Terrible time to buy a house?

[jdw1234]

dxg said:

jdw1234 said:

Neil H said:

fido said:

Axionknight said:

I've been waiting for the crash of DOOOOOOOOM since around 2008 now.

You blinked - it happened in 2009 - even in London. But the gubberment bailed us out.

Nope.




I bought a property in mid-2007, arguably the worst possible time looking at that graph, but if I sold it right now I'd stand to make 50% profit...and the reason:

          Rise in population      Homes built

1971-1981    500,000                 2,922,850

1981-1991    1,000,000               2,128,960

1991-2001    1,700,000               1,864,380

2001-2011    3,500,000               1,875,350

The population increased 6.7m between 1971-2011, but they made 8.8m homes???

It's the rise in households that you want to look at. The ratio of people to houses is falling...

Ah yes. All those east european immigrants buying up period zone 1/2 London property.

[westhamtim]

jdw1234 said:

• Basel 3 likely to result in mortgage rates for BTL materially increasing.

I've seen this mentioned in other house price threads. Which aspect of Basel 3 is going to drive this increase?

[turbobloke]

dxg said:

jdw1234 said:

Neil H said:

fido said:

Axionknight said:

I've been waiting for the crash of DOOOOOOOOM since around 2008 now.

You blinked - it happened in 2009 - even in London. But the gubberment bailed us out.

Nope.




I bought a property in mid-2007, arguably the worst possible time looking at that graph, but if I sold it right now I'd stand to make 50% profit...and the reason:

          Rise in population      Homes built

1971-1981    500,000                 2,922,850

1981-1991    1,000,000               2,128,960

1991-2001    1,700,000               1,864,380

2001-2011    3,500,000               1,875,350

The population increased 6.7m between 1971-2011, but they made 8.8m homes???

It's the rise in households that you want to look at. The ratio of people to houses is falling...

Another issue here is that it's no longer anywhere near true that one person/family has one house/home. In the 2011 census over 1.6 million people owned more than one home, some of that total be second homes and some will be multiple home owners.

[jdw1234]

westhamtim said:

jdw1234 said:

• Basel 3 likely to result in mortgage rates for BTL materially increasing.

I've seen this mentioned in other house price threads. Which aspect of Basel 3 is going to drive this increase?

As I understand - Potentially risk weighted as a "specialist loan" rather than resi so will need more regulatory capital put aside = more cost to bank = interest rates up.

Page 2 of this article:

http://www.ftadviser.com/2015/04/27/mortgages/mort...

[MarshPhantom]

Welshbeef said:

Do we have official stats or graph for house sale volumes?

What I read fairly recently in the press is that mortgage approvals are increasing following a slight lull due to the uncertainties of would labour get in and would Scotland leave.

Why would people not buy a house because Labour might get in?

[Nick Grant]

MarshPhantom said:

Why would people not buy a house because Labour might get in?

Economic uncertainty

[jdw1234]

turbobloke said:

dxg said:

jdw1234 said:

Neil H said:

fido said:

Axionknight said:

I've been waiting for the crash of DOOOOOOOOM since around 2008 now.

You blinked - it happened in 2009 - even in London. But the gubberment bailed us out.

Nope.




I bought a property in mid-2007, arguably the worst possible time looking at that graph, but if I sold it right now I'd stand to make 50% profit...and the reason:

          Rise in population      Homes built

1971-1981    500,000                 2,922,850

1981-1991    1,000,000               2,128,960

1991-2001    1,700,000               1,864,380

2001-2011    3,500,000               1,875,350

The population increased 6.7m between 1971-2011, but they made 8.8m homes???

It's the rise in households that you want to look at. The ratio of people to houses is falling...

Another issue here is that it's no longer anywhere near true that one person/family has one house/home. In the 2011 census over 1.6 million people owned more than one home, some of that total be second homes and some will be multiple home owners.

There are c.27m households in the UK in 2014. There were c.24m in 1996.
There were 6.6m singe person households in 1996 (c.28%). There are now 7.6m (c.28%).

Average household size was 2.42 in 1996 and is 2.38 in 2014.

I don't see how this has caused the significant house price inflation over the same period?

In 2011, there were 26.4m households. I don't see how 6% having more than one house has that much of an impact.

[jdw1234]

Nick Grant said:

MarshPhantom said:

Why would people not buy a house because Labour might get in?

