the article as I agree with the principal of shoddy journalism and maths.
It couldn't be the average points of those who were done.

The article says that the average number of points for men was 1.1 and for women 1.04. To get to that sort of average, if everyone in the measured population had points, almost all of that population would have to be on 1 point.
I don't know whether it is even possible to be on 1 point, but at most it would be exceedingly rare. Almost everyone, if not literally everyone, who has points has at least 3 points.
In practice, the only way that the calculated result could have been 1.1 or 1.04 would have been if more than half of the measured population were on zero points.

majordad

3,600 posts

196 months

Thursday 2nd July 2015
quotequote all
Only one more post Flemke til you break 20,000. Good luck and keep posting.

7db

6,058 posts

229 months

Thursday 2nd July 2015
quotequote all
flemke said:
It couldn't be the average points of those who were done.
Does it say average for male drivers or average for men?

flemke

22,864 posts

236 months

Friday 3rd July 2015
quotequote all
7db said:
flemke said:
It couldn't be the average points of those who were done.
Does it say average for male drivers or average for men?
The former. For example:
Birmingham Mail said:
On average men have 1.1 points on their driving licence, with women accruing 1.04 in the city.
Throughout the piece, they clearly are referring to persons with driving licences, rather than to all adults (although most adults do have driving licences).