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[traxx]

walm said:

Right - another famous short-seller I have a lot of respect for: Citron.

They have found GoPro v2 or son-of-GoPro or whatever you want to call it. AMBA US. They make the video processing chips that go into GoPros. Up on drone potential. Likely (very likely) to halve when GoPro dual-source - which they will (IMHO).

Again, I have no affiliation and all I have done is read their one research note on it but this has ALL the hallmarks of a classic fabless semi one-product bubble stock.
I have seen an awful lot of these.

http://www.citronresearch.com/why-ambarella-will-t...

Thanks for that, entertaining read

Does the research company disclose anywhere the size of their own short in the stock?

Edited by traxx on Saturday 1st August 06:32

[walm]

traxx said:

Thanks for that, entertaining read

Does the research company disclose anywhere the size of their own short in the stock?

I doubt it - it would will change regularly and is somewhat proprietary.
As with all their pieces assume they WILL be short, of course.

[DJRC]

Whats the collective view of Anglo American? Do we think they have stopped dropping or more free falling of a stone like variety yet to continue?

[DonkeyApple]

DJRC said:

Whats the collective view of Anglo American? Do we think they have stopped dropping or more free falling of a stone like variety yet to continue?

The most important thing is that the have a CEO called Cutifani.

They dig holes and sell the content of those holes to China. Digging holes has become cheaper recently as oil is cheaper and hole digging equipment is in surplus but the reality is that the value of what they dig out has been falling since Q3 2012.

Commods were a massive bubble and it's still unwinding. Chinese demand is falling. And most are priced in USD which is going to strengthen as they raise rates.

It's probably the case that short term you might get some trades out of it as it ebbs and flows on dividend fears or global economic data. Long term it's probably fine to start scaling in to position build but medium term, with no reason for commods to reverse their trend it seems not much more than a punt.

If you already have a long term position and have held it to this point then it's probably about the yield. So long as they hold the dividend then you still have the original yield and on top of that you have CGT losses that can be booked if it's notnin a wrapper etc or if you are liable to such jurisdictional taxes. Once the trend very clearly reverses then you can consider adding incrementally and going over weight etc as an option.

Edited by DonkeyApple on Wednesday 5th August 09:39

[trashbat]

Once again I'm going to mention Fiat Chrysler, which continues to outperform expectations, and is eminently tradeable too.

I wouldn't buy too heavily into this particular article, but have a read:

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/07/fiat-chrysler-aut...

article said:

The gift that keeps on giving. When you take a company hated by investors, add the best CEO in the industry, a group of under-invested brands, a focus on ROIC and margin expansion, all at a cyclical trough in Europe, you get a powerful brew of value-creating potions

...

With the IPO of Ferrari coming up in October, and subsequent spin-out of its shares to Fiat Chrysler Automobiles holders in the summer of 2016, we make the case that Fiat Chrysler Automobiles shares could nearly triple by the end of next year

...

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles remains our most attractive and largest position.

...

We thought it was interesting that Marchionne has met with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s CEO Tim Cook as well as executives at Tesla.3 Sergio is leading the discussion with these aspirational car-markers so as to position Fiat Chrysler Automobiles front and center if and when Apple decides it wants to enter the automotive manufacturing business.

and

http://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/chrysler/201...

article said:

Max Warburton, analyst for Bersntein Research, said the automaker’s results were far better than he expected.

“The show must go on, and this will help,” Warburton said. “The score today: Sergio 1, the Doubters 0.”

Good times

[walm]

I would kill to be in on the Fezza IPO.

[trashbat]

walm said:

I would kill to be in on the Fezza IPO.

Then buy some Fiat shares.

Ferrari's the boring bit, IMO. A successful niche standalone player who is likely to slowly evolve; like many IPOs, the hype around the share will exceed the potential.

FCA on the other hand are an underappreciated, underestimated player whose story will hopefully be one of total turnaround rather than iterative, conservative steps forward.

Edited by trashbat on Wednesday 5th August 12:40

[Oakey]

Quindell just seems to be the gift that keeps on giving... I belive their 2013 'profit' of £83million has been readjusted to a loss of £68million and reported net assets of £668million are now £446million

[egomeister]

Oakey said:

Quindell just seems to be the gift that keeps on giving... I belive their 2013 'profit' of £83million has been readjusted to a loss of £68million and reported net assets of £668million are now £446million

I had a nose at one of the boards yesterday, unbelievably there are still people defending them! Having said that I suppose it could be trolling but surely no-one could maintain that level of apparent stupidity for so long unless they genuine.

[walm]

trashbat said:

walm said:

I would kill to be in on the Fezza IPO.

Then buy some Fiat shares.

Ferrari's the boring bit, IMO. A successful niche standalone player who is likely to slowly evolve; like many IPOs, the hype around the share will exceed the potential.

FCA on the other hand are an underappreciated, underestimated player whose story will hopefully be one of total turnaround rather than iterative, conservative steps forward.

Ferrari is estd. $10-11bn vs. FCA mkt cap of $21bn. So it's only half - and I am really not sure about the other half.

And FYI Max is a massive bear - he has a EUR6-ish target on the stock at EUR15.
He wrote an incredible piece on why he loves Sergio but hates Fiat.

Totally agree with you on the Fezza hype though - with only a 10% free float and trophy asset status it won't be trading on fundamentals.

[trashbat]

walm said:

Ferrari is estd. $10-11bn vs. FCA mkt cap of $21bn. So it's only half - and I am really not sure about the other half.

And FYI Max is a massive bear - he has a EUR6-ish target on the stock at EUR15.
He wrote an incredible piece on why he loves Sergio but hates Fiat.

Totally agree with you on the Fezza hype though - with only a 10% free float and trophy asset status it won't be trading on fundamentals.

Yes, he's been the chief moaner for as long as I can remember. But, happily, I can remember Fiat SpA at 4EUR too. I don't think the score is 1-0, put it that way.

The best thing about Fiat is it's transparent: you can see what they want to do. Whether it can actually be done is another thing, and whether it will firmly stick at the current price is another. I got out once already because it was overvalued. So far, though, it's good.

[DonkeyApple]

egomeister said:

Oakey said:

Quindell just seems to be the gift that keeps on giving... I belive their 2013 'profit' of £83million has been readjusted to a loss of £68million and reported net assets of £668million are now £446million

I had a nose at one of the boards yesterday, unbelievably there are still people defending them! Having said that I suppose it could be trolling but surely no-one could maintain that level of apparent stupidity for so long unless they genuine.

It's staggering isn't it!!!!


I wonder if S&G will be launching a suit over the junk they bought?

[CRB14]

DonkeyApple said:

It's staggering isn't it!!!!


I wonder if S&G will be launching a suit over the junk they bought?

Not just them but 300 - 500 ordinary shareholders are pursuing action too.

[trashbat]

You missed all the exciting bits - the SFO are investigating! Even though we kind of knew already.

[CRB14]

I just read that tonight. I've also just been having a chuckle at the LSE board. Many believe it's all done and out in the open so time for a clean slate. My view is this is just getting going. The SFO don't mess about.

[DonkeyApple]

It'll be interesting if they will be able to carry out the proposed cap dist if there are active criminal investigations and also lawsuits. I would have thought that any such attempt would be halted.

But it is always interesting to see how many small cap shareholders so willingly become complicit in frauds and market manipulation when they invest more they can afford in a company.

The punters running those blogs are plain guilty of attempted market manipulation as are many of those Twitter accounts.

And I seem to recall that Vince Cable actively supported the fraud in the run up to the election to try and win some votes, like he actively supported incompetant corporate debt monkeys who whinged when RBS wanted the money back that they'd been using to live well beyond their means playing the big businessman.

[egomeister]

Early bloodbath for QPP - buying opportunity!

[p1stonhead]

egomeister said:

Early bloodbath for QPP - buying opportunity!

I love some of the message board with the fans on them.

Some actually thought it would rocket today because they have good cash reserves. The loss of profits 'would be overlooked'.

Unbelievable.

[Oakey]

Yeah, some of the faithful were predicting a share price of about £1.80. Ha!

[trashbat]

It amazes me that it remains so high. A 30% drop might be remarkable but in the history of Quindell is pretty much normal. A measure of the idiots propping it up, I guess.

There's some interesting Alphaville pieces on the matter.