For sale one barbecue, will swap for snow shoes
Discussion
"A parallel goal is to make clear that a trend to warmer temperatures does not mean that extremes of cold or rainfall are made impossible - instead, weather that seems to buck the prevailing remains on the cards, if less likely as the century progresses."
Oh of course, as they predicted right at the outset when they said snow is a thing of the past....
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls...
Oh of course, as they predicted right at the outset when they said snow is a thing of the past....
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls...
LHRFlightman said:
Having been down to the Met Office in Exeter last week, and seen first hand the new Cray's I can believe this. Particularly as the Cray cabinets have blue neon strip lights to the rear to make them look cool.
Crays have always looked cool. Their early ones looked like futuristic furniture. Well at the time they did. If you look at the same thing now (in the Science Museum for example) it looks about as dated as Captain Kirk's flaired shorts, but one can still appreciate the effort. ATG said:
LHRFlightman said:
Having been down to the Met Office in Exeter last week, and seen first hand the new Cray's I can believe this. Particularly as the Cray cabinets have blue neon strip lights to the rear to make them look cool.
Crays have always looked cool. Their early ones looked like futuristic furniture. Well at the time they did. If you look at the same thing now (in the Science Museum for example) it looks about as dated as Captain Kirk's flaired shorts, but one can still appreciate the effort. PRTVR said:
Agreed an amazing piece of kit, but is flawed by the GIGO problem, it appears we can now get the wrong answer quicker, or the correct answer depending on your point of view.
Not quite. They know all the answers they get are wrong but using a rather convoluted twist of logic they believe the "correct" answer is bounded by the wrong answers they have got so far. The more "runs" of the machine the more "wrong" answers they get so the more confident they are that the right answer is within them. Of course the possibilities far outweigh the numbers of runs even the fastest machines are able to compute and a blindness to their assumptions (that they don't even acknowledge as assumptions) has led to a convergence of model output that has failed to bound even the current observed temperature series.It is as if they have a 6 sided climate dice with values 2,3,4,6,7,8 and has been weighted around the top end - roll it a few times and declare mean values of the runs are moving from 5 to 5.1 and by the end of the century may be 6 or 7.
When in reality the climate dice is 8 sided with values 1-8.
Don't be in too much of a rush.
Spent a snowy afternoon sliding down the hills at a mate's farm a couple of years back; when we finished he'd lit the barbe and we had hot dogs, fried onions and mustard... lovely ... all standing around going "why the hell do we only use these things when it's already bloomin' hot?"
Spent a snowy afternoon sliding down the hills at a mate's farm a couple of years back; when we finished he'd lit the barbe and we had hot dogs, fried onions and mustard... lovely ... all standing around going "why the hell do we only use these things when it's already bloomin' hot?"
Repost, but hey:
First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,
“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/10022...
First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,
“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/10022...
Jinx said:
PRTVR said:
Agreed an amazing piece of kit, but is flawed by the GIGO problem, it appears we can now get the wrong answer quicker, or the correct answer depending on your point of view.
Not quite. They know all the answers they get are wrong but using a rather convoluted twist of logic they believe the "correct" answer is bounded by the wrong answers they have got so far. The more "runs" of the machine the more "wrong" answers they get so the more confident they are that the right answer is within them. Of course the possibilities far outweigh the numbers of runs even the fastest machines are able to compute and a blindness to their assumptions (that they don't even acknowledge as assumptions) has led to a convergence of model output that has failed to bound even the current observed temperature series.It is as if they have a 6 sided climate dice with values 2,3,4,6,7,8 and has been weighted around the top end - roll it a few times and declare mean values of the runs are moving from 5 to 5.1 and by the end of the century may be 6 or 7.
When in reality the climate dice is 8 sided with values 1-8.
That about sums it up. The more they are wrong, the more it proves they are right.
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