TDF 15

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okgo

Original Poster:

37,841 posts

197 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
I think this deserves a specific thread in this forum as the sports one tends to be quite general...

Reading yesterday that the course was actually longer than quoted so the avg speed wasn't in fact record breaking? Either way that was a big ride from Dennis, massive in fact.

Looking forward to the first week, rain, cobbles etc, I personally think this is the only part of the tour that favours Nibali, I suspect he might be out the back come a mountain - Quintana did a pretty decent TT despite all the doom mongering about what he might lose, 1 min down for a bloke weighing under 60kg aint bad in my book!

Interestingly I see the usual suspects on twitter calling out various performances that must be superhuman, in fact some IAM cycling bloke tweeted about doing 390W and getting smashed to bits, this was re-tweeted by Digger Forum and such, sad that many people seem to think whatever these people say is gospel!

Anyway - I think Froome will win, he has a great team and no reason not to be in great shape...

What does Pedal Powered think?

Johno

8,401 posts

281 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
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Of the big four ....

Movistar have got to protect Quintana like crazy for the first week, strong team, but difficult first week and he's an out and out climber. With the side winds, a split plus the smallish loss on the TT could give him too much of a gap to catch up.

Nibali has done exactly as he did last year in terms of prep, looked fantastic on one stage of the Dauphine and then disappeared. Perhaps he was testing himself and seemed he was using it as a build up event, but not sure if he can really be written off completely yet - I do wish Astana would at least get rid of Vinokourov, his repeated infractions just mean they have no credibility as a team as soon as he opens his mouth. He's not the sole example I recognise, but he somehow epitomises an issue.

Bertie's legs may struggle in wk3 or he may ride into form, however it is an unknown in modern days racing for it to be straight forward and if the other 3 stay fit, can he really battle all of them. He is tactically very astute and people like Mick Rogers are too on the squad, but I'm struggling to see him in the right sharpe for Alps.

Froome looks lean, fit, strong and stated he'd leave nothing the locker at the Dauphine and although Teejay pushed him, he looked fantastic again. If he makes it through the first week without losing time, crashing into random static objects or other issues then I think he'll be the winner. The squad looks to have the right balance between the big diesel motors like Stannard to the grimpeurs of Porte and Poele.

The French have a few names in there this year, Bardet, Pinault etc and they'll be there or thereabouts, but I still think Froome will conquer.

Cavendish is in great form, so if delivered to the line then against Deggencob, Kristoff and Sagan if the Parcours is flatter to the finish he'll be difficult to beat. The unknown is Boemi after the crash at the nationals.

I'm hoping for big showings from Yates, Dowsett and Cummings although there to do specific roles, if they're let off their roles it would be good to see them stretching their legs. Also the Irish sprinter who picked up the last stage in Qatar??

Overall it is shaping up to be a great race given the overall parcours and should be a close one.

Most names spelt wrongly I'm sure - apologies !!

okgo

Original Poster:

37,841 posts

197 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
Agree with most of that!

I think Yates bros are there to win stages, which should be great, hell, they could even be up there in the GC too, but tough race and not sure how the 3 weekers will tell on them at this stage.

Johno

8,401 posts

281 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
Although the strengths of the big 4 and their teams will play out ultimately, the second tier of van garderan, Pinault, Bardet, Valverde etc could pose real issues as they'll need covering as well.

Of the big teams, who's got the best set to cover the mountains? With so much protection being afforded from Rowe and Stannard etc on the flat, could Froome get exposed later on. Porte's form over the 3wk tour still remains a question mark, but I think Poele's may come into his own....plus others.

Agreed about the Yates bros, as Oreca don't really have a GC contender they'll be hunting breakaways and will be active in the mountains.

Interesting to see also if Veockler's moaning about time penalties killing breakaways plays out. Personally I doubt it, but somehow it takes a little bit away from the purity of the racing for me either way. Just let them get on with it and the clock will do the revealing.

I just hope they all do get through the first week, even with a little bit of time between them as heading into the high passes will then really make the race unfold.

Edited by Johno on Sunday 5th July 12:12

Jimbo.

3,941 posts

188 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
okgo said:
I think this deserves a specific thread in this forum as the sports one tends to be quite general...

Reading yesterday that the course was actually longer than quoted so the avg speed wasn't in fact record breaking? Either way that was a big ride from Dennis, massive in fact.

Looking forward to the first week, rain, cobbles etc, I personally think this is the only part of the tour that favours Nibali, I suspect he might be out the back come a mountain - Quintana did a pretty decent TT despite all the doom mongering about what he might lose, 1 min down for a bloke weighing under 60kg aint bad in my book!

Interestingly I see the usual suspects on twitter calling out various performances that must be superhuman, in fact some IAM cycling bloke tweeted about doing 390W and getting smashed to bits, this was re-tweeted by Digger Forum and such, sad that many people seem to think whatever these people say is gospel!

