Is the bubble about to burst?
Discussion
I believe these air cooled cars are about to hit their ceiling in terms of value. From that perspective then, I see buying an air cooled 911 as a preserver of wealth rather than an out and out investment item. I think that that ship has sailed now as speculators have maxed it as much as they could. If values do increase, I think they'll be fairly minimal from now on (if at all).
So if anyone want to sell me their 964, I'm happy to buy it. It won't be worth much now hehe
So if anyone want to sell me their 964, I'm happy to buy it. It won't be worth much now hehe
From 1991 through to 2010 you could run an air cooled 911 with the fairly safe knowledge that you would get your money back or make a slight profit without factoring your running costs into that equation. But if you bought wisely the maintenance costs where pretty minimal. Probably one of the cheapest sports cars that you could own.
In the last 5 years the uplift in prices has been phenomenal. At the present pace long hood 911S's will be £500,000, 964 3.6 Turbo's £500,000, 2.7RS £1,500,000 and the 993GT2 £2,000,000. I cannot see this as being sustainable. I'm sure that there are a lot of guys on here that if they really wanted to could find £100 to £150K to put into a classic 911. But not so many that could raise half to a million or then two.
My crystal ball tells me (cough) that the market for high end air cooled stuff has slowed. I think we will see some price correction within the really heavy money stuff. But the rest of the market will remain constant. To buy a very good example of the mark you will still have to pay good money. But I cannot see the market crashing. Certainly not with interest rates remaining at an all time low.
In the mean time let us all enjoy our cars for the engineering marvels that they are
In the last 5 years the uplift in prices has been phenomenal. At the present pace long hood 911S's will be £500,000, 964 3.6 Turbo's £500,000, 2.7RS £1,500,000 and the 993GT2 £2,000,000. I cannot see this as being sustainable. I'm sure that there are a lot of guys on here that if they really wanted to could find £100 to £150K to put into a classic 911. But not so many that could raise half to a million or then two.
My crystal ball tells me (cough) that the market for high end air cooled stuff has slowed. I think we will see some price correction within the really heavy money stuff. But the rest of the market will remain constant. To buy a very good example of the mark you will still have to pay good money. But I cannot see the market crashing. Certainly not with interest rates remaining at an all time low.
In the mean time let us all enjoy our cars for the engineering marvels that they are
graemel said:
From 1991 through to 2010 you could run an air cooled 911 with the fairly safe knowledge that you would get your money back or make a slight profit without factoring your running costs into that equation. But if you bought wisely the maintenance costs where pretty minimal. Probably one of the cheapest sports cars that you could own.
Aircooled cars are only really cheap to run it you don't use them much. Running an air cooled car as a daily can be £2-3k per year (when you to up the bills).Later watercooled cars can actually work out cheaper.
Still not bad compared to an Audi and you're running a Porsche.
Edited by g7jhp on Thursday 3rd September 21:34
Personally, I've bought and sold my (5 over time so far..) 911s because I love the cars and love driving them even more. The fact that they happen "on paper" to have gone up in value only really means my insurance costs have gone up and the double-edged sword of 'er indoors finding out....
Anyway, what I'm curious about is whether people really have bought these cars as "investments" i.e. other than dealers, has anyone actually bought a car just coldly thinking "this will go up" and then taken their profit a year or so later?
I know lots of chaps from DDK,etc but I dont think I know anyone who's actually "cashed in" as it were. I've also heard of a few chaps who have always wanted a porsche and figure its time to get on the bandwagon before its too late.
I'd like to know the extent to which buyers in the market are (a)true "investors" or (b) actually enthusiasts who maybe include the "investment side" in their man maths. My observation, for what its worth, would be entirely the latter so in fact, so is anyone actually truly "investing"? I'd be interested to hear thoughts of others.
cheers
Will
Anyway, what I'm curious about is whether people really have bought these cars as "investments" i.e. other than dealers, has anyone actually bought a car just coldly thinking "this will go up" and then taken their profit a year or so later?
I know lots of chaps from DDK,etc but I dont think I know anyone who's actually "cashed in" as it were. I've also heard of a few chaps who have always wanted a porsche and figure its time to get on the bandwagon before its too late.
I'd like to know the extent to which buyers in the market are (a)true "investors" or (b) actually enthusiasts who maybe include the "investment side" in their man maths. My observation, for what its worth, would be entirely the latter so in fact, so is anyone actually truly "investing"? I'd be interested to hear thoughts of others.
cheers
Will
ASM993 said:
Anyway, what I'm curious about is whether people really have bought these cars as "investments" i.e. other than dealers, has anyone actually bought a car just coldly thinking "this will go up" and then taken their profit a year or so later?
TBH, taking maintenance and servicing into account, you'd be very lucky to.As others say, the play, you pay. One small example from my own limited knowledge; 996 gearboxes. All of them have s
tty gear selectors/syncros that will generally need attention at some point before 100k miles, often sooner. This affects any and all, standard 'cooking' engines and Mezgers alike.g7jhp said:
Compare to typical boom bust cycle graph.
Says it all for me. If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck......You would have to be out of your mind to think this will continue upward indefinitely, especially for the more "ordinary" cars like the 2.4S. Not exactly the stuff of dreams is it?
Digga said:
BH, taking maintenance and servicing into account, you'd be very lucky to.
As others say, the play, you pay. One small example from my own limited knowledge; 996 gearboxes. All of them have stty gear selectors/syncros that will generally need attention at some point before 100k miles, often sooner. This affects any and all, standard 'cooking' engines and Mezgers alike.
Thanks for the reply, I agree that these things can cost fortunes if you actually drive them. That is certainly my experience with classic cars.Blow up any old 911 engine and the rebuild cost is, of course, high. The mag case engines are also renowned for pulling head studs. As others say, the play, you pay. One small example from my own limited knowledge; 996 gearboxes. All of them have s
tty gear selectors/syncros that will generally need attention at some point before 100k miles, often sooner. This affects any and all, standard 'cooking' engines and Mezgers alike.Digga said:
There are always the "bullst bloke down the pub" stories of profit, but most are nothing more than that; stories.
To be fair, anyone who has bought a reasonable classic 911 more than 2 years ago will be sitting on a very tidy potential profit right now. Personally I've only made a serious profit (100%+) on one classic 911 (and that's taking into account all running costs), but I've never lost any money at all on any of them. Not a penny. Price increases have always more or less paid for running costs. Also been lucky not to have any serious mechanical or rust issues which can obviously turn your profit into loss very quickly.t bloke down the pub" stories of profit, but most are nothing more than that; stories.But then I don't go down the pub either.
uktrailmonster said:
g7jhp said:
Compare to typical boom bust cycle graph.
Says it all for me. If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck......You would have to be out of your mind to think this will continue upward indefinitely, especially for the more "ordinary" cars like the 2.4S. Not exactly the stuff of dreams is it?
fredt said:
Easy to overemphasize the importance of some crappy chart dreamt up by some fella on the interwebs. And of course you could take two charts, any two charts, and find obvious similarities depending one how you scale them.
I think you've made it clear that you think that prices are going to keep on climbing for whatever reason, but I find it very hard to ignore classic boom-bust cycles when prices go up this much in such a short time. And no you can't take any two charts and find obvious similarities, that is just nonsense. If prices had been stable or falling or even rising with inflation over the last 10 years, how exactly would you compare that against a boom-bust cycle chart?uktrailmonster said:
I think you've made it clear that you think that prices are going to keep on climbing for whatever reason, but I find it very hard to ignore classic boom-bust cycles when prices go up this much in such a short time. And no you can't take any two charts and find obvious similarities, that is just nonsense. If prices had been stable or falling or even rising with inflation over the last 10 years, how exactly would you compare that against a boom-bust cycle chart?
Not for whatever reason, I've outlined my argument against the bubble bursting any time soon, where as most arguments for the bubble bursting goes "values has risen too fast, they must crash"I said depending on scale. You can of course take any two charts and find sections of them overlapping seemingly perfectly whilst disregarding the rest of the chart. The above being a prime example where you are taking a picture off the internet and comparing it to a chart spanning over 10 years saying they are identical
The economy today is nothing like what we are traditionally used too, there should've been a fairly massive bust 2008 if free markets where allowed to work, but they have been manipulated to f
k since, and I can't see a return to normality anytime soon. A pullback or even a crash would be great, I just can't see it happen.
fredt said:
Not for whatever reason, I've outlined my argument against the bubble bursting any time soon, where as most arguments for the bubble bursting goes "values has risen too fast, they must crash"
I said depending on scale. You can of course take any two charts and find sections of them overlapping seemingly perfectly whilst disregarding the rest of the chart. The above being a prime example where you are taking a picture off the internet and comparing it to a chart spanning over 10 years saying they are identical
The economy today is nothing like what we are traditionally used too, there should've been a fairly massive bust 2008 if free markets where allowed to work, but they have been manipulated to fk since, and I can't see a return to normality anytime soon.
A pullback or even a crash would be great, I just can't see it happen.
Yeah I read your argument about cheap credit. Not very convincing stuff, cheap credit has been around for many years now and has actually tightened up considerably in the very period when classic car prices started going ballistic. Interesting you mention 2008. It's probably because of the enormous stock market crash that people started putting money into alternative investments like classic cars.I said depending on scale. You can of course take any two charts and find sections of them overlapping seemingly perfectly whilst disregarding the rest of the chart. The above being a prime example where you are taking a picture off the internet and comparing it to a chart spanning over 10 years saying they are identical
The economy today is nothing like what we are traditionally used too, there should've been a fairly massive bust 2008 if free markets where allowed to work, but they have been manipulated to f
k since, and I can't see a return to normality anytime soon. A pullback or even a crash would be great, I just can't see it happen.
I guess we'll see in due course what happens, but I'm not risking £150K of my own money on a classic 911 that I could have bought for £20K less than 5 years ago. Makes no sense at all.
uktrailmonster said:
Yeah I read your argument about cheap credit. Not very convincing stuff, cheap credit has been around for many years now and has actually tightened up considerably in the very period when classic car prices started going ballistic. Interesting you mention 2008. It's probably because of the enormous stock market crash that people started putting money into alternative investments like classic cars.
I guess we'll see in due course what happens, but I'm not risking £150K of my own money on a classic 911 that I could have bought for £20K less than 5 years ago. Makes no sense at all.
Cheap consumer credit is running out off steam I agree, the bigger factor is worldwide money printing, which most probably isn't.I guess we'll see in due course what happens, but I'm not risking £150K of my own money on a classic 911 that I could have bought for £20K less than 5 years ago. Makes no sense at all.
Agree 100% the troubles of 2007-2008 is definitely what set the bubble in motion, prime real estate, classic cars etc
But the way I see it the bubble is in cash, and no one wants to hold cash. Cars, houses is just a side effect of this. And I can't foresee a change anytime soon.
All IMHO
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