Economic uncertainty

The majority of eastern european immigrants coming into the country were looking to buy £2m+ properties and were worried about the possibility of mansion tax.

[Welshbeef]

MarshPhantom said:

Welshbeef said:

Do we have official stats or graph for house sale volumes?

What I read fairly recently in the press is that mortgage approvals are increasing following a slight lull due to the uncertainties of would labour get in and would Scotland leave.

Why would people not buy a house because Labour might get in?

Um the Mansion tax....

[Neil H]

jdw1234 said:

There are c.27m households in the UK in 2014. There were c.24m in 1996.
There were 6.6m singe person households in 1996 (c.28%). There are now 7.6m (c.28%).

Average household size was 2.42 in 1996 and is 2.38 in 2014.

I don't see how this has caused the significant house price inflation over the same period?

In 2011, there were 26.4m households. I don't see how 6% having more than one house has that much of an impact.

Private rental stock has also increased.

http://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-perspectives-housing-a...

[turbobloke]

jdw1234 said:

turbobloke said:

dxg said:

jdw1234 said:

Neil H said:

fido said:

Axionknight said:

I've been waiting for the crash of DOOOOOOOOM since around 2008 now.

You blinked - it happened in 2009 - even in London. But the gubberment bailed us out.

Nope.




I bought a property in mid-2007, arguably the worst possible time looking at that graph, but if I sold it right now I'd stand to make 50% profit...and the reason:

          Rise in population      Homes built

1971-1981    500,000                 2,922,850

1981-1991    1,000,000               2,128,960

1991-2001    1,700,000               1,864,380

2001-2011    3,500,000               1,875,350

The population increased 6.7m between 1971-2011, but they made 8.8m homes???

It's the rise in households that you want to look at. The ratio of people to houses is falling...

Another issue here is that it's no longer anywhere near true that one person/family has one house/home. In the 2011 census over 1.6 million people owned more than one home, some of that total be second homes and some will be multiple home owners.

There are c.27m households in the UK in 2014. There were c.24m in 1996.
There were 6.6m singe person households in 1996 (c.28%). There are now 7.6m (c.28%).

Average household size was 2.42 in 1996 and is 2.38 in 2014.

I don't see how this has caused the significant house price inflation over the same period? In 2011, there were 26.4m households. I don't see how 6% having more than one house has that much of an impact.

AFAICS there's no claim that the entire extent of house price inflation has been caused that way. The point is that it's an underlying factor that has been present for some time.

With multiple ownership a lot of properties will be empty, so they may be counted as supplied and therefore 'covering off' a household's worth of demand when they do no such thing.

In addition, house prices tend to be sticky, with corrections at times of course, so the long-term underlying effect builds upon other rises from other demand increases including shorter-term e.g. easy mortgages when they're easy.

[MarshPhantom]

Welshbeef said:

MarshPhantom said:

Welshbeef said:

Do we have official stats or graph for house sale volumes?

What I read fairly recently in the press is that mortgage approvals are increasing following a slight lull due to the uncertainties of would labour get in and would Scotland leave.

Why would people not buy a house because Labour might get in?

Um the Mansion tax....

That accounts for about 1 or 2% of the population. What about the rest?

I'd have said it has more to do with the economy still being on it's knees.

[turbobloke]

MarshPhantom said:

Welshbeef said:

MarshPhantom said:

Welshbeef said:

Do we have official stats or graph for house sale volumes?

What I read fairly recently in the press is that mortgage approvals are increasing following a slight lull due to the uncertainties of would labour get in and would Scotland leave.

Why would people not buy a house because Labour might get in?

Um the Mansion tax....

That accounts for about 1 or 2% of the population. What about the rest?

I'd have said it has more to do with the economy still being on it's knees.

The economy being on its knees also ties in neatly with Labour being in office.

Now post-GE and with a Conservative government growth in the economy is the envy of nearly every EU nation and more besides.

[dxg]

turbobloke said:

jdw1234 said:

turbobloke said:

dxg said:

jdw1234 said:

Neil H said:

fido said:

Axionknight said:

I've been waiting for the crash of DOOOOOOOOM since around 2008 now.

You blinked - it happened in 2009 - even in London. But the gubberment bailed us out.

Nope.