Anyway - I think Froome will win, he has a great team and no reason not to be in great shape...

What does Pedal Powered think?
Kimmage? The guy's gone bonkers IMO.

re. racing. Sky have a phenomenal line up, and if anyone "can" win it based on the strength of the whole team, it's Froome. I just hope they don't adopt the "get to the front and close the race down" like they did in 2012.

okgo

Original Poster:

37,841 posts

197 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
No, the Skandi bloke, amatiphily or something? And Digger forum - if you want to remain in a steady blood pressure state, probably best to avoid the accounts!

Yes they have a fantastic team, I think 2012 was the only way they could win with Brad, Froome seems fine to attack and ride aggressively which is ideal for the viewer! Though I don't doubt Sky will ride some of the main climbs en masse on the front at a very high pace, that will not be enough to drop everyone this year, unless porte has improved a huge amount I can't see a repeat of when Porte and Froome rode everyone off the wheel on Ax 3 Domaines (sp?) before Froome romped off to win by a huge margin.. Also looks like there are more contenders this time round based on what we have seen of TJVG, Contador, Pinot etc, plus I'm sure Quintana will be strong.

Back to today, I'd love to see what Kirby and Sean are suggesting in terms of a rock hard finish and a win by a classics man like Sep VM or Fabian, but the gale they're talking about on twitter looks like a stiff breeze at best currently - still 100km to go mind you - if it doesn't get that bad then I can't see beyond Cavendish!

okgo

Original Poster:

37,841 posts

197 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
Scrap that - looks proper windy haha!

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
Of the big four, I think Bertie has the strongest team for the mountains, whether he needs it or not is a different matter but it includes Majka, Kreuziger and even Basso!.... Quintana has Valverde, Lopez and Insausti et al. I do think Contador is best rider and tactically the most asture, so I think he will win from Quintana and Froome.

Porte and Roche should be all the support that Froome needs for the mountains as well as Thomas who looks increasingly strong and Konig who rode really well for Net Applast year.. It will be interesting to see how Porte goes though as it seems certain that he will join OGE in 2016 as their GC man. Brailsford was somewhat unimpressed about Porte's performance in the Giro and his comments about the TTT were interesting too, he was focusing on which GC teams had the quickest five riders as he could see some GC contenders losing time on that stage despite a rest day the following day.

I guess stage 10 is the first big test (cobbles and echelons aside!), a long long flat stage before a big summit finish, on Bastille Day too, Roy, Pinot, Bardet, Rolland and Voeckler will all want that one but will one of the GC four also look to put in some time on the others?...

I think Talansky is the dark horse of the others (Mollema, Gesink etc), with riders like Hesjedal, Martin and Navaurdauskas in support Talanksy could definitely feature at the end of the three weeks.

Massively disappointed that Astana started Boom, sums up the credibility of that team perfectly. After the Iglinsky affair, they really should have done the decent thing and dropped Boom but after his win on the cobbles last year I suspect they wanted him for that stage.

My crystal ball says there will be breakaway stage wins for Bakelants, Elmiger and Julien Simon too ..... maybe....



Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 5th July 14:02

v15ben

15,778 posts

240 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
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I don't currently have a TV so was wondering how best to catch up with the TDF in the evenings?
ITV player?

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
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If you have access to a laptop there are loads of live streams available on www.steephill.tv if that helps

Digger

14,588 posts

190 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
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Are the Yates brothers Sean Yates' progeny?

okgo

Original Poster:

37,841 posts

197 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
Digger said:
Are the Yates brothers Sean Yates' progeny?
Nope.

Though all his family do cycle, though none at a level beyond half decent amateur (at the minute, some of his kids are quite young)

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
No relation

The Mad Monk

10,474 posts

116 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
v15ben said:
I don't currently have a TV so was wondering how best to catch up with the TDF in the evenings?
ITV player?
ITV4?

v15ben

15,778 posts

240 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
That was my thought.
Watch ITV4 or ITV Player online.
Thanks for the info on the live streams, but I'm working most of the day and can only watch in the evenings unfortunately.

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
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Someone has really pissed off the puncture pixies....

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
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Boom! Fireworks on stage 2, nibbles and Quintana lose over a minute of Bertie and froome, well deserved from tinkoff and sky who worked hard today.

Fastpedeller

3,846 posts

145 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
okgo said:
Reading yesterday that the course was actually longer than quoted so the avg speed wasn't in fact record breaking?
But wouldn't that make the average speed faster than quoted??

okgo

Original Poster:

37,841 posts

197 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
Sorry yes - shorter!

Digger

14,588 posts

190 months

Sunday 5th July 2015
quotequote all
Anyone else think Cavendish would have stood a better chance if he'd followed wheels on the run in rather than try to power them off his wheel, over-confident possibly?