Pension fund keeps growing - thoughts?

Pension fund keeps growing - thoughts?

Author
Discussion

Brave Fart

Original Poster:

5,773 posts

112 months

Friday 12th January 2018
quotequote all
My pension is a bog standard Aviva defined contribution scheme, and over the last year I have fallen in to a routine of checking the fund value regularly on line. I do not manage the funds in any way - I leave that to the fund managers at Aviva!
I don't mind equity risk since I also have cash savings and own two properties. I have zero debt.
Thing is, it just keeps going up - about 20% in the last year. The fund is invested 80% in global equity, only 4% UK equity, then bonds and cash; I semi-retired recently and no longer contribute since I'm in my mid fifties.
I have a few questions for the wise owls of PH:
  • Am I making the mistake of short-termism, and am simply seeing a short term bubble?
  • Why does the fund keep growing - is it because of the global economy?
  • Any opinions on how long this can continue (I know no-one has a crystal ball)?
  • Is there any way of "locking in" these recent gains?
  • Should I just leave it alone, since I'm not drawing down yet (and won't for a few years yet)?
Please don't think I'm bragging here - I'm simply curious because it seems too good to be true, and wondered what others' thoughts were.

z4RRSchris

11,353 posts

180 months

Friday 12th January 2018
quotequote all
Brave Fart said:
  • Am I making the mistake of short-termism, and am simply seeing a short term bubble? - yes
  • Why does the fund keep growing - is it because of the global economy? - yes and your allocations are squewed towards it
  • Any opinions on how long this can continue (I know no-one has a crystal ball)? - crystal ball. i suspect brexit / corbyn / trump impeachment will sort it out
  • Is there any way of "locking in" these recent gains? - yes, change your allocations to bonds and cash
  • Should I just leave it alone, since I'm not drawing down yet (and won't for a few years yet)? - depends how risk adverse you are
non of the above is advice. dyor etc etc

anonymous-user

55 months

Friday 12th January 2018
quotequote all
I have a similar situation although my growth has been somewhat less, but my pot is spread a lot more than yours, probably 50/50 between UK and global, and then spread again between fixed interest, property, emerging markets etc etc


If I were you I'd get a decent IFA to look at it and make it a bit more spread, my investment pie chart has more colours in it then a multitude of rainbows, and personally I think thats the best way to go

CaptainSlow

13,179 posts

213 months

Friday 12th January 2018
quotequote all
Brave Fart said:
My pension is a bog standard Aviva defined contribution scheme, and over the last year I have fallen in to a routine of checking the fund value regularly on line. I do not manage the funds in any way - I leave that to the fund managers at Aviva!
I don't mind equity risk since I also have cash savings and own two properties. I have zero debt.
Thing is, it just keeps going up - about 20% in the last year. The fund is invested 80% in global equity, only 4% UK equity, then bonds and cash; I semi-retired recently and no longer contribute since I'm in my mid fifties.
I have a few questions for the wise owls of PH:
  • Am I making the mistake of short-termism, and am simply seeing a short term bubble?
  • Why does the fund keep growing - is it because of the global economy?
  • Any opinions on how long this can continue (I know no-one has a crystal ball)?
  • Is there any way of "locking in" these recent gains?
  • Should I just leave it alone, since I'm not drawing down yet (and won't for a few years yet)?
Please don't think I'm bragging here - I'm simply curious because it seems too good to be true, and wondered what others' thoughts were.
You're not bragging...all our pension funds are up at the moment. Chances are we'll be down by the same amount in six months.

Depends when you want to start withdrawing. If I were your age I'd change my mix significantly.

We're playing blackjack and you're on 19....your call to twist or stick.

Bobajobbob

1,444 posts

97 months

Friday 12th January 2018
quotequote all
Global stocks are at an all time high and £ is relatively weak. You are benefitting from both of these factors.

Yipper

5,964 posts

91 months

Friday 12th January 2018
quotequote all
The general rule of thumb is to be roughly 100% in equities at 20yo, and 20% in equities at 60yo.

You need to start getting it into cash or bonds (beware the current bear market) and lock in the gains.

nickfrog

21,303 posts

218 months

Friday 12th January 2018
quotequote all
Yipper said:
The general rule of thumb is to be roughly 100% in equities at 20yo, and 20% in equities at 60yo.
What if you retire at 50 ?