I bought a property in mid-2007, arguably the worst possible time looking at that graph, but if I sold it right now I'd stand to make 50% profit...and the reason:

          Rise in population      Homes built

1971-1981    500,000                 2,922,850

1981-1991    1,000,000               2,128,960

1991-2001    1,700,000               1,864,380

2001-2011    3,500,000               1,875,350

The population increased 6.7m between 1971-2011, but they made 8.8m homes???

It's the rise in households that you want to look at. The ratio of people to houses is falling...

Another issue here is that it's no longer anywhere near true that one person/family has one house/home. In the 2011 census over 1.6 million people owned more than one home, some of that total be second homes and some will be multiple home owners.

There are c.27m households in the UK in 2014. There were c.24m in 1996.
There were 6.6m singe person households in 1996 (c.28%). There are now 7.6m (c.28%).

Average household size was 2.42 in 1996 and is 2.38 in 2014.

I don't see how this has caused the significant house price inflation over the same period? In 2011, there were 26.4m households. I don't see how 6% having more than one house has that much of an impact.

AFAICS there's no claim that the entire extent of house price inflation has been caused that way. The point is that it's an underlying factor that has been present for some time.

With multiple ownership a lot of properties will be empty, so they may be counted as supplied and therefore 'covering off' a household's worth of demand when they do no such thing.

In addition, house prices tend to be sticky, with corrections at times of course, so the long-term underlying effect builds upon other rises from other demand increases including shorter-term e.g. easy mortgages when they're easy.

There's also this to think about:


Source: House of Commons Library Briefing Note: "Housing demand and need (England)" Standard Note: SN06921, Last updated: 23 June 2014

which you can politicise and present as this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration...

[Welshbeef]

MarshPhantom said:

That accounts for about 1 or 2% of the population. What about the rest?

I'd have said it has more to do with the economy still being on it's knees.

Which economy are you talking about?

[spreadsheet monkey]

Welshbeef said:

You've not been to (other provincial towns)

A list of places I've been to within the last few weeks - I'm sure they must have nice areas ... but what I saw was utter dives.

But none of those places has crazy house prices like Reading (or other Home Counties commuter towns for that matter). The prices make no sense to me.

If you've got a job in town there, then fair enough, but commuting into London from somewhere like that, jostling for space every day on the fast trains because the stopping trains take forever, paying £5k for an annual ticket... balls to that!

[MarshPhantom]

Welshbeef said:

MarshPhantom said:

That accounts for about 1 or 2% of the population. What about the rest?

I'd have said it has more to do with the economy still being on it's knees.

Which economy are you talking about?

Which do you think?

[MarshPhantom]

turbobloke said:

MarshPhantom said:

Welshbeef said:

MarshPhantom said:

Welshbeef said:

Do we have official stats or graph for house sale volumes?

What I read fairly recently in the press is that mortgage approvals are increasing following a slight lull due to the uncertainties of would labour get in and would Scotland leave.

Why would people not buy a house because Labour might get in?

Um the Mansion tax....

That accounts for about 1 or 2% of the population. What about the rest?

I'd have said it has more to do with the economy still being on it's knees.

The economy being on its knees also ties in neatly with Labour being in office.

Now post-GE and with a Conservative government growth in the economy is the envy of nearly every EU nation and more besides.

Yet the most recent set of figures showed an increase in unemployment of 67,000.

[Welshbeef]

MarshPhantom said:

Welshbeef said:

MarshPhantom said:

That accounts for about 1 or 2% of the population. What about the rest?

I'd have said it has more to do with the economy still being on it's knees.

Which economy are you talking about?

Which do you think?

? Pay attention at the back our country has been in strong economic growth for he last 3 years and the fastest in the developed western world. Even yesterday the last quarter reports huge rise with the view now this year could be a 3% growth.

Have you been on Mars for the last 3+ years?

[turbobloke]

Welshbeef said:

MarshPhantom said:

Welshbeef said:

MarshPhantom said:

That accounts for about 1 or 2% of the population. What about the rest?

I'd have said it has more to do with the economy still being on it's knees.

Which economy are you talking about?

Which do you think?

? Pay attention at the back our country has been in strong economic growth for he last 3 years and the fastest in the developed western world. Even yesterday the last quarter reports huge rise with the view now this year could be a 3% growth.

Have you been on Mars for the last 3+ years?

Possibly MP has been on Planet Mourning for the last 3 months