Is the bubble about to burst?

Is the bubble about to burst?

Author
Discussion

g7jhp

6,959 posts

237 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
fredt said:
Evans didn't start selling cars now, he also sold 10m worth of cars between 2012 and april 2014.And he sold a 250 GT for 18m at one point...

Pretty poor barometer for indicating the top.

I just thing the whole cyclical thing is out the window at the minute, the frenzied printing of cash and ever more cheap credit available to anyone has turned everything on it's head. This I fear will become even more prevalent as debt worldwide is still expanding, and more QE or the equivalence of is the only thing our dear leaders are prepared to do, as their own personal interest is their only interest.

That my view anyway

smile
Well aware that Evans has sold cars previously. I shouldn't have used him as it's a lazy example.

Indications come from many directions, you don't just take one or two, I do believe as many others do that the market is at a peak.



roygarth

2,673 posts

247 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
Market theory suggest that when everyone says a market 'must go down'.....the opposite happens.


Digga

40,206 posts

282 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
Prices in a lot of markets move in levels, rather more than gradually. I think the acid test of prices in general will be what cars - of various sorts - are selling at come next spring.

Bo_apex

2,506 posts

217 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
What Bubble ?
Coveted items always increase over the long term.
House prices double in value approximately every 7 years.

uktrailmonster

4,827 posts

199 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
Bo_apex said:
What Bubble ?
Coveted items always increase over the long term.
House prices double in value approximately every 7 years.
Fill your boots then.

Bo_apex

2,506 posts

217 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
uktrailmonster said:
Fill your boots then.
absolutely smile

kayc

4,492 posts

220 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
Imo the market does look over stretched at the moment and prices will soften a bit short to mid-term..however if you can sit it out and you have one of the rarer models prices will go a lot higher..also if you sell what can you do with the cash?

YoungMD

326 posts

119 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
uktrailmonster said:
fredt said:
I just thing the whole cyclical thing is out the window at the minute, the frenzied printing of cash and ever more cheap credit available to anyone has turned everything on it's head.
I'm not sure about this cheap credit thing. My wife runs an accountancy firm and tells me every day how businesses are now struggling to raise finance. The banks (in the UK at least) are much more cautious now. Even getting a mortgage is a bit of a challenge now.
I wouldn't want to even attempt to predict where the classic car market is heading, but if I had to guess I would say down. But nobody really knows, not me, not you, not the dealers, not the governments, nobody.
Well being an economist I would say good old fashion economics says almost certainly down, every possible economic measure would indicate downward, the difficulty is knowing how much and when, but at best it's a straight line for the next 12 months... And that's free advice
I don't buy cars for investment it would make them seem too much like work not pleasure, but if I did the only porsches I would be buying is 996's or later, or 944's, and maybe an early boxster or two as a wild guess

Digga

40,206 posts

282 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
kayc said:
Imo the market does look over stretched at the moment and prices will soften a bit short to mid-term..however if you can sit it out and you have one of the rarer models prices will go a lot higher..also if you sell what can you do with the cash?
The way I see things right now in the UK, for every person still in the work & mortgage bit of life, who wants/needs to sell a car, there's probably going to be at least another baby boomer about to get their sweaty mitts on a chunk of their pension, with the intent of realising a classic or sports car dream. And that's before you consider any of the still working and paying mortgages population who just think "JFDI" or "YOLO".

mollytherocker

14,365 posts

208 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
I am loving all of the crystal ball gazing 'free advice' on here.

Some of you must be extremely wealthy. hehe

g7jhp

6,959 posts

237 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
Bo_apex said:
What Bubble ?
Coveted items always increase over the long term.
House prices double in value approximately every 7 years.
Not 100% true. It's on average 7-10 year and only in certain regions!

I posted this earlier in the thread as it's worth reading this: The 18 Year Property Cycle and has many parts in common with the classic car market.

"Looking back over past property cycles and in particular the ‘boom times’, well located properties in certain regions doubled [on average] every 7-10 years, but this did not happen in a straight line…
Some years experienced double digit growth and there were other periods when the market was flat on its back or falling."

They still see drops after periods of massive growth and a house is more of a necessity as we live in them and there's a shortage!

roygarth

2,673 posts

247 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
g7jhp said:
and a house is more of a necessity as we live in them and there's a shortage!
My 360CS is a necessity and they only made a thousand of them! smile

g7jhp

6,959 posts

237 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
roygarth said:
g7jhp said:
and a house is more of a necessity as we live in them and there's a shortage!
My 360CS is a necessity and they only made a thousand of them! smile
biggrin

But there are always alternatives with cars, as you demonstrate from going from a P man to an F man! wink

Bo_apex

2,506 posts

217 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
roygarth said:
My 360CS is a necessity and they only made a thousand of them! smile
quite right !

In 1990 I directed the live TV coverage of the Monte Carlo Sotheby's auction. Everyone in the hall thought the market had peaked when a 250 GTO sold for a whisker over £6M.
Seems an incredible bargain now.

g7jhp

6,959 posts

237 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
Bo_apex said:
quite right !

In 1990 I directed the live TV coverage of the Monte Carlo Sotheby's auction. Everyone in the hall thought the market had peaked when a 250 GTO sold for a whisker over £6M.
Seems an incredible bargain now.
Only 39 and probably the best known Blue Chip car is in a different league to the relatively main stream run of the mill cars being discussed!

mollytherocker

14,365 posts

208 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
g7jhp said:
Only 39 and probably the best known Blue Chip car is in a different league to the relatively main stream run of the mill cars being discussed!
True, but its all relative eh?

david hockney

1,198 posts

152 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
E Types were cheap as chips 10 yrs ago. Now a decent series 1 FHC is 70 grand +
and they made over 70,000 E Types-hardly rare....

mollytherocker

14,365 posts

208 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
Any mk1 or mk2 Twin cam engined Escort is what? 100k?

An Escort!!

I remember seeing an RS1800 for sale for £9500 (circa 1992) and laughing till my head fell off. Not laughing now!

supersport

4,040 posts

226 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
david hockney said:
E Types were cheap as chips 10 yrs ago. Now a decent series 1 FHC is 70 grand +
and they made over 70,000 E Types-hardly rare....
Watched an old wheeler dealers last night from 2010 I think, they bought a decent V12 E type for £13K did it up and sold for £18k, very nice.


Edited by supersport on Wednesday 2nd September 22:49

david hockney

1,198 posts

152 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
The biggest turn in prices is ex racing cars-it makes depressing reading with hindsight.
In the early 1970's you could buy 1960's era bashed up ex racing Aston Martins and Jags for about £1500-
no one wanted them......some models are now worth £3m +.
If only my father had bought one of those....instead of a Model T truck