The Middle East Thread - Junior Edition...
Discussion
Totally serious BTW
I was disucssing various things about the current gloabal climate in the pub with some mates...
Whilst we were happile putting the world to rights - someone chirped up:
"What is it that they all want then...?"
*Silence*
Well....we thought about it and it became clear that very little was clear...
We managed to disagree on most of it to be fair...so I have decided to consult the Oracle of PH
So...without scrapping and arguing [facts only please...]
Who are the main players in the Middle East ?
What do they want?
Who is allied with who?
Who is against who?
OK - very, very simplified version here. I am starting with the following views. 1) Israel has the right to exist. 2) By Arab nations I mean those nations in the ME excluding Israel and the Palestinians. 3) Arab nations are ot all Muslim and should not be seen as such. 4) Israel is the Jewish state but not all Jews are Israelis and not all Israelis are Jews.
Totally serious BTW
I was disucssing various things about the current gloabal climate in the pub with some mates...
Whilst we were happile putting the world to rights - someone chirped up:
"What is it that they all want then...?"
*Silence*
Well....we thought about it and it became clear that very little was clear...
We managed to disagree on most of it to be fair...so I have decided to consult the Oracle of PH
So...without scrapping and arguing [facts only please...]
Who are the main players in the Middle East ?
The USA, EU, UN, Arab League, Russia and to some extent China, Britain and France are the key external players
Internally you have the moderate (read pro-Western) Arab states. These include Eygpt, Jordan to some extent and in a convoluted way, factions of the PA (the Palestinan Authority) and factions of the Lebanese government (well, until about 2 weeks ago).
Then you have the anti-western and anti Israeli countries typified by Iran and Syria and organisations like the Hezbvollah, Hamas, Fatah (kind of a faction of the PA), parts of the Lebanese government.
Then of course you have Israel.
Last but by no means least you have the Palestinains, those who live inside the Occupied Terrotories and those who live outside, whose views are often different.
What do they want?
Right, this is where it gets complicated...
3 key views....
1) Anti-western / anti-Israel; they want to see Israel destroyed and the western influence removed from the ME
2) Israel - wants to live in security.
3) The Palestinians - want much the same as Israel but don't have a place to do it yet as their borders are controlled by Isreal and they have been in effect opccupied by Israel since 1967.
These are sweeping generalisations and each group has sub groups that want very different things - imagine asking what everone in England thinks about the Iraq war or the right way to handle the economy / NHS/ schools etc, then add guns, far to much coffee, oil, corruption that makes our own dear MPs look like the very definaiton of honest and a smatering of religion and you get the picture
Who is allied with who?
Basically - US & Israel
Hamas and some Palestinains have some shared links with HB, Syria, Iran, bits of Lebanese society and some others but the Palestinans really are slightly seperate as they hve been pretty much f**ked by everyone over the years.
Eygpt, Jordan, some of the other palestinians etc.
Britain, EU, France, Russia and China go whereever the deals are to be made.
UN - depends on who you ask, which day of the week it is and if you think they have any teeth anyway!
Who is against who?
Israel v HB / Syria / Iran and to an extent the Lebanese government
Israel V Hamas
Hamas v PA
Syria / Iran / HB against more moderate Arab states including Eygpt / Jordan and some others
France tends to be pro- Arab
US tends to be pro - Israel
UN tends to be useless!
EU tends to be pro-Arab
UK tends to follow US lead but vears towards the Arab viewpoint more than the US does but is not on the whole viewed as a key player in the region anymore, but has strong historical links.
I have tried to be as fair as I can be and as concise as I know how. You have to appreciate we are talking about 100's or possibly 1,000s of years of history, business, oil, religion, culture, sects and politics here.
For the record, I think my own position is relvant. I am an English Jew, I have studied International relations and worked for key gobal news organisations. I am viewed as left wing by ME standards. I have and continue to spend time in Israel and have also spent time in Arab East Jerusalum and in Ramallah and Bethlihem, both of which are now part of and goverened by the PA. I am unable to go to those places any more as it is simply unsafe for Jews to do so. I do however spend time with Israeli Arabs, I have done business with Arabs of a range of political and religous backgrounds from many of these countries and count people from some of the most extreme Arab states amongst my closest friends although their political views and mine tend to be pretty moderate. That alone should give you some idea of how comple this situation is!
Hope that helps.
gorvid said:
Totally serious BTW
I was disucssing various things about the current gloabal climate in the pub with some mates...
Whilst we were happile putting the world to rights - someone chirped up:
"What is it that they all want then...?"
*Silence*
Well....we thought about it and it became clear that very little was clear...
We managed to disagree on most of it to be fair...so I have decided to consult the Oracle of PH
So...without scrapping and arguing [facts only please...]
Who are the main players in the Middle East ?
The USA, EU, UN, Arab League, Russia and to some extent China, Britain and France are the key external players
Internally you have the moderate (read pro-Western) Arab states. These include Eygpt, Jordan to some extent and in a convoluted way, factions of the PA (the Palestinan Authority) and factions of the Lebanese government (well, until about 2 weeks ago).
Then you have the anti-western and anti Israeli countries typified by Iran and Syria and organisations like the Hezbvollah, Hamas, Fatah (kind of a faction of the PA), parts of the Lebanese government.
Then of course you have Israel.
Last but by no means least you have the Palestinains, those who live inside the Occupied Terrotories and those who live outside, whose views are often different.
What do they want?
Right, this is where it gets complicated...
3 key views....
1) Anti-western / anti-Israel; they want to see Israel destroyed and the western influence removed from the ME
2) Israel - wants to live in security.
3) The Palestinians - want much the same as Israel but don't have a place to do it yet as their borders are controlled by Isreal and they have been in effect opccupied by Israel since 1967.
These are sweeping generalisations and each group has sub groups that want very different things - imagine asking what everone in England thinks about the Iraq war or the right way to handle the economy / NHS/ schools etc, then add guns, far to much coffee, oil, corruption that makes our own dear MPs look like the very definaiton of honest and a smatering of religion and you get the picture
Who is allied with who?
Basically - US & Israel
Hamas and some Palestinains have some shared links with HB, Syria, Iran, bits of Lebanese society and some others but the Palestinans really are slightly seperate as they hve been pretty much f**ked by everyone over the years.
Eygpt, Jordan, some of the other palestinians etc.
Britain, EU, France, Russia and China go whereever the deals are to be made.
UN - depends on who you ask, which day of the week it is and if you think they have any teeth anyway!
Who is against who?
Israel v HB / Syria / Iran and to an extent the Lebanese government
Israel V Hamas
Hamas v PA
Syria / Iran / HB against more moderate Arab states including Eygpt / Jordan and some others
France tends to be pro- Arab
US tends to be pro - Israel
UN tends to be useless!
EU tends to be pro-Arab
UK tends to follow US lead but vears towards the Arab viewpoint more than the US does but is not on the whole viewed as a key player in the region anymore, but has strong historical links.
I have tried to be as fair as I can be and as concise as I know how. You have to appreciate we are talking about 100's or possibly 1,000s of years of history, business, oil, religion, culture, sects and politics here.
For the record, I think my own position is relvant. I am an English Jew, I have studied International relations and worked for key gobal news organisations. I am viewed as left wing by ME standards. I have and continue to spend time in Israel and have also spent time in Arab East Jerusalum and in Ramallah and Bethlihem, both of which are now part of and goverened by the PA. I am unable to go to those places any more as it is simply unsafe for Jews to do so. I do however spend time with Israeli Arabs, I have done business with Arabs of a range of political and religous backgrounds from many of these countries and count people from some of the most extreme Arab states amongst my closest friends although their political views and mine tend to be pretty moderate. That alone should give you some idea of how comple this situation is!
Hope that helps.
Thank you very much for that insight.
I have commented to my fellow mods that it makes it difficult to moderate when you cannot understand something, hence when the Middle East threads kick off (namecalling and suchlike), me and a couple of others tend to steer clear for not wanting to get things wrong etc.
Not that we are any further toward being able to now - but at least we can understand to a degree the arguments that are forming within the threads.
Thanks
I have commented to my fellow mods that it makes it difficult to moderate when you cannot understand something, hence when the Middle East threads kick off (namecalling and suchlike), me and a couple of others tend to steer clear for not wanting to get things wrong etc.
Not that we are any further toward being able to now - but at least we can understand to a degree the arguments that are forming within the threads.
Thanks
) garyhun said:
tallbloke said:
Just one point from your concise overview PL
"Hamas Vs PA"
I though Hamas is the Palestinian Authority now it's been elected to it's governance?
"Hamas Vs PA"
I though Hamas is the Palestinian Authority now it's been elected to it's governance?
Hamas has 74 seats out of 132 in the Palestinian Parliament!!
Fair enough. Also noticed PL didn't mention the PLO...
tallbloke said:
garyhun said:
tallbloke said:
Just one point from your concise overview PL
"Hamas Vs PA"
I though Hamas is the Palestinian Authority now it's been elected to it's governance?
"Hamas Vs PA"
I though Hamas is the Palestinian Authority now it's been elected to it's governance?
Hamas has 74 seats out of 132 in the Palestinian Parliament!!
Fair enough. Also noticed PL didn't mention the PLO...
Like I said, simplified versionm but here goes...
Right, PLO does not exist anymore it became the PLA which for a time was also the vast majority of the PA.
Hamas and the PLA are pretty much at each others throats most of the time. So although the PA is the government and is basically Hamas, PLA control the presidancy and a lot of support on the ground. Hence the two spend a vast amount of time playing games with each other instead of doing what they are supposed to and dealing with the many social, political, economic problems of the people. They are also supposed to deal with the overall situation as regards Israel. Hamas pretty much refused, Abbas tries. To make life harder, under the PLA is the armed wing of the old PLO called Fatah who support Abbas but don;t always agree with his policies about Israel. This Fatah and Hamas people have regular gun fights. OK so far? Anyone want the full version?!
So let me perhas make my original statement more accurate
PLO=PLA v Hamas within the PA except when Fatah get involved in which case it is PLA sometime + Fatah v Hamas on the streets but then Fatah may disagree with either side while the Police there kind of support the PA which is often Hamas policies but not always because PLA run the presidancy and I think the economy and have responsibility for foreign poilicy which is key.
pappa lurve said:
PA is the government and is basically Hamas, PLA control the presidancy and a lot of support on the ground. Hence the two spend a vast amount of time playing games with each other instead of doing what they are supposed to and dealing with the many social, political, economic problems of the people.
I think it would be fair to say that the many social, political, economic problems of the people are beyond solution by any palestinian authority while they have 1,400,000 people crammed into an area 23 miles by 7. They are a people without much land needing their land back from other people.
gorvid said:
Following on from that ecellent answer PL....
What do you think could / should / will be done...?
And what motivates the various alliances?
What do you think could / should / will be done...?
And what motivates the various alliances?
OK - going out on a limb here but here is what I would like to see...
1) Israel out of the west bank and Gaza strip excluding Jerusalum (back to that later)
2) A twin state soloution
3) HB disarmed which would require Irannian backing which I sijmply don't see hapening sadly
4) ALL Arab countries to recognise Israel.
5) Isreal, the UN and the Arab League, possibly with EU involvment to set up a joint venture, funded with assistance of the US to help the Palestinains create a viable economy.
6) The wall to be removed as soon as is safe to do so.
7) Isreal to remain in control of Jerusalum with protected routes in for each relevant group (Jews, Muslims, Christians etc)
8) Iran and Syria to engage with the world community in a useful way (again, can't see it happening)
9) An understanding from the USA and the EU that an imposed governemtn system will not work and thus they have to allow each country to follow its own path and support it in so-doing, not impose a western style democracy if it is not welcome - again, I have no idea how this could be achieved.
10) 1% of all oil wealth to be transfered to me - this is key to the whole process!
11) An understanding, and this really is the key here, that different cultures have different values and have the right to do so without imposing those values and beleifs on those who differ
12) Caravans will only be allowed on the road on anyday with the letters wqxxz in that order, except the Middle Eastern meaning of caravans which are made up of camels and while a tad slow don't tend to bloak up bank holiday traffic.
Would the above work - who knows. The problem is that to make it work is IMHO close to impossible. Very brief thoughts there but you asked. For an off the cuff comment I think it ain't a bad answer myself!
Lots of nice suggestions but don't see the arab nations entertaining a solution which doesn't put the existence of a palestinian state on an equal footing with an israeli state. Fair's fair: if Israel wants the arab nations to recognise it's righ to exist, they have to recognise a palestinian state's right to exist in return.
scorp said:
I think they want the infidels off "their muslim lands" or something to that effect.
One of the biggest problems is that there is no "they". Arab countries are far from united. Islam is as divided and at war with itself as Christianity (if not more so). You can't treat Arabs and/or Muslims as a homogenous whole, any more than you can treat Europeans/Christians as a homogenous whole. There are different issues across the region, different degrees of theocracy and differnet demands and expectations.And there would need to be a better solution for Jerusalem.
If it needs split then so be it - or alternatively it may need to become a City State.
The Al Asqa(sp?) mosque is the third holiest shrine in Islam - so keeping it under Israeli control may not help on the steps towards peace.
Also, the list needs to adress the right of return of refugees - even if this is done to get other Arab countires on board who want shot of the large immigrant Palestinain populations that can be quite destabalising to their own demographics.
All in, though, a fair enough list as a starter.
A starter mind you
If it needs split then so be it - or alternatively it may need to become a City State.
The Al Asqa(sp?) mosque is the third holiest shrine in Islam - so keeping it under Israeli control may not help on the steps towards peace.
Also, the list needs to adress the right of return of refugees - even if this is done to get other Arab countires on board who want shot of the large immigrant Palestinain populations that can be quite destabalising to their own demographics.
All in, though, a fair enough list as a starter.
A starter mind you
Edited by RossG on Tuesday 1st August 18:57
tallbloke said:
Lots of nice suggestions but don't see the arab nations entertaining a solution which doesn't put the existence of a palestinian state on an equal footing with an israeli state. Fair's fair: if Israel wants the arab nations to recognise it's righ to exist, they have to recognise a palestinian state's right to exist in return.
Not sure why you highlight this as it is one of the few things that is accepted by pretty much everyone including the Israelis. A viable Palestinain state alongside Israel is the central idea of the "two state solution" and that has clearly been the only deal on the table for the last 20 years. Both sides have signed up to it several times.Gassing Station | The Pie & Piston Archive | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff