Share Price Watching for a Noob
Discussion
I have a small stock of Shell Ordinary B shares & the price is currently sky-rocketing over the last week or so.
I'd like to free up a small amount, but am holding off selling as the price continues to drift higher.
Any gurus able to inform me when the rise will slow & the inevitable price drop might materialise?
Thanks from a complete & utter share-dealing noob
I'd like to free up a small amount, but am holding off selling as the price continues to drift higher.
Any gurus able to inform me when the rise will slow & the inevitable price drop might materialise?
Thanks from a complete & utter share-dealing noob
Digger said:
okgo said:
If anyone knew the answer to your question they wouldn’t be sitting on here.
Well SOMEBODY must know! . . . 
I'm well aware it was a borderline daft query
or a missle strike might wipe out a refinery sending prices soaring.
No one knows.
Digger said:
Do we know why the price shot up over the last week or so?
Middle East tensions rising and inflation cooling less than expected, oil and the like do well in that environment. Shell said production numbers were good too last week.Edited by CLK-GTR on Friday 12th April 13:35
Not usefully.
Everything closes at the weekend, except the noddy stuff like IG weekend markets which is only for retail punters and generally has little predictive value anyway. Index futures and FX markets open late Sunday night, which is when you'll start to get an idea of the very broad strokes macro reaction to whatever's happened over the weekend.
At the individual stock level, from about 0600 tomorrow morning the analysts and traders who cover the stock at every bank and broker on the street will be getting in and speaking to their clients - the PMs and traders who make decisions at asset managers and hedge funds - to try and tease out the pertinent information: how people are positioned, what they think of what's happened, what they're planning to do about it and where that fits into the broader market narrative. They'll use this and any formal announcements the company has made to circulate a somewhat finger-in-the-air estimate of how the stock's going to open, which is occasionally useful but frequently useless because it's a game of imperfect information and when the market actually opens at 0800 (not 0830), a huge swathe of hitherto silent flow also enters the picture from every kind of systematic (or "algo" in common parlance) strategy over every time horizon you can imagine and more. Stuff might take anything from a few minutes to the first hour to settle down and find a level, then it's just a continuous feedback loop of new information and collective decision-making until the end of the day.
So right now, in the face of a fast-moving multifaceted geopolitical clusterf
k, unless you're a company insider or White House foreign policy advisor your guess is probably as good as anyone else's.
Everything closes at the weekend, except the noddy stuff like IG weekend markets which is only for retail punters and generally has little predictive value anyway. Index futures and FX markets open late Sunday night, which is when you'll start to get an idea of the very broad strokes macro reaction to whatever's happened over the weekend.
At the individual stock level, from about 0600 tomorrow morning the analysts and traders who cover the stock at every bank and broker on the street will be getting in and speaking to their clients - the PMs and traders who make decisions at asset managers and hedge funds - to try and tease out the pertinent information: how people are positioned, what they think of what's happened, what they're planning to do about it and where that fits into the broader market narrative. They'll use this and any formal announcements the company has made to circulate a somewhat finger-in-the-air estimate of how the stock's going to open, which is occasionally useful but frequently useless because it's a game of imperfect information and when the market actually opens at 0800 (not 0830), a huge swathe of hitherto silent flow also enters the picture from every kind of systematic (or "algo" in common parlance) strategy over every time horizon you can imagine and more. Stuff might take anything from a few minutes to the first hour to settle down and find a level, then it's just a continuous feedback loop of new information and collective decision-making until the end of the day.
So right now, in the face of a fast-moving multifaceted geopolitical clusterf
k, unless you're a company insider or White House foreign policy advisor your guess is probably as good as anyone else's.Digger said:
I have a small stock of Shell Ordinary B shares & the price is currently sky-rocketing over the last week or so.
I'd like to free up a small amount, but am holding off selling as the price continues to drift higher.
Any gurus able to inform me when the rise will slow & the inevitable price drop might materialise?
Thanks from a complete & utter share-dealing noob
The price follows what’s known as a random walk, meaning that it’s not possible to predict anything about the next movement from all historic movements.I'd like to free up a small amount, but am holding off selling as the price continues to drift higher.
Any gurus able to inform me when the rise will slow & the inevitable price drop might materialise?
Thanks from a complete & utter share-dealing noob
One way to decide whether to sell is to ask yourself if you would buy them now if you didn’t have them but did have the cash available.
NowWatchThisDrive said:
Not usefully.
Everything closes at the weekend, except the noddy stuff like IG weekend markets which is only for retail punters and generally has little predictive value anyway. Index futures and FX markets open late Sunday night, which is when you'll start to get an idea of the very broad strokes macro reaction to whatever's happened over the weekend.
At the individual stock level, from about 0600 tomorrow morning the analysts and traders who cover the stock at every bank and broker on the street will be getting in and speaking to their clients - the PMs and traders who make decisions at asset managers and hedge funds - to try and tease out the pertinent information: how people are positioned, what they think of what's happened, what they're planning to do about it and where that fits into the broader market narrative. They'll use this and any formal announcements the company has made to circulate a somewhat finger-in-the-air estimate of how the stock's going to open, which is occasionally useful but frequently useless because it's a game of imperfect information and when the market actually opens at 0800 (not 0830), a huge swathe of hitherto silent flow also enters the picture from every kind of systematic (or "algo" in common parlance) strategy over every time horizon you can imagine and more. Stuff might take anything from a few minutes to the first hour to settle down and find a level, then it's just a continuous feedback loop of new information and collective decision-making until the end of the day.
So right now, in the face of a fast-moving multifaceted geopolitical clusterfk, unless you're a company insider or White House foreign policy advisor your guess is probably as good as anyone else's.
As okgo alludes - interesting insight Everything closes at the weekend, except the noddy stuff like IG weekend markets which is only for retail punters and generally has little predictive value anyway. Index futures and FX markets open late Sunday night, which is when you'll start to get an idea of the very broad strokes macro reaction to whatever's happened over the weekend.
At the individual stock level, from about 0600 tomorrow morning the analysts and traders who cover the stock at every bank and broker on the street will be getting in and speaking to their clients - the PMs and traders who make decisions at asset managers and hedge funds - to try and tease out the pertinent information: how people are positioned, what they think of what's happened, what they're planning to do about it and where that fits into the broader market narrative. They'll use this and any formal announcements the company has made to circulate a somewhat finger-in-the-air estimate of how the stock's going to open, which is occasionally useful but frequently useless because it's a game of imperfect information and when the market actually opens at 0800 (not 0830), a huge swathe of hitherto silent flow also enters the picture from every kind of systematic (or "algo" in common parlance) strategy over every time horizon you can imagine and more. Stuff might take anything from a few minutes to the first hour to settle down and find a level, then it's just a continuous feedback loop of new information and collective decision-making until the end of the day.
So right now, in the face of a fast-moving multifaceted geopolitical clusterf
k, unless you're a company insider or White House foreign policy advisor your guess is probably as good as anyone else's.Ken_Code said:
Digger said:
Do we know why the price shot up over the last week or so?
Seriously?Digger said:
Does "Yes" work for you?
Iran launched an attack in Israel, which had been brewing for a little while.There’s a thread about it.
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
Edited by Ken_Code on Sunday 14th April 21:41
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