Badda

2,685 posts

83 months

Friday 12th January 2018
quotequote all
nickfrog said:
Yipper said:
The general rule of thumb is to be roughly 100% in equities at 20yo, and 20% in equities at 60yo.
What if you retire at 50 ?
Just ignore him.

CaptainSlow

13,179 posts

213 months

Friday 12th January 2018
quotequote all
nickfrog said:
Yipper said:
The general rule of thumb is to be roughly 100% in equities at 20yo, and 20% in equities at 60yo.
What if you retire at 50 ?
If you don't buy an annuity what are you going to do?

nickfrog

21,303 posts

218 months

Friday 12th January 2018
quotequote all
CaptainSlow said:
nickfrog said:
Yipper said:
The general rule of thumb is to be roughly 100% in equities at 20yo, and 20% in equities at 60yo.
What if you retire at 50 ?
If you don't buy an annuity what are you going to do?
I don't see the relevance but I'll live out of other diversified pension arrangements until I can get the 25% tax free and then draw down in a fiscally smart manner. I am just hoping this still will be at 55 but I doubt it.

mikeiow

5,407 posts

131 months

Friday 12th January 2018
quotequote all
Brave Fart said:
My pension is a bog standard Aviva defined contribution scheme, and over the last year I have fallen in to a routine of checking the fund value regularly on line. I do not manage the funds in any way - I leave that to the fund managers at Aviva!
I don't mind equity risk since I also have cash savings and own two properties. I have zero debt.
Thing is, it just keeps going up - about 20% in the last year. The fund is invested 80% in global equity, only 4% UK equity, then bonds and cash; I semi-retired recently and no longer contribute since I'm in my mid fifties.
I have a few questions for the wise owls of PH:
  • Am I making the mistake of short-termism, and am simply seeing a short term bubble?
  • Why does the fund keep growing - is it because of the global economy?
  • Any opinions on how long this can continue (I know no-one has a crystal ball)?
  • Is there any way of "locking in" these recent gains?
  • Should I just leave it alone, since I'm not drawing down yet (and won't for a few years yet)?
Please don't think I'm bragging here - I'm simply curious because it seems too good to be true, and wondered what others' thoughts were.
Similar here with a reasonable chunk.
I'm not so sure global equities are bad - if a proper spread, it may be the best 'spread bet on equities' you can possibly get - see http://www.kroijer.com for more reasoned analysis on this, where the fella strongly (& reasonably) recommends ALL your equity investments to be global....

I'd agree about thinking of shifting some to bonds to hedge against a fall.....I probably need to do the same.....but cannot see quite how within the Aviva tool - lowest risk there is sterling (which looks like it loses money!) followed by a few 3-rated bonds.....needs an entire day spent looking through the options!

I also agree it is a bit of a bubble...but nothing like that of cryptocurrency (IMHO!).....I'd personally be surprised if any 'correction' went over 20% in the next couple of years. There, that is my crystal ball, and certainly not advice!

ianrb

1,539 posts

141 months

Saturday 13th January 2018
quotequote all
Yipper said:
The general rule of thumb is to be roughly 100% in equities at 20yo, and 20% in equities at 60yo.
When we all had to buy annuities this was a reasonable thing to do. Now that draw down is available it makes more sense to keep enough to live for say 4 years in low risk investments and the rest in whatever you feel comfortable with. Given the low rate of return in cash and bonds you are really only left with property or equities. Unless you're a more sophisticated investor, in which case you'll be knee deep derivitives, hedge funds etc.


Jeff_Enthused

48 posts

76 months

Sunday 14th January 2018
quotequote all
nickfrog said:
What if you retire at 50 ?
this bloke is 1 post short of 8000 posts.

nickfrog

21,303 posts

218 months

Monday 15th January 2018
quotequote all
Jeff_Enthused said:
this bloke is 1 post short of 8000 posts.
??

timbo999

1,298 posts

256 months

Monday 15th January 2018
quotequote all
Jeff_Enthused said:
nickfrog said:
What if you retire at 50 ?
this bloke is 1 post short of 8000 posts.
Yeah... but at least he doesn't have a broken Focus...

Jeff_Enthused

48 posts

76 months

Monday 15th January 2018
quotequote all
timbo999 said:
Yeah... but at least he doesn't have a broken Focus...
Jealousy is such an unattractive quality.