Will we have Shed in 10 years?
Discussion
It's very easy to boil the decision process down to cash, and yes generally, unless you're very unlucky the cost of repairs on an older modern vehicle, excluding 60s/70s classics and older obviously, is very unlikely to exceed cost of new vehicle and depreciation etc.
However one thing that can't be easily tied down to numbers is reliability and consequences of failure to start plus the availability of backup, not to mention the availability of cash for repairs. If someone requires a vehicle to be 100% reliable or close to that, plus doesn't have a wedge they can drop if, say, the gearbox breaks then the impetus to go for something newer with more definable costs must be tempting.
Having said that as long as there are people who have little capital and little spare money each month then sheds will always exist. Equally as long as there are folks who might not be strapped but don't have worries over the reliability factor there will still be potential for sheds there too.
However one thing that can't be easily tied down to numbers is reliability and consequences of failure to start plus the availability of backup, not to mention the availability of cash for repairs. If someone requires a vehicle to be 100% reliable or close to that, plus doesn't have a wedge they can drop if, say, the gearbox breaks then the impetus to go for something newer with more definable costs must be tempting.
Having said that as long as there are people who have little capital and little spare money each month then sheds will always exist. Equally as long as there are folks who might not be strapped but don't have worries over the reliability factor there will still be potential for sheds there too.
another issue is actually finding someone to do the repairs
I recently scrapped a nice 05 grand Cherokee. local mechanic looked at it diagnosed the approximate problem but said he didn't have the time to work on it (fixable but very time consuming problem). Suggested I take it to a Jeep specialist and helpfully gave me some contact details.
Problem is I don't have the time to shuffle backwards and forwards from one garage to another finding someone willing and able to carry out the work at a sensible price.
Thought about replacing it with a shed but more on time basis than money I have gone for a new lease
I recently scrapped a nice 05 grand Cherokee. local mechanic looked at it diagnosed the approximate problem but said he didn't have the time to work on it (fixable but very time consuming problem). Suggested I take it to a Jeep specialist and helpfully gave me some contact details.
Problem is I don't have the time to shuffle backwards and forwards from one garage to another finding someone willing and able to carry out the work at a sensible price.
Thought about replacing it with a shed but more on time basis than money I have gone for a new lease
Deendog said:
another issue is actually finding someone to do the repairs
I recently scrapped a nice 05 grand Cherokee. local mechanic looked at it diagnosed the approximate problem but said he didn't have the time to work on it (fixable but very time consuming problem). Suggested I take it to a Jeep specialist and helpfully gave me some contact details.
Problem is I don't have the time to shuffle backwards and forwards from one garage to another finding someone willing and able to carry out the work at a sensible price.
Thought about replacing it with a shed but more on time basis than money I have gone for a new lease
As well as finding the skill to fix them, another key problem will be finding the parts to do so. As more and more niche designs (BMW, AUDI's range, anyone) become available, the chances of finding a spare part for them at over ten years old will be massively reduced. There won't been enough commonality for any aftermarket people to produce anything either. I recently scrapped a nice 05 grand Cherokee. local mechanic looked at it diagnosed the approximate problem but said he didn't have the time to work on it (fixable but very time consuming problem). Suggested I take it to a Jeep specialist and helpfully gave me some contact details.
Problem is I don't have the time to shuffle backwards and forwards from one garage to another finding someone willing and able to carry out the work at a sensible price.
Thought about replacing it with a shed but more on time basis than money I have gone for a new lease
Today, for example, I'm having real trouble getting the correct oil filler cap for a car that's only 13 years old. The problem is that it was produced in such small numbers and most of its model-specific parts are already NLA. Imagine that situation in ten years time with the massive diversity of car designs we see now.
SuperHangOn said:
High pressure injectors and DMF's are writing off thousands of otherwise serviceable cars as we speak!
I scrapped a good condition Mondeo TDCI because of the usual gremlins. Sometimes there is just no way around the cost of rebuilding a complex part or labour to fit.
A 2.0 duratec petrol of the same year and mileage would probably have had a good few years of service left. Sometimes there is truth in the doom mongering.
Cars have always been written off though. How old was the Mondeo? 30 years ago cars were being written off at 10 years old by rust. Many engines, boxes etc needed a rebuild by 100k and I remember my dad was told by the Vauxhall dealership that 150k was about the limit for a Mk2 Cavalier. By 120k his was pretty rough.I scrapped a good condition Mondeo TDCI because of the usual gremlins. Sometimes there is just no way around the cost of rebuilding a complex part or labour to fit.
A 2.0 duratec petrol of the same year and mileage would probably have had a good few years of service left. Sometimes there is truth in the doom mongering.
I think the issue today is that people expectations of how long as car should last have changed, possibly because they look to be in good condition. Cars don't leak oil like the used too, interiors are frequently very durable and body work doesn't rust lie it did in the 70s and 80s.
The other thing that has changes is that cars are now relatively cheap. Why bother spending money repairing a 10+ year old car when you can buy one that works and is half the age for 5 grand.
dxg said:
As well as finding the skill to fix them, another key problem will be finding the parts to do so. As more and more niche designs (BMW, AUDI's range, anyone) become available, the chances of finding a spare part for them at over ten years old will be massively reduced. There won't been enough commonality for any aftermarket people to produce anything either.
Today, for example, I'm having real trouble getting the correct oil filler cap for a car that's only 13 years old. The problem is that it was produced in such small numbers and most of its model-specific parts are already NLA. Imagine that situation in ten years time with the massive diversity of car designs we see now.
I suspect that isn't going to be a problem. There may be a diversity of different body shapes and badges but I bet an awful lot of bits come from the parts bin.Today, for example, I'm having real trouble getting the correct oil filler cap for a car that's only 13 years old. The problem is that it was produced in such small numbers and most of its model-specific parts are already NLA. Imagine that situation in ten years time with the massive diversity of car designs we see now.
