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twinturboz

1,278 posts

177 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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Well it's Apple day today, fully expecting them to have smashed it out the park and post up the best earnings in their history.

Guidance was revenue between 63.5 and 66.5 billion, reckon they come in at about 69billion. Will be interesting to see if they hit that 70 million iPhone mark.

AOK

2,297 posts

165 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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twinturboz said:
Well it's Apple day today, fully expecting them to have smashed it out the park and post up the best earnings in their history.
I've found Apple always behaves so strangely on earnings. Owned for about 2.5 years now, and sometimes the earnings are off the chart and the stock goes down. Sometimes the release is meh and the stock flies!

TTZ - are you still playing the volatility on GPRO, or staying clear now?

PS I decided in the end to hold BBRY for better or worse and will half my position if it reaches $12.

twinturboz

1,278 posts

177 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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AOK said:
I've found Apple always behaves so strangely on earnings. Owned for about 2.5 years now, and sometimes the earnings are off the chart and the stock goes down. Sometimes the release is meh and the stock flies!

TTZ - are you still playing the volatility on GPRO, or staying clear now?

PS I decided in the end to hold BBRY for better or worse and will half my position if it reaches $12.
So true can just see tomorrow's headlines now : Apple shares decline after the company reported huge earnings but missed analysts expectations.

Seems to me it takes about 2 weeks for the earnings to be properly digested, even when the stock slides down on earnings usually it's up 2 weeks later.

Gpro I have a position a bit higer than current price around 56, looking for a similar reaction to last earnings, can't see how they would have had a weak christmas. Risky strategy though.

Stock wise not the prettiest chart has been hammered lately, but I'd prefer to go into earnings around this price rather than it run up before earnings. It's trending in a pretty defined downtrend channel, needs a break above 60ish imo to really get moving, earnings could be the catalyst. If not, I'll dump it take the loss and move on to the next trade, I don't think Gpro is a stock to hold for the longer term.

Lots of other earnings this week too Amzn, Goog, Fb

AOK

2,297 posts

165 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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Will probably close 3% down and then open 4% up after ER.

I hope there is some optimistic news about iwatch and cardless payments built into the conference call at some point


twinturboz

1,278 posts

177 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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Find out very soon. $ strength will be an issue for next 1/4 guidance. Will see how much it impacted this 1/4 earnings.

traxx

3,143 posts

221 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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twinturboz said:
Well it's Apple day today, fully expecting them to have smashed it out the park and post up the best earnings in their history.

Guidance was revenue between 63.5 and 66.5 billion, reckon they come in at about 69billion. Will be interesting to see if they hit that 70 million iPhone mark.
good call

twinturboz

1,278 posts

177 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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Unbelivable numbers

traxx

3,143 posts

221 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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Don't you find it interesting how yahoo is now almost worthless as a business and value is only in its shareholdings?

K12beano

20,854 posts

274 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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twinturboz said:
Unbelivable numbers
Just caught the headlines! thumbup

twinturboz

1,278 posts

177 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
The market reaction is a bit worrying, 75 billion and only a 5% move, what gives? Will be more worried if we fail to make new all-time highs within a few trading sessions.

So iPhone numbers that works out to 34,177 every hour or 568 iPhone's sold every min for the last quarter

Guidance is great 55billion and that doesn't account for the watch

Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 27th January 22:00


Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 27th January 22:24

AOK

2,297 posts

165 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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I think the earnings look encouraging! But remember, with Apple it could do the complete opposite tomorrow morning for no real reason!

twinturboz

1,278 posts

177 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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AOK said:
I think the earnings look encouraging! But remember, with Apple it could do the complete opposite tomorrow morning for no real reason!
It sinks I'll buy more it's a steal at this price imo, should be way up on those numbers (highest 1/4 profit by any company in history), suspect they'll try and hold below $115 to kill all the option premium.

From the conference call points to note how well apple pay is doing and a tiny % of the customer base has upgraded to iPhone 6/ 6+,
highest rate of Android switchers too.

Everything points to it being very difficult to not be bullish on Apple this year.

DonkeyApple

54,923 posts

168 months

Wednesday 28th January 2015
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There will be the usual arb opportunities between Apple and ARM over the next couple of weeks. Especially with FOMC today.

walm

10,609 posts

201 months

Wednesday 28th January 2015
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twinturboz said:
The market reaction is a bit worrying, 75 billion and only a 5% move, what gives? Will be more worried if we fail to make new all-time highs within a few trading sessions.
IMHO the problem for AAPL is that it is a very strong consensus buy. 45 buys and just 4 sells from the street.
I mean the damn thing is very very cheap. 12x PE even ignoring the cash!!!
But (obviously) for a stock to go up you need new buyers.
Who is the incremental buyer here? That IMHO is the problem.

And stupid "biggest earnings ever" headlines ignore the fact that it was the Christmas Q with a new iPhone and sales into China in scale for the first time.
Everyone knew it was going to be their best ever Q.
Although beating Exxon wasn't for sure, granted.

However, it was a genuine monster beat - above the most bullish sell-sider numbers which is impressive.
That 74m iphones is nuts.

twinturboz

1,278 posts

177 months

Wednesday 28th January 2015
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walm said:
IMHO the problem for AAPL is that it is a very strong consensus buy. 45 buys and just 4 sells from the street.
I mean the damn thing is very very cheap. 12x PE even ignoring the cash!!!
But (obviously) for a stock to go up you need new buyers.
Who is the incremental buyer here? That IMHO is the problem.

And stupid "biggest earnings ever" headlines ignore the fact that it was the Christmas Q with a new iPhone and sales into China in scale for the first time.
Everyone knew it was going to be their best ever Q.
Although beating Exxon wasn't for sure, granted.

However, it was a genuine monster beat - above the most bullish sell-sider numbers which is impressive.
That 74m iphones is nuts.
Agreed it's a quarter that is a one off in some sense, but the guidance they gave for next quarter would potentially be their 2nd biggest ever too. The numbers are just crazy and would have been bigger if not for fx headwinds.

To answer your incremental buyer question yes maybe those who want to be invested in Apple already are so heavily, and don't have room to add, but at the same time they won't be in a rush to sell those shares so possibly there's less supply.
I haven't looked at the institutional ownership figures recently but they used to be relatively low, I guess we shall find out over the coming weeks if money finds it's way flowing into Apple or not. I should think there's a real chance of Apple hitting 150 this year depending on the broader market of course. Oh there's also one more buyer I can think of who has a lot of cash burning a hole in their pockets.

walm

10,609 posts

201 months

Wednesday 28th January 2015
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twinturboz said:
Oh there's also one more buyer I can think of who has a lot of cash burning a hole in their pockets.
They seriously need to get on that 100% agree.
Although I think they are still facing issues on the onshoring of the cash.

Pete102

2,042 posts

185 months

Wednesday 28th January 2015
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Insane APPL numbers last night, I've been running them through my mind all morning. 34k Iphones...per hour...How do you even make that many!

Anyway, looking very positive for me on this front, I've been slowly upping my holding over the past few weeks so if they dip in todays session, its no biggy I just hope it holds until payday and I can buy more!

Without a doubt I think this is a $125 share and I consider that to be quite conservative.

The real question for me is where is the exit point!

K12beano

20,854 posts

274 months

Wednesday 28th January 2015
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Pete102 said:
Insane APPL numbers ....
The real question for me is where is the exit point!
Huge cash reserves
Continuing potential for share repurchase programmes
Dividends

- slightly blasé, but why *worry* about where to exit in the short term!

twinturboz

1,278 posts

177 months

Wednesday 28th January 2015
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$119 much better. Apple I belive it is worth just owning, forget about trading it. The cycle will end, growth will slowdown at some point. But we've just come off the end of that and I think this new growth cycle is just starting. The watch if it makes just 10% penetration into the market Apple would become the biggest watch maker. The company is evolving from just hardware, the watch I guess you could argue it's moving into the luxury market.

No idea where this goes 5-10 years time, if they keep making new markets for themselves who's to say there isn't a potential 200-300% return from current prices.

Pete102

2,042 posts

185 months

Wednesday 28th January 2015
quotequote all
K12beano said:
Huge cash reserves
Continuing potential for share repurchase programmes
Dividends

- slightly blasé, but why *worry* about where to exit in the short term!
Very good point indeed!, unless I'm mistaken did they also announce a 47c March/April divi last night?
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