Consider VW/Audi/Skoda/Seat for example. How many parts are common to multiple models?
Cars here are relatively very cheap (look at the cost of a new car in Denmark, for example once sales tax is taken into account) and labour rates relatively expensive. So cars depreciate quickly to small values, and jobs we think of as "big" are mostly expensive because it needs many hours of someone's time to do, often several times the cost of the parts themselves.
Yes but will they ever be able to make a cheap DPF for example?
The argument seems to run as follows:
-Will we have sheds due to cost of repair?
-Yes, cost of repair will fall it has always been like this the new tech soon becomes old hat.
-Rightly so the comparison is then made with other countries.
However having done a bit of research it seems that many other countries have basic/if no real substantial MOT requirements. The Turkish example is a good one where it seems the MOT comprises checking your brakes and if the car has a fire extinguisher/warning triangle/no fines attached to it.
Since they enhanced the MOT in the UK my sense is many people are keeping sheds on the road via ever more enterprising means ie removing dash warning bulbs which may or may not be spotted, cutting out DPFs etc. Some would see this as ingenuity to keep things moving, others a bit more mumsnet that the rules are the rules and it is highly dangerous.
Regardless it feels like manufacturers make their cars for the wider market and if a few stringent countries' laws make them uneconomic to repair after 10 years so be it.
The argument seems to run as follows:
-Will we have sheds due to cost of repair?
-Yes, cost of repair will fall it has always been like this the new tech soon becomes old hat.
-Rightly so the comparison is then made with other countries.
However having done a bit of research it seems that many other countries have basic/if no real substantial MOT requirements. The Turkish example is a good one where it seems the MOT comprises checking your brakes and if the car has a fire extinguisher/warning triangle/no fines attached to it.
Since they enhanced the MOT in the UK my sense is many people are keeping sheds on the road via ever more enterprising means ie removing dash warning bulbs which may or may not be spotted, cutting out DPFs etc. Some would see this as ingenuity to keep things moving, others a bit more mumsnet that the rules are the rules and it is highly dangerous.
Regardless it feels like manufacturers make their cars for the wider market and if a few stringent countries' laws make them uneconomic to repair after 10 years so be it.
CaptainSlow said:
I disagree. A second owner will look at the expected reliability and value the car accordingly. A lower residual value at the lease end will make the lease more expensive and the first buyer/lessee will vote with their wallet/purse.
Hence my comment of seeing out both the lease deal and second owner sale. 
I am unsure why older cars are thought of as unreliable. Currently have a 10yr old SAAB which has 180000+ miles which I have had for a year, just over shed money, been to Spain twice and has always started when needed even if left for 2 weeks. Returns over 50mpg as well.
Have always had breakdown cover but never needed to use apart from attempted theft, keys locked in car and flat battery due to leaving light on.
Service and maintenance is the key, if you think there is something wrong investigate.
However some people seem unable to check fluids and if they hear a noise just turn the music up. They probably need a lease deal.
Used to work for a hire company and have broken down many times in cars less than a year old.
Have always had breakdown cover but never needed to use apart from attempted theft, keys locked in car and flat battery due to leaving light on.
Service and maintenance is the key, if you think there is something wrong investigate.
However some people seem unable to check fluids and if they hear a noise just turn the music up. They probably need a lease deal.
Used to work for a hire company and have broken down many times in cars less than a year old.
I hope we do because I prefer older cars to the current ones in the showrooms. I like buying cheap runaround and not losing loads in depreciation. I visited a local scrapyard a the weekend and they had a a rover 25 in which looked absolutely fine. The hg was fine on it and it looked like a well maintained car. Even worse it had a valid mot and had had some new parts fitted. It's obviously been scrapped because the owner didn't see the point in trying to sell it since it's practically worthless. A real shame all the same. These days people just go onto cheap finance deals which lock them into 5 year contracts for vehicles that aren't that good in comparison to previous models,
I really hope so!
Bought my petrol "double-shed" (i.e.£2K ish) last year and while I have spent some money on maintenance that is less than the depreciation I suffered on its diseasel predecessor.
Bonus is it is just so much more fun to drive.
And there are so few new cars I would even consider, never mind want, regardless of price.
Compulsory adaptive dampers, driver mode settings, turbo engines, flappy-paddles, electric handbrakes - WTF is that about FFS? Just set it up properly in the first place and chuck the electronics in the bin! And don't even think about DMF's, EGR valves, DPFs............
All that stuff is a nightmare waiting to happen for out of warranty owners - perhaps shed numbers may drop a bit!
Bought my petrol "double-shed" (i.e.£2K ish) last year and while I have spent some money on maintenance that is less than the depreciation I suffered on its diseasel predecessor.
Bonus is it is just so much more fun to drive.
And there are so few new cars I would even consider, never mind want, regardless of price.
Compulsory adaptive dampers, driver mode settings, turbo engines, flappy-paddles, electric handbrakes - WTF is that about FFS? Just set it up properly in the first place and chuck the electronics in the bin! And don't even think about DMF's, EGR valves, DPFs............
All that stuff is a nightmare waiting to happen for out of warranty owners - perhaps shed numbers may drop a bit!
Changes in consumer rights will make it totally impossible to allow the re sale of vehicles over (say) 150k miles and or 15 years. Sheds will be lost in a wilderness of scrap and good vehicles which cannot be sold for fear of the legal implications of re sale... Unless simply sold on the fly which can be seen through buy the estute...
UK345 said:
These days people just go onto cheap finance deals which lock them into 5 year contracts for vehicles that aren't that good in comparison to previous models,
That's an interesting comment. I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that new models are that good compare to the previous ones.Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff